OHIO · 2020-03-16 · Ohio’s seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment was 5,580,200 in...

Office Of WOrkfOrce DevelOpment l Bureau Of laBOr market infOrmatiOn 1

O H I OPredicted AnnuAlized Growth rAtes for

ohio And select MetroPolitAn stAtisticAl AreAs (MsAs)

State of Ohio 1.11%

The Ohio Leading Indicators report uses an annualized growth rate to forecast employment growth for Ohio and its eight largest MSAs for the next six months. The model examines seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment. These data are seasonally adjusted by the leading indicators model and should not be compared to other seasonally adjusted data.

Ohio’s forecasted January 2020 annualized employment growth rate is 1.11 percent. The following MSAs are also predicted to grow: the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman MSA at 0.18 percent; the Canton-Massillon MSA at 0.54 percent; the Akron MSA at 0.77 percent; the Cleveland-Elyria MSA at 0.80 percent; the Dayton MSA at 1.01 percent; the Toledo MSA at 1.39 percent; the Cincinnati MSA at 1.70 percent; and the Columbus MSA at 2.31 percent.

LEADING INDICATORSJA n u A ry 2020


OhiO Leading indicatOrs l January 2020

leAdinG indicAtors And coMPonents

united stAtes

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

Ind

ex (

2016

= 1

00)

u.s. coMPosite of leAdinG indicAtors(Seasonally Adjusted)

Source: The Conference Board

4,700,000

4,800,000

4,900,000

5,000,000

5,100,000

5,200,000

5,300,000

5,400,000

5,500,000

5,600,000

5,700,000

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

ohio totAl nonfArM eMPloyMent(Seasonally Adjusted)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

ohio initiAl clAiMs for uneMPloyMent insurAnce(Seasonally Adjusted)

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

Ind

ex (2

012

= 10

0)

u.s. industriAl Production: MAnufActurinG (Seasonally Adjusted)

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

37.0

38.0

39.0

40.0

41.0

42.0

43.0

44.0

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

ohio MAnufActurinG hours(Seasonally Adjusted)

$0.0

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20M

illio

ns

ohio VAluAtion of housinG PerMits(Seasonally Adjusted)

ohio

The U.S. Composite of Leading Indicators increased 0.8 percent from December and increased 0.9 percent from January 2019. The U.S. industrial production in manufacturing decreased 0.1 percent over the month and 0.7 percent over the year.

Ohio’s seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment was 5,580,200 in January 2020, unchanged over the month but down 0.2 percent over the year. Initial unemployment claims decreased 11.4 percent from December and 14.8 percent from January 2019. Ohio’s average weekly manufacturing hours decreased to 41.7 in January. Housing permit valuations increased 104.8 percent from the previous month and increased 141.9 percent from the previous year.



united stAtes Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percent Change

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Month Year

U.S. Composite Index of Leading Indicators

(2016 = 100)(Seasonally Adjusted) 111.1 111.3 111.5 111.6 111.6 111.6 112.0 111.8 111.6 111.4 111.5 111.2 112.1 0.8% 0.9%

U.S. Industrial Production:

Manufacturing (2012 = 100)

(Seasonally Adjusted) 106.9 106.3 106.3 105.4 105.5 106.1 105.7 106.4 105.7 105.1 106.1 106.2 106.1 -0.1% -0.7%

ohio Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percent Change

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Month Year

Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment

(Seasonally Adjusted in Thousands) 5,594.0 5,588.5 5,587.3 5,588.5 5,587.0 5,589.6 5,593.5 5,591.6 5,589.0 5,578.4 5,572.3 5,582.3 5,580.2 0.0% -0.2%

Initial Claims for Unemployment

Insurance (Seasonally Adjusted) 31,162 27,818 29,653 29,385 32,788 28,719 27,460 27,504 30,536 31,188 29,143 29,977 26,550 -11.4% -14.8%

Average Weekly Hours for Manufacturing


Valuation of Housing Permits

(Seasonally Adjusted in Millions) $395.3 $462.9 $430.0 $405.3 $344.1 $384.6 $369.5 $394.5 $489.7 $437.4 $530.1 $466.9 $956.1 104.8% 141.9%

leAdinG indicAtors And coMPonents



310,000

315,000

320,000

325,000

330,000

335,000

340,000

345,000

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20

totAl nonfArM eMPloyMent(Seasonally Adjusted)

The leading indicator for the Akron metropolitan area for January 2020 forecasts employment growth at an annual rate of 0.77 percent for the next six months. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment was 337,200 in January, up 0.1 percent from December.

