One Company, Two Compelling Investment … Company Two Compelling Investment Opportunities ... ,...

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TSX:Ni October 2014 WorldClass, ShovelReady, Nickel Sulphide Project HighestQuality Frac Sand Product, Cash Flow, Contracts in Place TSX:Ni One Company, Two Compelling Investment Opportunities

Transcript of One Company, Two Compelling Investment … Company Two Compelling Investment Opportunities ... ,...

Page 1: One Company, Two Compelling Investment … Company Two Compelling Investment Opportunities ... , United Industrial Services ... (4 million tons/parcel)

TSX:Ni

October 2014

World‐Class,Shovel‐Ready, Nickel Sulphide Project

Highest‐Quality Frac Sand Product, Cash Flow, Contracts in Place

TSX:Ni

One Company, Two Compelling Investment Opportunities

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Victory NickelCompany Profile

Ni:TSX – Share Capital StructureShares Outstanding (10:1 consolidation 17/09/14) ~57.5 million

Fully Diluted Shares* ~79.7 million

Market Capitalization (October 6, 2014) $22.0 million

Debt (incl. $4 M secured line of credit; $6 M unsecured convertible notes)

$10.0 million

Major Shareholders

• Nuinsco Resources Ltd. 10.0%• A&M International 9.5%• Jien International 9.2%• Sea Shell Limited 8.4%• Management & Directors 2.0%

*~2.8 M options ($0.70 average exercise price); warrants ~11.3 M ($0.35 exercise price); ~2 M ($1.00 exercise price); ~6.5 M from convertible note ($1.00 conversion price).

Victory Silica Ltd.

(100%)

Victory Nickel Inc.

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Frac Sand Boom Continues –Canadian Growth to Outpace US

Multi‐Phased Business Plan to Grow Frac Sand Production Phase 1 complete Spot sales on‐going 20% of capacity contracted Other contracts under discussion Guidance: Q3 operating cash flow Ownership of Wisconsin and Manitoba

frac sand resources

Extreme valuation discount Strong stock performance for US peers; 

more advanced than most Canadian peers

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One CompanyTwo Compelling Investment Opportunities

Well Positioned for Resurgence in Nickel Market

Four Nickel Projects in Canada:

Over 1 billion lbs nickel in M&I resource

Flagship Minago Project in Manitoba: 

Feasibility study complete, permitted for development

Frac Sand Co‐Product at Minago

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Company HistoryFrom Nickel to Frac Sand

2007: Victory Nickel created with 3 nickel projects, including Minago

2009:  Feasibility study for Minago: Significant frac sand by‐product value identified

2011:  Minago permitted for production

2011‐12: Meaningful decline in nickel prices

2012:  Victory Silica created to help unlock value of frac sand at Minago

2013:  A multi‐phased frac sand business created, independent of, yet complimentary to Minago

Q1 2014: Proof of concept: first frac sand sales from Seven Persons (7P) Plant, Alberta

Q3 2014: Completion of commissioning at 7P, spot sales on‐going, first sales contract in place, option signed to acquire Wi frac sand resource

Frac Sand

Nickel

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Very strong market fundamentals for frac sand Minimum 16% annual demand growth forecast for Canada 

New frac sand producer with extreme value Operating cash flow: sales on‐going; plant commissioning complete

Experienced management: frac sand development, operating and marketing expertise

Strong peer group valuation & market performance 

Large domestic resource: Minago a strategic asset

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Why Victory Silica?Building a Business Independent of Minago

On the way to becoming the largest supplier of the highest quality imported and domestic frac sand for delivery in Canada

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Experienced ManagementVictory Silica Limited

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René R. Galipeau /Chairman35+ years mining experience with Hudson Bay, Breakwater Resources, Lac Minerals, Rio Algom. Current Vice‐Chair & CEO of Victory Nickel.

