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Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment
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Michael W. Slimak, Ph.D.
Climate Change and Invasive Species
The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and they do not
necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
Source: Koblinsky 2006 ICLEI
Observed Temperature Changes 1901 - 2004
Observed Temp Trends & Ecosystem Responses
Cht. 14, IPCC 2007
UrbanizationFlow regulation
Etc.
Climate ChangeAnthropogenicChange(Drivers)
ISS IAG IJG ISDABiological
ImpactSpawningSubstrate
AdultGrowth
SpawningDays
Available
JuvenileGrowth
FlowStressors
Food
Sediment Temperature
Climate Change not the only StressorInteractive effect of multiple stressors; climate is exacerbating
Temperature, hydrologic, geomorphic ecological processes & species
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Take Home Message
• Earth is getting warmer; climate is changing with a regional texture • Anthropogenic global warming due to excess GHG’s; CO2 the most
important• Rate of GHG increase and rate of global warming is of concern • Climate change and invasive species are inextricably linked • As climate changes, we can expect ecosystem changes• Ecosystem changes results in shifts in plant and animal distributions• Rapid ecosystem change favors species with high genetic plasticity• Many successful invaders have high plasticity as they are pioneers • Profound impact on co-evolution of ecosystems and their components
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US Government’s Climate Change Science Program
• Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)– 13 federal agencies
– Current research & assessments based on 2003 strategic plan
• Five broad goals1. Research of past & present climate change & variability
2. Quantification of Earth’s climate and related systems
3. Reduce uncertainty in climate change projections
4. Understand climate change impacts to ecosystems & humans
5. Knowledge to manage risks & opportunities related to climate change
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CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Reports
• 21 Reports due out over the next year• The “4 series” involves impacts and adaptation
4.1 Sea level rise
4.2 Thresholds of change
4.3 Impacts on agriculture, biodiversity, land & water resources
4.4 Adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems
4.5 Impacts on energy production
4.6 Impacts on human health, welfare and human settlements
4.7 Impacts on transportation systems
• Available at WWW. USGCRP.GOV
2007 IPCC Report on Impacts & AdaptationMain Points for Freshwater Systems & Management
• Seasonal shift in streamflow– Increased winter flows, less snow storage
• Decreased water resources in Western US– Decreased groundwater recharge due to increased population and
water demand• Increased precipitation intensity & variability
– Increased flooding & drought in many areas• Increased water temp, precipitation intensity, and longer periods of
low flows exacerbate water pollution • Sea level rise will increase saltwater intrusion into groundwater &
estuaries–Decreased freshwater availability in coastal areas
Table SPM-1 from IPCC 2007 4th Assessment
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Watersheds are highly sensitive to climate changeGlobal Warming Intensifies the Hydrologic Cycle
In many areas significant changes are likely:- hydrology - water quality - ecosystems
Overview of impacts of climate change on rivers
• Temperature increases likely in most regions
• Rainfall changes less certain: extreme events like storms/droughts will be more common in some areas and less so in others
• Snowmelt earlier in some regions
…. % change in run-off
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Current Water Stress Levels
Chap. 3, IPCC 2007
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Increases in Rainfall
Trends in precipitation: 1901-1998
Green = increaseBrown = decrease
Trends in proportion of precipitation occurring as extreme events: 1910-1995
Shift from Snowfall to Rainfall
Knowles et al. 2005, AGU
Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (MD)
1938
1980N
MarshOpen WaterUpland
1 0 1 2 3
Kilometers
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Climate Change Effects on Aquatic Invasive Species
• Several mechanisms of effects and many consequences for AIS• Changes in air temperature influence changes in water
temperature• Changes in precipitation timing and amount affect water
quantity and quality, and timing of flows• Thermal expansion and polar melting cause sea level rise• Increasing atmospheric CO2 decreases pH
Effects vary regionally and seasonally
Alterations have consequences throughout ecosystem
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Some Consequences for Water Quality
• Re-suspension of bottom sediments & compounds from lower water levels
• Increased turbidity from more intense rainfall• Increased pollution washed from soils from more intense rainfall• Increased algal blooms from increased water temperatures• Enhanced transfer of volatile & semi-volatile compounds with
increasing water temperature• Increased acidification from acidic atmospheric deposition
Chap. 3, IPCC 2007
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Aquatic Ecosystem Impacts
Increasing water temperatures• Decreasing O2 concentration, P release from sediments, increasing
thermal stability, altered mixing patterns in lakes• Earlier ice cover break up, increasing ice free periods• Species moving up in altitude and latitude
– Changing species composition
– Changing seasonality & productivity of plankton
– Changing food web interactions
Chap. 4, IPCC 2007
Evidence of Stream Warming
Strong evidence of changes in length of season
Freeze dates are later,thaw dates are earlier
From J.J. Magnuson and IPCC reports
Climate Change & Fish Habitat in US Streams
Mohseni et al. (2003)
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Aquatic Ecosystem Impacts
Increasing UV-B radiation & temperature• Increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC)• Altered biogeochemical cycles• Changed (probably increased) net primary productivity• Q10 phenomenon
Chap. 4, IPCC 2007
Increased Biological Production
Benke 1993 Elliott and Hurley 2000
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Is it Possible to Reduce Impacts to Aquatic Ecosystems?
Increase resilience of ecosystems• Reduce impacts from other stressors (e.g., pollution, acidification,
desertification, eutrophication, invasive species)– Likely to enhance resilience to climate change
• Maintain habitat connectivity, population sizes, genetic diversity• Restore habitat
– Activities need to account for new environmental conditions
SAP 4.4 of US Climate Change evaluates adaptation options
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Bottom Line
• Climate is changing• Rate of change is more rapid than previously experienced• Will result in profound ecosystem changes• Will favor species with high genetic plasticity• Likely to have major implications for controlling aquatic invasive
species
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For additional information…
EPA Climate Change
www.epa.gov/climatechange/
EPA Global Change Research Program
cfpub.epa.gov/gcrp/
Climate Change Science Program
www.climatescience.gov/
www.usgcrp.gov
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
www.ipcc.ch/
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Acknowledgements
Britta Bierwagen, EPA
Margaret Palmer, University of Maryland
EPA’s Global Change Research Program