The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in January was 1,498 claims, 8.6 percent less than last month and 12.1 percent less than last year. The valuation of permits for new housing construction in January was $28.3 million, a 2.7 percent decrease from December and a 32.9 percent increase from January 2019.

Akron MetroPolitAn stAtisticAl AreAPortage and Summit Counties

Akron Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percent Change

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Month Year


(Seasonally Adjusted in Thousands) 341.5 340.8 340.9 341.3 339.6 340.8 341.4 341.4 339.4 338.5 338.6 336.9 337.2 0.1% -1.3%

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance

(Seasonally Adjusted) 1,704 1,521 1,636 1,640 1,693 1,777 1,620 1,559 1,538 1,630 1,640 1,639 1,498 -8.6% -12.1%

Valuation of Housing Permits (Seasonally Adjusted in Millions) $21.3 $24.6 $17.6 $19.7 $21.9 $19.6 $25.3 $22.4 $29.7 $26.0 $23.0 $29.1 $28.3 -2.7% 32.9%

Average Weekly Hours for Manufacturing* (Seasonally Adjusted) 42.3 42.0 41.6 41.6 41.3 41.4 41.7 41.4 41.7 41.2 41.5 41.9 41.7 -0.5% -1.4%

0

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initiAl clAiMs for uneMPloyMent insurAnce (Seasonally Adjusted)

$0.0

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VAluAtion of housinG PerMits(Seasonally Adjusted)

*In 2005, the BLS stopped producing manufacturing hours for Akron, Canton, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown. Starting in February 2005, data for the manufacturing hours for those MSAs are the state values.



155,000

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180,000

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20


The leading indicator for the Canton-Massillon metropolitan area for January 2020 forecasts employment growth at an annual rate of 0.54 percent for the next six months. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment was 172,400 in January, up 0.3 percent from December.

The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in January was 1,924 claims, 18.9 percent more than the number of claims filed last month and 58.4 percent more than last year. The valuation of permits for new housing construction in January was $14.0 million, an 11.1 percent increase from one month ago and a 22.8 percent increase from one year ago.

cAnton-MAssillon MetroPolitAn stAtisticAl AreACarroll and Stark Counties

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cAnton Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percent Change

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Month Year




(Seasonally Adjusted) 1,215 1,227 1,416 1,647 1,597 1,666 1,255 1,336 1,583 2,524 1,967 1,619 1,924 18.9% 58.4%

Valuation of Housing Permits (Seasonally Adjusted in Millions) $11.4 $7.7 $12.3 $8.8 $7.8 $9.0 $9.7 $8.5 $8.0 $7.8 $14.6 $12.6 $14.0 11.1% 22.8%





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1,000,000

1,050,000

1,100,000

1,150,000

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20


The leading indicator for the Cincinnati metropolitan area for January 2020 forecasts employment growth at an annual rate of 1.70 percent for the next six months. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment was 1,117,800 in January, no change from December.

The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in January was 2,693 claims, 11.6 percent less than last month and 21.4 percent more than last year. The valuation of permits for new housing construction in January was $189.9 million, a 19.6 percent increase from December and a 98.0 percent increase from January 2019.

cincinnAti MetroPolitAn stAtisticAl AreABrown, Butler, Clermont, Hamilton, and Warren CountiesThis MSA also includes counties in Indiana and Kentucky (see page 12)

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cincinnAti Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percent Change

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Month Year


(Seasonally Adjusted in Thousands) 1,115.0 1,114.4 1,114.4 1,113.7 1,114.0 1,115.9 1,115.5 1,115.4 1,117.5 1,114.3 1,114.0 1,117.3 1,117.8 0.0% 0.3%





(Seasonally Adjusted) 44.8 45.3 44.5 44.6 44.4 43.9 42.9 43.8 44.0 43.7 43.6 44.6 45.3 1.6% 1.1%



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1,000,000

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1,040,000

1,060,000

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The leading indicator for the Cleveland-Elyria metropolitan area for January 2020 forecasts employment growth at an annual rate of 0.80 percent for the next six months. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment was 1,081,400 in January, a 0.23 percent increase from December.