Ken Murdock /CEO & DirectorEngineer with over 25 years experience in the aggregate/construction & oilfield materials/frac sand  industries. In addition to operating as an independent consultant in Canada and Wisconsin, frac sand industry experience includes Canfrac Sands (operations), United Industrial Services  (design, permitting, construction, operation and marketing of a silica sand project in Peace River) and Lafarge Cement. 

David Frey /Vice‐President, LogisticsExtensive experience in the logistic industry in Alberta. Held numerous operations, sales and management roles with several companies including NarumCarriers, Tri‐Line Carriers and KleysenTransport.

Phillip Birmingham /General Manager, Seven Persons Frac Sand FacilityDiverse background, including seven years with the British Army's Royal Mechanical and Electrical Engineers and operations and management positions with Crane Canada, Allwest Compressor Services and most recently as General Manager with 3R Sand Ltd. (the previous operator of the Seven Persons frac sand facility.

Troy Bergen /Plant Manager, Seven Persons Frac Sand FacilityOperated the Seven Persons frac sand facility between 2008 and 2010 with previous owner 3R Sand Ltd. Prior to that, he was Operations Manager with Clean Earth Environmental Ltd.

Jeff Bradley /Marketing & Logistics Representative10 years of operational and sales experience in Alberta’s oil &gas sector, including Cathedral Energy Services, Aaron Drilling, Colter Production Services and Opsco Energy Industries

Alison Sutcliffe /Chief Financial Officer, Sean Stokes /Corporate Secretary(See Victory Nickel Appendix)

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Shale Gas / Tight Oil Revolution Frac Sand Boom

Unconventional ‘shale gas’ and ‘tight oil’ previously uneconomic to recover at a large scale

Efficiency gains in horizontal drilling and the introduction of ‘fracking’ helped unlock vast natural gas and oil resources

The rapid implementation of technology changed the North American energy landscape, with a “sand boom” being a resulting factor

“Unconventional gas production reached 15% of worldwide production in 2010, and is expected to rise to 80% by 2040.” (The Globe & Mail, August 21, 2013)

The Freedonia Group reports that frac sand consumption in North America increased by 323% between 2007 and 2012, and is expected to increase by 73% by 2017

Frac sand is an effective way to participate in North America’s rampant ‘unconventional’ oil and gas production growth

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What is ‘Fracking’? Frac Sand?Not all sand makes frac sand! 

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Hydraulic fracturing or ‘fracking’ is a technique used in the development of oil & gas formations to increase flow and extend well life. Proppant (such as frac sand) holds or ‘props’ the formation open, increases porosity, and increases oil/gas flow to the wellhead

Frac sand must meet unique API specifications such as mineralogy, roundness and strength for use in the oil & gas industry as a proppant

Victory Silica’s 

Frac Sand

30/50 20/40

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North American Proppant Demand (million tons)

% Annual Growth

Item 2007 2012 2017 2007‐2012 2012‐2017

Total Demand 6.98 29.55 51.20 33.5 11.6

By Country: U.S. 6.13 26.63 44.97 34.1 11.1

Canada 0.85 2.92 6.23 28.1 16.3

By Type: Sand 6.14 26.78 46.95 34.3 11.9

Ceramic 0.82 2.64 4.02 26.3 8.8

Other 0.02 0.14 0.23 43.9 10.6Source: The Freedonia Group, Inc. – August 2013

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Proppant / Frac Sand MarketHistorical & Projected Demand –August 2013

Double digit annual proppant demand growth expectedwith Canada leading the way

Oh, Canada!

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Proppant / Frac Sand MarketDemand Already More Robust Than Expected?

