O'Hanlon: Cut F-35 program

8/8/2019 O'Hanlon: Cut F-35 program

1/28

Foreign Policyat BROOKINGS

Michael OHanlon

Dfs Budgts dAmr Pwr

POLICY PAPER

Number 24, December 2010


2/28

Foreign Policyat BROOKINGS

Michael OHanlon

D B A P

POLICY PAPER

Number 24, December 2010


3/28

F o r e i g n P o l i c y a t B r o o k i n g s

Defense Budgets and American Power

i i

ta B l e o F co n te n ts

I n t r o d u c t i o n

rillion Dollar Deicits and the Decline o Great Powers 4

Understanding the Fiscal Challenge

Saving $60 Billion or 10% in the Annual Deense Program 3

Conclusion 22


4/28



1

in t r o d u c t i o n

I 98, US GDP ,

b bby ,

p

U S, C W

Jp Gy -

qy S , , US

Gy p -

b by ( y) Ep

U (EU) E y; Jp -

p

bbb, b p

pp , b

y, p

A ,

T p p

y pC p p-p R y b p b

U S p-

y W I -

? W b

A p y

y y ? M ,

, x U

S y -

b p by pb

py? P py pp y,

x U S, p

b y

pp, p

b p p

?

T pp q by x-

p b q b -

y y p y I

py p A-

b Fy, -

b -

p ,

pp xp p b

k b

b A I -

, by

p , j- p US

by A pp

y b b, x, -

Iq A p

O

k C p-

by U

S 2 T

p , -

p, ,

O , xp, M Mb, Te Frugal Superpower: Americas Global Leadership in a Cash-Strapped Era (N Yk: PbA, 2)

2 O C U S p, xp A B C W J Py, Preventive Deense: A New Security Strategyor America (W, DC: Bk, 999); pp 92-22; C F B, C F, N R Ly, Dk J M,Chinas Rise: Challenges and Opportunities(W, DC: P I I E CSIS, 28), pp 22-229


5/28



2

, pby b

p, , pp,

p -p

b p3 B y

A y p p

by y -

p k C, z,

z p y b p N

y US Dp D

p y4 A

, y pp x US

b k b

b y p

b , b py- p-

jpz by y

y y

US by p p-

y p p-

b j-p

N y y ; U S

k ,

y k

x-

p b, y

p p-

H,

b j

A pbby y

y - , y by

p

ky

y C J C S

A M, Sy D G,

Sy S C US

b y

y y 5 M

b b y A p-

, , A pb ky y

p py,

by pbby

b b y b p7

T pp b p

US b ,

ppp , b

p b z P-

ppp S ,

y p-

k b

My

P p p

, y -

by D 9, -

p ypy 8 9 p

p (GDP); 97,

b 8 p j -

5 p GDP; R bp

98, p GDP b

C W I

99, y 5 p p

3 p D P

G W B, ( )

4 p by 25 y

27; x 45 p b

5 p by 29/2 S ,

( pp b)

y 8

3 J D Sb, Principles o Global Security(W, DC: Bk, 2)4 S xp, J ,Airsea Battle: A Point-o-Departure Operational Concept(W, DC: C S By

A, 2); A F Kp, 7 Deadly Scenarios(N Yk: B Bk, 29), 9-29; R C, Mk B, M SC, Dk E, K L Pp, Entering the Dragons Lair(S M, C: RAND, 27); S E J DL, , Coping with the Dragon (W, DC: N D Uy, 27)

5 A Mk M: N Db I O B Sy T, Hungton Post,J 24, 2, b [ Nb 8, 2]

R H C F R p; xp R N H, War o Necessity, War o Choice(N Yk:S S, 29)

7 Of M B, Historical ables: Budget o the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2011 (W, DC: G POf, 2), p 4

8 Of M B, Historical ables: Budget o the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2011 (W, DC: G POf, 2), p 4
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/24/adm-mike-mullen-national_n_624096.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/24/adm-mike-mullen-national_n_624096.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/24/adm-mike-mullen-national_n_624096.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/06/24/adm-mike-mullen-national_n_624096.html


6/28



3

By , z P b

b y p ( b p, 45 p

28, I

I S S)9 Ay, y

29 2 y p

(pp 7 b y) x

C W -j p 45 b by 5 p (xp 29 -

, p) I,

p x C W -

y I ,

y p z

A p, , -

y p (y b,

38 b, 55 b py 29)

