Ohio Public Employees Retirement System ANNUAL …

Ohio Public Employees Retirement System 277 East Town Street, Columbus, Ohio 43215 1.800.222.7377 | www.opers.org

2021Ohio Public Employees Retirement System

ANNUAL INVESTMENT PLANDefined Benefit Fund | Health Care 115 Trust Fund

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents

Chief Investment Officer’s Letter……………………………………………………………………...1

Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………………….2

Defined Benefit Fund....………………………………………………………………………………. 5

Health Care Fund……………………………………………………………………………………….8

ASSET CLASS STRATEGIES………..……………………………………………………………….11

Tactical Outlook……………………………………………………………………………………….11

Performance Expectations – Excess Return Targets……………………………………………..16

Public Equity…………………………………………………………………………………………...16

Fixed Income…………………………………………………………………………………………..16

Alternatives…………………………………………………………………………………………….17

Risk Parity……………………………………………………………………………………………...18

POLICIES, COMMITTEES AND RESOURCES…………………………………………………….19

OPERS Retirement Board Policies Governing Investment Activities…………………………...19

Staff Committee Structure……………………………………………………………………………20

Staffing…………………………………………………………………………………………………21

Organizational Structure ………………………..…………………………………………………...24

CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER’S LETTER

Page 1

Chief Investment Officer’s Letter

Members of the Ohio Public Employees Retirement System’s Retirement Board:

In collaboration with the Investments Division and OPERS consultants, I am pleased to present the 2021 Annual Investment Plan (AIP). The AIP lays out the performance goals

for the Investment Division and provides a framework for OPERS to achieve its long-term goal of

secure retirement benefits for our members. In addition to performance targets, the AIP

illustrates how OPERS seeks to achieve those goals along with the constraints, risks, and

resources the Investments Division must work with to achieve the long-term return target.

In last year’s AIP, I wrote that the Investment Staff was prepared to meet the investment challenges in 2020. While, I could never have predicted COVID-19, this past year proved how

well prepared our Staff was to handle these challenges. From navigating the volatility in the markets, to the seamless transition to work-from-home, the Investments Division was able take on

each of these assignments without compromising the quality of our output. In particular, Staff successfully implemented internal and operational initiatives while continuing to generate excess

returns for both the Defined Benefit and Health Care Funds throughout the year.

The past year was the most volatile year for U.S. equities since 2009, prompting the

Federal Reserve to cut interest rates from 1.5% to 0%, and pressuring Congress to pass

two of the largest stimulus packages in U.S. history: the $2 trillion CARES Act passed in

March, and the $900 billion pandemic relief bill passed in December. The combined

effect has benefited the markets, pushing the S&P 500 to an all-time high of 3,756 on

December 31, 2020 after dipping to 2,237 earlier in the year. After all this turmoil in 2020,

Staff produced a 12.02% return for the Defined Benefit Fund, exceeding the 7.2% target

return. The results were similar for the Health Care Fund which returned 10.96%,

exceeding its target return of 6.0%. As of December 31, 2020, net assets of the Defined

Benefit Fund and the Health Care Fund were $98.4 billion and $13.4 billion,

respectively, exceeding the asset growth targets for both funds. The combined assets of

the two OPERS funds achieved an all-time high market value of $111.8 billion.

Staff would like to acknowledge the assistance and advice of OPERS Investment Advisors.

While consultants to OPERS Retirement Board and Staff are strictly advisory, their

knowledge, experience, and insights are valued and appreciated. Staff would also like to

acknowledge the critically important work of many others at OPERS who make

the Investments Division’s work possible. While a complete list is impossible, the

invaluable assistance of Investment Accounting and Operations, Compliance, Legal Services,

Information Technology, Executive Services, Audit, Human Resources, and Enterprise Risk

are greatly appreciated.

Finally, I would like to thank the OPERS Retirement Board members for their confidence in

Staff, for the resources they make available to us, and for their continued judicious oversight

of the Investments Division for our members.

OPERS 2021 INVESTMENT PLAN

January 19, 2021

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

OPERS 2021 INVESTMENT PLAN Page 2

Executive Summary

The following Summary outlines the strategies, asset allocation, and the asset class strategies for OPERS Defined Benefit and Health Care Funds. This Summary also includes initiatives and resources as well as performance and risk expectations.

Fund Strategies

The Defined Benefit Fund (“DB Fund”) is working towards the recently approved dynamic asset allocation at the January 2021 meeting. Staff expects the transition to complete and reach the new allocation targets by the end of Q1 2021. The Health Care Fund (“HC Fund”) will continue transitioning toward its strategic asset allocations as part of the Asset-Liability Study approved by the OPERS Retirement Board at the October 2020 meeting for the Health Care Fund.

The following table outlines the projected base case returns with ranges for both the Defined Benefit and Health Care Funds. The base case 2021 Fund return expectations are slightly lower than 2020 for both the Defined Benefit and Health Care Funds due to lower expected returns for Fixed Income and Alternatives Asset Class.

*Source: 2021 NEPC Capital Market Expectations applied to OPERS Strategic Asset Allocation targets

The active returns shown above incorporate an information ratio of 0.40. This ratio measures the active return per unit of tracking error (active risk), which is a risk-adjusted return metric.

Base Case Return Active Tracking Information

Return* Range Return Error Ratio

2021 6.40 -7.35 to 20.15 0.36 0.90 0.40

2020 6.58 -7.17 to 20.33 0.38 0.95 0.40

2019 7.22 -6.53 to 20.97 0.42 1.05 0.40

2021 5.38 -7.12 to 17.88 0.26 0.66 0.40

2020 5.64 -6.86 to 18.14 0.26 0.66 0.40

2019 6.44 -6.06 to 18.94 0.31 0.78 0.40

Defined Benefit Fund

Health Care Fund

3 year Alpha 1 year Alpha

Target Target

2021 0.22 0.36

2020 0.23 0.38

2019 0.42

2021 0.16 0.26

2020 0.17 0.26

2019 0.31


Health Care Fund

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


Asset Allocation and Asset Class Strategies

NEPC, OPERS Retirement Board retained Investment Advisor, has recommended dynamic

asset allocation changes for the DB Fund in 2021 with Staff support. No changes are planned for the HC Fund asset allocation. Staff will continue its focus on reviewing the existing

line-up of managers, strategies, and portfolios in the context of internal versus external management with an emphasis on management fees, staffing and system resources needed

to bring additional assets in-house.

