Offender Population Forecasting in Virginia

2

Background - Studies by JLARC in 1980s

Staff of the Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC) first reviewed the Department of Corrections’ (DOC) forecasting procedures in 1985 and reported weaknesses in the methods used by DOC to forecast the inmate population.

A 1987 JLARC report recommended changing the forecasting process toward a more open, participative process.

• “The process for producing and validating the forecasts should be expanded to include more participants. Such a process would ensure that key actors in the criminal justice system have input into the forecast. Moreover, such a group would promote general understanding of the forecast and the assumptions which drive it.”

Source: An Overview of Expenditure Forecasting in Four Major State Programs, JLARC (2000)

3

Background - Consensus Forecasting

A more open, participative forecasting process was implemented in the late 1980s and remains in use today.

• This process is known as “consensus” forecasting.

The Secretary of Public Safety oversees this annual process.

4

Authorization – Appropriation Act

5

Committee Structure

Technical Advisory Committee

• Members include personnel from various state agencies who have expertise in statistical and quantitative methods.

Technical/Policy Liaison Work Group

• Members include staff of House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committees as well as agency deputy directors and senior managers.

Policy Advisory Committee

• Members include policy makers and other decision makers who administer the criminal justice system.

6

Technical Advisory Committee Membership

Department of Corrections (DOC)

Department of Juvenile Justice (DJJ)

Department of Planning and Budget (DPB)

Department of Criminal Justice Services (DCJS)

Compensation Board (CB)

Supreme Court of Virginia (SCV)

Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission (VCSC)

Joint Legislative Audit & Review Commission (JLARC)

VCU Economics Professor

Chairperson selected by the Secretary of Public Safety

Meredith Farrar-Owens (2006-2008)

7

Policy Advisory Committee Membership

Secretary of Public Safety

DOC Director

DJJ Director

DPB Director

DCJS Director

Virginia Parole Board Chair

Virginia State Police Colonel

Compensation Board Executive Secretary

Supreme Court of Virginia

Commonwealth’s Attorney

Sheriff

Police Chief

Members of Senate Finance and House Appropriations Committees

Members Senate and House Courts Committees

8

Four Inmate Population Forecasts Produced

State-responsible (SR) inmate population

• Population housed in DOC prison facilities

• State-responsible inmates housed in jails

Local-responsible (LR) prisoner population

• Prisoners confined in local and regional jails (excluding state and federal prisoners)

Juvenile correctional center (JCC) population

Juvenile detention home (JDH) population

9

Technical Advisory Committee

Two analysts from two different agencies work independently to develop competing forecast models.

• Confidence in the official forecast is bolstered if the different methods used by the two agencies converge on the same future population levels.

The Technical Committee scrutinizes each forecast according to the highest statistical standards.

The forecasts with the best set of statistical properties are recommended to the Liaison Work Group.

The Technical Committee also examines trends in reported crimes, arrests, court caseloads, etc., and provides this information to the Liaison Work Group and Policy Committee.

10

Technical-Policy Liaison Work Group

The Work Group reviews the projections proposed by the Technical Committee.

The Work Group can request additional data or analysis as needed.

The Work Group selects which forecasts the Policy Committee should consider.

11

Policy Advisory Committee

The Policy Committee reviews the projections and selects a forecast for each population.

This Committee also considers the effects of recent trend shifts and newly adopted legislation.

• The committee can approve adjustments to the forecast to account for the impact of such changes, as it deems appropriate.

Local-Responsible Population

13

Local Responsible Jail Population FY1999-FY2008

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

July1998

July1999

July2000

July2001

July2002

July2003

July2004

July2005

July2006

July2007

July2008

FY2008 Forecast

Source: Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services (August 20, 2008)Note: Data are based on the average population for each month reported.

Actual Local-Responsible Population

14

Local-Responsible Prisoner Population Growth

20,27820,622

13,264

19,233

17,89117,414

16,575

14,366

15,10115,769

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08

+8.3% +5.1% +4.4% +5.1% +5.1% +2.7% +7.5% +7.2% -1.7%

Note: Data are based on the average population for each fiscal year reported. FY2006 & FY2007 figures have been revised to reflect the most recent data available.Source: Virginia Department of Criminal Justice Services (August 20, 2008)

15

Felony Defendants in Circuit Court

50,50648,792

44,55243,52441,61941,958

40,621

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Source: Supreme Court of Virginia (July 15, 2008)

Following growth of 9.5% in 2006, the number of felony defendants grew by 3.5% in 2007.

16

Misdemeanor Cases Concluded in Virginia’s General District Courts

583,640610,109

650,283 652,455669,940

686,640

599,173

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Misdemeanor cases (including criminal traffic misdemeanors) concluded in general district court increased by 2.7% in 2006 and 2.5% in 2007.

Source: Supreme Court of Virginia (July 15, 2008)

17

Forensic Analysis Caseload and End-of-Year Backlog

Source: Department of Forensic Science Workload Summary (January 2001-May 2008)Note: FY2008 figure reflects May 2008 backlog.

5,9285,277 5,104

5,9506,0165,611 5,388

9,334

18,52018,524

11,510

7,234

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08*

Ave

rag

e N

um

ber

of

Cas

es

Average Cases Received MonthlyAverage Monthly Case Backlog

The growth and decline in the case backlog was due primarily to drug cases.

Between FY03 and FY06, the drug case backlog increased 371%, while the backlog for all other cases combined increased 30%.

Between FY06 and FY08, the drug case backlog decreased by 90%, while the backlog for all other cases combined decreased 30%.

