Oncor Electric Delivery System 2015 Analysis of System Losses

WP/II-H-1.3/2 7 of 32

Oncor Electric Delivery System 2015 Analysis of System Losses

Exhibit 6 — Development of Loss Factors, Unadjusted

This exhibit calculates demand and energy losses and loss factors by specific voltage levels based on sales level requirements. The actual results reflect loads by level and summary totals of losses at that level, or up to that level, based on the results as shown in Exhibit 5. Finally, the es-timated values at generation are developed and compared to actual generation to obtain any difference or mismatch.

Exhibit 7 — Development of Loss Fa:dors, Adjusted

The adjusted loss factors are the results of adjusting Exhibit 6 for any difference. All differences between estimated and actual are prorated to each level based on the ratio of each level's total load plus losses to the system total. These new loss factors reflect an adjustment in losses due only to the MW and MWh mismatch.

Exhibit 8 — Adlusted Losses and Loss Factors by Facility

These calculations present an expanded summary detail of Exhibit 7 for each segment of the power system with respect to the flow of power and associated losses from the receipt of energy at the meter to the generation for the Oncor power system.

Exhibit 9 — Summary of Losses by Delivery Voltage

These calculations present a reformatted summary of losses presented in Exhibits 7 and 8 by power system delivery segment as calculated by voltage level of service based on reported metered sales..

MIK

14 4405

WP/II-H-1.3/2 Page 18 of 32


Appendix A

Results of 2015 Oncor Integrated Power System Loss Analysis

MIK

4406

d 1/d e 1/e

TOT TRANS 345,138,69 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000

PRIM SUBS 25 TO 4 1.00637 0.99367 1.00574 0.99429

PRIMARY 25 TO 4 1.02019 0.98021 1.01506 0.98517

SECONDARY 120/240 TO 1.03885 0.96261 1.03717 0.96416 477

CUMMULATIVE SALES EXPANSION FACTORS SERVICE KV DEMAND (Peak) ENERGY (Annual)

_ _


Ot4COR 2015 LOSS'ANALYSIS

ONCOR EXHIBIT 1

SUMMARY OF COMPANY DATA(Includes Losses)

ONCOR LOAD AT ERCOT PEAK - INPUT 22,679 MW

ANNUAL SYSTEM INPUT .106,435,000 MWH

ANNUAL SALES OUTPUT 102,972,872 MWH

SYSTEM LOSSES @ INPUT 3,462,128 or 3.25% SYSTEM LOSSES @ OUTPUT 3,462,128 or 3.36%

SYSTEM LOAD FACTOR 53.6%

SUMMARY OF LOS*SES - OUTPUT RESULTS

SERVICE KV --- MW.--- Input

% TOTAL --- MWH --- Input

% TOTAL

TRANS 345,138,69 0.0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

PRIM SUBS 25 TO 4 143.5 17.79% 607,273 17.54% 0.63% 0.57%

PRIMARY 25 TO 4 299.7 37.15% 942,056 27.21% 1.32% 0.89%

SECONDARY 120/240 TO 363.6 45.07% 1,912,799 55.25% .477 1.60% 1.80%

TOTAL 806.7 100.00% 3,462,128 100.00% 3.56%- 3.25%

SUMMARY OF LOSS FACTORS

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4413

ONCOR 2015 LOSS ANALYSIS

DEVELOFMENT of LOSS FACTORS UNADJUSTED.

DEMAND


EXHIBIT 6

LOSS FACTOR CUSTOMER LEVEL SALES MW

a

CALC LOSS TO LEVEL

b

SALES MW @ SUB INPUT

c

CUM PEAK EXPANSION FACTORS d 1/d

BULK LINES o.d 0.0 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 TRANS SUBS 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.00000 0.00000 TRANS LINES 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.00000 1.00000

TOTAL TRANS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 SUBTRANS 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.00000 1.00000 PRIM SUBS 420.0 2.7 422.7 1.00636 0.99368 PRIM LINES 1,568.8 31.7 1,600.4 1.02018 0.98022 SECONDARY 19 883.5 772.1 20 655.5 1.03883 0.96262

TOTALS 21,872.3 806.4 22,678.7

DEVELOPMENT of LOSS FACTORS UNADJUSTED

ENERGY

LOSS FACTOR CUSTOMER LEVEE SALES MWH

a

CALC LOSS TO LEVEL : b

SALES MWH @ SUB INPUT

c

CUM ANNUAL EXPANSION FACTORS d 1/d

BULK LINES 0 0 0 0.00000 0.00000 TRANS SUBS 0 :0 - 0 0.00000 0.00000 TRANS LINES 0 0 0 1.00000 1.00000

TOTAL TRANS 0 0 0 0.00000. 0.00000 SUBTRANS 0 0 0 1.00000 1.00000 PRIM SUBS 3,218,116 18,470 3,236,586 1.00574 0.99429 PRIM LINES 11,954,531 180,040 12,134,571 1.01506 0.98516 SECONDARY 87,800,225 3,264,284 91,064,509 1.03718 0.96415

TOTALS 102,972,872 3,462,794 106,435,666

ESTIMATED VALUES AT DIST SUB INPUT LOSS FACTOR AT VOLTAGE LEVEL BULK LINES TRANS SUBS TRANS LINES SUBTRANS SUBS SUBTRANS LINES PRIM SUBS PRIM LINES SECONDARY

SUBTOTAL

ACTUAL ENERGY

MISMATCH

% MISMATCH



DEVELOPMENT of LOSS FACTORS ADJUSTED DEMAND

EXHIBIT 7

LOSS FACTOR CUSTOMER SALES CALC LOSS LEVEL SALEŠ MW ADJUST TO LEVEL

a

SALES MW @ SUB INPUT

d .

CUM PEAK EXPANSION FACTORS

e f=1/e

BULK LINES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 TRANS SUBS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00000 0.00000 TRANS LINES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.00000 1.00000

TOTAL TRANS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.00boo o.00000 SUBTRANS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.00000 1.00000 PRIM SUBS 420.0 0.0 2.7 422.7 1.00637 0.99367 PRIM LINES , 1,568.8 0.0 317 1,600.5 1.02019 0.98021 SECONDARY 19 883.5 0.0 772.4 20 655.9 1.03885 0.96261

806.7 SYSTEM COMPOSITE TOTALS 21,872.3 0.0 806.7 22,679.0 1.03688 0.66443

DEVELOPMENT of LOSS FACTORS ADJUSTED ENERGY

LOSS FACTOR CUSTOMER SALES CALC LOSS SALES MWH CUM ANNUAL EXPANSION LEVEL SALES MWH ADJUST TO LEVEL @ SUB INPUT FACTORS

a d ' f=1/e

BULK LINES o o 0.00000 000000 TRANS SUBS o o 0.00000 0.00000 TRANS LINES o o 1.00000 1.00000

TOTAL TRANS , o 0.00000 0.00000 SUBTRANS o 1.00000 1.00000 PRIM SUBS 3,218,116 o 18,466 3,236,582 1.00574 0.99429 PRIM LINES 11,954,531 0 180,005 12,134,536 1.01506 0.98517 SECONDARY 87,800,225 0 3,263,656 91,063,881 1.03717 0.96416

3,462,128 SYSTEM COMPOSITE TOTALS 102,972,872 0 3,462,128 106,435,000 1.03362 - 0.96747

ESTIMATED VALUEŠ AT DIST SUB INPUT LOSS FACTOR AT VOLTAGE LEVEL BULK LINES TRANS SUBS TRANS LINES SUBTRANS SUBS SUBTRANS LINES PRIM SUBS PRIM LINES SECONDARY

ACTUAL ENERGY

MISMATCH

% MISMATCH

MW

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20,655.86 91,063,881

22,679.00 106,435,000

22,679.00 106,435,000

(0.00) (0)

0.00% 0.00%

4414



Adjusted Losses and Loss Factors by Facility

Unadjusted Losses by Segment MW

,` - Unadjusted M1A11-I

EXHIBIT 8

Unadjusted Service Drop Losses 75 78 75.78 276,161 276,161 Secondary Losses 37 76 37.76 ' 87,940 87,940 Line Transformer Losses 249.89 249.89 1,549,066 1,549,066 Priinary Line Losses 299 56 299.56 942,238 942,238 Distnbution Substation Losses 143.43 143.43 607,390 607,390 Subtransmission Losses 0.00 0.00 0 0 Transmission System Losses 0.00 0.00 0 0 Total 806.40 806.40 3,462,794 3,462,794

