One-Fifth of the Nation: America’s First Suburbs in Transition · 2016-07-21 · New York’s...

THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM

Metropolitan Policy ProgramBruce Katz, Director

The Brookings Institution

Suburban Evolution…Finding SolutionsFebruary 7, 2005

One-Fifth of the Nation:America’s First Suburbs in Transition


What are First Suburbs?


I

What has happened in First Suburbs nationally and in New York over the last 50 years?II

What does this mean for Long Island?III

What is the role of current federal and state policies and what is a First Suburban policy agenda?IV


What are First Suburbs?I

Developed first after their central cities

Comprise a significant portion of the country’s population

Vary dramatically across regions


These places generally developed first after their central cities

Many, like Long Island, date back to the 1920s and 1930s

Thought of as the “inner-ring” of suburbs that developed before the wave of suburban growth of the past 50 years

Also known as close-in suburbs, older suburbs, first-tier communities, trolley car suburbs, industrial boroughs, mature suburbs, and working class suburbs

Post-war development in the suburbs of Long Island (Source: Rauch Foundation)


How were First Suburbs selected for our study?

• They existed in 1950 as counties that were part of 1950 ‘standard metropolitan areas’ (SMAs)

• They were in a metro area with a large central city

• Data for the central city is not included if such existed within the county


In Onondaga County the First Suburbs are defined as those outside (or excluding) Syracuse

Onondaga County

Syracuse

Onondaga County Suburbs

2000 PopulationOnondaga County 458,336Syracuse 147,306Onondaga County Suburbs 311,030

Example:


There are 64 First Suburban counties found throughout the nation.


Nine First Suburbs are located in the West and Southwest

Maricopa County, AZ

San Diego County, CA

Orange County, CA

Los Angeles County, CA

Alameda County, CA

Sacramento County, CA

San Mateo County, CA

King County, WA

Pierce County, WA


Six are found in the South and Southeast

Dallas County, TX

Harris County, TX

Jefferson County, AL

Fulton County, GA

Hillsborough County, FL

Dade County, FL


Many are found in the Midwest…

Examples:Cuyahoga County, OHFranklin County, OHWayne County, MIOakland County, MIMarion County, INMilwaukee County, WIHennepin County, MNCook County, ILSt. Louis County, MO


…and even more exist in the Northeast

Examples:Allegheny County, PALackawanna County, PABaltimore County, MDArlington County, VAFairfield County, CTMiddlesex County, MAProvidence County, RIBergen County, NJHudson County, NJ


Monroe County, NY

Onondaga County, NY

Westchester County, NY

Erie County, NY

Suffolk County, NY

Nassau County, NY

… including five here in New York.

Note: Suffolk is included in this presentation but is not part of the larger analysis.




Comprise a significant portion of the country’s population



First Suburbs account for almost 20 percent of the entire U.S. population

Over 50 million people live in First Suburbs

First Suburbs 52,544,242 people 18.7% of United States


First Suburbs are especially important in New York, where they account for over a quarter of the state’s population

Almost 5 million New Yorkers live in First Suburbs

New York First Suburbs 4,965,503 people 26.2% of the state





Cities within First Suburban Counties(Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Yonkers)855,813 people 4.5% of the state





Cities within First Suburban Counties(Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Yonkers)855,813 people 4.5% of the state

New York City 8,008,278 people 42.2% of the state




Comprise a significant portion of the county’s population



Since 1950, the majority of population growth in First Suburbs has occurred in Sunbelt states

Source: Brookings Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

Population growth, 1950-2000Growth

Rank First Suburb Percent Growth, 1950-2000

1 Orange County, CA 1216%2 Maricopa County, AZ 678%3 Dade County, FL 669%4 San Diego County, CA 615%5 Harris County, TX 587%6 Sacramento County, CA 485%7 Dallas County, TX 471%8 Hillsborough County, FL 455%9 Montgomery County, MD 431%10 Hennepin County, MN 374%


While the slowest population growth has occurred in the Northeast and Midwest


Population growth, 1950-2000Slow-

Growth Rank

First Suburb Percent Growth, 1950-2000

1 Lackawanna County, PA 3.8%2 Hudson County, NJ 5.9%3 Essex County, NJ 11.3%4 Allegheny County, PA 13.0%5 St. Clair County, IL 24.3%6 Delaware County, PA 33.0%7 Providence County, RI 37.3%8 Arlington County, VA 39.9%9 Union County, NJ 40.9%10 Trumbull County, OH 41.7%