Modified from Source: Raymond James “North American Sand Rush” August 19, 2014

Increasing Frac IntensityIncreasing # of Wells

North American Proppant Demand Model

2017 Freedonia Report Estimate, August 2013

Increasing Sand Intensity

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Strong market fundamentals pushing US frac sand prices higher. Canada robust coming out of ‘Spring Break‐up’

Frac Sand Price IndexFrac Sand Measured as a Component of PPI

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Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, B.C., North Dakota

North American Shale BasinsInitial Supply Opportunities

Winnipeg

Minago

Wisconsin Mine

Medicine Hat (Seven Persons)

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Victory Silica Business PlanPhasedApproach –Clear Path for Growth

Phase 1: Market Entry

Seven Persons (dry) Plant: processing infrastructure in Alberta (500 ktpa)

Ship contracted (wet) sand from Wisconsin 

Strategic storage capacity

Phase 3: Growth

Winnipeg (dry) plant: processing infrastructure in Manitoba (1,040 ktpa)

Site identified with favourablelogistics (CN, CP)

Initially supplied from Wisconsin

Minago Sand

Longer‐term upside

Currently looking at smaller pit configuration to target fracsand only

Phase 2: Vertical Integration

Wisconsin mine JV including wash plant ownership/frac sand property option

Security of sand supply/quality control

Margin enhancement

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Processing purchased import wet sand (concentrate) from Wisconsin

Seven Persons Plant Fully‐functioning sand plant on 22.4 acres

22,000 tons product storage capacity

$5.36 M capex to take dry plant capacity to 500,000 tpa (complete)

Commissioning complete 20% of production capacity secured under 

contract; 50% being sold on spot basis

Operating cash flow expected Q3/2014

Full production expected Q4/2014

Phase 1: Market EntrySeven Persons Plant – Medicine Hat, Alberta

Phase 1

Annual Sales Capacity 500,000 tons

Estimated Margin $25/ton

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Phase 1:Milestones

Wisconsin sand purchase agreement Sand washing agreement Wisconsin transload agreement Rail agreement Rail siding agreement Railcar leasing agreement Seven Persons trucking agreement Equipment leasing agreements Plant construction completed First sand deliveries from Wisconsin First frac sand product sale Plant commissioning complete Sales on‐going 20% of sales capacity under contract Acquisition of frac sand resource in 

Wisconsin Another 30% of capacity being 

targeted for sale under contract

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Phase 2: Vertical IntegrationWisconsin Mine Joint Venture

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Entered into option agreement to acquire Wisconsin frac sand property ‐ completed

Negotiate 50:50 JV with Wisconsin supplier to secure sand supply, enhance margins

JV partner’s contribution: Permitted properties with highest‐quality Wisconsin sand (4 million tons/parcel)

Victory’s contribution: Finance and build frac sand wet plant at Wisconsin mine (will be moveable to other mines)

Phase 2 

Capex ~US$5.0 million

Annual Sales Capacity 500,000 tons

Estimated Margin $>25/ton

Source: Wisconsin Geological and Natural History Survey

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Phase 3: GrowthWinnipeg Processing Site

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Build processing facility in Winnipeg Lease existing rail‐supported industrial 

site

Construct new dry plant – 18 mos. from start

Supply from Wisconsin and area (Minago longer‐term supply option)

Target Western Canada (CN) and US Bakken (CP, BNSF) markets

Phase 3 

Capex ~US$30 million

Working Capital ~US$15 million

Annual Sales Capacity 1,040,000 tons

Estimated Margin $>25/ton

Winnipeg

Wisconsin

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Victory SilicaPeer Group Performance

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Preferred Sands/Winn Bay                  $200 M acquisition Jan. 2012                       (private)

US Silica HoldingsIPO: Raised $200 M Feb. 2012                                          ($3.9 B market cap)

Hi‐Crush Partners   IPO: Raised $225 M Aug. 2012                                              ($2.3 B market cap)

Emerge Energy Services                         IPO: Raised $140 M May 2013                                                      ($2.9 B market cap)

Fairmount Minerals                     ”Explores $1 billion IPO…could value the mining company at over $6 billion”                  June 2 2014 (Reuters) 

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Calendar Year 2013($US)

