OlgaM Industry 4.0 PH Nov 2018 WEB...
Transcript of OlgaM Industry 4.0 PH Nov 2018 WEB...
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Industry 4.0: Manufacturing Digital Transformation and Best Practices
Olga MemedovicDeputy Director, Chief, trade, Investment and Innovation Department, UNIDO
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Co-‐evolution of humans and technology
Agrarian revolution/
man and animal power
/generalists/ no waste
Urban agglomerations/man, animals water &mechanical power/ specialists/artisans/writing/
Electricity/automation/assembly line/DoL/GVC/Specialization /Waste creation /CO 2/ resource intensity
Steam/DoLand role of state/increase of waste
CYBER PHYSICAL SYSTEMS/ STEAM skills/generalists/ enhanced human capabilities/ Who we are? /EE &RE/O-‐waste!
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PEOPLE
BIG DATA & CLOUD
COMPUTING
CYBER-‐PHYSICAL SYSTEMS
SIMULATION & VISUALIZATION
MODELS
ADDITIVEMANUFACTURING (3D PRINTING)ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE
BLOCK CHAIN
IOT
IOP
IOE
IOEt
NBICS
4th Industrial Revolution=NIR=Convergence of technologies!
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Nature-‐based technologies and convergent technologies: nano-‐scale disruption with macro implications!
Cogno +
Info
Bio
Nano
Social & humanities
Biomimetic design and biomimicry: bioinspired materials mimic natural materials or living matter. Examples: light-‐harvesting photonic materials, which mimic photosynthesis; structural composites, which imitate the structure of nacre (aka mother-‐of-‐pearl), and metal actuators inspired by the movements of jellyfish
Bionics=science of constructing artificial systems that have some of the characteristics of living systems (e.g. intelligent devices that behave like human limbs)
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Nature-‐inspired technologies
Human Hearts From Stem Cells
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SyntheticBiology
Computer-‐modeling of the world
Human-‐Machine Interfaces
Pattern recognition
RobotsBiomedicine/physical enhancement
Sensors
Neuro/brain enhancement Convergent
Technologies(NBICS)
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21st century architecture
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Why Industry 4.0 is different?
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Speed of change: from incremental to exponential technological change
Dr. José Ramón Q ELEMENT López-‐Portillo R.
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Widespread implications
qAffecting all socio-‐economic sectors and and scientific disciplines and blurring the differences between them
ØTransforming the future of agriculture, mining, manufacturing, and the future of work, future of education, health, defence, cities. . .
qConvergence driving divergence: value is created by a recombination of complex technology ecosystems and cross-‐sectoral spill-‐overs
ØGenerating new fields of knowledge and technology; new activities, industries, sectors
ØCreate new materials with properties close to those of nature, or hybrid and reproduce nature-‐like schemes enabling circular economy and sustainability
ØCreating new business models: e-‐commerce; gig economy; shared economy, industry platforms, E-‐platforms for trade facilitation for SMEs inclusion
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Systemic impact, many eco-‐systems will have to adapt
qProspects to radically change developed capitalistic economies: redefying the role of market; the role of public and private sector; the role of the forth sector (the social and solidarity economy, social entrepreneurship)
qCompressed development: questioning traditional linear models of economic development-‐ From linear to network model of economic development-‐ From closed to open and collaborative innovation model-‐ Platform economy, gig economy, shared economy
q Educational systems reforms and STI mainstreaming
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How production systems will be affected?
oGVCs will be organized around naturally based, convergent and industrial digital technologies, determining what things we produce, how we produce them, and where.
oGVC will become shorter, more dynamic, flexible, efficient, sustainable, and with high possibilities for customization, personalization and localization.
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Future of GVC: horizontal and vertical integration
Dr. Carsten Polenz – SAP SE, presentation at the Bonn workshop on Industry 4.0: challenges for productivity, employment and inclusion, Bonn, 28-‐ 29.05.2018
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I4.0: The distribution of benefits from GVC: High value-‐added and job-‐creating activities will be possible in all segments of value chains GVC becoming flatter again : Who is smiling now? Made in the world, or made in country X?