The Public Equity allocation in the Defined Benefit and Health Care Funds targets the market-

based global weighting between U.S. Equity and Non-U.S. Equity in the MSCI All Country World

Index-Investable Market Index (“MSCI ACWI-IMI”). The current asset allocation targets for U.S.

Equity and Non-U.S. Equity are static in both the DB and HC Funds. (Refer to pages 5 and 8 for

target allocations for the DB and HC Funds). Currently, Staff manages the U.S. Equity sub-asset class by utilizing a factor framework to improve the capital allocation and derive efficiency.

With regard to the Fixed Income allocation, Staff is reviewing the current mix of external managers within the Emerging Markets Debt and High Yield sub-asset classes to achieve

lower fees and more consistent performance. The High Yield sub-asset class is increasingly

being managed internally with 50% of the assets now managed in-house. This provides

improved liquidity, better risk-adjusted returns and lower fees.

Within the Alternatives asset class, Staff is managing the liquidation of the Hedge Fund portfolio. The Private Equity commitment pace will continue to be elevated to achieve the target allocation

of 12%, set by the 2019 Asset-Liability study. Staff will focus on small to middle market Private

Equity strategies in developed markets and will continue to build out a diversified co-investment

program within the DB Fund. In the Private Real Estate sub-asset class, Staff will continue the strategy of seeking attractive core and non-core investments.

Staff will continue to monitor the progress and report to the OPERS Retirement Board through the quarterly AIP update report, along with the Board Consultant’s performance report.

Initiatives

Each year the Investments Division undertakes significant initiatives to enhance the capabilities

and performance of the Funds. The completed 2020 strategic initiatives, the continuation of

2020 initiatives, and the new 2021 strategic initiatives are highlighted below.

2020 Completed Initiatives

• Health Care Fund Asset-Liability Study and implementation

• Internal Risk Parity portfolio implementation as part of the Opportunistic Fund allocation

• Implementation of an internal U.S. Equity large cap ESG mandate

2021 Initiatives

• Defined Contribution Plan program review (Continued from 2020)

• Explore diversifying and risk mitigation strategies

• Study of the current Commodity and Non-U.S. Equity sub-asset class benchmarks

• Investment systems review and optimization

• Staff Investment Committee structure review

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY


Resources

The Investments Division Staff is comprised of 64 budgeted positions with six positions currently vacant.

The Investments Division submitted an estimated compensation and operating budget of $17.6 million for 2021. The budget includes the Finance Division’s estimate of the 2021 incentive compensation payout, based on the prior year’s budget. The budget incorporates the Investments Division’s effort to maintain internal investment management, where appropriate, due to its material cost savings.

Staff estimates the total cost to manage the OPERS asset base at 39.8 basis points or $442.0 million. This is a reduction of over $100 million in fees, primarily due to the elimination of the Hedge Fund sub-asset class, reduction in the assets externally managed within the public markets, and lower management fees negotiated by Staff. The cost assumes a long-termgrowth trend in the fund’s asset base, whereas an unanticipated bear market would reduce the cost.

FUND STRATEGIES



Expected Asset Growth – Defined Benefit Fund

The table below summarizes Staff’s estimate (base case) of market values and ranges for the Defined Benefit Fund at December 31, 2021. Pessimistic and optimistic cases are also provided for comparison purposes.

The anticipated market value of $97.54 billion for December 31, 2020 is unaudited.

Asset Allocation – Defined Benefit Fund

The 2021 target asset allocation and ranges for the Defined Benefit Fund reflect an estimate by Staff of the expected progress to be made toward the strategic asset allocation targets. Also included are asset allocations for a comparable peer group as of June 2020.

*The asset allocations are derived from the organizations in the Peer Group Comparison sectionon page 23.


2021 Expected Asset Growth

Pessimistic Base Optimistic

Case Case Case

12/31/20 Market Value ($ billions) $97.54 $97.54 $97.54

Expected Total Return -7.35% 6.40% 20.15%

Expected Investment Gain ($ billions) -$7.17 $6.24 $19.65

Expected Cash Flow ($ billions) -$3.60 -$3.60 -$3.60


Estimated Market Values, Returns and Cash Flows

12/31/2020 12/31/2021 Peer

Target Target Range Group

Public Equity 42.9% 46.9% 27% to 67% 42.09%

U.S. Equity 21.4% 23.9% 19% to 29% 23.82%

Non-U.S. Equity 21.5% 23.0% 18% to 28% 18.27%

Fixed Income 26.0% 25.0% 16% to 30% 24.47%

Core Fixed 11.0% 11.0% 7% to 13% 16.89%

Floating Rate Debt 0.0% 0.0% 0% to 2% 0.00%

Securitized Debt 1.0% 1.0% 0% to 2% 0.89%

TIPS 2.0% 3.0% 0% to 5% 2.55%

High Yield 2.0% 2.0% 1% to 3% 2.64%

Emerging Markets Debt 6.0% 5.0% 3% to 9% 1.50%

U.S. Treasury 4.0% 3.0% 0% to 5% 0.00%

Alternatives 26.1% 23.1% 16% to 30% 26.11%

Private Equity 12.0% 12.0% 5% to 15% 10.61%

Real Estate 10.0% 10.0% 5% to 15% 8.92%

Hedge Funds 3.0% 0.0% 0% to 2% 4.70%

Opportunistic 0.1% 0.1% 0% to 4% 1.02%

Commodities 1.0% 1.0% 0% to 2% 0.86%

Risk Parity 5.0% 5.0% 2% to 8% 0.00%

Other 7.33%

Defined Benefit Fund 100.0% 100.0% 100.00%

Asset Class

FUND STRATEGIES


The above table shows an anticipated active management contribution of 36 basis points to the Defined Benefit Fund’s return for 2021. The estimated tracking error of 90 basis points indicates a 68% probability that the active return will be in a range of -54 basis points to +126 basis points. This interval is calculated by subtracting the tracking error from, and adding the tracking error to, the expected active return.