Emerge Energy Services 

(NYSE: EMES)

Hi‐Crush Partners

(NYSE: HCLP)

US Silica Holdings

(NYSE: SLCA)

Victory Silica (Forecast)

Phase 1,2 Phase 3 Phase 1,2,3

Cash Raised on IPOCapex Requirements

$140 M $225 M $200 M$ 10 M $ 30 M $ 40 M

Frac Sand Tons Sold 2,651,000 1,849,075 2,960,800 500,000 1,040,000 1,540,000

Adj. EBITDAAdj. EBITDA Frac Sand Only

$85 M$69 M

$69 M$69 M

$161 M $116 M $14.5 M2,4 $26 M $40.5 M2,4

Forecast EBITDA / Ton SoldActual EBITDA / Ton Sold $26.21 $37.41 $39.03

$29.002$34.221

$25.00$34.221

$26.302$34.221

Market Cap (Oct. 6, 2014)Enterprise Value (EV)

$2,423 M$2,587 M

$1,700 M$1,868 M

$2,915 M$3,107 M

$22.0 M$29.3 M

‐‐

‐‐

2015E EBITDA $196 M3 $169 M3 $335 M3 $14.5 M2,4 ‐ ‐

EV/2015E EBITDA 15.7x 14.7x 12.1x 2.6x2,4

Implied Enterprise Value at 14.2x1 EV/2015E EBITDA@ EBITDA/ton estimated by Victory Silica(Does not include Phase 3 or margin enhancement – for illustration purposes only)

$ 206 M

1 ‐ average of Emerge, Hi‐Crush, and US Silica2‐ includes Phase 2 margin improvement3‐ Source: Cowen & Company, Q2‐Q3 2014 estimates4 ‐ before Nuinsco debt repayment

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Victory Silica Relative and Implied Valuation

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Victory Silica Select Canadian Frac Sand Companies

Modified from Source: Raymond James “North American Sand Rush” August 19, 2014

Phase 1,2

Phase 3MB/WI 16/30 -100

16/30 -100

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Minago ProjectNickel / Frac Sand Co‐Production

One of Canada’s largest undeveloped sulphide nickel resources

Positive feasibility study completed; permitted for production

Frac sand a significant value driver: US$2.90/lb Ni in co‐product value based on feasibility study

Superb location: Manitoba; road, rail, power access

11.2 million tonne frac sand resource, 2 billion tonne potential

Potential for smaller, less capital intensive pit configuration to target frac sand only

Valuable “CALL OPTION ” on nickel at $10.00/lb+

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Minago ProjectCo‐Product: Frac Sand

Feasibility Study Highlights

11.2 million tonnes marketable fracsand in pit footprint alone

Mined over first three years

Sales over 10 years

Mine gate margin per tonne ~$63

Annual net revenue ~$70 M 

Processing cost/tonne = $6.50

Co‐product value per pound of nickel = $4.04 (US$3.68); optimized: $3.18 (US$2.90)

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Frac Sand

Nickel

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Minago ProjectFrac Sand Potential

Existing resource within current pit shell: 15 Mt

Existing & proposed quarry leases: 75 Mt potential*

Proposed quarry exploration permits: 475 Mt potential*

Entire land package (mineral leases + mining claims): 2 Bt potential*

23*Company estimates, non-compliant

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Cash flow and robust cash flow growth: Initial sales made March 2014, plant commissioning complete, clear path forward

Strong peer group valuations and market performance: U.S. peers U.S. Silica, Hi‐Crush and Emerge Energy services

Large domestic frac sand resource: Minago a longer‐term strategic asset; potential for smaller, less capital intensive pit configuration to target frac sand only

Large property position in Wisconsin: Frac sand property option agreement provides security of supply

A sustained resurgence in nickel prices could have a meaningful impact on Victory Nickel’s valuation: currently investors have a ‘free call option’ on Minago’s advanced nickel sulphide project 24

Victory SilicaInvestment Summary

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The“Call Option” October 2014

Victory Nickel Inc.

