Photo of Brian Atwater describing tools and clues at Science PubPhoto by D. Scott Frey

Serial Crimes of Serial Crimes of SubductionSubduction: : Giant Earthquake & Tsunamis in Giant Earthquake & Tsunamis in

OregonOregon’’s Past & Futures Past & Future

OMSI Science PubOMSI Science PubBrian Atwater & Brian Atwater & YumeiYumei

WangWang

U.S.G.S. & OR Dept of Geology (DOGAMI)U.S.G.S. & OR Dept of Geology (DOGAMI)October 20, 2009October 20, 2009

Origin of EarthquakesOrigin of Earthquakes

Why is Pacific NW Unprepared?Why is Pacific NW Unprepared?

““Risk of Earthquakes in Oregon Very LowRisk of Earthquakes in Oregon Very Low““ Geologist John Eliot Allen, 1983 OregonianGeologist John Eliot Allen, 1983 Oregonian

””RecentRecent”” Seismic Info Seismic Info

Decades of Inadequate Decades of Inadequate

Oregon Building Codes Oregon Building Codes

1976 1976

%g Zone

1994 1994

~ Seismic Building Code Maps~ Seismic Building Code Maps

(10% PE in 50 yrs)(10% PE in 50 yrs)

((AlgermissenAlgermissen

& Perkins)& Perkins)

Oregon Earthquake Study (1998)Oregon Earthquake Study (1998)

Geography Layer

Earthquake Shaking

Soil Response

EstimatedDamage & Loss

Champion: Champion: ““Q9 The Earthquake KidQ9 The Earthquake Kid”” Oregon Senator Peter CourtneyOregon Senator Peter Courtney

Findings: Weak Buildings & TsunamiFindings: Weak Buildings & Tsunami

FOCUS: Weak Community BuildingsFOCUS: Weak Community Buildings

Emergency Facilities & Public SchoolsEmergency Facilities & Public Schools

VA Hospital. 1971 San Fernando CA, M6.6VA Hospital. 1971 San Fernando CA, M6.6

2008 China2008 China

19k students dead19k students dead

2005 Pakistan2005 Pakistan

8,000 schools8,000 schools

17k students dead17k students dead

2003 Algeria2003 Algeria

130 schools 130 schools

1988 Armenia1988 Armenia

>1,000 students dead>1,000 students dead 1964 Alaska magnitude 9.2 quakeSchool pulled apart by landslide

Earthquake Damage to SchoolsEarthquake Damage to Schools

Xing Fu Primary School (2008)Xing Fu Primary School (2008)

YingxiuYingxiu

Middle School (2008)Middle School (2008)

Seismic Engineering & ConstructionSeismic Engineering & Construction

Weak buildings can collapseWeak buildings can collapse

PostPost--19941994 seismic building codesseismic building codes-- adequateadequate..PrePre--19941994 seismic buildings codesseismic buildings codes-- inadequateinadequate. Some . Some older buildings are dangerousolder buildings are dangerous2001 Oregon laws require seismic safety in 2001 Oregon laws require seismic safety in

schoolsschools

& & emergency facilitiesemergency facilities

Require strengthening of existing Require strengthening of existing collapsecollapse--pronepronebuildingsbuildings

170 School Districts & 1,101 Schools170 School Districts & 1,101 Schools2,185 School Buildings2,185 School Buildings

273 Very High Risk273 Very High Risk745 High Risk745 High Risk501 Moderate Risk501 Moderate Risk666 Low Risk666 Low Risk

DOGAMIDOGAMI’’ss

REPORT (2007)REPORT (2007)

Risk Scores for Schools & Emergency Service Buildings (2007 DOGAMI report)www.oregongeology.org/sub/projects/rvs/default.htm

1,198 were built before 1950 1,198 were built before 1950

UUnnrreinforced einforced MMasonry (asonry (URMsURMs) )

94 94 URMsURMs

surveyed (1933 surveyed (1933 URMsURMs

outlawed in CA)outlawed in CA)

70 Schools collapsed. 120 damaged. 70 Schools collapsed. 120 damaged. 1933 Long Beach, CA Magnitude 6.31933 Long Beach, CA Magnitude 6.3

Buildings with Weak 1stBuildings with Weak 1st--Stories Stories

““Tilt upTilt up””

buildingsbuildings

Structural drawingsreveal seismic designloads not incorporated

Buildings in Tsunami ZoneBuildings in Tsunami Zone

Schools in Tsunami zone

Inundation in yellow areas

TimelineTimeline

2022 Emergency Facilities Fixed

2032 Schools Fixed

2007 DOGAMI Report: schools & emergency

facilities 2009 New Grant Program

2001 Safety Laws

2002 Ballot Measures

2009 Seismic Rehabilitation Grant Program2009 Seismic Rehabilitation Grant Programaka aka ““Courtney GrantsCourtney Grants””

