Olivier Haag Helsinki - Q2010 [email protected] Reengineering French structural business...

Olivier HaagHelsinki - Q2010

[email protected]

Reengineering French structural business statistics: redesign of the annual survey

The French annual survey of businessesOlivier Haag May 5th 2010

Outlines

›Presentation of the survey

›The introduction of a new statistical unit in our production process to manage the companies legal restructuring

›Description of the process used to merge survey and adminisrative data


The main goals of the ESA survey

›To publish the level and growth rate of aggregates for the different characteristics

›To determine the main activity of inquired businesses for the statistical register

›To answer to the Prodcom regulation for the manufacturing industry


A simplified questionnaire

›The Insee Annual Businesses Survey has been strongly lightened

›No question already existing in other administrative or fiscal source

› A gain of 64 % (in terms of number of questions asked)


The questionnaire organisation

›Six of the main production sectors ›A core section

–legal restructuring

–breakdown of turnover by different activity

›A sector specific section

=> About 200 types of different questionnaires


The particular treatment of the companies which participate to a legal restructuring

› Example of a merger

2008 2009

Company 4

APE : sector B

Company 1 :

APE sector A

Company 14APE : Sector Amarket

market

500 K€

1000 K€

1100 K€

100 K€

envelope

Flow intra envelope APE envelope: Sector A

Envelope 2009Envelope 2008APE : sector A APE : sector A


The creation of the envelope questionnaire

› For a characteristic X, for the current year

Where “i” represents a company

›For a characteristic X, for the year before

Where F is the flow intra envelop. It can be negative

Nenvi

Ni

N XX

FXXNenvi

Ni

N

1

11


An example of using the envelope (1/2)

Hypothesis

Company’s turnover in sector A is decreasing of 10% between 2008 and 2009

Company’s turnover of sector B is increasing of 20 % between 2008 and 2009

Tenv(2008) = 1000 + 600 – 500 = 1100 K€

Tenv( 2009) = 1100 K€

2008 2009

Company 4

APE : sector B

Company 1 :

APE sector A

Company 14APE : Sector Amarket

market

500 K€

1000 K€

1100 K€

100 K€

=> Calculation of the growth rate of turnover between 2008 and 2009


An example of using the envelope (2/2)

Results without the envelope

Sector A Turnover 2008 Turnover 2009 Sector B Turnover 2008 Turnover 2009 Company 1 1000 Company 4 600 Company 2 500 450 Company 5 200 240 Company 3 100 90 Company 6 100 120 Company 14 1100 Total 1600 1640 Total 900 360 Growth + 2.5 % Growth -60 %

The envelople permits to limit the impact of the legal restructuring in the economic results.

Sector A Turnover 2008 Turnover 2009 Sector B Turnover 2008 Turnover 2009

Enevlope

1100 1100 Company 5 200 240

Company 2 500 450 Company 6 100 120 Company 3 100 90 Total 1700 1640 Total 300 360 Growth - 3.7 % Growth + 20%

Results with the envelope

Hypothesis - 10% +20 %


The checking of the envelope by the clerks

›An envelope participates to the selective editing process

› If the envelope has to be checked–Clerks follow up the most important company of the

envelope‐To obtain the flow intra-envelope of the turnover

‐To obtain the breakdown of this flow by activities


Statistical frame

SIRENE

The different populations of statistical or administrative sources

ESA sample

ESA respondant

Tax data available

Employment data available

ESA sampling frame


Merging data for each company

…

TurnoverGoods salesProducts salesServices sales…

Survey data

…

TurnoverGoods salesProducts salesServices sales ….SalaryStaff size…

Tax data

…

DefinitiveTurnoverDefinitive Goods salesDefinitive Products salesDefinitive Services sales…….DefinitiveSalaryDefinitive Staff size…

Final dataEmployment data

…

SalaryStaff size…

REDI


Algorithm REDI to define the final turnover (1/2)

)(21

p

ss

XTXXscore

controltheforusednaggregatioofleveltheat

sourceprioritytheinXsticcharacteritheoftotalXT

sourcetheinXsticcharacteritheofvalueX

sourcetheinXsticcharacteritheofvalueX

p

S

S

)(

2

1

2

1

Surveyturnover

Tax turnover

Calculation of the score

Score > threshold

Definitive Turnover

Clerk’s decision

Priority source = tax

No

Yes


Algorithm REDI to define the final turnover (2/2)

Survey data

Calculation of correlated

characteristics

Calculation of correlated

characteristics

Definitive Turnover

Tax data

Final data

turnoverdefinitiveturnovertax

ortstaxortsdefinitive *

expexp

turnoverdefturnoversurvey

tingsubcontracsurveytingsubcontracdef .*.


First conclusion of this process

› For the turnover and its sales' breakdown › For a threshold or 1% and NACE's group as level of the

aggregation › Clerks had to check 2500 companies but only about 200 were

contacted › Main causes of discrepancies between the sources

– Problems of ID– Difference of the period of reference between the sources– Difference in the sales’ repartition not in the turnover

› The impact of this process was not negligible

Amounts in billion €

Characteristics Tax total Final total Turnover 3586 3591 Goods sales 1474 1462 Services sales 1159 931 Products sales 953 1198

Olivier Haag Helsinki - Q2010 [email protected] Reengineering French structural business...

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