Mismatch Allocation by Segment MW MWH Note adjusting

Service Drop Losses -0.03 53 53 Secondary Losses -0.02 17 17 Line Transformer Losses -0.11 298 298 Primary Line Loises 10.13 181 181 Distribution Substation Losses -0.06 117 117 Subtransmission Losses 0 00 0 0 Transmission System Losses 0.00 '0 0 Total -0 34 666 666

666 Adjusted Losses by Segment

MW % of Total MWH % of Total Service Drop Losses 75.81 9 4% 276,108 8.0% Secondary Losses 37.77 4.7% 87,923 2 5% Line TransfOrmer Losses 249.99 31 0% 1,548,768 44.7% Primary Line Losses 299.68 37.1% 942,056 27 2% Distribution Substation Losses 143 49 17.8% 607,273 17 5% Subtransmission Losses 0.00 0 0% 0 0 0% Transmission System Losses 0 00 0 0% 0 0 0% Total 806.75 100 0% 3,462,128 100.0%

Loss FactOrs bY Segment Retail Sales from Service Drops

MW 19,883 47

MWH 87,800,225

Adiusted Service Drop Losses 75.81 276 108 Input to Service Drops 19,959 28 88,076,333 Service Drop Loss Factor 1.00381 1.00314

Output from Secondary 19,959.28 88,076,333 Adiusted Secondan/ Losses 37 77 87 923 Input to Secondary 19,997 05 88,164,255 Secondary Conductor Loss Factor 1.00189 1.00100 ,.

Output from Line Transformers 19,997 05 88,164,255 Adjusted Line Transformer Losses 249.99 1 548 768 Input to Line Transformers' 20,247 05 89,713,024 Line Transformer Loss Factor 1.01260 1.01757

Secondary Composite 1 01829 1 02179 Retail Sales from Primary 1,454.78 11,494,341 Req. Whls Sales from Primary 114 00 460,190 Input to Line Transformers 20,247 05 89 713 024 Output from Primary Lines 21,815.83 101,667,555 Adiusted Primary Line Losses 299.68 942 056 Input to Pnmary Lines 22,115 51 102,609,611 Primary Line Loss Factor 1.01374 1.00927

Output PI from Distribution Substations 22,115 51 102,609,611 Req. WhIs Sales from Substations 73 00 305,471 Retail Sales from Substations 347.00 2,912,645 TotalOutput from Distribution Substations 22,535.51 105,827,727 Adjusted Distribution Substation Losses 143.49 607 273 Input to Distribution Substations 22,679.00 106,435,000 Distribution Substation Loss Factor 1.00637 1.00574

Retail Sales at from SubTransmission 0 00 0 Req. Whls Sales froM SubTransmission 0 00 0 Input to Distribution Substations 0 00 0 Output from-SubTransmission 0.00 0 Adiusted SubTransmission_System Losses 0.00 0 Input to SubTransmission 0.00 0 SubTransmlision Loss Factor 1.00000 1.00000 Input to Distribution Substations 22,678.66 106,435,666 Retail Sales at from Transmission 0.00 0 Req. Mils Sales from Transrnission 0.00 0 Input Subtransmišsion 0.00 0 Output from Transmission 22,679 00 106,435,000 Adjusted Transmission System Losses 0.00 , 0 Input to Transmission 22,679.00 106,435,000 Transfnission Loss Factor 1.00000 1.00000

4415


1

DEMAND MW SUMMARY OF LOSSES AND LOSS FACTORS BY DELIVERY VOLTAGE EXHIBIT 9 PAGE 1 of 2

SERVICE SALES LOSSES SECONDARY PRIMARY SUBSTATION LEVEL MW

SERVICES 2 SALES 1'9,883.47 19,883.5 3 LOSSES 75.8 75.8 4 INPUT -:19,959 3 5 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.00381

6 SECONDARY 7 SALES 8 LOSSES 37.8 37.8 9 INPUT 19,997.1 10 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.00189

11 LINE TRANSFORMER 12 SALES 13 LOSSES 250.0 250 0 14 INPUT 20,247.0 15 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.01250

16 PRIMARY 17 SECONDARY 20,247 0 18 SALES 1566.78 1,568 8 19 LOSSES 299.7 278 1 21 6 20 INPUT 21 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.01374

22 SUBSTATION 23 PRIMARY 20,525.2 1,590 3 24 SALES 420 0 420 0 25 LOSSES 143 5 130.7 10 1 2 7 26 INPUT 20,655.9 1,600 5 422 7 27 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.00637

28 SUB-TRANS MISSION 29 DISTRIBUTION SUBS 17,309 6 30 SALES 0.00 832.2 t 0 0 31 LOSSES 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 32 INPUT 17,309 6 832.2 0 0 33 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.00000

34 TRANSMISSION 35 SUBTRANSMISSION 17,309 6 832.2 36 DISTRIBUTION SUBS 3,346 3 768 2 422.7 37 SALES 0 00 38 LOSSES 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 39 INPUT 20,655 9 1,600 5 422 7 40 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.00000

41 TOTALS LOSSES CALCULATED 806 7 772.4 31 7 2.7 SCALED 806.7 772 4 31.7 2 7

42 % OF TOTAL 100% 95 74% 3 93% 0 33%

43 SALES 21,872 3 19,883.5 1,568.8 420 0 44 % OF TOTAL 100 00% 90 91% 7 17% 1 92%

45 INPUT 22,679 0 20,655 9 1,600 5 422 7

46 CUMMULATIVE EXPANSION LOSS FACTORS 1.03688 1.03885 1.02019 NA (from meter to system input) SYSTEM

4416

WP/II-H-1.3/2 Page 29 Of 32

1

ENERGY MWH

SERVICE LEVEL

SERVICES

..SUMMARY OF LOSSES AND LOSS FACTORS BY DELIVERY VOLTAGE EXHIBIT 9 PAGE 2 of 2

SALES LOSSES SECONDARY PRIMARY SUBSTATION

2 SALES 87,800,225 87,800,225 3 LOSSES 276,108 276,108 4 INPUT 88,076,333 5 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.00314

6 SECONARY 7 SALES 8 LOSSES 87,923 87,923 9 INPUT 88,164,255 10 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.00100

11 LINE TRANSFORMER 12 SALES 13 LOSSES 1,548,768 1,548,768 14 INPUT 89,713,024 15 EXPANSION FACTOR - 1.01757

16 PRIMARY 17 SECONDARY 89,713,024 18 SALES 11,954,531 000 11,954,531 19 LOSSES 942,056 831,285 110,771 20 INPUT 21 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.00927

22 SUBSTATION 23 PRIMARY 90,544,309 12,065,302 24 SALES 3,218,116 3,218,116 25 LOSSES 607,273 519,572 69,234 18,467 26 INPUT 91,063,881 12,134,537 3,236,583 27 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.00574

28 SUB-TRANSMISSION 29 DISTRIBUTION SUBS 81,320,045 4,805,277 0 000 30 SALES 0 0 000 31 LOSSES 0 0 0.000 32 INPUT 81,320,045 4,805,277 33 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.00000

34 TRANSMISSION 35 SUBTRANSMISSION 81,320,045 4,805,277 36 DISTRIBUTION SUBS 9,743,835 7,329,260 3,236,583 37 SALES 0 38 LOSSES 0 0 0 0 39 INPUT 91,063,881 12,134,537 3,236,583 40 EXPANSION FACTOR 1.00000

41 TOTALS LOSSES Calculated 3,462,128 3,263,656 180,006 18,467 Scaled 3,462,128 3,263,656 180,005 18,467

42 % OF TOTAL 100% 94 27% 5 20% 0 53%

43 SALES 102,972,872 87,800,225 11,954,531 3,218,11'6 44 % OF TOTAL 100 00% 85 27% 11.61% 3 13%

45 INPUT 106,435,000 91,063,881 12,134,536 3,236,583

46 CUMMULATIVE EXPANSION LOSS FACTORS 1.03362 1.03717 1.01506 NA (from meter to system input) SYSTEM

4417



Appendix B

Discusiolt of Hoebel Coefficient

MIK

4418



COMMENTS ON THE HOEBEL COEFFICIENT

The Hoebel constant represents an established industry standard relationship between peak losses and average losŠes and is used in a loss study to estirnate energy losses from peak demand losses. H. F. Hoebel described this relationship in his article, "Cost of Electric Distribution Losses," Electric Light and Power, March 15, 1959.

Within any lbss evaluation study, peak demand losses can readily be calculated given equipnient resistance and approximate loading. Energy losses, however, are much more difficult to determine given their time-varying nature. This difficulty can be reduced by the use of an equation which relates peak load losses (demand) to 'average losses (energy). Once the relationship between peak and average losses is ktiown, average losses can be estimated from the known peak load losses.