More recent figures reinforce the stark regional differences, with the Sunbelt dominating growth in the last two decades


Population growth, 1980-2000Growth

Rank First Suburb Percent Growth, 1980-2000

1 Maricopa County, AZ 143.4%2 Fulton County, GA 142.3%3 Hillsborough County, FL 85.3%4 Harris County, TX 77.7%5 San Diego County, CA 61.3%6 Sacramento County, CA 60.8%7 Dallas County, TX 57.9%8 Pierce County, WA 55.1%9 King County, WA 51.3%10 Montgomery County, MD 50.8%


… and population loss occurring in the Rust Belt


Population growth, 1980-2000Slow-

Growth Rank

First Suburb Percent Growth, 1980-2000

1 Allegheny County, PA -7.70%2 Trumbull County, OH -6.92%3 St. Clair County, IL -4.28%4 Wayne County, MI -2.17%5 Lackawanna County, PA -2.08%6 Cuyahoga County, OH -0.97%7 Delaware County, PA -0.75%8 Essex County, NJ -0.34%9 Erie County, NY 0.00%10 Nassau County, NY 0.98%

Only 1 of the 10 slowest growing First Suburbs has experienced positivepopulation growth since 1980




I





In the 1950s and 1960s First Suburbs grew more rapidly than their large central cities and the nation. Today, their population growth lags the nation.

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

First Suburbs Their Central Cities United States


Population growth rates, 1950-2000

Population


New York’s First Suburbs, including the two counties in Long Island, have experienced little growth over the past 20 years, ranking near the bottom among all First Suburbs.


Population growth rates, 1980-2000

Growth Rank First Suburb Percent Growth,

1980-20001 Maricopa County, AZ 143.4%2 Fulton County, GA 142.3%3 Hillsborough County, FL 85.3%4 Harris County, TX 77.7%5 San Diego County, CA 61.3%32 Monroe County, NY 12.0%36 Suffolk County, NY 10.5%40 Westchester County, NY 8.36%47 Onondaga County, NY 5.9%57 Nassau County, NY 1.0%58 Erie County, NY 0.0%61 Lackawanna County, PA -2.1%62 Wayne County, MI -2.2%63 St. Clair County, IL -4.3%64 Trumbull County, OH -6.9%65 Allegheny County, PA -7.7%

All First Suburbs 158.6%United States 85.9%

Population


In general the share of First Suburban residents who are older than 65 has been increasing, surpassing that of central cities in 2000


Percent of population age 65 and over, 1950-2000

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000


Aging


All of New York’s First Suburbs have higher concentrations of elderly than the U.S. (except Suffolk County)


Percent of population age 65 and over, 2000

Rank First Suburb Percent of Population 65 and Over

1 Lackawanna County, PA 19.1%2 Allegheny County, PA 18.3%3 Cuyahoga County, OH 17.2%4 Erie County, NY 17.0%5 Milwaukee County, WI 16.5%16 Nassau County, NY 15.0%24 Monroe County, NY 14.3%26 Onondaga County, NY 14.3%30 Westchester County, NY 13.7%49 Suffolk County, NY 11.8%61 Arlington, County, VA 9.4%62 Prince George's County, MD 7.7%63 Dallas County, TX 7.4%64 Fulton County, GA 7.1%65 Harris County, TX 6.1%


Aging


First Suburbs have become much more diverse; racial and ethnic minorities now comprise one-third of the population of First Suburbs


Percent of First Suburban population other than Non-Hispanic White, 1980-2000Racial/Ethnic Minorities Non-Hispanic White

1980 1990 2000

16% 24% 33%

Diversity


More than 20 percent of residents in the First Suburbs of Long Island are people of color, slightly less diverse than the U.S. and First Suburbs’ average


Percent of population other than non-Hispanic White, 2000

Rank First Suburb Population Other Than Non-Hispanic White

1 Dade County, FL 77.6%2 Prince George's County, MD 75.7%3 Los Angeles County, CA 68.2%4 Hudson County, NJ 57.0%5 Alameda County, CA 53.2%

20 Westchester County, NY 32.3%24 Nassau County, NY 26.0%31 Suffolk County, NY 21.2%54 Monroe County, NY 9.0%60 Erie County, NY 6.3%61 Onondaga County, NY 6.2%62 Summit County, OH 6.1%63 Stark County, OH 6.0%64 Lackawanna County, PA 5.1%65 Berks County, PA 4.9%


Diversity


The foreign-born population in First Suburbs grew by 262 percent since 1970, faster than their central cities and faster than thenational rate of 225 percent.