T b y ,

, y pbby

T US b , y

y pb y ,

b

A Y

,

y p

C W A ,

, b -y py

W k p Oy by y x

p

b x ( f) T ky y

y , p-

z p -

, p xy

B , k k

A b y y

y 2 y

9 I I S S, Te Military Balance 2010(Ox, E: R, 2), p 48 Of M B, Historical ables, pp 2, 83


7/28



4

tr i l l i o n do l l a r de F i c i t s a n d t h e

de c l i n e o F great Po w e rs

T y,

y b ky y

p b ,

y z y -

y b , -

S z P

, y , , y, b

, Cz H-

, pp b

, y b

b kp p

Uy, by

, by b y ,

py p

k p q

ppy

A Ep y py,

p

pp T Sp A Hbb

/p, P K-

y, p y y

b k W y b k

y 7 y, y

p Sbq-

y, N p

p p k

by p -

bb -

y z y -

y p k F,

B, R2 B p

9 y y y z pp

(7 p 3) p-

y p p -

b y

pp y

2 y I -

p, xp, 3

p 87 4 p 93 ( Gy

y 3 p, U

S 23 3 p)4

I p-W W II , S -

, pp, y y

U S C W -

b N,

b , x-

y p T pb j

US Jp Gy

T

A y b ,

Ty, History o the Peloponnesian War(N Yk: P Bk, 98); S z, Te Art o War(L: Ox Uy P,93); A F Kp, F Cy Cp: T P My R, Te National Interest(F 994); SpB,Military Power(P, NJ: P Uy P, 24); M C, echnolog y and War(N Yk: F P, 99); Mx B, War Made New: echnolog y, Warare, and the Course o History, 1500 to oday(N Yk: G Bk, 2)

2 P Ky, Te Rise and Fall o the Great Powers (N Yk: R H, 987), pp x-x, 993 Ky, Te Rise and Fall o the Great Powers, p 994 A L Fb, Te Weary itan: Britain and the Experience o Relative Decline, 1895-1905(P, NJ: P Uy P, 988),

pp 2, 33


8/28



5

, by b

y p C W b

y A P

Rb Gp :5

T S-

W W 98

kb yF p

95, p

9 y y 97 D-

ppxy y-y p,

p p I-

p

, y , -

p

p[,] -

y- Px B, A-

y b I

b

b x Ky p

V W

9A b -

p p, U S

p

A p Gp bk,

ky q j A

p A

p -

b p

pp ,

Gp y , :

T k U S

b

p p

p

I b p -

b, -

by

b b

Cy, S U , p

US y 99,

Jp bbb b,

Gy -

B by 2 y,

p-

y p pp k -

y 99

, , j -

I 2 y,

A k b

p, py C, p

S H y

j p ,

98, k qy -

U S -

y y b b

b p p k -

y I

, b pyk pb k

US y, y x pb

y 7 T q , -

y? D pb

bk b p b

- -

- y p?8

5 Rb Gp, Te Political Economy o International Relations(P, NJ: P Uy P, 987), pp 34-347 Rb Gp, War and Change in World Politics(L: Cb Uy P, 98), p 247 S P H, T USD R? Foreign Aairs(W 988/89), pp 7-98 F p bj A py p pb , E S E, Understanding Americas

Contested Primacy(W, DC: C S By A, 2); W C W, T Sby UpW, International Security, 24, (S 999), pp 5-4; M M, Sy Mk P k: US P I P Ey, World Politics, , (Jy 29), pp 2-54; By P, C C: MyF US Hy, International Security, 28, (S 23), pp 5-4; Cp Ly, T Up I R:T C E U S Up M, International Security, 3, 2 (F 2), pp 47-72; A L Fb, TS Ip R E D, Political Science Quarterly, 4, 3 (F 989), pp 4-43


9/28



6

T U S y p

I p p,

2 p b GDP

p p py 25 p

x- 9

T p 5 p

U S W W II

US p p- y b y p-

b (py) k by I

, y US y

p y Ep

Jp, y -

p k S K

T, US GDP

p b by

b A y

k T

W p ,

p, y

pb y k

US 2

A b y,

ky U-

S y b T

W P C -

y, , b p -

Nx b

y p M, U S

y y y ,

S W y ,

b b b

yp p Ep p

p2 E j -

W p

pb y , V,

p , y

U S

y A , j y -

z A- -

(T S Cp C -

R C y

k , b y y

y p pp)

T kb -

y qy

A y, U S b

y p -

y 8 p b GDP

8 p b y

p b 22 T y

NAO , y b

E A W P, R P

L A , (

y b q y, A y

pp , I, G Cp-

C, Iq A Aby,

Pk I b p

y ; , y

A j , y

C R y -

b q k

A A p

I, N K, pp Vz-

, Sy B

y 2 p

b p y p T

k

U S xy

9 W Bk, World Development Report 2010(W, DC: 29), p 38, b [ Ob , 2]

2 G J Ikby,Ater Victory: Institutions , Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding o Order ater Major Wars(P, NJ: P UyP, 2)

