OIL & ENERGY MARKETS: SHIFTING LANDSCAPE, TRADING ...

OIL & ENERGY MARKETS:

SHIFTING LANDSCAPE, TRADING OPPORTUNITIES

June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,

Trading Opportunities 1

Gunvor – Integrated Global Trading



A Balanced Trading Portfolio

Crude Oil(60%)

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

Gasoline

Naphtha

LPGBiofuel

Crude Oil (30%)

Fuel Oil

Gasoil

NatGas + LNG

Coal

Gasoline

Naphtha LPG Biofuel

2009: 98 MT mn 2012: 130 MT mn



GEOGRAPHICAL

EXPANSION

PRODUCT

DIVERSIFICATION

INVESTMENTS

ALONG THE

VALUE CHAIN

• New Offices

• New Partnerships

• Expanded Trading

• New Desks

• Acquisitions

• Greenfield Projects

• Brownfield Projects

Group Strategy



• Ust Luga Oil Products Terminal (Russia) 100%

• Ust Luga Crude Oil Pipeline (Russia) 50%

• Novorossiysk Fuel Oil Terminal (Russia) 50%

• Petroterminal de Panama, S.A. (Panama) 16%

• Independent Belgium Refinery BV (Belgium) 100%

• Gunvor Raffinerie Deutschland GmbH (Germany) 100%

• TAL Pipeline (Italy, Austria, Germany) 10%

Signal Peak (United States) 33%

• LLC Kolmar (Russia) 30%

• Keaton Energy Holdings Ltd (South Africa) 24%

• Lagansky Block (Caspian Sea) 30%

Midstream

Downstream

Upstream

Gunvor – Investment Strategy

Across the Value Chain



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Inter-fuel & inter-region price divergence

LNG Japan cif US Henry Hub

OECD crude imports NW Eur steam coal

A Changing Oil & Energy Price Backdrop

Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape, Trading Opportunities

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US refiner crude stocks, kb

Price-inventory relationship weakens after 2004

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$/b

bl

Crude price & economic expectations

S&P500 ICE Brent

6 June 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,

Trading Opportunities

Changing Financial Framework Too

Public equity & debt offerings of physical commodity traders, $US billion

An Evolving U.S. Oil Landscape



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US crude oil production

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US net oil products exporter since mid-2011

Total products imports Total products exports

Graphic: Financial Times

Other New Upstream Hotspots Too..

…Many with High Political or Infrastructure Risk

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/d

The IEA view on Iraqi supply potential

Central scenario

High case

Iraq: physical potential, logistic/political barriers



Source: IEA 2012



Global Trade and GDP Growth

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Economic risks & oil demand

oil demand impact IMF 09/11 IMF 10/12

low growth IMF 4/13

source: WTO

Macro Outlook Uncertainty

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Oil demand growth now an emerging market story

OECD growth China growth Other non OECD growth

Energy Demand: Relentless Shift to Emerging Markets

Primary Energy Growth 2011-2030 Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030



Oil & Transport Grab the Headlines,

but Power Sector Runs on Coal

source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2012

source: ExxonMobil, Energy Outlook 2013



Rising Gas Supplies & Inroads to the Transport Sector

Source: IEA MTGMR 2012

Source: ExxonMobil

New LNG Supplies 2011-2017



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China oil demand and GDP growth

oil demand growth GDP growth

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China Looms Large as Oil & Energy Demand Motor

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China

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$/b

bl

Margins unexpectedly strong in 2012...

...but weaker ex-US in 2013

SING Crack Dubai N.WE crack Brent Med Crack Urals

USG crack LLS Chicago crack WTI

New East of Suez Capacity

Puts European Refining Under Pressure

• Declining local demand, plus surge in new capacity east of Suez…

• …means focus of rationalisation is in Europe

• North America shielded by cheap feedstock & energy costs

• Some OECD Asian capacity benefits from proximity to growth markets

• Distressed capacity being converted to storage, sold to NOCs & trading

companies or closed

IEA 2012

Rising Refined Products Trade

• US is already seeing rising crude output, less imports, maturing oil

demand, so trade shifts to products exports

• New refining capacity in the Middle East and other producing areas,

emergence of India and China as exporters of key products

• Global products trade may grow faster than crude in the next decade

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Refining additions vs oil demand growth 2011-2017

Primary refining additions Oil demand growth





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01 January 2022

01 January 2024

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HU

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AP

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)

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IMO/ECA

EU

CARB

HFO

MDO/MGO

MGO

LSFO

MGO MDO

Bunker Sulphur Specs Will Affect Trade Too

Pump It Move It Refine It Store It Sell It Move It

17 May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,


A Bright Future for the Trading Companies

Assets must enhance, or benefit from, core business

• More diversified geographically, across products

and along the value chain

• But trading remains central

May 2013 Oil & Energy Markets: Shifting Landscape,


Thank you for your attention

OIL & ENERGY MARKETS: SHIFTING LANDSCAPE, TRADING ...

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