Foreign-born population, 1970-2000

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

1970 1980 1990 2000

First Suburbs Their Central Cities

Immigration


By 2000, over 17% of First Suburban residents were foreign-born, compared to 11% of the national population


Foreign-born population, 2000

Rank First Suburb Percent Foreign-Born

1 Dade County, FL 49.29%2 Hudson County, NJ 41.48%3 Los Angeles County, CA 33.65%4 San Mateo County, CA 32.26%5 Orange County, CA 29.86%

11 Westchester County, NY 21.14%15 Nassau County, NY 17.86%28 Suffolk County, NY 11.20%37 Monroe County, NY 7.31%49 Onondaga County, NY 4.73%51 Erie County, NY 4.57%61 St. Clair County, IL 2.13%62 Trumbull County, OH 1.82%63 Lackawanna County, PA 1.80%64 Stark County, OH 1.79%65 Madison County, IL 1.27%


Immigration


-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

1980s 1990s


Real household incomes in First Suburbs remained stagnant in the 1990s; in stark contrast to the 1980s.


Real growth rates in household income for the 1980s and 1990s (income adjusted to year 2000 dollars)

7.7%8.3%

5.7%

1.1%

4.0%

0% Income Growth for First Suburbs

Income


With the exception of the Erie County suburbs, all of New York’sFirst Suburbs saw real income slip in the 1990s


Real growth rates in household income for the 1990s (with incomes adjusted to year 2000 dollars)

Rank First Suburb Percent Real Income Growth

1 San Mateo County, CA 13.2%2 Maricopa County, AZ 12.6%3 Pierce County, WA 11.5%4 Marion County, IN 10.3%5 Fulton County, GA 9.8%

32 Erie County, NY 2.0%43 Westchester County, NY -0.4%46 Suffolk County, NY -1.1%49 Nassau County, NY -1.4%53 Onondaga County, NY -2.1%59 Monroe County, NY -4.4%61 Providence County, RI -4.5%62 New Haven County, CT -4.6%63 Prince George's County, MD -4.6%64 Hartford County, CT -6.8%65 Los Angeles County, CA -7.2%

United States 4.0%All First Suburbs 0.0%

Income


While low, poverty rates in First Suburbs have been steadily rising despite a slight decrease in the rates of their metro areas.


Percent of people below poverty line, 1970-2000

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

1970 1980 1990 2000

First Suburbs Their Central Cities Their Metro Areas

Poverty


But poverty rates in First Suburbs vary by race and ethnicity; blacks and Hispanics are two and three times more likely to be poor than whites.


Percent of people below poverty line, 1970-2000

0.00%

4.00%

8.00%

12.00%

16.00%

20.00%

White Black Hispanic

6.2%

15.4%17.2%

Poverty


0.0%

1.0%

2.0%3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

1970 1980 1990 2000

Neighborhoods of concentrated poverty have been increasing in First Suburbs, especially those with poverty rates of 20 percent of higher.

Source: Brookings Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data; Geolytics Neighborhood Change Database (NCDB)

Percent of Census tracts in First Suburbs with poverty rates of 20% or higher, 1970-2000

2.7%

4.7%

6.6%

8.4%

Tracts with 30% poverty rate



Poverty


But in New York, including Long Island, very little concentratedpoverty exists.

