OIL-IN-THE-SEA 2002 OIL-IN-THE-SEA 2002 PRESENT & FUTURE PREDICTIONS NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL.
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Transcript of OIL-IN-THE-SEA 2002 OIL-IN-THE-SEA 2002 PRESENT & FUTURE PREDICTIONS NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL.
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OIL-IN-THE-SEA2002
OIL-IN-THE-SEA2002
PRESENT & FUTURE PREDICTIONS
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
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STATEMENT OF TASKS:STATEMENT OF TASKS:
1. UPDATE 1975 & 1985 REPORTS
2. REVIEW FUTURE PETROLEUM RESERVES & CONSUMPTION
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24080160 2000200600Natural Seeps
AVERAGE ANNUAL RELEASES of PETROLEUM
4.32.33.0 622038Extraction of Petroleum
Transportation of Petroleum
117.49.1 260120150
Consumption of Petroleum
20001984 6000130480
2300110260 83004701300TOTAL
WorldwideNorth AmericaMax.Min.Best Est.Max.Min.Best est.
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EXISTING STATUS OF RESERVESEXISTING STATUS OF RESERVES
TRENDS IN PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTIONTRENDS IN PRODUCTION & CONSUMPTION
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WORLD OIL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
60 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
YEAR
(mil
lio
ns
bb
l/d
ay)
Production
Consumption
From: Davis, 2000
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U.S. OIL PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
60 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
YEAR
(mil
lio
ns
bb
ls/d
ay)
Production
Consumption
From: Davis, 2000
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FUTURE TRENDS – OIL & GASFUTURE TRENDS – OIL & GAS
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ENERGY CONSUMPTION & IMPORTS
• IN NEXT 20 YEARS, U.S. OIL CONSUMPTION INCREASE BY33% AND NATURAL GAS BY 50%
• PRODUCTION IN U.S., CANADA, SOUTH AMERICA, EUROPE
AND AFRICA WILL BE DEPLETED IN 50 YEARS
• U.S. IMPORTS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY IN NEXT 50 YRS.
• IRAQ, SAUDI ARABIA, UAE, KUWAIT, & KAZAKHSTAN
HAS RESERVES FOR NEXT CENTURY
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LESS THAN 10 YEARS 10 TO 50 YEARS
United States ChinaCanada Nigeria*
United Kingdom AlgeriaIndonesia* Columbia
Norway OmanEgypt India
Argentina Qatar*Australia RomaniaEcuador Yemen
Brunei
50 TO 100 YEARS MORE THAN 100 YEARS
Saudi Arabia Iraq*Russia United Arab Republics*
Iran* Kuwait*Venezuela* Kazakhstan
Mexico TurmenistanLibya* TunisiaBrazil Uzebekistan
AzerbaijanTrinidad (World's Remaining Oil in 75 Years)
OIL SUSTAINABILITY - CURRENT RATE OF PRODUCTION
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Is the U.S. destined to remain dependent onMiddle East oil for the next 50 decades?
Is the U.S. destined to remain dependent onMiddle East oil for the next 50 decades?
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GAS HYDRATE SAMPLEGAS HYDRATE SAMPLE
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GAS HYDRATE HILL IN GULF OF MEXICOGAS HYDRATE HILL IN GULF OF MEXICO
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WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTIONOF GAS HYDRATES
WORLDWIDE DISTRIBUTIONOF GAS HYDRATES
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164
200000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
Tri
llio
n C
ub
ic F
eet
US Natural Gas US Methane Hydrates
If only 1% of reserves recovered – 2,000 tcf
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NEXT FIVE DECADES
• ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN US WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
• U.S. MUST ACCELERATE RESEARCH ON GAS HYDRATES
• PRODUCTION IN US WILL DECLINE & BE DEPLETED
• MORE MARITIME TRAFFIC – INCREASE CHANCE OF SPILLS
• IMPORTS TO NORTH AMERICA WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
• PETROLEUM HYDROCARBON POLLUTION FROM COASTAL
FACILITIES WILL INCREASE
• POLLUTION FROM O&G OPERATIONS WILL DECREASE
• TO REDUCE PETROLEUM HYDROCARBON POLLUTION, NEW
REGULATIONS WILL HAVE TO BE PUT INTO PLACE TO
CURB URBAN RUNOFF
• NATURAL SEEPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN SOURCE OF
POLLUTION