Public Grade, Middle & High Schools

Community Colleges & Public Universities

Fire & Police Stations, & Hospitals

2009-11 Legislature: $30 million state bonds

$15 M Public Schools & $15 M Fire, Police, & Hospitals$15 M Public Schools & $15 M Fire, Police, & Hospitals

($1.2 B authorized by voters)($1.2 B authorized by voters)

VIDEO: VIDEO: www.oregongeology.orgwww.oregongeology.org/sub/earthquakes//sub/earthquakes/

Purpose of Purpose of ““CourtneyCourtney””

GrantsGrants

Eliminate collapseEliminate collapse--prone schoolsprone schools

Improve community preparedness Improve community preparedness

Schools & Emergency Facilities Schools & Emergency Facilities may augment state grant funds for may augment state grant funds for additional upgradesadditional upgrades

2009 Grant Programwww.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/

Quake Safe Schools (Risk Scores)www.ode.state.or.us/go/quakesafeschools/

Applications due Nov. 15, 2009!Applications due Nov. 15, 2009!

OndineOndine Residence Residence

Hall (1966) Hall (1966)

Portland Portland State State

UniversityUniversity

Weak floor prone to collapse

2005 Seismic Risk Management Program 2005 Seismic Risk Management Program Oregon University BuildingsOregon University Buildings

Cross Bracing Cross Bracing Installation in ProgressInstallation in Progress

Concrete Forms for Shear WallConcrete Forms for Shear Wall

Steel Plate WallSteel Plate Wall FloorFloor--toto--Floor ConnectionsFloor Connections

Rebar Coupler Problem DiscoveredRebar Coupler Problem Discovered & Improved& Improved

Earthquake & Tsunami PreparednessWhen you feel shaking,

“Duck, cover & hold”&

“Move inland & uphill”to protect from near-field tsunami

But…some coastal communities require tsunami vertical refuges

for Cascadia tsunamis

Impact of 1964 Alaska TsunamiImpact of 1964 Alaska Tsunami1964 Alaska Tsunami, Cannon Beach1964 Alaska Tsunami, Cannon Beach

Bridge alignment

Bridge ~300 m

Cannon BeachElementary School

Housefootprint

House ~400 m

Photo: Hillsboro Argus, March 30, 1964

Tsunami Vertical RefugesJapan

Indonesia?

USA

Conceptual DesignCannon Beach City Hall

Tsunami Evacuation Building

(Ecola

Architects)

by Jay by Jay RaskinRaskin, , YumeiYumei

Wang, Marcella M. Boyer, Wang, Marcella M. Boyer,

Javier Javier MoncadaMoncada, Kent Yu, & , Kent Yu, & Harry YehHarry Yeh

Hypothetical Locations inSeaside, OR

Modified from D.Cox

Build Tsunami Refuges in PNW

““Portland HotspotPortland Hotspot””

(red) = (red) = OregonOregon’’s fuel supply hubs fuel supply hub

““Portland HotspotPortland Hotspot””

Willamette River Willamette River

““Portland HotspotPortland Hotspot”” Surface Geology & Geology MapSurface Geology & Geology Map

Madin & others, 2009

Liquefaction & Lateral SpreadingLiquefaction & Lateral SpreadingBefore

During ShakingAfter

Sand supports loadsthrough grain-to-graincontacts

Fluid pressure risesGrains float apartSand loses strength& can flow downhillWater, sand ejected

Sand is compactedSand volcanoes onsurface

Liquefaction sand boils

Nisqually Wildlife Refuge (2001)

Courtesy: Nisqually Earthquake Clearinghouse

8/07 Japan quake

Liquefaction & Lateral Spreads

““Portland HotspotPortland Hotspot””

Tank FarmsTank Farms

““Portland HotspotPortland Hotspot””

Marine Oil TerminalsMarine Oil Terminals

Vulnerable PiersVulnerable Piers

Fuel PipelinesFuel Pipelines

Electrical Transmission Electrical Transmission

Landslide

Erosion

DAMAGE: 1999 Taiwan Quake

Slide: Leon Kempner, BPA, 11/05

DAMAGE: 1964 Alaska QuakeDAMAGE: 1964 Alaska QuakeDAMAGE: 1964 Alaska Quake

timber piles

timber timber pilespiles

ground displacement

ground ground displacementdisplacement

Liquefaction, sliding, uplifting, anchorage, firesLiquefaction, sliding, uplifting, anchorage, fires

1995 Kobe

1999 TurkeyBhuj, India

Liquefaction: Tanks Liquefaction: Tanks bouyantbouyant

Fix Schools & Emergency Fix Schools & Emergency FacilitiesFacilities Build Tsunami RefugesBuild Tsunami Refuges Reliable Fuel SupplyReliable Fuel Supply

Disaster Preparedness Disaster Preparedness Requires Risk Management Requires Risk Management for for FrequentFrequent (storms(storms……) &) &

InfrequentInfrequent (quakes(quakes……) disasters) disasterswww.oregongeology.com (DOGAMI)

Questions?Questions?