10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Proposed Local-Responsible Population Forecasts

Historical

DCJS High

DCJS Low

DCJS Avg.DPB

10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Approved Local-Responsible Population Forecast

Year FY Average Change

2001 15,101 5.1%

2002 15,769 4.4%

2003 16,575 5.1%

2004 17,414 5.1%

2005 17,891 2.7%

2006 19,233 7.5%

2007 20,622 7.2%

2008 20,278 -1.7%

Avg. change 4.4%

Year FY Average Change

FY09 20,520 1.2%

FY10 21,077 2.7%

FY11 21,532 2.2%

FY12 22,025 2.3%

FY13 22,523 2.3%

FY14 23,007 2.1%

Avg. change 2.1%

Forecast:Actual:

Historical

Projected

20

Approved Local-Responsible Population Forecast

Year 2007 ForecastApproved

2008 Forecast Difference

FY2009 22,624 20,520 -2,104

FY2010 23,769 21,077 -2,692

FY2011 24,983 21,532 -3,451

FY2012 26,188 22,025 -4,163

FY2013 27,394 22,523 -4,871

FY2014 23,007

Note: Forecasted figures represent the average population for each fiscal year.

State-Responsible Population

22

FY2008 State-Responsible (SR) Forecast Accuracy

DOC PrisonState-

ResponsibleTotal State-Responsible

FY2008 Inmates Inmates in Jails Population Forecast Difference Percent

Jul-07 32,080 5,894 37,974 38,039 65 0.2%Aug-07 32,490 5,687 38,177 38,213 36 0.1%Sep-07 32,528 5,730 38,258 38,361 103 0.3%

Oct-07 32,612 5,817 38,429 38,506 77 0.2%Nov-07 32,690 5,768 38,458 38,597 139 0.4%Dec-07 32,931 5,596 38,527 38,593 66 0.2%

Jan-08 33,000 5,484 38,484 38,691 207 0.5%Feb-08 33,185 5,450 38,635 38,787 152 0.4%Mar-08 33,276 5,532 38,808 38,944 136 0.4%

Apr-08 33,230 5,593 38,823 39,068 245 0.6%May-08 33,157 5,702 38,859 39,177 318 0.8%Jun-08 33,357 5,469 38,826 39,347 521 1.3%

Average 172 0.5%

FY2008 Official Forecast

Source: Virginia Department of Corrections (July 31, 2008)Note: Population data reflect end-of-month figures.

23

08

Offenders in Jail Awaiting Trial* on Felony Charges

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

July 2005 July 2006 July 2007 July 2008

* Data include offenders awaiting trial and those who have been sentenced for an offense but have additional charges pending.

Source: Compensation Board (August 21, 2008)

December 2007

The number of defendants in jail awaiting trial on felony charges peaked in September 2006.

While there is typically a drop in November/December each year, this population declined through April 2008 before it rose again.

24Note: Data for 1990 are based on fiscal year; 2000 and 2007 data reflect calendar year. Data for 2007 are preliminary.

Average Length of Stay for State-Responsible Releases

Source: Virginia Department of Corrections (July 22, 2008)

4.2

5.6 5.9

1.7

32.6

1.3

2.62.3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1990 2000 2007

Yea

rs

DOC Violent Category DOC Non-Violent Category DOC Drug Category

Parole System No-Parole/Truth-in-Sentencing

Many offenders have received very lengthy sentences under the no-parole policy and remain incarcerated. These offenders are not included in the release data shown here.

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Impact of Truth-in-Sentencing on Prison Time Served

Parole System Truth-in-Sentencing

Robbery with Firearm Rape

Prison Time Served: Parole System v. Truth-in-Sentencing (in years)

2.7 3.8 4.17.2

12.616.3

5.6 6.7 6.78.9

24

34.2

No Violent Prior Record

Less Serious Violent

Prior Record

More Serious Violent

Prior Record

No Violent Prior Record

Less Serious Violent

Prior Record

More Serious Violent

Prior Record

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New Commitments to the Department of Corrections

Year

Probation Violators

Committed to DOC

Total New Commitments

Probation Violators as

Percent of New Commitments

FY2002 4,796 10,407 46.1%

FY2003 5,282 11,126 47.5%

FY2004 5,319 11,142 47.7%

FY2005 5,326 11,251 47.3%

FY2006 6,213 12,523 49.6%

FY2007 6,569 13,214 49.7%

Note: Forecasted figures represent the average population for each fiscal year.

Approved State-Responsible Forecast

30,000

34,000

38,000

42,000

46,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

2008 Forecast

Historical

Year

June 30 Population

Change

2009 39,431 1.6%

2010 40,481 2.7%

2011 41,453 2.4%

2012 42,447 2.4%

2013 43,424 2.3%

2014 44,422 2.3%

Avg. growth 2.3%

Forecast:

2007 Forecast

Year

June 30 Population

Change

2001 32,347 4.7%

2002 34,171 5.6%

2003 35,363 3.5%

2004 35,879 1.5%

2005 35,900 0.1%

2006 36,579 1.9%

2007 38,007 3.9%

2008 38,826 2.2%Avg.

growth 2.9%

Actual:

28

Approved State-Responsible Forecast

Year

2007 ForecastApproved

2008 Forecast Difference

2009 40,305 39,431 -874

2010 41,292 40,481 -811

2011 42,399 41,453 -946

2012 43,559 42,447 -1,112

2013 44,744 43,424 -1,320

2014 44,422

Note: Forecasted figures represent the population as of June 30 for each year.