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Company ProfileNickel Projects

Four Advanced Sulphide Nickel Projects

Over 1 billion pounds of nickel in Measured and Indicated resources and 300 million pounds of Inferred resources, NI 43‐101 compliant

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Minago ProjectThe Property

Well‐located

Sulphide nickel deposit

Exceptional metallurgy

Open pit and underground mining potential

Bankable feasibility study on open pit only

Exceptional exploration upside

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Minago ProjectReserves and Production Upside

Nose Deposit open pit:8.6‐year mine life

Nose Deposit U/G (inferred resource)

North Limb: Exploration target

Mineralization open to west, north and at depth

Combined resources projected mine life of <20 years

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Minago ProjectNickel Concentrate Assay

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Assay Component Unit ValueNi % 22.3Cu % 1.4Co % 0.46Pt g/t 2.47Pd g/t 6.31Au g/t 0.63Ag g/t 4.3Rh g/t 0.59S % 24.4Fe % 17.0

MgO % 10.4SiO2 % 12.7Al % 0.11As g/t 61.0Ba g/t 61.0Be g/t 0.10Bi g/t <20Ca % 2.0Cd g/t <4Cr g/t 410

Assay Component Unit ValueHg g/t <0.3K g/t 410Li g/t <5Mn g/t 270Mo g/t 22Na g/t 240P g/t 131Pb % 0.097Sb g/t <30Se g/t <40Sn g/t <20Sr g/t 40Ti g/t 200Tl g/t <30U g/t <60V g/t <20Y g/t <10Zn % 0.18Cl % 0.044F % 0.066

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Minago ProjectFeasibility Study Optimization

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Minago Sulphide Nickel Project: Economic Summary Comparison

Base CaseDec. 14, 20091

($million except % & yrs)

Base CaseJuly 19, 20111,2

($million except % & yrs)At Today’s Metal Prices

Undiscounted cash flow 917.7 1,418.4 951.3

NPV @ 8% 293.8 513.0 278.0

NPV @ 6% 402.6 669.3 392.6

IRR 17.7% 22.4% 16.5%

Pre‐Production Capital 593.0 585.1 558.0

1. Three‐year trailing average US$ metal prices and exchange rate as of market close December 10, 2009: Ni: $11.19/lb; Cu: $2.91/lb; Pd: $322.4/oz; Pt: $1,353.98/oz; Au: $836.25/oz; Co: $27.73/lb; Ag: $14.25/oz; $Can/$US exchange rate: 1.097

2. Updated resource

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Minago ProjectCost Summary

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C1Cash Cost Per lb Ni  Feasibility Study AfterOptimization

Net of Credits * US $1.94 (C$2.12) US $2.20 (C$2.41)

Metal By‐Product Credits

US $0.72 (C$0.79) US $0.77 (C$0.85)

Frac Sand By‐ProductValue

US $3.68 (C$4.04) US $2.90 (C$3.18)

Cash Cost per lb Nickel Before Credits 

US $6.34 (C$6.95) US $5.87 (C$6.44)

*Net C1 costs increase when metal production increases without corresponding frac sand increase (same size pit)

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René R. Galipeau /CEO & Director –Victory Nickel Inc.30+ years mining experience with Hudson Bay, Breakwater Resources, Lac Minerals, Rio Algom

Steve Harapiak /President & COO –Victory Nickel Inc.Engineer with 30+ years experience, including Hudson Bay, Noranda, Denison and CEO of Potash Corp. (Crown Corp.)

Alison Sutcliffe /VP Finance & CFO –Victory Nickel Inc.CA with 20+ years experience, most recently with Dundee Corp.

