Oil Market Outlook The world has changed… The DNB oil story in pictures & graphs

January 2015 - Torbjørn Kjus

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 2

Conventional vs Unconventional – The World Has Changed - Moving to the “kitchen” instead of the “living room” (Source: USGS)

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 3

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66

Shale Crude Output Growth Has Been Offset By Outages - Shale crude production growth is starting to catch up – What happens next three years with unplanned outages??

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With This Enormous Growth In Shale Oil Production: - why are not oil prices below 100 $/b already?

US shale crude production US FWD shale crude production

Source: PIRA Energy, DNB Markets

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Growth In Unplanned Outages Have More Than Offset Shale Crude Output - is that sustainable also gowing forward?

US shale crude production US FWD shale crude production

Change unplanned disruptions since 2010 Unplanned disruptions FWD

Source: PIRA Energy, DNB Markets

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Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 5

IEA’s Forecasts For US Production Growth Far Too Low So Far - IEA’s first take on 2012 US production growth was at 45 kbd - now 2012 growth is estimated to have been 1.04 million b/d - For 2013 the forecasted growth was 479 kbd, now the number is revised up to 1.14 million b/d - For 2014 the initial estimate was 700 kbd, now the estimate is revised up to 1.51 million b/d

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IEA Forecasted YoY Growth In US Liquids Production

2012 2013 2014 2015Source: IEA Monthly Oil Market Reports

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 6

Nobody Were More Bearish Than DNB In October - But we were not bearish enough

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 7

Long Term Oil Price Forecast – Current (The forecast is for the average of the rolling 1st month ICE Brent future contract)

Historical HistoricalNominal $/b Real (2015) $/b

2001 24.4 32.22002 25.0 32.42003 28.8 36.52004 38.3 47.22005 54.5 65.02006 65.1 75.32007 72.4 81.32008 97.3 105.22009 61.7 67.02010 79.5 84.92011 111.3 115.22012 111.7 113.32013 108.7 108.72014 99.5 99.5

Forecast ForecastNominal $/b Real (2015) $/b

Q1-15 55 55Q2-15 63 63Q3-15 69 69Q4-15 74 742015 65 652016 80 792017 84 812018 88 842019 90 842020 90 82

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Spot Brent History & FWD looking

FWD (nominal) Forecast nominal

Historical Forecast real (2014 USD)Source: Reuters, DNB Markets

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 8

What Is Different From The 2012-Correction - Deeper and longer drop now and the key difference is the contango which suggest a much weaker physical market than in 2012

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Brent 1st Month FutureDays below 100 $/b

2012 spring correction 2014 downturnSource: Reuters

Daily QLCOc1, QLCOc3 31/07/2007 - 23/06/2015 (LON)

Spread, QLCOc1, Trade Price(Last), QLCOc3, Trade Price(Last), 1.0, 1.026/01/2015, -2.40Line, QLCOc1, Trade Price(Last)26/01/2015, 48.25

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Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 9

The Market Has Been Over-supplied Through 2014 - The red line is our view on 2015

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DNB Markets World Oil Supply-Demand Balance (time phased)

5 year range 5 year avg 2013 2014 2015Source: IEA, DNB Markets

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 10

How Can Anyone Doubt That The Market Is Over Supplied? - Global oil stocks (excl. Chinese strategic stocks) are building massively. This is a function of supply being larger than demand.

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Global Crude & Product Stocks - JODI-dataJODI-data are adjusted for countries w ith irregular reporting - and China is added w ith Xinhua New s Agency Data

2011 2012 2013 2014Source: JODI, DNB Markets

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66

The Saudi Royal Family (Source Wikipedia)

Abdul Aziz (Ibn Saud) •King: 1902-1953 •Founded Saudi Arabia in 1932 •22 wives (4 at a time) •45 sons of which 6 have been kings

King Saud •King: 1953-1964 •Forced out

King Faisal •King: 1964-1975 •Killed

King Khalid •King: 1975-1982 •Heart Attack

King Fahad •King: 1982-2005 •Stroke

King Abdullah •King: 2005-2015 •Regent since 1995 •Unifying and popular •6 sons

Crown Price Sultan •Died 23.10.2011

Crown Price Nayef •Ultra conservative •23rd son of Ibn Saud •Full brother of King Fahad •Died 16.06.2012

