of energy efficiency - odyssee-mure.eu · March 2015 – May 2018 14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional...

14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training, Lisboa 1

... of energy efficiency

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14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training, Lisboa

Energy savings Climate Change

Sustainability

EE policy

2


Climate Change

Sustainability

3

Energy savings

EE policy


Climate Change

Sustainability

Air pollu8on

health poverty

resources

economy labour market

energy system security

COM EED IA

June 2017 1

The macro-level and sectoral impacts of Energy Efficiency

policies

Final report

Energy savings


Energy savings Climate Change

Sustainability

Air pollu8on

health poverty

resources

economy labour market

energy system security

2017

2017

Forward-‐looking: 2030 Based on EEI ac8ons (boJom-‐up) EE beyond exis8ng policies

ex-‐post analysis top-‐down/boJom-‐up assessment of current policies

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 649724. This document reflects only the author's view. The Agency is not responsible for any information it contains.

Effects of energy efficiency More than energy and greenhouse gas savings

Johannes Thema

14 November 2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training Workshop, Lisbon

[Use your partner] [ logo here ]

www.combi-project.eu

Traditional cost-benefit analysis Example: CBA of total values

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

M€

yr

Investment

Energy cost savings

Traditional cost-benefit analysis Example: CBA of total values

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10

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

M€

yr

Investment

Energy cost savings

Cumulated energy cost savings

discoun8ng of life8me-‐savings

Total cost/benefit comparison

Cost-benefit analysis of Energy Efficiency


Source: Ecofys/WI 2014, Climateworks

Source: ACEEE 2014

Expanded Cost-benefit analysis CBA including Multiple Impacts of Energy Efficiency

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

M€

yr

Investment

Energy cost savings

Cumulated energy cost savings

Multiple Impacts

Cumulated MIs

discoun8ng

Total cost/benefit comparison

Cost-benefit analysis of Energy Efficiency

§ Inclusion of other („multiple“) impacts- à COMBI project


Source: Ecofys/WI 2014

Source: ACEEE 2014

Project background & objectives Quantification of multiple impacts of EE

Coordinator

- Funded by EU Horizon 2020 EE12 (GA 649724, approx 1M€)

§ March 2015 – May 2018


Air pollution health eco-system crops

Resources abiotic energy biotic energy abiotic non-energy biotic non-energy

Social welfare disposable income health productivity

Macro economy employment/ GDP public budget Fossil fuel/ETS prices Terms of Trade

Energy system energy system costs energy security

Methodology

Macro impacts IO/GE modelling (Copenhagen Economics) •  employment effects/GDP •  public budget •  Price effects: EU-ETS,

global fossil fuels •  TOT & structural change

Social welfare Socio-economic modelling (University of Manchester, ABUD) •  disposable income •  health

Pollution Socio-economic/ environm. models (GAINS) (University of Manchester) •  health •  eco-systems, crops

Resources MIPS (Material Input Per Service unit) (Wuppertal Institut) •  abiotic energy •  biotic energy •  abiotic non-energy •  biotic non-energy

Energy system & security LEAP tool (University of Antwerp) •  energy security

indicators •  avoided energy system

costs

PROJECT DATABASE: Costs, savings, potentials, impacts (physical, monetary) Consolidated project database by EEI action and EU country (University of Antwerp)

Online-tool: Customisable decision-support framework Customisable graphical data analysis tool with data export option (Wuppertal Institut/Web agency)

Costs, savings, potentials by 2030 Stock model: reference & EE scenario until 2030 (University of Antwerp) per action & country: •  technology costs •  energy savings •  potentials •  additional background data

Application: Interpretation of project results, implications Discussion of project results by country and benefit, policy recommendations (Wuppertal Institut)

Synthesis methodology for aggregation of benefits (ABUD)

Basis: •  21 technical EE improvement actions •  Geographic scope: EU28 (by countries) •  Sectors: industry, transport, buildings