2 Sp M W, Te Origins o Alliances(I, NY: C Uy P, 99) W y b Ap p aming American Power(N Yk: WW N C, 2) B p b W py S xp pp -2 bk

22 M E OH, Budgeting or Hard Power: Deense and Security Spending Under Barack Obama (W, DC: Bk, 29), p 24;I I S S, Te Military Balance 2010(Ox, E: R, 2), pp 42-48; W Bk,World Development Report 2010(W, DC: 29), pp 378-38
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/5287678-1226014527953/Statistical-Annex.pdfhttp://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/5287678-1226014527953/Statistical-Annex.pdfhttp://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/5287678-1226014527953/Statistical-Annex.pdfhttp://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/5287678-1226014527953/Statistical-Annex.pdf


10/28



7

T A A

Jp Ny , y p,

py, -

b y y23 E

p , A

b y W-b -

k C, R, I

b p pp- b - py

p

PRC ,24 -

pp, pp

pp z25 M,

b, I y ky b

A D y b -

p b, b -

pb

U S, y y

I pp b

2 W -p p,

by C, y -

pp U S

T b

, y 58

p

A 27 W US -

p b

, - US k p

( I ) -

p b T

xp k U S

,

b B b p

y j p

A U Sb

pb y, p p-

, p pp, -

, , ,

I b p,

y b py T U S

k, -

p T

b ,

k , -

, k y

b

p GDP by by

py xp y

94 - by -

p p

I , US

b p GDP, b ,

8

p 2 p b -

28 My - -

p pp p ,

W b29 Aby,

j p b b

b F xp, C p

- pp,

, DVD py, , k

y 3 C

23 Jp S Ny, J, T F A P, Foreign Aairs, 89, (Nb/Db 2), pp 2-224 F W, C Pp Dy: T L C, W, DC, Bk, Spb 2, b [ Nb 8, 2]25 N I C, Global rends 2025: A ransormed World(W, DC: 28), pp 24-272 O I y py, Sp P C S Dp,Arming Without Aiming: Indias Military Modernization

(W, DC: Bk, 2), pp -28 I p I y k C - j p B b b p (y - GDP), I p --

p py xp pp p j , SH I G W Op C, I Sp E M, A Bp b F R, Te Economist, Ob 2-8,2, pp , 75-77

27 L Tp, R I D: A R D B, Lx I, A, V, A 29, p 528 I My F, World Economic Outlook(Ob 2), p 24, b [ Ob , 2]; W B R, J Rb Ky, P G P, Rb Bxby, R App H O US E C, M E OH, , Opportunity 08: Independent Ideas or Americas Next President, (W, DC: Bk, 28), pp 22-23

29 A A, Te Emerging Markets Century: How a New Breed o World-Class Companies Is Overtaking the World(N Yk: F P,27), pp 9-5

3 F Zk, Te Post-American World(N Yk: W W N C, 28), p 9
http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2010/09_china_population_wang.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/articles/2010/09_china_population_wang.aspxhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/pdf/tables.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/pdf/tables.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/pdf/tables.pdfhttp://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/pdf/tables.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/articles/2010/09_china_population_wang.aspxhttp://www.brookings.edu/articles/2010/09_china_population_wang.aspx


11/28



8

S K Jp b p-

b; U S by p b-

p b3 T

-

, ,

A p py32

T U S pb Dp b b

- y

y,

y k p, -

p p GDP 22

p 979 j 5 p

33 Upy ,

p, b b

y pp k k

H py y bb y

y, p y

b , b-

jb y

W y pp, y - -

k p y

F , A

b

, py

b xp p

( p p, b

y y A pp y

) Up by

b y f 34 T

Ob b y py

, b y

ky -

b y b- z

- E bp,

- -p ,

y, py -

97 b

2835

S y

y pb

by b k ypy 2

4 pp y,

3 p-

y W E

F3 A x-

, ,

y

b

Oy p A -

y ,

25 33 p

38 p K37

A k

p U S y

-p j p bb

py C p

pp 2 b py

x b 8 b

b p38 T

pp

p y

q y E pb

- ,

3 Spb A Jp, Spb S, ky, Jp, M, 2, b [ Nb 2, 2]

32 I B, Te End o the Free Market(N Yk: P, 2), pp 8-2433 Ex Of P, Economic Report o the President 2010(W, DC: 2), b B-2, b [ Ob 8, 2]34 H B P, Ay L, Rb S, Py M C: E G Up Mby A A, M

E OH, , Opportunity 08: Independent Ideas or Americas Next President, (W, DC: Bk, 28), pp 22-229

35 R Hk Ib V S, Ak Py Iqy: R F G Oppy, M E OH,, Opportunity 08: Independent Ideas or Americas Next President, (W, DC: Bk, 28), p 23