King Salman •80 years old •Full brother of King Fahad •25th son of Ibn Saud •Well regarded •Trusted mediator •Had a stroke in 2010 •Pro economic reforms •, but slow for social reasons •Has 11 sons

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New Crown Price Muqrin •70 years old, 35th and youngest surviving son of Ibn Saud •Mother from Yemen (18th spouse of Ibn Saud) •Was an air force pilot educated at Britain RAF College in Cranwell •In favour of sanctions instead of military action vs Iran •Appreciated by the Saudi public, no corruption or negative activities •Believed by many to be a liberal within the family •Has 6 sons

New Deputy Crown Price bin Nayef •58 years old, son of late Crown Prince Nayef •Educated in the US - Political Science •The most pro-American Saudi minister •First successor from the third generation

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 12

We Are Not Set To Return To The Trend Line - All the changes to oil demand in recent years are not all cyclical, there are also structural elements to them like efficiency improvements and substitution

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1.1% annual growth

1.7% annual growth

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66

Better Oil Demand Growth At Prices Below 100 Dollars

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sOil Above 100 Dollars Negatively Affects Demand Growth

Real oil price (LHS) Demand growth 5-year mavg (RHS)Source: BP stats, IEA, DNB Markets

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 14

Reduced Oil Burden May Support Oil Demand Growth - The lower oil burden may increase the oil intensity back to 0.4 from 0.2 in 2014 (oil demand as a factor of GDP-growth)

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Oil Demand Change Per Unit Real GDP Change (oil intensity) vs Oil Burden(Average: last 20 years is 0.4, last 10 years is 0.3 - both excluding 2008-09)

Oil Intensity 5-year mavg - LHS Oil Burden - RHSSource: BP stats, IEA, IMF, DNB Markets

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 15

US Oil Demand Improving On Lower Oil Prices - Gasoline demand very strong since the autumn – People driving more coupled with lower fuel efficiency

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US Total Demand(Product Supplied)

Range 5 year avg2014 2015Source: US DOE

13.013.413.814.214.615.015.415.8

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US Demand 4 Main Products (4 week mavg)(Product Supplied: Gasoline, Distillates, Jet, Residual Fuel)

Range 5 year avg 2014 2015Source: US DOE

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US Gasoline Demand 4 week mavg(Product Supplied)

Range 5 year avg 2014 2015Source: US DOE

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US Distillate Demand 4 week mavg(Product Supplied)

Range 5 year avg 2014 2015Source: US DOE

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 16

Chinese Oil Demand Growth Improving - Gasoline demand growth still strong and diesel on the mend after infrastructure projects

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/dYear on Year Calculated Chinese Demand

(Demand is refinery runs plus net product imports.Figures are adjusted for inventory changes since Feb 2009)

Source: China OGP, Xinhua News, The Chinese General Administration & Customs, National Bureau of Statistics

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 17

CAPEX Guided Down 28% - Rig Count Guided Down 42% - Production guided to rise 10%, but we think CAPEX guiding and rig count will drop even more than guided below

Source: US Capital Advisors

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 18

Prices Have Reached Unsustainable Levels For Shale - Will the shale players be able to service their debt and continue to invest at 50 $/b WTI prices?