Return and Risk – Defined Benefit Fund

The performance objectives for the Defined Benefit Fund are to: (1) exceed the return of the Policy benchmark within an appropriately constrained risk framework, net of investment expenses: and (2) exceed the actuarial interest rate over a reasonably longer time horizon. The Policybenchmark combines designated market indices for asset classes, weighted by asset allocationtargets.

The return estimates in the following table were derived from the asset class return expectations developed by the OPERS Retirement Board’s retained Investment Advisor, NEPC. The single-point estimate return of 6.40% is comprised of an expected return of 6.04% from the policy mix and an additional contribution of 0.36% from active management, net of fees.

In the following table, Staff divides return and risk into two components.

Policy: The return and risk derived from the policy asset allocation and the intermediate term return and risk forecast of the underlying asset classes.

Active: The return and risk associated with deviations from benchmark allocations at either the asset class level or portfolio level. It reflects the potential impact to relative performance from deviating from the asset class policy allocation targets, from asset class benchmark mismatches and from individual portfolio active risk.

Active Return Active Return Target Tracking

Average Performance Performance Tracking Error Target

Allocation Objectives Contribution Error Range Information

(%) (bps) (bps) (bps) (bps) Ratio

U.S. Equity 23.9% 12 3 30 0-100 0.40

Non-U.S. Equity 23.0% 60 14 150 0-300 0.40

Fixed Income 25.0% 17 4 50 0-200 0.34

Alternatives 23.1% 66 15 500 250-750 0.13

Risk Parity 5.0% 0 0 100 0-200 NA

Defined Benefit Fund 100.0% NA 36 90 0-300 0.40

Schedule of Expected Performance and Volatility

FUND STRATEGIES


The Policy Return and Active Return are calculated as weighted average of expected returns and expected alphas of each sub-asset class.

Asset Classes Pessimistic Base Optimistic

Public Equity -11.67% 6.85% 25.37%

U.S. Equity -11.05% 6.10% 23.25%

Non-U.S. Equity -14.52% 7.20% 28.92%

Fixed Income -3.94% 2.25% 8.44%

Core Fixed -4.82% 1.24% 7.30%

Emerging Markets Debt -7.64% 4.76% 17.16%

Securitized Debt -8.90% 3.60% 16.10%

High Yield -8.90% 3.60% 16.10%

TIPS -5.70% 0.80% 7.30%

U.S. Treasury -4.90% 0.60% 6.10%

Alternatives -9.37% 7.58% 24.53%

Private Equity -14.61% 9.97% 34.55%

Real Estate -10.16% 4.74% 19.64%

Opportunistic -10.70% 5.80% 22.30%

Commodities -18.40% 0.60% 19.60%

Risk Parity -6.56% 5.44% 17.44%

Policy Return -7.78% 6.04% 19.86%

Sources of Return Pessimistic Base Optimistic

Policy -7.78% 6.04% 19.86%

Active -0.54% 0.36% 1.26%

Total Return -7.35% 6.40% 20.15%

Sources of Variability Information Sharpe

Risk Risk Ratio Ratio*

Policy 13.82% 0.39

Active 0.90% 0.40

Total Risk 13.75% 0.42

*The Sharpe Ratio reflects 0.6% (10 year Cash Return) as the risk free rate.

2021 Total Return Assumptions

2021 Total Risk and Active Risk Assumptions

2021 Policy Return Assumptions

FUND STRATEGIES


Health Care Fund

Expected Asset Growth – Health Care Fund

The table below summarizes Staff’s estimate (base case) of market values and ranges for the Health Care Fund at December 31, 2021. Pessimistic and optimistic cases are also provided for comparison purposes.

The anticipated market value of $13.3 billion for December 31, 2020 is unaudited.

Asset Allocation – Health Care Fund

The 2021 target asset allocation and ranges for the Health Care Fund reflect an estimate by Staff of the expected progress to be made toward the strategic asset allocation targets, which are shown below. There is no peer universe of public pension plans with separate health care funds.

Health Care Fund

2021 Expected Asset Growth

Pessimistic Base Optimistic

Case Case Case


Expected Total Return -7.12% 5.38% 17.88%

Expected Investment Gain ($ billions) -$0.95 $0.72 $2.38

Expected Cash Flow ($ billions) -$1.08 -$1.08 -$1.08


Estimated Market Values, Returns and Cash Flows

12/31/2020 12/31/2021

Target Target Range

Public Equity 46.9% 52.9% 33% to 73%

U.S. Equity 23.4% 27.9% 23% to 33%

Non-U.S. Equity 23.5% 25.0% 20% to 30%

Fixed Income 37.0% 34.0% 24% to 44%

Core Fixed 18.0% 17.0% 12% to 22%

Floating Rate Debt 0.0% 0.0% 0% to 1%

Securitized Debt 1.0% 2.0% 0% to 4%

TIPS 6.0% 7.0% 5% to 9%

High Yield 2.0% 4.0% 3% to 5%

Emerging Markets Debt 6.0% 2.0% 0% to 4%

U.S. Treasury 4.0% 2.0% 0% to 4%

Alternatives 11.1% 11.1% 8% to 14%

REITs 6.0% 7.0% 5% to 9%

Hedge Funds 3.0% 0.0% 0% to 2%

Opportunistic 0.1% 0.1% 0% to 5%

Commodities 2.0% 4.0% 2% to 6%

Risk Parity 5.0% 2.0% 1% to 4%

Health Care Fund 100.0% 100.0%

Asset Class

FUND STRATEGIES


The above table shows an anticipated active management contribution of 26 basis points to the Health Care Fund’s return for 2021. The estimated tracking error of 66 basis points indicates a 68% probability that the active return will be in a range of -40 basis points to +92 basis points. This interval is calculated by subtracting the tracking error from, and adding the tracking error to, the expected active return.