Paul L. Jones /VP Exploration –Victory Nickel Inc.Geologist and QP with 25+ years experience with more than 20 juniors

Sean Stokes /VP Corporate Affairs & Corporate Secretary –Victory Nickel Inc.20+ years finance, business development, communications experience, incl. Tiberon Minerals, Liberty Minerals, Scandinavian Minerals, Nuinsco Resources

David Mchaina /VP Environment & Sustainable Development –Victory Nickel Inc.Ph.D. with 20+ years experience, including Boliden, Westmin, Goldcorp

Victory NickelManagement Team

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TSX:Ni

Victory NickelQualified Independent Board

Cynthia Thomas /ChairMBA, 20+ years international mining and project finance, former Director Mining Investment Banking – ScotiaMcLeod

René R. Galipeau /CEO & Director 

Peter R. JonesEngineer, former CEO of Hudbay Minerals, 40+ years mining experience with Hudbay, Cominco, Cape Breton Development, Granduc Operating Co. and Adanac Molybdenum

Michael AndersonLawyer, nine years as General Counsel and Secretary with Denison Mines, previously a partner with Gowling Lafleur Henderson LLP, in‐house counsel with John Labatt, General Counsel for Swift Canadian

Roland Horst35 years mining experience as a CEO, banker, investment banker and geologist

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TSX:NiDisclaimer

Some of the statements contained in the following material may be "forward‐looking statements." All statements, other than statements ofhistorical fact, that address activities, events or developments that Victory Nickel believes, expects or anticipates will or may occur in the futureare forward‐looking statements. Forward‐looking statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "seek,""anticipate," "believe," "plan," "estimate," "expect," and "intend" and statements that an event or result "may," "will," "can," "should,""could," or "might" occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. These forward‐looking statements reflect the current expectations orbeliefs of Victory Nickel based on information currently available to Victory Nickel. Forward‐looking statements are subject to a number of risksand uncertainties that may cause the actual results of Victory Nickel to differ materially from those discussed in the forward‐looking statements,and even if such actual results are realized or substantially realized, there can be no assurance that they will have the expected consequences to,or effects on Victory Nickel. Factors that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from current expectations include, among otherthings, failure to successfully complete intended financings, capital and other costs varying significantly from estimates, production rates varyingfrom estimates, changes in world copper and/or gold markets, changes in equity markets, uncertainties relating to the availability and costs offinancing needed in the future, equipment failure, unexpected geological conditions, imprecision in resource estimates, success of futuredevelopment initiatives, competition, operating performance of facilities, environmental and safety risks, delays in obtaining or failure to obtainnecessary permits and approvals from government authorities, and other development and operating risks. Any forward‐looking statementspeaks only as of the date on which it is made and, except as may be required by applicable securities laws, Victory Nickel disclaims any intent orobligation to update any forward‐looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise. AlthoughVictory Nickel believes that the assumptions inherent in the forward‐looking statements are reasonable, forward‐looking statements are notguarantees of future performance and accordingly undue reliance should not be put on such statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein.

Victory Nickel resources are as follows: Minago: Measured: 11.1 million tonnes grading 0.56% Ni, Indicated: 43.1 million tonnes grading 0.51%Ni, Inferred: 14.6 million tonnes grading 0.53% Ni; Lynn Lake: Measured: 1.0 million tonnes grading 0.76% Ni, Indicated: 21.9 million tonnesgrading 0.56% Ni, Inferred: 8.1 million tonnes grading 0.51% Ni; Mel: Indicated: 4.3 million tonnes grading 0.88% Ni, Inferred: 1.0 million tonnesgrading 0.84% Ni; Lac Rocher: 0.29 million tonnes grading 1.23% Ni, Indicated: 0.51 million tonnes grading 1.05% Ni, inferred: 0.44 million tonnesgrading 0.65% Ni.

The mineral resources were estimated using the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum (CIM), CIM Standards on MineralResources and Reserves, Definitions and Guidelines prepared by the CIM Standing Committee on Reserve Definitions and adopted by CIMCouncil December 11, 2005.

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