3 Jy J Kz, C M M, B F M, S, y, E, M (SEM) EI L Op, W, DC, C R S, My 22, 2, p ; W E F, Te GlobalCompetitiveness Report 2009-2010(G, Sz: 29), p 7

37 D M W, Brain Gain: Rethinking U.S. Immigration Policy(W, DC: Bk, 2), p 338 S P R Oz, D, C B Of, I I, y b US S C

F, Jy , 28, p 8
http://www.sajn.or.jp/c/statistics/Shipbuilding_Statistics_Mar2010.pdfhttp://www.sajn.or.jp/c/statistics/Shipbuilding_Statistics_Mar2010.pdfhttp://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables10.htmlhttp://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables10.htmlhttp://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables10.htmlhttp://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables10.htmlhttp://www.sajn.or.jp/c/statistics/Shipbuilding_Statistics_Mar2010.pdfhttp://www.sajn.or.jp/c/statistics/Shipbuilding_Statistics_Mar2010.pdf


12/28



9

ppy p

b b pbby b

S b y ;

xp, My 33 b

p b

py y

b ( y z

b)39 C, , p O ,

A y p b

y, p

by

p4

39 Cp W H M A P, R B A C, N L C, W, DC, Ob 2,b [ Ob 7, 2]; My S , Washington Post, Ob 3, 2, p A8

4 J S Df, Over a Barrel: Te Costs o U.S. Foreign Oil Dependence(S, C: S Uy P, 28), pp -2
http://www.nlc.org/http://www.nlc.org/


13/28



10

understanding t h e F i s c a l ch alle n g e

I y, b

y p D b

b -

y, x-

W b ,

y T -

p j 2 p 35 y

,

b D b -

, b by pb b

b b

4 p GDP b

p I xp 7 p by

x

y

, y p

b4

M, b py b

by A; by 42

B by A,

y p A

ppy, k qy, T y-

kp p U S,

y by

p EU

, H, y p

A p

y I p -

p U S b

-

by, y k y

93 by py W E F43

C pj p-

, Ty b y

b p pp I x

k B y -

y kp p b -

pp,

5 b by -

by b C-

b pb x p GDP y 22,

kp xb

pb 44

S b b Ty

, b q

q ,

p ky

-A Ty k x-

4 S xp, C B Of, Te Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update(W, DC: A 2), p 442 D M Wk, Comeback America: urning the Country Around and Restoring Fiscal Responsibility(N Yk: R H, 29), p 2243 D M Sk, Te World Is Curved: Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy(N Yk: P, 29), pp 2-; K Sb, , T

Gb Cp Rp 29-2, W E F, G, Sz, 29, p 22; Zk, Te Post-American World,pp 9-2

44 W A G My MG, T F I N: A B P Sbz Pb Db P E G,W, DC, Bk I, Spb 2, p


14/28



11

y b

ypb , j ,

A

US y H

k b y b

py (CBO

pj py 2 b- 2 y 8 b 22,

y b p b

b)45

S

k p -

p ,

p? T p

q

T by

, A b p GDP

b b

x

4 T,

b b kp

b p GDP A b-

pp pb py y

p GDP b

xp GDP pb

I , z b

GDP b Spy,

b pb - GDP

- GDP

y, b z

y y 47

kp p,

27 b y p-

by p

j b p

b Iq A, y

US GDP y p

b 2 A B- x

bk z y p,

y p 58 b

( y 725 b y p

k x) A x

B x py 3

b , p b

y py- k 9 b

y W b B

x x, pj

b 8 b, 4 p GDP,

I k p b-

q (T b y -

xp 5

b y, b y

P

b z -j

pp-

T qy pb

p b b b y

)48

kp b y

, 8 b

b T

4 b y p , x

y, x W

y y,

y by py

by p T, y kp

(

P k y, -

k b py

pb

y p) B -

p b 5 p p, y

y b xp b b-

(A p, b

k,

45 C B Of, Te Budget and Economic Outlook, pp , 2-224 G MG, T F I N, p 447 P Oz, O N, D, Te New York imes, Spb , 2, b [ Ob 7, 2]

Oz y 3 p GDP b , y b py48 C B Of, Te Budget and Economic Outlook, p 4
http://www.nytimes.com/http://www.nytimes.com/


15/28



12

p y b-

pp 2 p y b

, b

b )