Within the electric utility industry, the relationship between peak and average losses is known as the loss factor. For definitional purposes, loss factor is the ratio of the average power loss to the peak load power loss, during a specified period of time. This relationship is expressed mathematically as follows:

(1) FLS ALS ± PLS

where: FLS = Loss Factor

ALS = Average Losses

PLS =. Peak Losšes

The loss factor provides an estimate of the degree to which the load loss is maintained throughout the period in which the loss is being considered. In other words, loss factor is the ratio of the actual kWh losses incurred to the kWh losses which would have occurred if full load had continued throughout the period under study.

Examining the loss factor expression in light of a similar expression for load factor indicates a high degree of similarity. The mathematical expression for load factor is as follows:

(2) FLD ALD PLD where: FLD = Load Factor ALD = Average Load PLD = Peak Load

This load factor result provides an estimate of the degree to which the load loss is maintained throughout the period in which the load is being considered. Because of the siinilarities in definition, the loss factor is sometimes called the "load factor of losses." While the definitions are similar, a strict equating of the two factors cannot be made. There does exist, however, a relationship between these two factors which is dependent upon the shape of the load duration curve. Since resistive losses vary as the square of the load, it can be shown mathematically that the loss factor can vary between the extreme limits of load factor and load factor squared. The

MAC

1 .4419



relationship between load factor and loss factor has become an industry standard and is as follows:

(3) FLS H*FLD2 + (1-14)*PLD where: FLS = Loss Factor FLD = Load Factor H = Hoebel Coefficient

As noted in the attached article, the suggested value for H (the Hoebel coefficient) is 0.7. The exact value of H will vary as a function of .the shape of the utility's load duration curve. In recent years, values of H have been computed directly for a number of utilities based on EEI load

• data. It appears on this basis, the suggested value of 0.7 should be considered a lower bound and that values approaching unity may be considered a reasonable upper bound. Based on experience, values of H have ranged from approximately 0.85 to 0.95. The standard default value of 0.9 is generally used.

Inserting the Hoebel coefficient estimate gives the following loss factor relationship using Equation (3):

(4) FLS 0.90*FLD2 + 0.10*FLD

Once the Hoebel constant has been estimated and the load factor and peak losses associated with a piece of equipment have been estimated, one can calculate the average, or energy losses as follows:

(5) ALS PLS * [H*FLD2 + (141)*PLD] where: ALs = Average Losses PLS = Peak Losses H - = Hoebel Coefficient FLD = Load Factor

Loss studies use this equation to calculate energy losses at each major voltage level in the analysis.

MAC 2

4420

WP/II-H-1.3.1/1

Page 1 of 1

2017 RATE CASE

ONCOR ELECTRIC DELIVERY COMPANY LLC

ADJUSTMENTS TO TEST YEAR LOAD DATA

FOR THE TEST YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2016

SPONSOR: D. E. NELSON

There are no supporting workpapers for Schedule II-H-1.3.1.

4421

wP/II-H-1.4/1

Page 1 of 1

2017 RATE CASE


ADJUSTED TEST YEAR LOAD DATA



There are no supporting workpapers for Schedule II-H-1.4.

4422

n

WP/II-H-1.5

Page kof 1

2017 RATE CASE


ADJUSTMENTS TO OPERATING STATISTICS

FOR THE TEST YEAR ÈNDING DECEMBER 31, 2016



0

u

4423

wP/II-H-2.1

Page 1 of 1

2017 RATE CASE


MODEL INFORMATION

FOR THE TEST YEAR ENDING DECEMBER'31, 2016


There are no supporting workpapers f6r Schedule II-H-2.1.

4424

\W/II-H-2.2

Page 1 of 1

2017 RATE CASE


MODEL DATA



There are no suppoqing workpapers for Schedule II-H-2.2.

4425

WP/II-H-2.3

Page 1 of 1

2017 RATE CASE


MODE1 VARIABLES

FOR THE TESTYEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2016



4426

of 1

PUC DOCKET NO.


CUSTOMER INFORMATION




4427

WP/H-H-3.2

Page 1 of 1

PUC DOCKET NO.


CUSTOMER ADJUSTMENTS




4428

VVP/II-H-3.3

Page 1 of 1

PUC DOCKET NO.


CUSTOMER ADJUSTMENT DATA




4429

of 2

2017 RATE CASE ONCOR ELECTRIC DELIVERY COMPANY LLC

'REVENUE IMPACT DATA FOR THE TEST YEAR ENDING DEMI3ER 31, 2016

SPONSOR: D. ENELSON

OTHER NON-ELECTRIC REVENUE

Line No.

Acct No. Detail Of Miscellaneous Other Revenue

Retail T&D Rev Credit

(a) (b) (c) 1 450 Forfeited Discounts $147,065 2 3 451 Miscellaneous Service Revenue $1,533,1.66 4 5 454 Rents from Pole Contacts $8,422,002 6 454 Rents from Fiber Optics $964,045 7 454 Rents from Property $1,546,876 8 9 456 Other Revenue-Other

10 456 CIAC Gross Up $4,649,186 11 456 Lab Services $129,326

12 456 Pro-rata/Dual Feed $111,325

13 456 Tampering - TDSP energy portion of tampering $270,047

15 Total - Non-Electiic Revenue $17,773,039

Note: See WP/II-E-5

4430

WP/II-H-4.1 Page 2 of 2


REVENUE IMPACT DATA FOR THE TEST YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2016


LINE NO.

1 Outdoor Lighting Revenue $11,153,803 * 2 3 Street Lighting Revenue 4 5 ' Non-Metered Facilities 6 Adjusted Lighting @ Present Rates 7 8 POD Charge $335,504 9 10 Schedule A $39,545,027 11 Schedule B $4,097,848 12 Schedule C $10,150 13 Schedule D $1,700,635 14 Rectangular $134,896 15 Post Top $13,253 16 Incandescent $35,339 17 Historical $50,599 18 Facilities Cliarge $45,587,747 19 20 Total $45,923,251 21 22

*Schedule II-H-4.1 Page 9

4431

WP/II-H-4.2 Page 1 of 1

2017 RATE CASE ONCOR ELECTRIC DELIVERY COMPANY

REVENUE CALCULATION METHODOLOGIES FOR THE TEST YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2016



4432

WP/II-H-5.1

Page 1 of 1

2017 RATE CASE


WEATHER STATION DATA

FOR THE.TEST YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2016



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2017 RATE CASE ONCOR 'ELECTRIC DELIVERY COMPANY LLC

ADJUSTED WEATHER STATION DATA FOR THE TEST YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2016


Line No. (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) 1 Model: Residential Spline 2 After Corrective Procedures for Autocorrelation 3 Dependent Variable: ResDMWH 4 Estimation Begin Date: January 1, 2013 5 Estimation End Date: December 31, 2015 6 7 Crigfaent, stdEh.7-1-:§517---Fv-giFj 8 CONST 87922.454 1 483.294 59.275 0.00% 9 Calendar_13_15.DLSiv -7162.197 1501.254 -4.771 0.00%

10 Calendar_13_15.Monday -7133.455 512.757 -13.912 0 00% 11 Calendar_13_15.Tuesday -8383.469 557.238 -15.045 0.00% 12 Calendar_13_15.Wednesday -8173.731 519.19 -15.743 0.00% 13 Calendar_13_15.Thursday -8331.626 518.775 -16.06 0.00% 14 Calendar_13_15.Friday -9053.789 558 599 -16.208 0.00% 15 Calendar_13_15.Saturday -4091.399 502.7 -8.139 0.00% 16 Calendar_13_15.PresDay -3413.101 2823.442 -1.209 22.70% 17, Calendar_13_15.MemDay 8392 103 2811.343 2.985 0.29% 18 Calendar_13_15.LaborDay 15438.784 2851.428 5.414 0.00% 19 Calendar_13_15.Thanks -4328.255 2930.326 -1.477 14.00% 20 Calendar_13_15 FriAThanks 4701.088 2934.065 1 602 10.94% 21 Calendar_13_15.XMasEve 7704.035 2918.169 2 64 0.84% 22 Calendar_13_15.XMasDay 9805.544 2914 26 3.365 0 08% 23 Calendar_13_15.NYEve 4712.189 2974.305 1.584 11.34% 24 Calendar_13_15.NYDay 9668.831 3533.614 2.736 0 63% 25 DayTypeVars.Feb -3734.674 1910.673 -1 955 5.09% 26 DayTypeVars Mar -5752.552 2024 145 -2.842 0.46% 27 DayTypeVars.Apr -5829.672 1878.036 -3 104 0.20% 28 DayTypeVars.Jun 6871.628 1933 541 3.554 0 04% 29 DayTypeVars.Jul 10163.789 2082.769 4.88 0.00% 30 DayTypeVars Aug 4912.5 1945.07 2.526 1.17% 31' DayTypeVars.Nov -5987.619 1843.695 -3.248 0.12% 32 RESDD_13_15.ResHDD40 1173.35 ' 192.396 6.099 0.00.6 33 RESDD_13_15.ResHDD50 1524.724 165.936 9.189 0.00% 34 RESDD_13_15.ResHDD60 2063.572 81.15 25.429 0.00% 35 RESDD_13_15 ResCDD65 1584.129 180.925 8 756 0.00% 36 RESDD_13_15.ResCDD70 1790.95 357.604 5.008 0.00% 37 RESDD_13_15.ResCDD75 1218.014 378.979 3.214 0 14% 38 RESDD_13_15.ResCDD80 774.529 285.47 2 713 0.68% 39 AR(1) 0.426 0.031 13.796 0.00% 40 AR(2) 0.094 0.033 2.849 0.45% 41 AR(3) 0 196 0.033 5.926 0.00% 42 AR(4) 0.089 0.031 2.871 0.42% 43 44 [Regression Statiair 45 Adjusted Observations 1091 46 Deg. of Freedom for Error 1056 47 R-Squared 0.9810 48 Adjusted R-Squared 0.9810 49 F-Statistic 1640 50 Prob (F-Statistic) 0 0000 51 Model Sum of Squares 1 6053541 43682 52 Sum of Squared Errors 30,403,682,387.09 53 Mean Squared Error 28,791,365.90 54 Std. Error of Regression 5,365.76 55 Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) 4,023.61 56 Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) 3.93% 57 Durbin-Watson Statistic 2.002 58 Ljung-Box Statistic 18.21