Source: Brookings Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data; Geolytics Neighborhood Change Database (NCDB)

Percent of Census tracts in First Suburbs with poverty rates of 20% or higher, 2000

Rank First Suburb Percent of Tracts with Poverty Rate of 20% or More

65 St. Clair County, IL 30.9%64 Miami-Dade County, IL 28.5%63 Los Angeles County, CA 26.9%62 Hampden County, MA 19.3%61 Providence County, RI 19.0%54 Westchester County, NY 5.9%52 Erie County, NY 3.9%49 Nassau County, NY 1.4%35 Monroe County, NY 1.0%27 Suffolk County, NY 0.9%1 San Mateo County, CA 0.0%1 Marion County, IN 0.0%1 Montgomery County, MD 0.0%1 Hennepin County, MN 0.0%1 Onondaga County, NY 0.0%1 Franklin County, OH 0.0%1 Bucks County, PA 0.0%1 Lackawanna County, PA 0.0%1 Arlington County, VA 0.0%

All First Suburbs 8.4%

Poverty


Use of public transportation for commuting among all First Suburban residents has declined over 30 years from already low levels


Percent of workers 16 and over who commute using public transportation, 1970-2000

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

1970 1980 1990 2000


Commuting


In contrast, public transit use in Long Island and Westchester County far exceeds the national and First Suburban averages.


Percent of workers 16 and over who commute using public transportation, 2000

Rank First SuburbPercent of

Commuters Using Public Transit, 2000

1 Hudson County, NJ 29.97%2 Arlington, County, VA 23.31%3 Westchester County, NY 19.75%4 Essex County, NJ 15.78%5 Nassau County, NY 15.72%20 Suffolk County, NY 6.83%49 Erie County, NY 1.16%54 Onondaga County, NY 0.93%55 Monroe County, NY 0.84%61 Berks County, PA 0.53%62 Macomb County, MI 0.50%63 Oakland County, MI 0.46%64 Jefferson County, AL 0.33%65 Trumbull County, OH 0.25%

United States 4.73%All First Suburbs 4.18%

Commuting


Like the U.S. as a whole, the share of college graduates has steadily increased in First Suburbs over the last 30 years; and the share remains larger than that of their central cities and metros.


Percent of those age 25 and over with a BA, 1970-2000

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

1970 1980 1990 2000


Education


The First Suburbs of Long Island outperform the nation in BA attainment rates


Percent of those age 25 and over with a BA, 2000

Rank First Suburb BA Attainment Rate, 2000

1 Arlington County, VA 60.2%2 Montgomery County, MD 54.6%3 Fulton County, GA 48.4%4 Westchester County, NY 45.1%5 Fairfield County, CT 44.4%

17 Monroe County, NY 35.4%18 Nassau County, NY 35.4%29 Onondaga County, NY 30.6%39 Suffolk County, NY 27.5%41 Erie County, NY 27.1%61 St. Clair County, IL 19.3%62 Madison County, IL 19.2%63 Lake County, IN 17.7%64 Macomb County, MI 17.6%65 Trumbull County, OH 14.5%


Education




I





In general, First Suburbs in Long Island face a number of challenges.

1. Very little population growth

2. A relatively high share of older Americans

3. Shrinking household incomes

4. Slight increase in poverty and concentrated poverty


Long Island also faces some other threats to its ability to remain competitive.

1. Aging and obsolete infrastructure

4. Aging homes and deteriorating real estate

5. Underutilized and fragmented commercial land

2. Struggling business and retail corridors

3. Fiscal stress and high tax burdens


But like many First Suburbs, Long Island possesses many assets and opportunities

1. Home to a large share of the state’s population and a good share of educated workers.

2. Quality housing design and construction

3. Convenience and location

4. Established infrastructure (especially transit)

5. Potential for bi-county collaboration

Long Island Railroad




I





Current state and federal policies generally don’thelp First Suburbs

Sometimes policies that set the rules of development and governance actually undermine First Suburbs

The focus is often on central cities or newer suburbs, particularly exurbs or newly developing places

First Suburbs in Policy “Blind-Spot”


Current state and federal policies generally don’thelp First Suburbs

1. States do not provide enough fiscal support to First Suburbs

2. Federal housing policy is not designed to meet the housing maintenance and redevelopment needs of first suburbs

3. Federal and state policies neglect a vital element of First Suburbs’ population: working families

4. Federal and state policies facilitate sprawl, outmigration and the concentration of poverty

First Suburbs in Policy “Blind-Spot”


A federal and state policy agenda for First Suburbs

Expand Opportunities for Working Families and Neighborhoods

3

1

2

5

Level the Fiscal Playing Field

4

Fix the Basics

Create Neighborhoods of Choice and Connection

Curb Sprawl and Promote

Reinvestment

Grow the Middle Class


www.brookings.edu/metro

One-Fifth of the Nation: America’s First Suburbs in Transition · 2016-07-21 · New York’s...

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