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

2015 2030

TWh/a

PRIMES 2007 BAS

PRIMES 2016 BAS

EUCO27

EUCO30

EUCO+33

EUCO+35

EUCO+40

COMBI REF

COMBI EE

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

17000

2015 2030

TWh/a

PRIMES 2007 BAS

PRIMES 2016 BAS

EUCO27

EUCO30

EUCO+33

EUCO+35

EUCO+40

8000

9000

10000

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14000

15000

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17000

2015 2030

TWh/a

PRIMES 2007 BAS

PRIMES 2016 BAS

EUCO27

EUCO30

EUCO+33

EUCO+35

EUCO+40

COMBI REF

COMBI EE

Comparison of COMBI and EED IA (PRIMES 2016) scenarios Graphical analysis

more recent statistics COMBI: conservative (ambitious baseline)

excl. agric, industry raw ambition ≈EUCO+33

-27% à EUCO27

The goal: a more complete picture COMBI online tool


WP Benefit Category

# Impact end-point Units Physical primary unit

Physical (for aggregation)

Monetary (yes/no)

3" Air"pollution" 1" Human"health" YLL"(possibly"DALY?)" DALY?" yes"

" " 2" Eco>systems:"acidification" %"change"in"area"affected"by"excess"acidification" no"aggregation?,"final"EP?"

no"

" " 3" Eco>systems:"eutrophication" %"change"in"area"affected"by"eutrophication" no"aggregation?,"final"EP?"

no"

" " 4" Eco>systems:"ozone"exp." %"change"in"area"affected"by"ground>level"ozone"exposure" no"aggregation?,"final"EP?"

no"

" " 5" Eco>systems:"crop"loss" %"change"in"area"affected"by"crop"losses,"t"of"crop"loss" km2?" yes"

" " 6" Air"pollution:"emissions"(mid>points)" t" " no"

4" Resources" 7" Fossil"Fuels" tons" " yes(part"of"energy"costs)"

" " 8" Metal"Ores" tons" " yes"(part"of"energy"costs?)"

" " 9" Minerals" tons" " no"

" " 10" Abiotic"raw"materials"(sum"of"above)" tons" " no"

" " 11" Biotic"raw"materials" tons" " no"

" " 12" Material"Footprint"(sum"abiotic"&"biotic"&"unused)" tons" " no"

" " 13" Direct"carbon"emissions" tons"of"CO2"equivalents"(GWP"100a)" no"(yes:"ranges/IPCC)"

" " 14" Carbon"Footprint"(GWP,"lifecycle"emissions"incl."direct"emissions)"

tons"of"CO2"equivalents"(GWP"100a)" no"(yes:"ranges/IPCC)"

5" Social"welfare" 15" Excess"winter"mortality"attributable"to"inadequate"housing"

Number"of"deaths"avoided"due"to"improved"building"ventilation"(morbidity"expert"judgement)"

DALY?"together"with"below" yes"

" " 16" Excess"winter"morbidity"attributable"to"inadequate"housing"

YLL,"DALY?" DALY?"together"with"above" yes"

" " 17" Asthma"due"to"indoor"dampness" DALY,"YLL" DALY?" yes"

" " 18" Energy"cost"savings/available"income"effect"(WP2?)" €"(perspective!)" " yes"

" " 19" Productivity"impact"through"health"(asthma,"allergy,"cardiovascular"disease,"cold"and"flu)""

Number"of"days"suffered"due"to"these"diseases" active"days,"(DALY"for"health)"

yes"

" " 20" Active"time"loss" Labour"input"and"travel"time"saved"per"hour" active"days" yes"

" " 21" Workforce"productivity"" Labour"input"per"hour" active"days"(probably)" yes"

6" Macro>economy"

22" Temporary"(business>cycle)"employment/GDP"effects" Number"of"job"years" " yes"(GDP)"

" " 23" Temporary"(business>cycle)"public"budget"effects" %"of"budget"or"GDP" " yes"(public"budget)"

" " 24" Fossil"fuel"price"effects"" €/MWh,"%"change" " yes"(no"aggr.)"

" " 25" ETS"price"effect" €/tCO2" " yes"(no"aggr.)"

" " 26" Terms"of"Trade"effect" TOT"index"change" " yes"(no"aggr.)"