Return and Risk – Health Care Fund

The performance objective for the Health Care Fund is to exceed the return of the Policy benchmark within an appropriately constrained risk framework, net of investment expenses. The Policy benchmark combines designated market indices for asset classes, weighted by asset allocation targets.

The return estimates in the following table below were derived from the asset class return expectations developed by the OPERS Retirement Board’s retained Investment Advisor, NEPC. The single-point estimate return of 5.38% is comprised of an expected return of 5.12% from the policy mix and an additional contribution of 0.26% from active management, net of fees.

In the following table, Staff divides return and risk into two components.

Policy: The return and risk derived from the policy asset allocation and the intermediate term return and risk forecast of the underlying asset classes.

Active: The return and risk associated with deviations from benchmark allocations at either the asset class level or portfolio level. It reflects the potential impact to relative performance from deviating from the asset class policy allocation targets, from asset class benchmark mismatches and from individual portfolio active risk.

Active Return Active Return Target Tracking

Average Performance Performance Tracking Error Target

Allocation Objectives Contribution Error Range Information

(%) (bps) (bps) (bps) (bps) Ratio

U.S. Equity 27.9% 12 3 30 0-100 0.40

Non-U.S. Equity 25.0% 60 15 150 0-300 0.40

Fixed Income 34.0% 18 6 50 0-200 0.36

Alternatives 11.1% 10 1 300 200-400 0.03

Risk Parity 2.0% 0 0 100 0-200 NA

Health Care Fund 100.0% NA 26 66 0-300 0.40

Schedule of Expected Performance and Volatility

FUND STRATEGIES


The Policy Return and Active Return are calculated as the weighted average of expected returns or expected alphas of each sub-asset class.

Asset Classes Pessimistic Base Optimistic

Public Equity -11.59% 6.82% 25.23%

U.S. Equity -11.05% 6.10% 23.25%

Non-U.S. Equity -14.52% 7.20% 28.92%

Fixed Income -3.92% 1.87% 7.66%

Core Fixed -4.82% 1.24% 7.30%

Emerging Markets Debt -7.64% 4.76% 17.16%

Securitized Debt -8.90% 3.60% 16.10%

High Yield -8.90% 3.60% 16.10%

TIPS -5.70% 0.80% 7.30%

U.S. Treasury -4.90% 0.60% 6.10%

Alternatives -9.85% 4.86% 19.57%

REITs -14.30% 5.70% 25.70%

Opportunistic -10.70% 5.80% 22.30%

Commodities -18.40% 0.60% 19.60%

Risk Parity -6.56% 5.44% 17.44%

Policy Return -6.90% 5.12% 17.14%

Sources of Return Pessimistic Base Optimistic

Policy -6.90% 5.12% 17.14%

Active -0.40% 0.26% 0.92%

Total Return -7.12% 5.38% 17.88%

Sources of Variability Information Sharpe

Risk Risk Ratio Ratio*

Policy 12.02% 0.38

Active 0.66% 0.40

Total Risk 12.50% 0.38

*The Sharpe Ratio reflects 0.6% (10 year Cash Return) as the risk free rate.

2021 Policy Return Assumptions

2021 Total Return Assumptions

2021 Total Risk and Risk Attribution Assumptions

ASSET CLASS STRATEGIES



Tactical Outlook

The following tactical outlook provides a background and context for the asset class strategies for the Defined Benefit and Health Care Funds. The following are overviews of the two components of the tactical outlook: the capital markets observations and the asset class outlook. The Investment Advisors (NEPC and AHIC), retained by the OPERS Retirement Board, provided these outlooks for 2021. Capital Markets Observations

• Key Market Themes o Virus and economic paths are aligned

▪ The pandemic has limited global economic activity. ▪ Virus trajectory is the dominant force driving market and economic

outcomes.

• Plausible paths range from a rapid economic recovery, K-shaped recovery, or depression.

▪ Business disruption from the pandemic is widespread.

• Social-distancing guidelines, travel restrictions, and a higher cost of living have disproportionately impacted major metro areas and small businesses continue to struggle as stimulus money has been exhausted.

o Permanent interventions ▪ Globally, significant monetary and fiscal stimulus has been aimed at

lessening the economic impact of COVID-19. ▪ In the US, the prospect of a fiscal stimulus package has supported

business and consumer sentiment. o Globalization Backlash: The influence of the theme will likely increase in coming

quarters as countries digest lasting impacts from the pandemic ▪ The world will likely be faced with an amplified wealth divide given

economic and labor market disruptions. ▪ In addition, backlash may continue as countries reassess global supply

chains. o China Transitions

▪ Tensions between the US and China remain elevated as the US government attempted to ban apps, such as TikTok and WeChat, from US platforms given data concerns.

Market Outlook

• US and Non-US Equities o For certain investors, we recommend a modest strategic overweight to US

markets as we believe the elevated valuations trends are likely to continue. o We encourage a strategic bias to emerging market equities relative to the MSCI

ACWI weight. ▪ The strategic overweight is designed to capture higher return

expectations and growth potential in emerging Asia.



o Active implementation of small cap equities is generally preferred given relatively attractive alpha potential.

• Fixed Income o NEPC recommends the use of safe-haven fixed income for downside protection

and to be a source for liquidity. o We encourage investors to hold a stand-alone Treasury mandate to mitigate

portfolio drawdowns. o We feel that a strategic allocation to return-seeking credit can offer enhanced

risk-adjusted returns and diversification. ▪ NEPC recommends a strategic weight to public credit with allocations to

high yield, and blended emerging market debt.