Lifting costs in $/b (including some G&A costs) 12Interest rate: 5%WTI price ($/b) 50NGL's price as percentage of crude price: 50%Company name: EOG Chesapeake Pioneer Whiting Continental Concho Noble Cimarex Crescent Oasis AverageCrude production kbd 320 125 100 100 140 80 110 47 135 45 120Crude diff average to WTI in Q2/Q3 ($/b) -0.3 -9.0 -7.6 -10.2 -11.2 -10.7 -1.0 -10.1 -6.1 -9.3 -7.6Achieved crude price at assumed WTI price $/b 49.7 41.0 42.4 39.8 38.8 39.3 49.0 39.9 43.9 40.7 42.5Revenue from crude sales million USD 5,802 1,872 1,547 1,452 1,981 1,148 1,966 685 2,164 669 1,929NGL's production kbd 90 100 45 11 0 0 35 40 0 0 32NGL price $/b 24.8 20.5 21.2 19.9 19.4 19.7 24.5 20.0 22.0 20.4 21.2Revenue from NGL's sales million USD 1,248 3,139 164 10 0 0 409 219 0 0 519Natural gas production (million cubic meters/day) 38.0 86.0 10.0 2.5 11.0 7.5 32.0 15.0 2.3 0.9 21Natural gas price $/cm 0.10 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.15 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.17 0.11Revenue from natgas sales million USD 1,387 2,197 365 91 522 411 934 548 101 56 661Revenue pr year million USD 8,437 7,208 2,076 1,553 2,503 1,559 3,310 1,451 2,265 725 3,109Total production in oil equivalents 650 830 200 125 200 120 315 180 150 48 282Lifting costs 2,847 3,635 876 548 876 526 1,380 788 657 210 1,234Long Term debt by Q3-2014 (million USD) 5,910 11,592 2,662 2,753 5,834 3,378 5,621 1,500 2,583 2,550 4,438Interest rate costs 2015 (million USD) 296 580 133 138 292 169 281 75 129 128 222Total Debt Ratio (Q3- 2014) 49% 60% 46% 56% 67% 53% 53% 49% 36% 69% 54%Calculated free cash flow 2015: 5,295 2,993 1,067 868 1,336 864 1,649 588 1,479 387 1,653CAPEX 2014 8,350 5,104 3,494 2,920 4,593 2,483 4,849 2,122 2,023 1,380 3,732Calculated change in CAPEX for 2015 -3,055 -2,111 -2,427 -2,052 -3,257 -1,619 -3,200 -1,534 -544 -993 -2,079Debt/Free cash flow 1.1 3.9 2.5 3.2 4.4 3.9 3.4 2.6 1.7 6.6 3.3Calculated decrease in CAPEX if no new debt 37% 41% 69% 70% 71% 65% 66% 72% 27% 72% 59%

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 19

Horizontal Rig Count Must Drop Going Forward - The process has just started

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US horizontal oil rigs

Source: Baker Hughes, PIRA Energy

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 20

A Drop In The Rig Count Could Lead To Lower Output - Unlike the 2012/13-period we now look to need more rigs to grow output as output per rig is growing more slowly in 2014

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Shale oil production vs horizontal oil rigs(since 2011)

Source: US DOE, Baker Hughes rig count, DNB Markets

y = 3.8408x - 717.83R² = 0.9917

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Shale oil production vs horizontal oil rigs(latest year)

Source: US DOE, Baker Hughes rig count, DNB Markets

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US shale crude oil production per horizontal oil rig

Source: US DOE, Baker Hughes, DNB Marklets

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 21

The Adjustment Will Not Be Without Pain For Many Players - The tone is set - CAPEX in the oil industry will be lowered – A lot!!!

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 22

Prices Can Recover Before The Supply-Demand Balance - 2009 is a good example – Oversupplied through the first half but prices rising from 40 $/b to 70 $/b from January to July

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2009 DNB Markets World Oil Supply-Demand Balance (time phased)

Source: IEA, DNB Markets

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OECD Total Oil Industry Stocks (IEA-data)

Brent Price OECD Oil StocksSource: IEA, Reuters

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66 23

Not Only Spot Prices Recovered Before The S/D-Balance - We think the same thing will happen during 2015 – The oil price will start to recover before the S/D-balance is fixed

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Historical Brent Forward Curves(The whole strip moved upwards in 2009)

Historical spot price 24-Dec-08 30-Jul-09Source: Reuters, DNB Markets

Strip up almost 20 $/b

Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66

Spare Capacity Still Much Lower Than In The 1980’s - An equally long period with low prices as in the 1980-90’s should not be the most plausible scenario

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Torbjørn Kjus – torbjorn.kjus@dnb.no – Telephone: +47 24 16 91 66

Oslo, Sales & Trading London, Sales Oslo, Research Nils Fredrik Hvatum +47 24 16 91 59 Ane Tobiassen +44(0) 20 7621 6082 Torbjørn Kjus +47 24 16 91 66 Fredrik Sagen Andersen +47 24 16 91 48 Singapore, Sales Karl Magnus Maribu +47 24 16 91 57 Jesper Meyer Hatletveit +47 24 16 91 53 Seng Leong Ong +65 622 480 22 Nils Wierli Nilsen +47 24 16 91 61 New York, Sales Andre Rørheim +47 24 16 91 64 Kenneth Tveter +1 212 681 3888 Erik Warren +47 24 16 91 46

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