The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in January was 4,898 claims, 8.5 percent less than the number of claims filed last month and 6.6 percent less than last year. The valuation of permits for new housing construction in January was $64.2 million, a 0.3 percent decrease from December and a 6.5 percent increase from January 2019.

cleVelAnd-elyriA MetroPolitAn stAtisticAl AreACuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, and Medina Counties

0

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15,000

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cleVelAnd Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percent Change

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Month Year










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'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20


The leading indicator for the Columbus metropolitan area for January 2020 forecasts employment growth at an annual rate of 2.31 percent for the next six months. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment was 1,118,000 in January, up 0.1 percent from December.

The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in January was 3,042 claims, 6.4 percent less than the number of claims filed last month and 7.9 percent less than last year. The valuation of permits for new housing construction in January was $475.8 million, 228.6 percent more than December and 387.0 percent more than January 2019.

coluMbus MetroPolitAn stAtisticAl AreADelaware, Fairfield, Franklin, Hocking, Licking, Madison, Morrow, Perry, Pickaway, and Union Counties

0

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coluMbus Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percent Change

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Month Year










350,000

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The leading indicator for the Dayton metropolitan area for January 2020 forecasts employment growth at an annual rate of 1.01 percent for the next six months. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment was 393,200 in January, up 0.2 percent from December.

The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in January was 1,378 claims, 6.0 percent less than the number of claims filed last month and 8.6 percent less than last year. The valuation of permits for new housing construction in January was $29.0 million, a 12.7 percent decrease from December but an 18.4 percent increase from January 2019.

dAyton MetroPolitAn stAtisticAl AreAGreene, Miami, and Montgomery Counties

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dAyton Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percent Change

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Month Year


(Seasonally Adjusted in Thousands) 391.5 390.5 391.0 391.2 392.2 391.8 392.1 392.3 392.2 393.1 392.3 392.5 393.2 0.2% 0.4%








270,000

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The leading indicator for the Toledo metropolitan area for January 2020 forecasts employment growth at an annual rate of 1.39 percent for the next six months. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment was 308,200 in January, a 0.3 percent decrease from December.

The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in January was 1,788 claims, 2.6 percent less than the number of claims filed last month and 60.0 percent less than last year. The valuation of permits for new housing construction in January was $27.1 million, a 127.7 percent increase from December and a 46.5 percent increase from January 2019.

toledo MetroPolitAn stAtisticAl AreAFulton, Lucas, and Wood Counties

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toledo Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percent Change

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Month Year


(Seasonally Adjusted in Thousands) 310.2 310.6 310.0 312.1 311.5 312.8 312.4 311.5 311.0 310.4 309.6 309.2 308.2 -0.3% -0.6%








210,000

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216,000

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222,000

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228,000

'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20


The leading indicator for the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman metropolitan area for January 2020 forecasts employment growth at an annual rate of 0.18 percent for the next six months. Seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment was 214,000 in January, a 0.05 percent increase from December.

The number of initial claims for unemployment insurance in January was 1,206 claims, 11.6 percent less than the number of claims filed last month and 9.1 percent less than last year. The valuation of permits for new housing construction in January was $5.9 million, a 118.5 percent increase from December and an 84.4 percent increase from January 2019.

younGstown-wArren-boArdMAn MetroPolitAn stAtisticAl AreAMahoning and Trumbull Counties in Ohio and Mercer County in Pennsylvania

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younGstown Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Percent Change

2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 Month Year










A. Akron: Portage and Summit counties

B. Canton-Massillon: Carroll and Stark counties

C. Cincinnati: Brown, Butler, Clermont, Hamilton, and Warren counties in Ohio; Dearborn, Ohio, and Union counties in Indiana; Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Gallatin, Grant, Kenton, and Pendleton counties in Kentucky

D. Cleveland-Elyria: Cuyahoga, Geauga, Lake, Lorain, and Medina counties

E. Columbus: Delaware, Fairfield, Franklin, Hocking, Licking, Madison, Morrow, Perry, Pickaway, and Union counties

F. Dayton: Greene, Miami, and Montgomery counties

G. Huntington-Ashland: Lawrence County in Ohio; Boyd and Greenup counties in Kentucky; Cabell, Lincoln, Putnam, and Wayne counties in West Virginia