• Real Assets o The strategic outlook for real assets reflects a high level of uncertainty due to

subdued inflation expectations. ▪ Real assets offer a meaningful portfolio diversification benefit but are

exposed to a wide range of potential inflation scenarios. o Energy-related asset classes continue to be challenged, with growth inputs

discounted to reflect the uncertainty. o Real assets exhibit different betas to inflation and each asset class is exposed to

various economic factors. o Inflation-sensitivity and portfolio objectives should influence an investor’s

strategic allocation to real assets.

• Private Equity o 2021’s Private Equity (PE) activity is expected to remain relatively constant with

the lower levels of the first half of 2020 after having declined consistently every quarter since 4Q 2018 and slowing significantly in the second quarter of 2020 as a result of the COVID pandemic. New investment activity is expected to be difficult due to uncertainty in the market.

▪ Purchase price multiples for new investments remain high at the five-year average of 10.6x EBITDA, lower only than the 2019 peak of 11.6x. Decreases in purchase prices are expected to be slow as sellers are reluctant to reduce expectations and General Partner (GP)’s feel pressure to deploy record levels of dry powder (capital committed but not yet drawn down). Creating value at these multiples is difficult and GPs are increasingly focusing on higher quality companies thus limiting the number of transactions completed.

▪ Debt availability has tightened with debt multiple falling to the lowest level since 2012. This is a result of uncertainty surrounding the economy and company EBITDA. This also creates pressure to complete only high-quality deals since a larger portion of the purchase price must be financed with equity.

▪ Exit volume decreased by almost 50% in 2Q 2020 over 1Q 2020 and will continue remain at lower levels as the backlog of deals completed during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) are largely exited, and deals completed post GFC require high exit multiples to maintain value created in light of the higher entrance multiples.



▪ Total fundraising in 2020 is expected to be less than 80% of that in 2019 and will likely decrease further in 2021 given the lower activity level and record dry powder level of $1.9 trillion.

▪ While allocations to PE have generally been increasing amongst institutional investors, the combination of the impact from the COVID pandemic on portfolios and the slowdown in exit activity has caused many investors to surpass their target allocation to PE.

▪ Managers with strong track records will continue to raise larger funds, often with only one close. Appetite for the best-performing funds is high, potentially pushing those managers to raise too much capital. Meanwhile, lesser performing funds are encountering trouble reaching their targets.

o Capital markets have slowed with reduced debt availability despite high valuations.

▪ Debt availability has decreased, currently running at a Last Twelve Month (LTM) level of $288 billion -- less than half the peak level reached in 4Q 2017. Terms and conditions have moved to the favor of lenders and total leverage has fallen to 5.1x EBITDA from 2019 levels of 5.8x.

▪ 30.5% of all new debt issuance is being used to refinance old deals rather than support new transactions which is double the level at the end of 2019.

▪ While the number of distressed companies coming to market has not reached the level anticipated, the LTM High Yield bond default rates are at 5.1%, the highest level in over 10 years.

▪ These negative trends are not likely to reverse until the impact on the economy begins to be felt from the availability of COVID vaccinations.

o U.S. GDP growth slowed and is expected to fall by 3.5% for the full year. Projected growth of 4.1% in 2021 is largely dependent on the passage of another stimulus package but could also be slowed by expected potential changes from the new administration. Europe overall is expected to complete the year with a GDP decline of 8.75% and is only expected to rebound by 6.1% in 2021. Asia is mixed depending on the region but overall is expected to show lower losses of 0.5% for the year and slowly return to stronger growth of ~5.5% in late 2021.

o Interest in Venture capital (VC), while still high, is moderating. We expect 2021 to experience continued but judicious interest.

▪ Investment activity remains at high levels and is likely to stay there. Frothy and highly anticipated IPOs continue to increase late stage round investment activity from non-traditional investors like hedge funds and mutual funds.

▪ Recent vintage funds have seen strong returns but pre-money valuations are high for all deal stages except seed.

▪ Despite the hyped IPO activity, overall exit activity is slow with the lowest number of exits, outside of IPOs, in over ten years. A rebound in this area is contingent upon improved economic conditions and likely will not come to fruition until the 2nd half of 2021.



o 2021 is a year to be judicious and selectively invest only in promising managers / strategies. Lower investment levels from some investors may create opportunities that would otherwise not be available. Even in downturns, top performing managers generate solid returns. There are pockets of attractive investment strategies within all sectors of private equity.

▪ We favor investment in all sectors over multiple vintage years in order to avoid overexposure to any one strategy or economic cycle as one cannot time the market and good funds are raised in all vintage years. It may be prudent to temper allocations to mega-cap markets and late stage venture. There will be a short window for secondary investing at attractive discounts; as such co-invests in this area could be lucrative.

▪ As always, manager selection will be the key to generating the best returns, with a current focus on choosing managers with strong operational capabilities and high levels of valuation discipline on new deals.

• Real Estate o Pre-COVID real estate markets were fundamentally strong, with supply and

demand in equilibrium and solid growth in occupancies and valuations. Late cycle market conditions reflected full pricing across property sectors and risk profiles, supporting growth-oriented strategies to achieve enhanced returns.

o The COVID Pandemic caused a real estate market correction that continues today. The impact of the COVID correction has varied greatly by sector and geography. We expect this correction and resulting volatility in performance to continue into 2021. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the timing and shape of a real estate recovery.

o Most investors paused their programs during a substantial portion of 2020, contributing to limited transactions and minimal price discovery; uncertainty exists over current valuations.

o Overall Core real estate returns turned negative for the first time since the Global Financial Crisis due to a variety of factors, such as occupancy disruptions, suspension of rent payments, and reduced expectations for growth.

o The impact of the COVID correction can be grouped into three categories: severe disruption, temporary disruption, and acceleration of some positive trends.