- 59 Prob (Ljung-Box) 0.7928

4450





4451

Line No. 1 2 3

'1.0 4 5

7 8 0.0

9. 0.5

10 11 1.0 12 13 14 1.0 15 16 0.5 17 18 0.0

19 20 0.5

21 1.0

22 23

Residential Spline Model After Corrective Procedures for Autocorrelation

1 I _l l IMMO I,

1 2 3 4 5" 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 ACF

It;

MN= 11111100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 PACF

WP/ll-H-5.2/5 Page 3 of 16


ADJUSTED WEATHER STATION DATA FOR ME TEST YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31,2016


Line rsir

2

(a) • (b) (c) (d) Model: Secondary Service Less Than or Equal to 10 KW Spline After Corrective Procedures for Autoconelation

(o)

3 Depondant Variable: GSSDMWH 4 Estimation Begin Date: January 1, 2013 5 Estimation End Date. Drieember 31, 2015 6 7 r - va,abo . Coefficient 9td:Eir̂ """""*"T.Stat1=Plyeiliiiirl 8 CONST 3364.515 0.00% 9 Calendar_13_15.DLSav -114 017

34676.

796169 9.17

-2 387 1.72% 10 11

Calendar_13_15 Monday Calendar_13_15.Tuesday

543 433 582 792

22.552 31.445

24.097 18.534

0 00% 0 00%

12 13

Calendar_13_15 Wednesday Calendar_13_15 Thursday

624.389 606.835

32 852 32.838

19 006 18 48 ° °% 0°0 0 %

14 Calendar_13_15.Fnday 593 604 31 466 18.865 . 15 Calendar_13_15 Saturday 176 832 22.457 7.874

0 000./04

0 0

16 Calendar_13_15.MemDay -458.914 56 666 0.00% 17 Calendar_13_15.July4th -547 223 56 458 - 9 -98 6°993 ' 0.00% 18 Calendar_13_15.LaborDay -592.697 58 087 -10 204 19 20 21

Calendar_13_15 Thanks Calendar_13_15 FnAThanks Calendar_13_15 XMasEve

-375 073 -98.517

-316.627 31 66311134

88.803

-5 .6

461 ..19

-3.565

0°.0°0°%% 11 90% 0 04%

22 Calendar_13_15.XMasDay -572.01 77 021 -7 427 0 00% 23 24

Calendar_13_15 XMasWk Calendar_13_15.NYDay

-149.493 -485 388

88 718 80 352 :61'064851

9.23% 0 00%

25 Calendar 13_15 XMasLights 5.547 3 022 6 67% 26 27

DayTypey-ars TimeTrend DayTypeVars.Apr

196 347 -135 325

130 426 51.357

11.'580356 103.82

65.%4

28 20

DayTypeVars May DayTypeVars Jul

-236 777 -175 427

51.455 58 666

4-2

660325

-2.99 0 00%

30 DayTypeVars Aug -268 499 76.437 -3 513 0°.0259%% 31 32

DayTypeVars.Sep DayTypeVars Oct

-319.238 -297.2

86 466 89 295

-3 692 -3.328 0

0 002

904%

33 34 35

DayTypeVars.Nov DayTypeVars Dec GSSDD_13_15 GSSI-IDD35

-358.241 -125 797 -15 369

86 46 79 358

4 63

:41.6

18463

-3.319

0 00% 11.33% 0 10%

36 37

GSSDD_13_15.GSSHDD50 GSSDD_13_15 GSSHDD60 1187 0843

2 972 1.776 . 6100.0154

0 00%

38 GSSDD_13_15 GSSCDD65 26 829 4.03 % 0° 0°0° 39 40

GSSDD_13_15 GSSCDD70 GSSDD_13_15 GSSCOD75

17.441 22 398

7 312 7 5.3685 26 1 72% 0.01%

41 AR(1) 0 713 5 725 .0 0 32 2 3221 '9 .6 0 00% 42 43 44 45

AR(2) AR(3) AR(4) AR(5)

0'0°122 0 2 0 113

-0 035

0 039 0 038 0 038 0.038

0 307 0.579 29

.0.90511

75 87% 56 27%

360..7326Z 46 AR(6) 0 020 0 038 0 525 59 95% 47 48

AR(7) AR(8)

0 180 -0 097

0 038 0.039

4.707 -2 493 01.298°Z

49 AR(9) -0 008 0 039 -0 194 84.61% 50 AR(10) 0.010 0.255 79 87% 51 AR(11) -0 072

003,8

8 00

6 03% 52 AR(12) 0 017 0 038 -01.483871 66 20% 53 AR(13) 0 4 1.193 54 AR(14)

0160

6 0

8 09.0°338 4 174

203

0300

%%

55 AR(15) -0.134 0 05% 56 AR(16) 00°3399 .0 3 4 --068778 49 23% 57 AR(17) 7 -0 0°29 0.3 0 039 1.015 31 01% 58 AR(18) -0.022 -0 576 56 47% 59 AR(19) -0 029 ° °3399 0 0 -0 756 45.00% 60 AR(20) 0 039 0 96 % 61 AR(21) 00.0367 13 0 039

33.071

04

0 4 62 AR(22) -0 051 0 038 3 -1.353321 18.32%

63 AR(23) -0 067 0 031 -2.143 3 23% 64 65 1=141174MOnfatitia""'""T"I 66 Adjusted Observations 1072 67 Deg of Freedom for Error 1016 68 R-Squared 0 969 69 Adjusted R-Squared 0.968 70 F-Stabstic 582 71 Prob (F-Stabstic) 0 000 72 Model Sum of Squares 500216797 73 Sum of Squared Errors 15,872,935 74 Mean Squared Error 15,622.97 75 Std Error of Regression 124 990 76 Mean Abs Deo. (MAD) 94 62 77 78

Mean Abs % Err (MAPE) Durbin-Watson Statistic

2.119%7

1 .9

79 Ljung-Box Statistic 4 16 80 Prob (Ljung-Box) 1.000

4452





4453

Line No. 1 2 3

1.0 4 5 6 0.5

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9 0.5

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Secondary Service Less Than or Equal to 10 KW Spline Model After Corrective Procedures for Autocorrelation

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 ACF

4

I -4

1

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 PACF





Line No (a) (b) (c) ; (d) (e) 1 blociel: Secondary Service Greater Than 10 KW Spline 2 After Comely. Procedures for Autocorrelation 3 Dopendent Variable: GSLDMWH -4 Estimation Begin Date: January 1, 2013 5 Estimation End Date; December 31, 2015 6 7 Coefficiere stdElt-sfp-viii171 8 CONST 85270 64 1222.886 69 729 0 00 9 'Calendar_13_15.DLSav -2073.029 766 205 -2.706 0.69%