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I4.0
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ENVIRONMENTAL RETURNS
SOCIALRETURNS
ECONOMICRETURNS
Extraordinary opportunities for realizing the SDGs
25% decrease in pollution
25% productivity gain Increased quality of life
§ High resource efficiency and effectiveness, particularly energy efficiency
§ Significant cuts in CO2 emissions
§ Better access to electricity and water
§ New materials and production processes: products and services, can be designed to save natural resources
§ Higher efficiency, productivity and opportunities
§ Economic diversification§ Increased revenues from
lower transaction costs, increased productivity, higher quality products, increased market share
§ Enhanced human physical and cognitive capabilities
§ Improvements in health and safety of workers
§ SMEs inclusion § inclusion of disadvantaged group§ A push for changes in education,
training systems, as well as for research and innovation
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Huge Challenges:We past the initial phase of current technology revolutions when only the opportunities were envisaged
Labor market/Inclusiveness
Job displacement faster then job replacements + demographic trends =rise in global unemployment, inequalities and migration
Affect nearly entire spectrum of professional groups, but mostly low skilled, routine tasks and even white collar jobs; appearance of new occupations
Impact of developing countries: technologies diffuse slowly and labourremains cheaper: can competition between I2.0 and I3.0 countries and I4.0 countries sustain?
Educational systems weak in developing countries/LDC especially , lacking basic skills; need for digital skills; STEAM; cognitive and social skills
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Mind the trade offs: Rebound Effect!
oIndustry 4.0 related technologies may facilitate more sustainable production, but can also be accompanied by rising demands for scarce resources such as (certain) metals
oIncreasing consumption of energyoAdditive manufacturing: increasing efficiency and reducing waste but can result in shortening of product lifecycles and increase in consumption in some industries
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4th Industrial revolution: Revolutionary but no revolutionary effects so far
Ø IT boosting productivity but not yet reflected in global GDP and productivity
Ø Slow I4.0 Uptake: Faster growth of ICT then global GDP and productivity
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Unequal distribution of and access to new technologies
Ø Concentrated in few sectors: IT, advance manufacturing (automotive, chemicals, consumer goods, healthcare, paper and packaging, industrial equipment, industrial automation, and semiconductor) software, logistics
Ø Concentrated in few countries: USA, UK, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Sweden, China, and Russia
Ø Infrastructure gap driving the digital divide
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Slow institutional adaptations
Institutions
Institutions: rules, regulations, norms, values standards, ethics, culture, leaderships attitudes change linearly while I4.0 technologies exponentially! Technological change far ahead of public policy!
Government and business leaders have little awareness of the speed of change!
There is a gap between perception of socioeconomic problems and the rapidly growing solutions and challenges that NIR can bring.
Taxes and subsides from where: what to tax? Leading players (TNCs) and the usage of robots?Introducing universal basic income
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No revolutionary effects so far, but we are likely at the very beginning of a
Tsunami of changes
because of disruptive potential and exponential technological change
Ø Preparedness is crucial for all countries!
Negligent applications of new technologies could lead to social tragedies and even global catastrophes, more devastating, than predictions of climate change.
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How are countries in Asia and Pacific prepared?
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WE
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WEF: FUTURE OF READINESS SCORE 2018
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WEF: Global Competitiveness Rankings 2018
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IMD; World Digital Competitiveness Ranking 2018
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Some Asian countries are more prepared than others?
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1991
1994
1997
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2003
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2009
2012
2015
Percent o
f GDP
Chinese R&D spending is rapidly approaching
US levels.
United States China
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Chinese universities award the most STEM bachelor degrees in
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United States China
01020304050607080
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
VC Investment ($ Billion
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Chinese VC investments account for nearly 40 percent of the global total.
United States China
Mathew J. Burrows, Director, Foresight, Strategy & Risks Initiative, presentation; Global forum on Convergent Technologies, Sochi, 2018
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China: Deficits: scientific citation of papers & patents
Mathew J. Burrows, Director, Foresight, Strategy & Risks Initiative, presentation; Global forum on Convergent Technologies, Sochi, 2018
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What has to be done?
Market and government failures related to new technological advancements and the role of collective actions in provision of public goods and correcting public bads: Industry 4.0 externalities (public goods and public bads) need to be addressed by collective actions at the national/sectoral, regional and global level!
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Waves of Industrial Policy Strategies1940s-‐1970s 1980s-‐1990s 2000s 2010s-‐2020s
EconomicDevelopment
Economic development throughindustrialization
Liberalization and povertyreduction key to economicdevelopment
ITC and Knowledge as key factors fordevelopment
Digital economy andinnovation in productionsystems
Rational for PolicyCorrect market failures through structuralcoordination
Market functioning determines countries’specialization
Increasing international competition.Systemic failures in global economy.
Global structural changes.Financial crisis highlightedsystemic failures.
Policy strategy Create new markets. Structural changesand diversification
The best industrial policy is no industrialpolicy.
Targeted strategies to increaseproductivity. Enabling institutionalenvironment
Technological and industrialecosystems development.Competences andcapabilities strategic assets
Policy level Vertical Industrial Policy. Focus onsectors. Gradual open to internationalcompetition. Import substitutions
No productive policies. Opening tointernational competition. Focus onhuman capital development.