▪ Severe disruption is limited primarily to retail and hospitality property types. The retail trend away from traditional store formats to shop-at-home/e-commerce has been greatly accelerated, resulting in store closures, foreclosures and bankruptcies. Hotels and resorts are experiencing dramatic declines in occupancy and revenue; however, the prospects for this sector are perceived to be better because recovery is expected post-COVID (unlike traditional retail).

▪ Temporary disruption visited many property types, including the apartment sector (rent suspensions), office (debate over future incidence of remote working), seniors housing (suspended move-ins), and student housing (high incidence of remote learning). Most of these sectors are expected to rebound relatively quickly post-Pandemic, with office being the exception.

▪ Some sectors and geographies are actually seeing improved demand for space associated with the COVID Pandemic. Generally, technology-oriented real estate (data centers), life science facilities (R&D and lab space), and logistics (e-commerce) are experiencing accelerated demand



for space, strong leasing activity, high occupancies, and growth in property values.

▪ Another trend accelerated by COVID is seen in population migration trends. Increased growth in populations is benefitting markets in the South and Southwestern U.S., where the climate for living and for business are perceived to be favorable.

▪ Finally, a migratory trend away from large urban centers is benefitting the suburbs. A developing trend in this direction was observed pre-COVID, but it accelerated with remote working and the desire for social distancing. Debate exists about the strength of the de-urbanization trend, post-COVID.



Performance Expectations – Excess Return Targets

Public Equity

The following table shows the benchmarks and performance objectives for the Public Equity asset class. The benchmark for the U.S. Equity asset class is the Russell 3000 Index with an alpha target of 12 basis points, net of fees. The tracking error target is 30 basis points with a range of 0 to 100 basis points. The performance objective and target tracking error for Non-U.S. Equity are 60 basis points and 150 basis points, respectively.

The custom benchmark for Non-U.S. Equity is composed of 55% MSCI World Index ex U.S. Standard Index; 10% MSCI World Index ex U.S. Small Cap Index; 31% MSCI Emerging Markets Standard Index; and 4% MSCI Emerging Markets Small Cap Index. This structure reflects a strategic overweight to Emerging Markets compared to the Emerging Markets allocation of the MSCI All Country World Index ex U.S. Investable Markets Index (“MSCI ACWI ex U.S. IMI”).

Fixed Income The following table shows the benchmarks and performance objectives for the Fixed Income asset class.

**50% JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global & 50% JP Morgan Government Bond Index-

Emerging Markets Global Diversified

***50% Bloomberg Barclays Non-Agency Investment Grade CMBS: BBB Total Return Index Unhedged

USD & 50% Bloomberg Barclays Non-Agency CMBS Agg Eligible Total Return Index Value Unhedged

USD.

Alpha Target Tracking

Target Tracking Target Error

(net of fees) Error Information Range

Benchmark (bps) (bps) Ratio (bps)

U.S. Equity Russell 3000 12 30 0.40 0 - 100

Non-U.S. Equity Custom Benchmark 60 150 0.40 0 - 300

Public Equity Asset ClassAlpha Target and Target Tracking Error





Core Fixed Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate 30 75 0.40 0 - 150

Emerging Markets Debt EMD Custom Benchmark** 46 230 0.20 0 - 800

Securitized Debt Securitized Debt Custom Benchmark*** 80 200 0.40 0 - 400

High Yield Bloomberg Barclays U.S. High Yield 20 100 0.20 0 - 700

TIPS Bloomberg Barclays TIPS 0 15 NA 0 - 50

U.S. Treasury Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Treasury 0 30 NA 0 - 50

Alpha Target and Target Tracking Error

Fixed Income Asset Class



Securities Lending

In the securities lending program, Staff utilizes lending agents to maximize lending revenue. Staff strives to hire agents who provide competitive fee splits, while providing adequate risk controls and expertise in the asset class being loaned. There is a bias toward lending assets in an auction environment, so borrowers are providing maximum revenue in a competitive environment on a regular basis. Staff will continue lending the U.S. Treasury, Agency and a portion of the Corporate Bond assets in-house. The collateral from the securities lending program is managed internally. The combination of lending revenue and investment income comprise the total securities lending performance.

Cash Management

The cash portfolios are managed with a low-to-moderate risk profile that results in principal preservation while exceeding the performance of the respective benchmarks. The benchmark for the OPERS Short Term Investment Funds (“STIF”) is the Tier 1 30-Day CP Index. The benchmark for the Securities Lending STIF is the Overnight Bank Funding Rate.

Alternatives

The Alternatives asset class is composed of Private Equity, Real Estate, Opportunistic, REITs, and Commodities investment strategies. The Defined Benefit and Health Care Funds invest differently in the Alternatives asset class to meet their unique investment objectives.

The following table summarizes the benchmark, performance objectives and tracking error for the various alternative investment strategies utilized within the Fund.

* Market value weight of the underlying benchmarks

Opportunistic

The Opportunistic sub-asset class is intended to permit investments in assets or strategies not presently contemplated in the respective Defined Benefit or Health Care Funds. In this regard, assets or strategies used in the Opportunistic sub-asset class must have the potential to be mainstreamed into OPERS investment program over time or be opportunistic based on either valuation or circumstance. Strategies are developed based on their individual merit and circumstances and are assessed as to their scalability and feasibility for a potentially larger allocation. The maximum size for any single benchmarked strategy is 0.5% of the total fund.

Staff launched a $100 million internal Risk Parity portfolio, with an initial volatility target of 8% and maximum leverage of 1.5x. This portfolio is now part of the Opportunistic Fund allocation.