T b b

I p -

, b p b y , x py, I

p p b

k -

y p,

y b pp b

b I j

N, b b;

by -

D-R k , y

xp (I pp

p - - p

b ky

p Ty pp z -

- p y, -

b by b

p )49 N-

, b b; ,

b b b p

I , k

p b xy pp-

y b-

by, p b p

O p , Sy G y

b p

p P Ob -

P y b k

b

T ,

, , A-

y b p

py p pb

b ,

p b

A , b -

b

b , b

yy p CBO b T b

y k b p p -

py M

p, , ,

qp , qp z-

, k p

T -

pj p k

b y y

by Sy G; p

I , CBO

b q

x b b 2 p

- (

q) My b

27 b

b ky b py

not p y b-

j 5

T, , pp

y, b

b, I

27 y y y,

y

y kp

By p, x y , -

j b p b b

b xp 2 ,

y -

xp b, x

54 b b p

49 S S P D D A R, -, R A F, Bp Py C, W, DC, Nb2, pp 9-7, b [ Nb 7, 2]

5 C B Of, Long-erm Implications o the Fiscal Year 2010 Deense Budget (W, DC, Jy 2), pp -33, b [ Spb 2, 2]
http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FINAL%20Report%202011.16.10.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/http://www.cbo.gov/http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FINAL%20Report%202011.16.10.pdf


16/28



13

saving $60 B i l l i o n o r 10% in t h e

an n ual de Fe n se Pro g ram

My b-

b b p -

b pp US p

, qky p

T p, b y pp

b by k py

y b U S k k py P y, I

b pb k b -

py -y

p pyk Sy G

jb y

p, b k -

k y

, y b

p y b

- b (-

p k Ay b y y

)5 W b b qp

py A DD y

- p

p, p b-

y, bp

T pp p

b p k

p , bqy, p

p:

) OUGHER MANAGEMEN

2) SMALLER GROUND FORCES (ONCE

CURREN WARS ARE OVER)

3) MORE SELECIVE

MODERNIZAION EFFORS

I , pp b b b y y T

b 2 b y,

k , , b

y by G, pp-

b S

pp ; y

p y, py -

22 p

p A R,

py b

tougher management

S b by -

pp Sy G

py, py Ob -

I y 29, p

Ay F Cb Sy, -

p F-22 , y -

p bb, -

y -b q p

j R&D , DDG-

5 S M J S, D, Aq S M, D Aq: Ob Wp PP Aq R, GAO--7, G Aby Of, W, DC, My 9, 2, p 4


17/28



14

y I 2, pp J F

C, b f

y, b k by

p y y

T b C -

by p k

p pp b y, p F xp, -

b 99 pz-

pp , y

3 p pp

p B y

pz y , b 3 p-

,

p

A , y p

I

p; ,

P

b y p xpy

p Spy, k

:52

A S-

y G J F C

pb -

, b

z y

p E y -

E

j pp b

S ,

Ep C, p

b y b p

p A k b

b 2

b y,

-

y

I y p -

y G py b

, b

yp p CBO p

b 5 b53

C y x -

DD T k -

b pp y ,

, y

b U S,

b y y B

y b -

, -

b fy CBO p

b y b

y b y 54

I y

p T RICARE y p

xy y

W b b -

, by , y

x y p -

y, b z x

( ) N

b b

; , , -

y py

yp y y

R

y y b

y

b y55

52 F yp , Sp J Hy W J Py, C-C, T QDR Pp: M A NSy N 2 Cy, W, DC, Q D R Ip P, 2, pp 7-79, b [ Ob 2, 2]

53 O , C B Of, Budget Options(W, DC, 29), pp 24-25, b [ Ob 2, 2]

54 C B Of, Budget Options, pp 28-2955 C B Of, Te Eects o Proposals to Increase Cost-Sharing in RICARE(W, DC: 29), p 4
http://www.usip.org/files/qdr/qdrreport.pdfhttp://www.usip.org/files/qdr/qdrreport.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/102xx/doc10294/08-06-BudgetOptions.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/102xx/doc10294/08-06-BudgetOptions.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/102xx/doc10294/08-06-BudgetOptions.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/102xx/doc10294/08-06-BudgetOptions.pdfhttp://www.usip.org/files/qdr/qdrreport.pdfhttp://www.usip.org/files/qdr/qdrreport.pdf


18/28



15

E b by -

, T y y -

by 2 y

P b (k py-

4K p )

p py

p R RICARE L yby C

99 y

,

p , p-

y y b-

y by b

A k, z -

k , k -

y y k T k

y kby

p q

p y b y

p -

y pp E

k k T

by p pp b -

b

smaller ground Forces

O Iq A y

, y b pb

US Ay M Cp

C y B 5 T

y 5 p , -

b T -

b bp

, Ap, Py, C,

R pp -y p57

p , -

y US Ay b 55, -y -

, p , b

py ( , y 8,

N G j 3,

Ay R) T US M Cp b

2, , 5, M -

py 58 By , Ay 2 472, M

Cp b 7,59 Ex -

, , k 5 p p

ppxy

I , y

45 b b

Ay 28 N G T

Ay 3 b b

8 p T

M, z y -

y b

, y

4 y A , 5

p , pp-

y, Ay b

b 38 b N

G b 24, b -

7 b N

G , py T M

p pp 2 , y 3

y py

F k , b US y

py Iq A ypy -

b 2 b b --

b 22 Iq

y C py

b p

56 For a similar argument see Sustainable Deense Task Force, Debt, Defcits, and Deense: A Way Forward, available at [accessed September 15, 2010], p. vii.