10 Calendar_13_15 Monday 25150 815 358.495 70.157 0 00% 11 Calendar_13_15 Tuesday 26615.343 458.765 58.015 0.00% 12 Calendar_13_15.Wednesday 27648 181 495 72 55.774 0.00% 13 Calendar_13_15 Thursday 26595 997 496 058 53 615 0 00% 14 Calendar_13_15 Fnday 24402 743 460.407 53.003 0 00% 15 Calendar_13_15.Saturday 4896.703 353 58 13.849 0.00% 16 Calendar_13_15 MLK -7626 521 1245.688 -6 122 0 00% 17 Calendar_13_15 PresDay -6366 5' 1250 939 -5.089 0.00% 18 Calendar_13_15.GoodFri -3734.973 1100 378 -3 394 0.07% 19 Calendar_13_15 MemDay -24060.725 1251.858 -19 22 0 00% 20 Calendar_13_15 July4th -16605 025 1239.776 -13.394 0 00% 21 Calendar_13_15.LaborDay -22953.379 1272 052 -18 044 0.00% 22 Calendar_13_15 Thanks -19120 732 1440 094 -13 277 0 00% 23 Calendar_13_15 FriAThanks -8178.95 1434 375 -5.702 0.00% 24 Calendar_13_15.XMasWkB4 -2611 444 2132 814 -1 224 22 11% 25 Calendar_13_15.XMasEve -16918.431 1943.712 -8 704 0.00% 26 Calendar_13_15 XMasDay -28917 876 1727.81 -16 737 0 00% 27 Calendar_13_15 XMasWk -14747.125 2088 699 -7 06 0.00% 28 Calendar_13_15 NYEve -8086 007 1507.863 -5 363 0 00% 29 ,Calendar_13_15 NYDay -18810 386 1714 675 -10 97 0 00% 30 Calendar_13_15.XMasLights 179 645 59 042 3 043 0 24% 31 DayTypeVars.TimeTrend 965 932 409.707 2 358 1 86% 32 DayTypeVars Jun 4239 73 1000 617 4 237 0 00% 33 DayTypeVars Jul 3626 108 1100.724 3 294 0 10% 34 DayTypeVars.Aug 6790 301 1142 906 5 941 0 00% 35 DayTypeVars Sep 5845.495 1183.264 4.94 0.00% 36 DayTypeVars.Oct 2072 001 1066 053 1 944 5 22% 37 DayTypeVars Nov -3206 473 946 939 -3.386 0.08% 38 GSLDD_13_15 GSLHDD35 -184 187 118 214 -1 558 11 95% 39 GSLDD_13_15 GSLHDD45 241.179 1 24 409 1 939 5 28% 40 GSLDD_13_15.GSLHDD50 632.289 86.282 7 328 0 00% 41 GSLDD_13_15.GSLCDD60 590.014 76.071 7.756 0 00% 42 GSLDD_13_15 GSLCDD65 502 744 148.742 3 38 0 08% 43 GSLDD_13_15.GSLCDD70 456.996 125 181 3 651 0.03% 44 GSLDD_13_15 GSLCDD80 178 448 99 05 1 802 7 19% 45 AR(1) 0.694 0 031 22.255 0 00% 46 AR(2) -0.056 0 038 -1 459 14.48% 47 AR(3) 0 089 0 038 2 318 2 07% 48 AR(4) -0.036 0 038 -0 929 35 30% 49 AR(5) -0 012 0.038 -0 302 76 27% 50 AR(6) -0 076 0 038 -1 978 4 82% 51 AR(7) 0 246 0 038 6 446 0.00% 52 AR(8) -0 108 0.039 -2.773 , 0.57% 53 AR(9) -0 011 0 038 -0.285 77 60% 54' AR(10) -0 077 0 039 -1 992 4 66% 55 AR(11) 0.031 0 038 0.801 42 32% 56 AR(12) 0 002 0.038 0 051 95 90% 57 AR(13) 0 041, 0.038 1 061 28 89% 58 AR(14) 0.115 0 038 2.991 0.29% 59 AR(15) -0 082 0 032 -2 592 0.97% 60 61 FIMrssi-driStlistics_ 62 Adjusted Observations 1080 63 Deg of Freedom for Error 1028 64 R-Squared 0 9820 65 Adjusted R-Squared 0 9820 66 F-Statistic 1129 67 Prob (F-Statistic) 0 0000 68 Model Sum of Squares 425589562340 69 Sum of Squared Errors 7,596,786,186 70 Mean Squared Error 7389869 830 71 Std Error of Regression 2718.430 72 ' Mean Abs Dev. (MAD) 1943, 45 73 Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) 1 65% 74 Durbin-Watson Statistic 1 997 75 Ljung-Box Statistic 10 900 76 Prob (Ljung-Box) 0.9897

4454





Line No. 1 2 3

1.0 4 5

6 0.5

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Secondary Service Greater Than 10 KW Spline Model After Corrective Procedures for Autocorrelation

3 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 ACF

WIMI11111.

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 PACF

1 2

4455





Line (a) (b) (c) (d) (e)

1 Model: Primary Service Greater Than 10 KW Distribution Spline 2 After Corrective Procedures tor Autocorrelation 3 Dependent Variable: GPLDDMWH 4 Estimation Begin Date: January 1, 2013 5 Estimation End Date: December 31, 2015 6 7 'tiaraire Coeffscient Mtn' T-Stat PIVal=

CONST ' 26566.585 217.663 122.054 0.00% 9 Calendar_13_15.DLSav -381.591 193.389 -1.973 4.87% 10 'Calendar_13_15.Monday 2848.184 46.524 61.219, 0.00% 11 Calendar_13_15.Tuesday 3383.024 61.53 54.982 0.00% 12 Calendar_13_15.Wednesday 3552.039 64.216 55.314 0.00% 13 Calendar_13_15.Thursday 3377.175 64.299 52.523 0.00% 14 Calendar_13_15.Friday 3224.954 61.722 52.25 0.00% 15 Calendar_13_15.Saturday 1051.452 45 663 23.026 0.00% 16 Calendar_13_15.MLK -505.67 229.636 -2.202 2.79% 17 Calendar_13_15 GoodFri -439.228 199.59 -2 201 2.80% 18 Calendar_13_15.MemDay -2495 230.19 -10.839 0.00% 19 Calendar_13_15.July4th -1731.58 229.251 -7.553 0.00% 20 Calendar_13_15 LaborDay -2991.722 233.187 -12.83 0.00% 21 Calendar_13_15.Thanks -3072.732 288.566 -10.648 0.00% 22 Calendar_13_15.FriAThanks -2422.481 288.501 -8.397 0.00% 23 Calendar_13_15.XMasEve -3485.217 422.32 -8.253 0 00% 24 Calendar_13_15.XMasDay -5007.955 354.197 -14.139 0.00% 25 Calendar_13_15.XMasWk -2196.582 402.563 -5.456 0.00% 26 Calendar_13_15.NYEve -1754.896 300.063 -5.848 0.00% 27 Calendar_13_15.NYDay -3718.696 335 681 -11.078 0.00% 28 Calendar_13_15.XMasLights 56.429 13.147 4.292 ' 0.00% 29 DayTypeVars.Feb -580.543 191 329 -3.034 0.25% 30 DayTypeVars.May 299.457 191.522 1.564 11.82% 31 DayTypeVars.Jul 507.282 230.992 , 2.196 2.83% 32 DayTypeVars.Aug 825.34 276.062 2.99 0.29% 33 DayTypeVars.Sep 524.16 281.806 1.86 6.32% 34 DayTypeVars.Oct 644.174 245.159 2.628 0.87% 35 GPDDD_13_15.GPDCDD60 76.923 8.571 8.975 0.00% 36. GPDDD_13_15.GPDCDD70 36.511 13.367 2 731 0.64% 37 AR(1) 0.889 0.031 28.787 0.00% 38 AR(2) -0.263 0.041 -6.358 0.00% 39 AR(3) 0.116 0 042 2.732 0.64% 40 AR(4) 0.022 0.043 0.526 59.89% 41 AR(5) -0.016 0.043 -0.381 70 34% 42 AR(6) -0 042 0.043 -0.987 32.40% 43 AR(7) 0.078 0 043 1.82 6.90% 44 AR(8) 0.051 0.042 1.192 23.36% 45 AR(9) 0.006 0.042 0.137 89.12% 46 AR(10) 0.062 0.031 1.999 4.58% 47 48 Regression Statistics_ 49 Adjusted Observations 1085 50 Deg. of Freedom for Error 1046 51 R-Squared 0.9400 52 Adjusted R-Squared 0.9380 53 F-Stabstic 434 54 Prob (F-Statistic) 0.0000 55 Model Sum of Squares 4854660076 56 Sum of Squared Errors 308,147,355 57 Mean Squared Error 294595.940 58 Std. Error of Regression 542.7700 59 Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) 387.66 60 Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) 1.32% 61 Durbin-Watson Statistic 2 001 62 Ljung-Box Statistic 17.08 63 Prob (Ljung-Box) 0.8451