Private Equity State Street Private Equity Index 100 700 0.14 NA

Real Estate Net NFI-ODCE + 0.85% 30 700 0.04 NA

Opportunistic Custom Benchmark* 0 40 0.40 NA

REITs DJ U.S. Select RESI 0 10 NA 0 - 250

Commodities S&P GSCITR Index 36 90 0.40 0 - 300

Alternatives Asset ClassAlpha Target and Target Tracking Error



Hedge Fund The Hedge Fund allocation was terminated in 2020 and is currently in liquidation mode. The custom benchmark for 2021 is defined by the table below and is based on the estimated remaining assets.

Risk Parity Risk Parity is an alternative approach to investment portfolio management, which focuses on the allocation of risk rather than allocation of capital. The Risk Parity approach is underpinned by the expectation that when asset allocations are adjusted to the same risk level, a portfolio can achieve a higher Sharpe ratio and be more resilient to market downturns. The performance benchmark for the OPERS Risk Parity asset class is the HFR Institutional Risk Parity 15 Volatility Index and is managed as a passive allocation.

Strategy Target Range

Event Driven 65% 0-100%

Relative Value 35% 0-100%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio

POLICIES, COMMITTEES, AND RESOURCES



OPERS Retirement Board Policies Governing Investment Activities

The following exhibit illustrates the structure and relationship of the Policies within the OPERS System and its two investment Funds.

Broker - Dealer Policy Corporate Governance & Proxy Voting Guidelines

Derivatives Policy External Investment Managers’ Insurance Policy

Iran and Sudan Divestment Policy Material Nonpublic Information Policy

Defined Contribution Fund Policy

Ohio-Qualified & Minority-Owned Manager Policy Personal Trading Policy

Responsible Contractor Policy Securities Lending Policy

Soft Dollar Policy OFAC Policy

Leverage Policy Liquidity Policy

INVESTMENTS-WIDE POLICIES

Cash Policy Commodities Policy Hedge Funds Policy Opportunistic Policy

Public Equity Policy Fixed Income Policy Private Equity Policy

Real Estate Policy Risk Parity Policy

ASSET/SUB-ASSET CLASS POLICIES

OPERS FUNDS

FUND POLICIES

HEALTH CARE FUND

Investment Objectives and Asset

Allocation Policy

DEFINED BENEFIT FUND

Investment Objectives and Asset

Allocation Policy



Staff Committee Structure

The Chief Investment Officer (“CIO”) utilizes a variety of committees, working groups and meeting structures to govern the Investment Division’s activities. This internal governance arrangement enhances collective inputs, retains institutional knowledge, provides documentation of the due diligence process and other processes, promotes transparency and accountability, and formalizes decision-making processes. These committees are designed to combine structure and flexibility to efficiently bring the appropriate decision makers together on a timely basis and maintain a controlled environment to minimize operational risk. The following provides an outline of the Investment related committees.

Committee/Meeting Purpose and Description

Staff Investment Committees * Approvals and Decisions

Broker Review Monitor/Approve and Evaluate Brokers, Complete ORSC Reports

Counterparty Risk Set Counterparty Limits and Monitor Counterparty Exposures

DC Funds Staff Investments Committee Review/Monitor Defined Contribution Fund's Allocation and

Rebalancing Activities

Fund Management Implement Asset Allocation and Investment Strategies, Cash

Forecasting, Fund and Portfolio Exposure Metrics, and Set

Quarterly Fund Target Benchmark Allocations During Transition,

Liquidity Management

Operational Risk Management Identify and Monitor Operational Risks

GEC - Global Equity Committee Recommend to hire or terminate External Managers, to open or

close internally managed portfolios in relation to OPERS

Investment Polices

GFIC - Global Fixed Income Committee Recommend to hire or terminate External Managers, to open or


Investment Polices

PMAC - Public Market Alternative Committee Recommend to hire or terminate External Managers, to open or


Investment Polices

Real Estate Committee Review RE Opportunities for CIO Approval

Private Equity Committee Review PE Opportunities for CIO Approval

* Committee has charter and maintains minutes



Staffing

Recruiting and retaining the best and most talented Staff is a critical priority for the Investments Division. The following table shows the anticipated full staffing for 2021.

Staffing Costs

Assuming full staffing levels in 2021, the chart below details the estimated $17.55 million of salaries, benefits, and incentive compensation for the Investments Division. This represents approximately 1.58 basis points of cost, a decrease of 0.25 basis points from the 2020 projection due to lower staffing levels (more vacancies) expected in 2021.

Operating Budget

The Investments Division’s 2021 operating budget (excluding compensation) is $10.62 million. This operating budget reflects a decrease of $0.42 million, or 3.8% percent, from the 2020 budget and, as a percentage of assets, is 0.96 basis points as compared to 1.09 basis points in 2020.

Office Total

of the Fund Risk Internal External Invest.

CIO Mgmt. Mgmt. Funds Funds Division

2021 Investment Plan Projected Staffing 4 5 5 31 16 61

Current Staffing 4 4 5 30 15 58

Vacant Positions - To be filled in 2021 3 1 0 1 1 6

Year End 2021 Target Staffing 7 5 5 31 16 64

Target Staffing for Year End 2021

Position Vacant

Internal Management Senior Portfolio Manager 1

External Management Lead Portfolio Manager EPM 1

Internal Management Senior Analyst 1

Internal Management Investment Analyst - Quantitative Management 1

Internal Management Associate Investment Analyst - Fund Management 1

Internal Management Associate Analyst 1

Total 6

Current Open and Budgeted Positions

Office 2021 2020

of the Internal External Projected Projected

CIO Mgmt. Mgmt. Total Total

Salaries $1.46 $5.47 $2.41 $9.34 $10.08

Benefits $0.73 $2.79 $1.22 $4.73 $5.07

Incentive Compensation $0.44 $2.16 $0.87 $3.47 $3.46

Total Compensation $2.63 $10.42 $4.50 $17.55 $18.62

Average Assets ($ billions) $110.84 $55.43 $55.41 $110.84 $101.67

Compensation (Basis Points) 0.24 1.88 0.81 1.58 1.83

Estimated 2021 Total Compensation Costs

($ millions)



Total Costs The total costs of the investment program in 2021 are projected to be $442.0 million, or 39.8 basis points of assets under management. External Management fees are projected to be $416.5 million in 2021. In 2019 OPERS actual cost of 49.1 basis points was below the CEM benchmark average cost of 52.6 basis points. CEM Benchmarking, Inc. is an independent firm that provides an assessment of pension plans and it evaluates OPERS investment program relative to the peer group of comparable size. CEM Benchmarking excludes the Incentive/Performance fees for Private Equity and Real Estate in their peer group analysis.