Horizontal policies (entrepreneurship) andselective policies (strategic sectors).National competitiveness agendas.
Smart industrial policies(vertical but focused ontechnology trajectories andlocal opportunities). Public-‐private setting of nationalmissions
Instruments Protect Infant Industries. HardInfrastructure. Public R&D. Structuralfunds.
Foster human capitalaccumulation. Horizontalinnovation policies.
Public procurement. Incentives to innovation.Skills and capabilities development. Publicprocurement.
Technology developmentagencies. Smart publicprocurement. Multi-‐levelpublic-‐private coordination
ComplementaryPolicies
Capital movement management.Export-‐oriented productive policies.
FDI attraction as a strategy to nationalspecialization. Modernization of thestate
Management of FDI flows. Focus onnational competitiveness.
Strategic management ofFDI (assets protection).Strategic management ofinternational trade (USA)
Mario Cimoli, Deputy Executive Secretary, UN-‐ECLAC , Industrial Policy in an hyper-‐connected world, presentation at the Bonn workshop on Industry 4.0: challenges for productivity, employment and inclusion, Bonn, 28- 29.05.2018
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Made in China 2025(China)
Make in India(India)
Next Wave of Manufacturing(Australia)
ManufacturingInnovation(Republic of
Korea)
Industrial Value Chain Society 5.0)
(Japan)
Making Indonesia 4.0
(Indonesia)
Thailand 4.0(Thailand)
My-‐i4.0(Malaysia)
A S I A a n d PA C I F I C
R E S P O N S E
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Sectorial levelSingapore: Companies to use index to learn, evaluate, design and implement transformation initiatives
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Singapore:oDevelop talent: through Companies/Unions/Government cooperationoIdentify new skilled neededoSupport continuous education and capability buildingoPromote innovation: dedicated funding for selected technology domain, academic research, manpower, support innovative enterprises
oModel factories to foster innovation
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Role of multilateralism
qConvening and building awareness of the mega trendsqResearch and analysisqPolicy advice: industrial strategies/policies/programs/ Strategic frameworks for smooth transition to I4.0; for I4.0 uptake by SMEs; training provision
qTechnical cooperationØMonitoring processes: I4.0 reediness/maturity indices; I.40 capability indicesØNational, regional and sectoral innovation system building ØCapacity building at the macro-‐, meso-‐ and micro-‐levelØNorms and standard settingØSupporting I4.0 technology uptake; investment and technology promotion ØCreation of digital innovation ecosystems and associated business environment reforms
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Industry 4.0: Role of UNIDO Establishing multi-‐stakeholder knowledge sharing platforms to create awareness on Industry 4.0 opportunities and challenges for pursuing ISID in developing countries
Based on Industry 4.0 readiness analysis, support governments in the development of industry 4.0 roadmaps and innovation-‐friendly policies, regulations and standards
Development and application of indicators and measurement tools for an assessment of Industry 4.0 readiness
Capacity building to independently undertake Industry 4.0 readiness analysis for road mapping and policy advice
Training of SMEs with a view to enhance their capacity to prepare for adoption of Industry 4.0 technologies; SMEs’ guidlelines; digital kaizen
Creating international networks between local and renowned international institutions to strengthen local capacities/South South Cooperation;PCP mobilizing multi-‐stakeholder resources
GLOBAL FORUM AND AWARENESS RAISING
ROADMAPPING AND POLICY ADVICE
INDUSTRY 4.0 READINESS ANALYSIS
INDUSTRY 4.0 OBSERVATORY
TECHNICAL COOPERATION
PARTNERSHIPS &NETWORKS
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Collective actions at the regional level; from shallow to deep regional integrationo Digital Infrastructure issues: access to Internet and bridging digital divideo Data issues: data regulations and management, allowing cross-‐border interactions; informing policy (SMEs
o Regional value chains and innovation networks: trade capacity building and setting standards for interoperability and mechanism of enforcement
o Supporting new business models: e-‐commerce; gig-‐economy (“human cloud”); sharing economyo Supporting building digital innovation ecosystems and their regional networking
o Harmonize business environment to be able to operate at regional scale.
o Establish regional agreements on taxation and social protection
o Harmonize laws and regulations between countries, and promoting open access to Asian businesses.o Standardizing reforms in educationo Mainstreaming STIo Labor mobility issues o Role of regional integration initiatives and I4.0: ASEAN Integration Initiative (IAI) and work plans and CLVM (Cambodia; Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar) as less developed in the region; ACMECS strategy ( AYEYAWADY-‐Chao Phraya-‐ Mekong Economic Cooperation): and role of UNIDO to Support IAI
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THANK YOU