57 S xp, Fk W K, Finding the arget: Te ransormation o American Military Policy(N Yk: E Bk, 2), pp8-97, 222-23, 28-28

58 I I S S, Te Military Balance 2010(Ox, E: R, 2), pp 32-3859 I I S S, Te Military Balance 2000(Ox, E: Ox Uy P, 2), pp 2-3 Sy D Rb G, Quadrennial Deense Review Report(W, DC: Dp D, Fby 2), p 4 L by P Oz, D, C B Of, S K C, C, S C B, W,

DC, Fby , 28, p 4, b [ Ob 2, 2]
http://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/1006SDTFreport.pdfhttp://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/1006SDTFreport.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/89xx/doc8971/02-11-WarCosts_Letter.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/89xx/doc8971/02-11-WarCosts_Letter.pdfhttp://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/1006SDTFreport.pdfhttp://www.comw.org/pda/fulltext/1006SDTFreport.pdf


19/28



16

T p b Ay

M Cp y py

y

b b py F

, :2, p

k :5 A 38 Ay b b

, 24 N G b b ,

M y b b py b

b ( M y

q Ay b) 4 N-

G b, 2 T

b p k

99 p

Iq y 23;

pk 5 2 b

y 2 B

b py 22 b

py 27/28 j Iq A,

y K K

b-z p

S b

k j

xp pb p-

k 5 p py

( xp, y y

- py b )3

N y y f py I,

pb , p Pk,

N K (y,

y )

Y

Ty b q

p Iq A-

( x z) Ty

b zb pbby q

N K k

S K F z

by -

A 4

E k p bz -p , US

p f p T , y

f p y

py , b

b

p

M, b

k x US p

I ,

,

j y y -

, b k x

-/- p, - p

, by 5

F 5 p py y

p p -

b 2 b y, p I

p

y y

B y b b -

b y

py ; ,

y -

b b T

p k Gy J-

p, b by ky

U S, p b

2 S xp, Sy D L Ap, Report on the Bottom-Up Review(W, DC: Dp D, 993), pp 2-2;T Dy, Operation Iraqi Freedom: A Strategic Assessment(W, DC: A Ep I, 24), pp 32-5; AyH C, Te Iraq War: Strategy, actics, and Military Lessons(W, DC: CSIS, 2), pp 37-4; M R G GB E , Cobra II: Te Inside Story o the Invasion and Occupation o Iraq(N Yk: P Bk, 2), pp 38-54; DOb, Te wo Koreas: A Contemporary History(R, M: A-Wy, 997), p 35;

3 O Iq , xp, Kby K, Te Surge: A Military History(N Yk: E Bk, 29), pp xx-xxx4 K M Pk, D L By, M Iyk, Sz My, M E OH, B R, Which Path to Persia: Options

or a New American Strategy toward Iran (W, DC: Bk, 29), pp 94-985 R S,Moving U.S. Forces: Options or Strategic Mobility(W, DC: C B Of, 997); M E

OH, Deense Strategy or the Post-Saddam Era (W, DC: Bk, 25), pp -2


20/28



17

y , Jp

p, y y b lessxp kp

b ky y py

b , b p,

E ,

b py pp -b T b y -

y z b

A ,

p, ,

, p pb

y ppy

j b E y p

k ppy b

,

xp qp

y S -

b y

y pp b y

, b k

k b -

f7 A , -

b by 5 p

y

more selective modernizationwithattentiontothe industrial Base

A y pp

z p US y q-

qp T pp -

b y p

, 99, p-

b by -

R- B

T U S k

p y y

b qp R

bp,

b qp

b y

T bk y y

y, S p x,

, 98 b

y b I , y y

p 99 U S

bk xb fy

8 py p A

99 p, US

y , jb

T y I ,

q b zb by

- ,

py b ypy

j p b-

T y by

y q b

p ppp

b pp p y

b y p p-

y

T b k p

,, 99

j , , xpy

y US b

jb p9 I -

, j j

bB, Ry, Np

G, Lk M, G Dy-

b pb

yp p y j

A , b

b kp , b

y

M OH, Unnished Business: U.S. Overseas Military Presence in the 21st Century(W, DC: C N ASy, 28), p 37