4456



ADjUSTED.WEATHER STATION DATA FOR THE TEST YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2016


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2 3

1.0 4 5 6 0.5

7 0.0 8

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Primary Service Greater Than 10 KW Distribution Spline Model

After Corrective Procedures for Autocorrelation

MON

I 4 MIN 1 I /

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WP/ll-H-5 2/5 Page 9 of 16



SPONSOR: D. E. NELSON •

Line (a) (b) (c) (d) (a) No

1 Model: Residential Spline (B) Before Corrective Procedures for Autocorrelation

3 Dependent Variable: ResDMWH 4 Estimation Begin Date: January 1, 2013 5 Estimation End Date: December 31, 2015 6 7 Variable Coeificiont 8 CONST 83807.336 1407.558 59 541 0 00% 9 Calendar_13_15 DLSav -6923 385 1418 696 88 0.00%

10 Calendar_13_15.Monday -7617.79 732.562 -10.399 0 00% 11 Calendar_13_15.Tuesday -8811.165 715 056 -12.322 0 00% 12 Calendar_13_15 Wednesday -8481 189 717 628 -11 818 0.00% 13 Calendar_13_15 Thursday -8547.346 719.286 -11.883 0.00% 14 Calendar_13_15.Friday -9134 513 720 278 -12 682 0.00% 15 Catendar_13_15.Saturday -3934 311 714 41 -5 507 0 00% 16 Calendar_13_15.MLK -989.838 3734 331 -0.265 79.10% 17 Calendar_13_15 PresDay -3907.98 3734.555 -1.046 29.56% 18 Calendar_13_15.GoodFn -3178.739 3201.278 -0 993 32.09% 19 Calendar_13_15 MemDay 9957 701 3705 319 2.687 0.73% 20 Calendar_13_15 July4th -3308 381 3700.521 -0 894 37.15% 21 Calendar_13_15 LaborDay 17345.498 3729.311 4.651 0.00% 22 Calendar_13_15 Thanks -2393 215 3704.396 -0.646 51.84% 23 Calendar_13_15.FnAThanks 7032 559 3712 093 1.894 5.84% 24 Calendar_13_15 XMasWkB4 -2528 916 4171.811 -0 606 54.45% 25 Calendar_13_15 XMasEve 13392 961 3833 364 3 494 0 05% 26 Calendar_13_15.XMasDay 17426 011 3834 638 4.544 0.00% 27 Calendar_13_15.XMasWk 4016 301 3900 099 1.03 30 33% 28 Calendar_13_15 NYEve 9564.225 3843 511 2 488 1.30% 29 Calendar_13_15 NYDay 7684 788 3685.74 2.085 3.73% 30 Calendar_13_15 XMasLights 343.155 84.006 4 085 0 01% 31 DayTypeVars.TimeTrend 949.559 232 996 4.075 0 01% 32 DayTypeVars Feb -6029.254 974 624 -6 186 0 00% 33 DayTypeVars Mar -5598 99 1386 856 -4.037 0.01% 34 DayTypeVars Apr -6766.29 1698 568 -3.984 0 01% 35 DayTypeVars.May -584.752 1782.378 -0.328 74 29% 36 DayTypeVars.Jun 6613.905 1949.193 3.393 0 07% 37, DayTypeVars Jul 8069.856 1980 94 4 074 0 01% 38 DayTypeVars.Aug 5539.445 2012 766 2 752 0 60% 39 DayTypeVars.Sep -81 665 1913.181 -0 043 96 59% 40 DayTypeVars Oct -5190 917 1740 342 -2 983 0 29% 41 DayTypeVars Nov -13226 598 1015 254 -13 028 0 00% 42 DayTypeVars.Dec -5388 666 1462 762 -3.684 0 03% 43 RESDD_13_15.ResHDD35 571 766 539.057 1 061 28 91% 44 RESDD_18,15 ResHDD40 -54.716 675 19 -0 081 93 54% 45 RESDD_13_15 ResHDD45 688 684 614 679 1.12 26 28% 46 RESDD_13_15 ResHDD50 1739 139 562 176 3 094 0 20% 47 RESDD _1 3_15 ResHDD55 -19 054 534 415 -0 036 97.16% 48 RESDD_13_15.ResHDD60 2263 97 495.882 4 566 0 00% 49 RESDD_13_15 ResHDD65 5.789 270 283 0 021 98 29% 50 RESDD_13_15 ResCDD65 2080 826 272.899 7.625 0 00% 51 RESDD_13_15.ResCDD70 1082 737 492.791 2.197 2 82% 52 RESDD _1 3_15.ResCDD75 1693 708 490 318 3.454 0 06% 53 RESDD_13_15 ResCDD80 968.656 435.524 2 224 2 63% 54 RESDD_13_15.ResCDD85 -212.007 412.611 -0 514 60 75% 55 56 tisearttsion 57 Adjusted Observations 1095 58 Deg. of Freedom for Error 1048

. 59 R-Squared 1 60 Adjusted R-Squared - 1 61 F-Statistic 889 62 Prob (F-Stabstic) 63 Model Sum of Squares 1 59806969721 532 00% 64 Sum of Squared Errors 40,952,604,321.69 65 Mean Squared Error 39,076,912 52 66 Std Error of Regression 6,251 15 67 Mean Abs Dev (MAD) 4,748 67 68 Mean Abs % Err (MAPE) 4 53% 69 Durbin-Watson Statistic 1 232 70 Ljung-Box Statistic 482.92 71 Prob (Ljung-Box) 0

4458





445q

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0.5- 10 11 1.0 12 13 14 1.0 15 16 0.5 17 18 0.0

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1

Residential Spline (B) Model Before Corrective Procedures for'Autocorrelation

F51 it ark WEI gel PPS rem, en

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9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 ACF

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WPM-H-5 2/5 Page 11 of 16




Line No: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

, (a) (b)

Model: Secondary Service Less Than Before Corrective Procedures for Autocorrelation Dependent Variable: GSSDMWH Estimation Begin Date: January 1, 2013 Estimation End Date: December 31, 2015

(c) or Equal to 10

CMffifin itlEr----"1"-Stit

(d) KW Spline (B)

(e)

i Venable 8 CONST - 3161 92 53 79 58.782 0 00% 9 10

Calendar_13_15.DLSav Calendar_13_15 Monday

-23.888 530.475

54 022 27.895

-0 442 19 017

65 85%

11 12 13

Calendar_13_15 Tuesday Calendar_13_15.Wednesday Calendar_l 3_15 Thursday

580.624 625 977 608.436

27.232 27.341 27.398

21 321 22 896 22.207

00.

0000Z

0 00% 0.00%

14 Calendar_13_15.Friday 607 386 ' 27 439 22.136 0.00% 15 Calendar_13_15.Saturday 196 234 27 21 7.212 0.00% 16 17

Calendar_13_15 MLK Calendar_13_15.PresDay

-59 609 -92 543

142 319 142.182

-0.419 -0.651

67 54% 51 53%

18 19

Calendar_13_15 GoodFn Calendar_13_15.MemDay

40 86 -415 569

121 897 141 161 -20..934436

73 76% 0.33%

20 21

Calendar_13_15.July4th Calendar_13_15 LaborDay

-689 555 -527.458

140 981 142 145

-4 891 -3 711

0.0020%

0

% 22 23 24

Calendar_13_15.Thanks Calendar_13_15.FnAThanks Calendar_13_15 XMasWkB4

-440 344 -173.435 -257.233

141 064 141 294 158 93

-3.122 -1 227 -1.619

201.9199Z 10.59%

25 26

Calendar_13_15 XMasEve Calendar_13_15.XMasDay

-297.592 -531 846

146 068 146 008

2 -- 0 3

. 84337 0 03% 4 19%

27 28 29 30 31 32

Calendar_13_15 XMasWk Calendar_13_15.NYEve Calendar_13_15 NYDay Calendar_13_15 XMasLights DayTypeVars TimeTrend DayTypeVars Feb

-113.311

3.2473 -812 54 -4 10 24

27 0 052 -200 566

148.562 146.411 140.371

3 2 8 874

37.118

-0.763 -0 092 -3 4

.