H. Lima: Allen County

I. Mansfield: Richland County

J. Springfield: Clark County

K. Toledo: Fulton, Lucas, and Wood counties

L. Weirton-Steubenville: Jefferson County in Ohio; Brooke and Hancock counties in West Virginia

M. Wheeling: Belmont County in Ohio; Marshall and Ohio counties in West Virginia

N. Youngstown-Warren-Boardman: Mahoning and Trumbull counties in Ohio; Mercer County in Pennsylvania

ohio MetroPolitAn stAtisticAl AreAs (MsAs)Developed by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Metropolitan Statistical Areas are integrated geographic regions comprised of at least one city or urban area (with a population of at least 50,000) and adjacent communities. Metropolitan Statistical Areas make it possible for federal statistical agencies to utilize the same boundaries when publishing statistical data. These are definitions based on analysis of 2010 Census data.



The leading economic indicators for Ohio and the eight largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) are designed to anticipate changes in area economies. The Gross National Product is the accepted measure of economic activity at the national level, but there are no monthly measures of the dollar value of goods and services at the state and metropolitan levels. Instead, the Ohio leading indicators forecast the growth rates of total nonfarm employment for each area.

The leading indicators are generated with vector auto regression models using five inputs. The inputs are statistically significant predictors of Ohio total nonfarm growth rates at the 90 percent confidence level.

The five inputs are: • U.S. Leading Indicator (Source: The Conference Board, https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1)• U.S. Industrial Production in the Manufacturing Sector (Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN)• Unemployment Insurance Claims (Source: Ohio Department of Job and Family Services,

https://ohiolmi.com/home/UIclaims)• Housing Valuations (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/)• Manufacturing Hours (Source: Current Employment Statistics program, https://ohiolmi.com/portals/206/CES/LMR.pdf)

The models forecast growth rates for six time-horizons (one to six months); the published forecast is an annualized average of those forecasts. The models use rolling 120-month windows of data. Each month, a new month of data is added (the most current available) and the oldest month is dropped. This approach allows for possible structural changes in the economy over time. All data series are converted monthly growth rates using the first difference of the natural logarithms multiplied by 100. Seasonal adjustments are made within the models using the U.S. Census’ X-13ARIMA-SEATS program; seasonally adjusted data from the leading indicator models will not match data from original sources. The forecasting models for the Ohio leading indicators are ‘real time’ processes that do not build on previous forecasts. For this reason, the Ohio leading indicators should not be used as a time series. The models use data as they are available each month, including revisions to older data. For example, monthly data releases may be preliminary and later revised, other series are revised during annual ‘benchmarking,’ and occasionally a series may be reindexed to new time point. Some of these revisions could be substantial.

technicAl notes



Ohio Department of Job and Family ServicesOffice of Workforce DevelopmentP.O. Box 1618Columbus, OH 43216-1618

Mike DeWine, GovernorState of Ohio

http://Ohio.gov

Kimberly Hall, DirectorOhio Department of Job and Family Services

http://jfs.ohio.gov

Office of Workforce Developmenthttp://jfs.ohio.gov/owd/

Bureau of Labor Market Informationhttp://OhioLMI.com

Bureau of Labor Market Information Business Principles for Workforce Development

• Partner with the workforce and economic development community.

• Develop and deploy new information solution tools and systems for the workforce and economic development community.

• Provide products and services that are customer- and demand-driven.

• Be known as an important and reliable source for information solutions that support workforce development goals and outcomes.

This periodical is published under the direction of Bureau Chief Coretta Pettway. For further information, visit http://OhioLMI.com or call the Ohio Bureau of Labor Market Information at 1-888-296-7541 option 6, or (614) 752-9494.

If you would like to receive email notification when this publication is posted on our website, call (614) 752-9494 or email [email protected] to be placed on the email notification list.

Production of this report was funded by a grant awarded by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment and Training Administration. See http://ohiolmi.com/grant_product_attribution.htm for full details.This institution is an equal opportunity provider and employer. A proud partner of the American Job Center network.

OHIO · 2020-03-16 · Ohio’s seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment was 5,580,200 in...

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