7 S R W T, Eects o Weapons Procurement Stretch-Outs on Costs and Schedules(W, DC: C B Of, 987),pp 7-8; M E OH, Te Science o War(P, NJ: P Uy P, 2), pp 8-3

8 R W T, Te Economic Eects o Reduced Deense Spending(W, DC: C B Of, 992), pp 5-429 B by Rb H , S V P, Lk M, T B Ap D, W, DC, Spb 2, p 8


21/28



18

b b b -

7 C pb py b ,

k y 7 T by kp

k p b 72

I y b kp y

b

p, b b N , P

p b x b-

y I , p,

(RD&E) b 8 b-

, p b q b

by 73 B-k p -

8 b p,

p, 55 b

b p 22 by

S y y 74

A b pby

p y p bk

b kp , F, p

b , y

y y b b C W y

p T k

P py p

2 y W

, b p p-

, py b p-

, p y b j

b S-k

R, b --

- -- , q -

b, p ,

pp

7 By D W, Te U.S. Deense Industrial Base: Past, Present and Future(W, DC: C S By A,28), pp 32, 8-9

7 Ap I A, T U C: I B Cq D Sy C, A, V, Jy 29, p 72 Hy Py, T QDR Pp, pp 84-973 O y, xp 2 , q b b 5 b y, RD&E

b b 5 b W, Te U.S. Deense Industrial Base, pp 2-2874 S Dp D, S Aq Rp Sy b, Db 3, 29, b [ Spb 3, 2], pp 2-2375 S G L D, A Cp G U S, Mxz DD P F N F C

S Iy Pp, W, DC, G Aby Of, Jy , 2, b 7 M E OH, Te Science o War(P, NJ: P Uy P, 29), pp 8-3; Ay B, Paying or Military

Readiness and Upkeep: rends in Operation and Maintenance Spending(W, DC: C B Of, 997), pp 5-577 Sp J Hy W J Py, C-C, T QDR Pp: M A N Sy N 2

Cy, W, DC, Q D R Ip P, 2, p 53, b [ Ob 2, 2]

-S U S

, p, by, -

DD py

S, y b p p

xp

b 75

xp -- p y p

y p

T, p y

p p p,

y p

b p

F, b

py py , -

py

bysomethingb, , b

qp A , p

y b

7 A y A F

2 y , Ny

M Cp 5,

p yp p -

yp y

b 77

S q pb y -

y y by C W y y -

, b by - A

p b E b

, p- -

b y (
http://www.acq.osd.mil/ara/2009%20DEC%20SAR.pdfhttp://www.acq.osd.mil/ara/2009%20DEC%20SAR.pdfhttp://www.gao.gov/http://www.usip.org/files/qdr/qdrreport.pdfhttp://www.usip.org/files/qdr/qdrreport.pdfhttp://www.gao.gov/http://www.acq.osd.mil/ara/2009%20DEC%20SAR.pdfhttp://www.acq.osd.mil/ara/2009%20DEC%20SAR.pdf


22/28



19

pp p ), -

py ( xp), p z

b y y

p B , xp,

A F Ny M Cp p

by 2,5 F-35 b j p

25 b

I y pb p k b -

z A b y

y z US

Ny, xp, C b

b

I p j b

P G Ay xp

b p A

by xp pb

Ty y xp b -

y - k

p (k bb, y by

G b) C b-

p and

k p

b p78 B -

p y -

, ,

, b p

xp p xp

py k

ppy

F , I

pp x p z-

p y -

:

Wp k x -

p

b py T -

by b -

b p b b bkC p y,

b, -

pp 79

Wp pp b

p S, b -

b A b

y T ,

y p

z

py

y, b 8

Wp p pyy

y b 8

Wp p -

, b y ,

py N

p z pp M

Cp pb pb x-

p O b ;

p b yp

ppy b

p

y p 82

78 S xp T G Mk, S B D, Proceedings(J 2), pp 3-4, b [Spb 5, 2]; Sp J Hy W J Py, -, T QDR Pp: M A N Sy N 2 Cy, W, DC, 2, b [ Ob , 2]; J V ,

AirSea Battle: A Point-o-Departure Operational Concept(W, DC: C S By A, 2)79 S PW S, Wired or War: Te Robotics Revolution and Confict in the 21stCentury(N Yk: P P, 29); M E

OH, echnological Change and the Future o Warare(W, DC: Bk, 2), p 58 F xp , My C M, Slide Rules and Submarines: American Scientists and Subsurace Warare in

World War II(H, H: Uy P P, 22); p yb, xp Sp P R, Winning the Next War(C Uy P, 99)