33

26

-6

30.432

44 58% 92 67% 0 06% 0 14% 0 00% 0.00%

33 DayTypeVars Mar -247 227 52 822 -4.46083 4 34 DayTypeVars Apr -501 747 ' 64 731 -7 751 00 000"%* 35 DayTypeVars May , -579 382 67 983 -8 522 0 00% 36 DayTypeVars Jun -263.658 74 36 -3 546 o 04% 37 DayTypeVars.Jul -322 316 75 551 -4.266 o 00% 38 DayTypeVars Aug -160 174 76 742 -2 087 3 71% 39 DayTypeVars.Sep -310 686 72.871 -4 264 o 00% 40 DayTypeVars.Oct -422.367 66 279 0.00% 41 DayTypeVars.Nov -555 248 38.677 6 3 763 -4 -1 3 5 0 00% 42 DayTypeVars Dec -341 218 55 688 -6 127 0 00% 43 44 45

GSSDD_13_15.GSSHDD35 GSSDD_13_15 GSSHDD40 GSSDD_13_15 GSSHDD45

-20.781 -15 25 31 627

20 394 25 422 23 104

-1 019 -0.6

1 369

30 84% 54.87% 17 13%

46 GSSDD_13_15 GSSHDD50 10 343 21 013 0 492 62 27% 47 48

GSSDD_13_15.GSSHDD55 GSSDD_13_15.GSSHDD60

8.184 10 66

19 925 18.573

0 411 0 574

68 13%

49 GSSDD_13_15 GSSHDD65 9 619 2 10198 10 3

0 944 , 35466

51Z

.5 50 GSSDD_13_15 GSSCDD65 32.62 3.143 51 52

GSSDD_13_15.GSSCDD70 GSSDD_13_ 15 GSSCDD75

21.681 18.426

18 716 18.567

1 158 0 992

(17 24 107 32 12%

53 54

GSSDD_13_15 GSSCDD80 GSSDD_13_15.GSSCDD85

11 681 -8.04

16 501 16 08

0 708 -0 5 t>

47 92% 61 72%

53 54 rarelniOntatistics_ . 55 Adjusted Observations 1095 56 Deg. of Freedom f or Error 1048 57 R-Squared 0 886 58 Adjusted R-Squared 0 881 59 F-Stabstic 176 9680 60 P rob (F-Stabstic) 0 000 61 Model Sum of Squares 46147318941 00% 62 Sum of Squared Errors 59,409,523.95 63 Mean Squared Error 56,688.48 64 Std Error of Regression 238 090 65 Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) 185 46 66 Mean Abs % Err. (MAPE) 4.19% 67 Durbin-Watson Statistic 0.489

,68 Ljung-Box Statistic 5718 78 60 Prob (Ljung-Box) 0 000

4460

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4461

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10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 0.0

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Secondary Service Less Thin or Equal to 10 KW Spline (B) Model Before Corrective Procedures for Autocorrelation

1.0

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PACF

WP/II-H-5 2/5 Page 13 of 16




Line No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Model: Secondary Service Greater Than'10 KW Spline (B)

, Before Corrective Procedures for Autocorrelation Dependent Variable: GSLMWH Estimation Begin Date: January 1, 2013 Estimation End Date: December 31, 2015

L Variants traffniali rdEr7----"T-8tar"""°*--P:ValiFM 8 CONST 85026.289 721 492 117.848 0 00% 3 10

Calendar_13_15.DLSav- Calendar_13_15 Monday

-2453.541 25124 688

788.854 407.346

-3 11 61 679

0.19%

11 Calendar_13_15 Tuesday 26590.388 397.705 66.86 9 9 0.009Z 12 Calendar_13_15 Wednesda 27688.29 399.089 ,69.379 0 00% 13 Calendar_13_15 Thursday 26614 244 400 016 66.533 14 15

Calendar_13_15 Friday Calendar_13_15.Saturday

24496.242 5016.357

400 546 397.303

61.157 12.626

0.00Z 0 00

0 00% 16 17 18

Calendar_13_15.MLK Calendar_13_15 PresDay Calendar_13_15.GoodFri

-8988.595 -9257.422 -4247.004

2077.559 2077.15

1780.575

-4 327 -4 457 -2.385

0 00% 00 0

1..72%% 19 20

Calendar_13_15.MemDay Calendar_13_15 July4th

-25162.192 -23750 301

2060.604 2058 019

-12 211 -11.54 9 8 ° 0 009k°

21 Calendar_13_15.LaborDay -22569 226 2073 272 -10.886 0 00% 22 Calendar213_15 Thanks -21358 19 2060 23 -10.367 0.00% 23 Calendar_13_15.FnAThank. -7859.928 2063 002 -3 81 0 02% 24 Calendar_13_15 XMasWkB -5877 282 2320 998 -2.532 1 15% 25 Calendar_13_15 XMasEve -16938 46 2131 891 -7.945 0 00% 26 Calendar_13_15 XMasDay -29436.795 2132.787 -13 802 0.00% 27 Calendar_13_15 XMasWk -15472 932 2169 074 -7.133 0 00% 28 29

Calendar_13_15.NYEve Catendar_13_15 NYDay

-12001.212 -25967 071

2137 253 2050.484 -II-5.68618 2 4

0 00% 0.00%

30 Calendar_13_15 XMasLight 228 296 46 744 4.884 0.00% 31 DayTypeVars.TimeTrend 1021 88 129.593 7.885 0 00% 32 DayTypeVars Feb -812 612 542 312 13 43% 33 DayTypeVars.Mar -1053 975 771.321

:11.346968

17 21% 34 DayTypeVars Apr -324 818 944 714 -0 344 73 11% 35 36

DayTypeVars May DayTypeVars Jun

355.491 2767 494

990.955 1083 254 0 3 2 55559 711.0989%%

37 DayTypeVars Jul 708.938 1100.606 , 0 644 51.96% 38 DayTypeVars.Aug 5520 052 1118 26 ' 4.936 0 00% 39 DayTypeVars Sep 6201' 567 1063 816 0 00% 40 DayTypeVars.Oct 2427 878 968 85.883 2 0 1.23% 41 DayTypeVars Nov -4548 209 564 524 -8 057 0 00% 42 DayTypeVars.Dec -1705 633 813 899 -2 096 43 GSLDD_13_15 GSLHDD35 -472.154 297 355 -1.588 131 2863%% 44 GSLDD_13_15.GSLHDD40 571.606 371 261 1 54 12 40% 45 GSLDD_13_15 GSLHDD45 -80 088 337.902 -0 237 81.27% 46 GSLDD_13_15 GSLHDD50 921.47 309 994 2 973 0 30% 47 GSLDD_13_15 GSLHDD55 -57 187 295.563 -0 193 84 66% 48 GSLDD_13_15.GSLHDD60 25.847 158 865 0 163 87.08% 49 GSLDD_13_15.GSLCDD60 390.261 149.882 2 604 50 GSLDD_13_15 GSLCDD65 989 924 268 652 3.685 09 0933Z 51 GSLDD_13_15 GSLCDD70 82 565 274.076 0 76 33% 52 GSLDD_13_15 GSLCDD75 411 551 273 787 5

3031

1

0

13 31% 53 GSLDD_13_15 GSLCDD80 226.227 242.572 0 933 35.12% 54 GSLDD_13_15.GSLCDD85 ' -430 79 225 496 -1 91 5 63% 55 56 [R7Feriirn-grars'a 57 Adjusted Observations 1095 58 Deg. of Freedom for Error 1048 59 R-Squared 0 971 60 Adjusted R-Squared 0 970 61 F-Statistic 764 62 Prob (F-Stabstic) 0.000 63 Model Sum of Squares 424758807155 64 Sum of Squared Errors 12,667,424,468 65 Mean Squared Error 12,087,237 09 66 Std Error of Regression 3,476 67 67 Mean Abs Dev. (MAD) 2,473 42 68 Mean Abs % Err (MAPE) 2 10% 69 Durbin-Watson Statistic 0 934 70 Ljung-Box Statistic 519 21 71 Prob (Ljung-Box) 0.000

4462

WP/11-H-5.2/5 Page 14 of 16


ADJUSTEb WEATHER STATION DATA FOR THE TEST YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 31, 2016


4463

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Secondary Service Greater Than 10 KW Spline (B) Model Before Corrective Procedures for Autocorrelation

ON PP rrto

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2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 PACF

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Line No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

(a) Model: Before Corrective Procedures Dependent Variable: Estimation Begin Date: Estimation End Date:

(b) (c) (d) Primary Service Greater Than 10 KW Distribution Spline (B)

for Autocorrelation GPLDMWH January 1, 2013 December 31, 2015

(e)

r---""'"Vetiable7--- Coefaient StdErr T-Stat P:Vage=1 8 CONST 25713 992 125.141 205.48 0.00% 9 Calendar_13_15.DLSav -29.601 183 544 -0.161 87.19%