Total

Internal External Invest.

Mgmt. Mgmt. Division

2020 Operating Budget $8.59 $2.45 $11.04

2021 Operating Budget $8.48 $2.14 $10.62

Percent Change -1.3% -12.7% -3.8%

Percent of Total 79.8% 20.2% 100.0%

Average Assets ($ billions) $55.43 $55.41 $110.84

Operating Budget (Basis Points) 1.53 0.39 0.96

Operating Budget less Total Compensation

($ millions)

Total

Internal External Invest. % of

Mgmt. Mgmt. Division Total

Total Compensation 13.1 4.5 17.5 4.0%

Operating Budget less Compensation 8.5 2.1 10.6 2.4%

Manager Fees 406.3 406.3 91.9%

Custody 5.0 2.5 7.5 1.7%

Total Costs 26.5 415.5 442.0 100.0%

Percent of Total 0.1 0.9

Average 2020 Asset Size ($ Billions) 55.4 55.4 110.8

Costs in Basis Points 4.8 75.0 NA

Costs in Basis Points to Total Fund NA NA 39.8

Estimated 2021 Total Costs

($ millions)



Peer Group Comparison

The following chart compares the OPERS asset size and Investments Staff to its peer groupas of June 30, 2020.

The following table lists the public pension peer group referenced in the chart.

Source: PFDE (Pension Fund Data Exchange), OPERS

*Staffing data sourced from PFDE is as of 06/30/2020

Asset Size

($ millions)

California Public Employees' Retirement System $389,000 193 $2,016

California State Teachers' Retirement System $246,000 154 $1,597

State Board of Administration of Florida $160,700 60 $2,678

State of Wisconsin Investment Board $122,250 82 $1,491

New York State Teachers' Retirement System $120,500 46 $2,620

Washington State Investment Board $111,580 48 $2,325

North Carolina Retirement System $103,900 18 $5,772

Ohio Public Employees Retirement System $98,000 64 $1,531

New Jersey Division of Investment $76,630 29 $2,642

Ohio State Teachers Retirement System $77,000 91 $846

Average $150,556 79 $2,352

Peers

Investment

Staff

Public Plan Peer Group (as of 6/30/2020)

Asset Size per

Investment Staff

APPENDIX



Paul

Gre

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CIO

Dea

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Man

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Dep

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Priv

ate

Alte

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Qua

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Rese

arch

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Man

agem

ent

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Man

agem

ent

Fixe

d In

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Man

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Man

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Qua

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Rese

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Prab

u Ku

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Man

ager

(Lea

d)

Fund

Man

agem

ent

Dan

Ger

man

Inve

stm

ent R

isk

Off

icer

Risk

Man

agem

ent

Mar

k Eh

resm

an

Sr. P

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Man

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Fixe

d In

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e

Eric

k W

eis

Sr. P

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olio

Man

ager

Inte

rnal

Glo

bal E

quity

Joan

Sta

ck

Hea

d Tr

ader

Equi

ty T

radi

ng

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nt

Sr. P

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Man

ager

Exte

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Man

agem

ent

Jerr

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ay

Sr. P

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Man

ager

Cash

/Sec

uriti

es L

endi

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Hun

ter G

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m

Asso

c. In

vest

men

t Ana

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Alte

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t Ana

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Man

agem

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Eliz

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Sr. O

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Man

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Chris

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Port

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Man

ager

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Sr. P

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Man

ager

Inte

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Glo

bal E

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Mat

t She

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Ryan

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Man

agem

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sa B

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Sr. I

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Had

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Port

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Anth

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Fund

Man

agem

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Jack

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Sr. I

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tmen

t Ana

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Man

agem

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Todd

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ts

Port

folio

Man

ager

Fixe

d In

com

e

Aviji

t Bar

ua

Asst

. Por

tfol

io M

anag

er

Inte

rnal

Glo

bal E

quity

Vaca

nt

Sr. T

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r

Equi

ty T

radi

ng

Linc

oln

Carn

am

Sr. I

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tmen

t Ana

lyst

Exte

rnal

Man

agem

ent

Gre

g Co

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an

Inve

stm

ent A

naly

st

Cash

/Sec

uriti

es L

endi

ng

Brad

Stu

rm

Port

folio

Man

ager

(Lea

d)

Real

Est

ate

Vaca

nt

Asso

c. In

vest

men

t Ana

lyst

Fund

Man

agem

ent

Mic

helle

Lew

is

Sr. I

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tmen

t Ana

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Man

agem

ent

Nic

k Ko

tson

is

Sr. I

nv A

naly

st/

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t

Fixe

d In

com

e

Amit

Sany

al

Asst

. Por

tfol

io M

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er

Inte

rnal

Glo

bal E

quity

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Dav

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Trad

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ty T

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Mic

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Anal

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/Sec

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Man

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Sean

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Man

agem

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Zach

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man

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stm

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Jeff

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io M

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er

Inte

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Glo

bal E

quity

John

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Man

agem

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AJ S

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eld

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t Ana

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Die

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il

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Hig

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Aron

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Inte

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Zach

Mar

tin

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vest

men

t Ana

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Hig

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Tony

End

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ing

Man

ager

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JoAn

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cum

Inve

stm

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Inv

estm

ents

- O

rgan

izat

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l Str

uctu

re

As o

f dat

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2/31

/202

0

Ohio Public Employees Retirement System ANNUAL …

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