8 T N-MCy A 982 D Az A p p xby 5 p S Dp D, S Aq Rp (SAR) Sy b, W, DC, Ap 2,2, p 3, b [ Nb 2, 2]

82 F p , y y y , (k -p p y p ), T P M B, Te Pentagons New Map: War and Peace in the wenty-FirstCentury(N Yk: GP P, 24) I B -p ky b b k x pp by
http://www.usni.org/http://www.usip.org/files/qdr/qdrreport.pdfhttp://www.acq.osd.mil/ara/2009%20DEC%20SAR.pdfhttp://www.acq.osd.mil/ara/2009%20DEC%20SAR.pdfhttp://www.usip.org/files/qdr/qdrreport.pdfhttp://www.usni.org/


23/28



20

I , p y

b :83

C M Pp F

(F) Sp, p M

p b p,

-

( b - p ) b 2 b

P p

j k F-35 T yp

F-35, -k -

pby, b , b U

S F-22

p pb-

x Dp p-

p k, by F-35

p b p F- F-8, b

4 b

S bk -pp

p, p

-b y C

Ak, A -b ,

HAAD -b ,

-b - y

pp E-

p (P MEADS) A

, p p

, b 4 b

SLBM -pp -

p -

Dp Ey

p p px,

b b-b b

b T b

xy b

k b p z; -

, by pby

D5

pb p

b p A (b DD p, DD p,

DE ) b 25 b

Rp M Cp V-22 -

Opy p x--

p b

b

C M Cp Exp-

y F V, p

y pb ,

b 75

H -

p L Cb Sp,

pp b

b b y

k -

, y

p p C G

p S ( -

p k

),

b 2 b

A -

p

9, pp-

5 b84 T b y by

pz

83 O , C B Of, Budget Options(W, DC, 29), pp 5-2, b [ Ob 2, 2]; Dp D, S Aq Rp (SAR)Sy b, Db 3, 29, pp 2-23, b [ Ob 2, 2]; M E OH,A Skeptics Case or Nuclear Disarmament(W, DC: Bk, 2), pp -3

84 M E OH, Te Science o War(P, NJ: P Uy P, 29), p 2
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/102xx/doc10294/08-06-BudgetOptions.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/102xx/doc10294/08-06-BudgetOptions.pdfhttp://www.acq.osd.mil/ara/2009%20DEC%20SAR.pdfhttp://www.acq.osd.mil/ara/2009%20DEC%20SAR.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/102xx/doc10294/08-06-BudgetOptions.pdfhttp://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/102xx/doc10294/08-06-BudgetOptions.pdf


24/28



21

p A M-

, A

p -p P I-

O 85

T b x I

b by

b 5 b by - pp b

85 O , p , xp, Rb D Kp,Monsoon (N Yk: R H,2); R C B, Te Perils o Proximity(W, DC: Bk, 2), A S Ek, W C L III, JD Mky, D G U S E I O Sy,Asian Security, , 3 (Spb-Db 2), pp24-237

p O b

p, k pp, p -

b My

pp , , p

p z

k ppy by

b k

b q 2 b


25/28



22

co n clus io n

O p

k j T

U S y

p-W W II

y py -

, M

; GDP p

p y-

By b -

b p y

p p y pbby

b pp b

p -

b y p-

y B k k pp

I, k I

y y Ty k

y p b

My p-

pp k y

k p y

p A ,

by y - b by

z y k

T py,

x py, p -k P p

b b

H, p

, q -

y b b q

S p p b U Sby P b b pb ppyT by xp p

b y

T b p p C b ; p k k y p p U S, y, Ty b - y

I b k p b - 5 b , by y by SyG, y b T k US, A- y, p pp b M -, , p z- b

T U S p- xp - I , , y x b - p T -y k pp

b


26/28



23

E ky - k k

B-Sp

p ,

b b p p

p j -

y T

p y y pp

xp j y H, , y

b b b p

b p b

pby p

p y U S


27/28



24

aBo ut t h e auth o r

Michael OHanlon S F D- R F Py Bk H

D R Bk 2

Cy D I OH pz

US y, y , -

y A py H

P Uy jp J Hpk Uy OH -

y Sy S I

Sy Ay B B j Bk,

OH k y y

C B Of

OH bk A Skeptics Case or Nu-

clear Disarmament (Bk, 2), T S

W (P Uy P, 29)

Budgeting or Hard Power (Bk, 29) H

k bk A

p py, b Bk-

Iq, Pk, A , p- OH bk Hard

Power: Te New Politics o National Security (

K Cpb)


28/28

T Brkgs Isttut1775 Mssustts Av., NW

Wsgt, D.C. 20036brkgs.du

O'Hanlon: Cut F-35 program

Documents

Transcript of O'Hanlon: Cut F-35 program