10 Calendar_13_15.Monday 2865.542 95.895 29.882 0.00% 11 Calendar_13_15.Tuesday 3384.369 93.89 36.046 0.00% 12 Calendar_13_15.Wednesday 3564.691 94.232 37.829 0.00% 13 Calendar_13_15.Thursday 3398.7 94.381 36 01 0.00% 14 Calendar_13_15.Friday 3250 5 94.498 34.397 0.00% 15 Calendar_13_15.Saturday 1049.575 93.643 11.208 0.00% 16 Calendar_13_15.MLK -205.316 488.032 -0.421 67.41% 17 Calendar_13_15.PresDay -328.137 490.482 -0.669 50.36% 18 Calendar_13_15.GoodFn -887.315 420.915 -2 108 3.52% 19 Calendar_13_15.MemDay -3519.702 488.654 -7.203 0.00% 20 Calendar_13_15.July4th -3323.124 488.178 -6.807 0.00% 21 Calendar_13_15.LaborDay -3861.335 492.617 -7.838 0.00% „ 22 Calendar_13_15.Thanks -3531.434 486.794 -7.254 0.00% 23 Calendar_13_15.FnAThanks -3429.566 487.589 -7.034 0.00% 24 Calendar_13_15.XMasWkB4 191.62 545.862 0.351 72.56% 25 Calendar_13_15.XMasEve -4321.443 504.073 -8.573 0.00% 26 Calendar_13_15.XMasDay -6365.671 503.956 -12.631 0.00% 27 Calendar_13_15.XMasWk -1835.674 512.399 -3.583 0.04% 28 Calendar_13_15 NYEve -2477.496' 504.075 -4.915 0.00% 29 Calendar_13_15.NYDay -5050.956 484.37 -10.428 0.00% 30 Calendar_13_15.XMasLights 23.594 10.946 2.156 3.13% 31 DayTypeVars.TimeTrend 180.694 30.642 5.897 0.00% 32 DayTypeVars.Feb -106.864 127.642 -0.837 40.26% 33 DayTypeVars.Mar 263.953 182.398 1.447 14.82% 34 DayTypeVars.Apr 329.051 224.374 1.467 14.28% 35 DayTypeVars.May 418.892 235 793 1.777 7.59% 36 DayTypeVars.Jun 40 344 257.713 0 157 87.56% 37 DayTypeVars.Jul 617.418 261.633 2.36 1.84% 38 DayTypeVars.Aug 1064.669 265.575 4.009 0.01% 39 DayTypeVars Sep 924.874 251.031 3.684 0.03% 40 DayTypeVars.Oct 611.126 229.102 2.667 0.78% 41 DayTypeVars.Nov -92.498 131.868 -0.701 48.32% 42 DayTypeVars.Dec -380.902 189.889 -2.006 4.51% 43 GPDDD_13_15.GPDCDD55 31.632 ' 22.292 1.419 15.62% 44 GPDDD_13_15.GPDCDDSO 44.051 33.441 1.317 18.80% 45 GPDDD_13_15.GPDCDD70 15.515 43.035 0.361 71.85% 46 GPDDD_13_15.GPDCDD75 37.809 58.193 0.65 51.60% 47 GPDDD_13_15.GPDCDD80 20.937 55.187 0.379 70.45% 48, GPDDD_13_15.GPDCDD85 -56.645 58.03 -0.976 32 92% 49 50 Rezession Stabštics 51 Adjusted Observations 1095 52 Deg. of Freedom for Error 1054 53 R-Squared 0 8630 54 Adjusted R-Squared 0.8580 55 F-Statistic 166 56 Prob (F-Statistic) 0.0000 57 Model Sum of Squares 4510237209 58 Sum of Squared Errors 714,401,724 59 Mean Squared Error 677,800.50 60 Std. Error of Regression 823.2900 61 Mean Abs. Dev. (MAD) 600.78 62 Mean Abs. % Err. (MAPE) 2.05% 63 Durbin-Watson Statistic 0.605 64 Ljung-Box Statistic 1475.96 65 Prob (Ljung-Box) 0.0000

4464

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Page 16 of 16




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Primary Service Greater Than 10 KW Distribution Spline (B) Model Before Corrective Procedures for Autocorrelation

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WP/II-H-5.3

Page 1 of 1

2017 RATE CASE,

ONCOR ELECTRIC DEEIVERY COMPANY LLC

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION


SPCiNSOR: D. E. NELSON


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WP/ 11-1-1 2 Page 1 of 1


II-1-1: CLASS REVENUE REQUIREMENT ANALYSIS TEST YEAR ENDING 12/31/2016 SPONSOR: J. M. SHERBURNE

WORKPAPER 1.2 - WHEREIN CERTAIN ACCOUNTS ARE SPLIT

,Line Acct Descnption Allocation TRAN DIST MET TBILL TDCS Total i

(WP/11-1-1.2) (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (0 (g) (i) (j) k

A454b Rent from Property Fiber Optics 100% 961,339 964,045 1,925,384 A454b1 Rent from Property: Fiber Optics Overhead 9% 86,521 86,764 173,285 A454b2 Rent from Property: Fiber Optics Underground 91% 874,818 877,281 1,752,100

Acct Description Allocation TRAN DIST MET TBILL TDCS Total (VVP/I1-1-2.1)

(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (9) (I) (j) rl

II-B-1

Ori inal Cost A364 Poles, Towers & Fixtures Total (WP/11-1-1 1) 1.000000 1,831,095,411 - 1,831,095,411 A364P Poles, Towers & Fixtures: Primary 0.733318 _ 1,342,775,670 .. - 1,342,775,670 A364S Poles, Towers & Fixtures. Secondary 0 266682 488,319,741 - - 488,319,741 A365 0 H. Conductors & Devices: Total (WP/11-1-1.1) 1.000000 1,062,602,126 - 1,062,602,126 A365P 0 H. Conductors & Devices Primary 0 825332 876,999,458 - 876,999,458 A365S 0 H. Conductors & Devices: Secondary 0.174668 - 185,602,668 - 185,602,668 A366 Underground Conduits Total (WP/11-1-1 1) 1.000000 - 807,368,041 - - 807,368,041 A366P Underground Conduits: Primary 0 585628 472,817,150 - 472,817,150 A366S s Underground Conduits Secondary 0 414372 - 334,550,891 334,550,891 A367 U.G. Conductors & Devices* Total (WP/11-1-1.1) 1.000000 1,792,557,473 - 1,792,557,473 A367P U.G. Conductors & Devices. Primary 0.763582 - 1,368,764,554 - - 1,368,764,554 A367S U G. Conductors & Devices* Secondary 0.236418 423,792,919 - 423,792,919 A368 Line Transformers Total (WP/11-1-1 1) 1 000000 1,934,310,639 - - - 1,934,310,639 A368P Regulators, Protectors, PnmaryTransformers 0.046369 - 89,691,266 - - 89,691,266" A368S Secondary Transformers 0 889787 1,721123,640 - 1,721,123,640 A368C Capacitors 0.063845 - 123,495,732 - - 123,495,732

II-B-5 Accumulated Depreciation A364 A364P A364S

Poles, Towers & Fixtures. Total (WP/ II-1-1 1) Poles, Towers & Fixtures Primary Poles, Towers & Fixtures. Secondary

1 000000 0 733318 0.266682

-

983,562,139 -

721264,060 - - 262,298,079

-

-

983,562,139 721,264,060 262,298,079

A365 0 H Conductors & Devices: Total (WP/11-1-1 1) A365P ' O.H. Conductors & Devices Primary

1 000000 0 825332 -

568,956,506 - 469,577,968 -

568,956,506 469,577,968

A365S 0 H Conductors & Devices. Secondary 0 174668 - 99,378,537 - - 99,378,537 A366 Underground Conduits. Total (WP/11-1-1 1) 1 000000 - 336,775,771 336,775,771 A366P Underground Conduits Pnmary 0 585628 197,225,246 - - 197,225,246 A366S Underground Conduits' Secondary 0 414372 - 139,550,525 139,550,525 A367 U.G Conductors & Devices' Total (WP/ II-1-1 1) 1 000000 - 529,959,433 - - 529,959,433 A367P U.G. Conductors & Devices: Primary 0 763582 404,667,464 - 404,667,464 A367S U.G Conductors & Devices Secondary 0.236418 125,291,969 ' 125,291,969 A368 Line Transformers. Total (WP/11-1-1 1) 1.000000 660,004,395 - - 660,004,395 A368P Regulators, Protectors, Primary Transformers 046369 ,0 - 30,603,476 30,603,476 A368S Secondary Transformers 0 889787 r - 587,263,051 - 587,263,051 A368C Capacitors 0.063845 - 42,137,868 42,137,868

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Oncor Electric Delivery System 2015 Analysis of System Losses

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