" " 27" Sectoral"shifts" %"change" " yes"(no"aggr.)"

7" Energy"system"&"security"

28" Energy"import"dependency" Monetary"share"spent"on"importing"energy" yes"(part"of"energy"costs)"

" " 29" Import"dependence"and"diversity"(incl."geopolitical"risks)" Herfindahl>Hirschman"index"HHI" no"

" " 30" Energy"intensity" ktoe/1000€" " no"

" " 31" Derated"capacity"margin" Share"(%)" " no"

20+ physical MI end-points (physical/monetary unit)

to 10+ impacts (phys./monetary)

€ monetization

λΣieΨαx

CBA selection (no double-counting)

pre-aggregation quantification

conversion to € (where possible)

aggregation Cost-benefit analysis

C-‐S-‐IM

(C-‐S-‐IM)/E

BCRs

CBA calculations (life-time, annualised, MACC)

All outputs accessible graphically via online tool • data export option• by EEI action (/sector)• by EU country• by impact type

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COMBI online tool (under development) Display of physical & monetary impacts

14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional Training, Lisboa 16 values not finalised, only graphical representa8on

COMBI online tool Cost-Benefit Analysis


COMBI online tool (PT case) Dynamic MAC curves excl./incl. multiple impacts


COMBI take-away Overview on Multiple Impacts of EE in Europe 2030

Analyse potentials of EE improvement (EEI) in Europe: Energy savings, GHG emissions and multiple impacts (MIs) §  Country comparisons §  Sector comparisons §  EEI action comparisons §  If monetized: size of impacts §  Net value of EEI actions with/without selected MIs -  also in ralation to savings potential (energy, GHG) à MACC -  Values: life-time, annualised, levelized -  Sensitivity analysis: energy prices, discount rates, impact selection

§  Check physical & monetized values and effect on Cost-Benefit Analysis §  Concise report on effects & policy conclusions


Thank you Johannes Thema [email protected] Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Research Group Energy, Climate and Transport Policy

FOLLOW US! Websites http://combi-project.eu www.wupperinst.org On Twitter @COMBI_project @wupperinst

: subscribe at http://combi-project.eu

Impacts quantified Pre-aggregated impacts

à total: 35+ impact end-points (annex)

COMBI energy efficiency improvement (EEI) List of 21 EEI actions

Buildings (residential & tertiary) Transport Industry

Difference to PRIMES/EED-IA: • not complete energy system (excl. agric., only selected EEI actions, excl. supply sector)• disaggregated stock analysis model à bottom-up funding of scenarios

Buildings (residential & tertiary) Transport Industry

Actions 1 (residential) and 5 (non-residential): refurbishment of building shell + replacement of building systems (space heating, cooling and ventilation)

Actions 2 (residential) and 6 (non-residential): energy efficiency improvements of new dwellings or buildings, focusing on Passive House standards;

Actions 3 (residential) and 7 (non-residential): energy efficiency improvements for lighting systems;

Actions 4 (residential) and 8 (non-residential): energy efficiency improvements of cold appliances (residential) or product cooling (non-residential).

Actions 9 and 12: modal shifts for both passenger and freight transport;

Action 10: energy efficiency improvements of motorized two-wheelers;

Action 11: energy efficiency improvements of passenger cars;

Action 13: energy efficiency improvements of public road transport, i.e. bus or coach;

Action 14: efficiency improvements of light duty trucks (LDTs);

Action 15: efficiency improvements of heavy duty trucks (HDTs).

Action 16: energy efficiency improvements of high temperature process heating (furnaces, ovens, kilns, dryers, …)

Action 17: energy efficiency improvements of low and medium temperature process heating (boilers and steam systems in general);

Action 18: energy efficiency improvements of industrial process cooling and refrigeration;

Action 19: energy efficiency improvements of process specific use of electricity, mainly electrochemical processes in non ferrous metals and chemicals;

Action 20: energy efficiency improvements of motor drive systems, including pumps, compressed air for utilities, compressed gas/air systems for processes; fans and blowers, and other motor applications;

Action 21: energy efficiency improvements of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in industrial buildings.


Air pollution, public health and social welfare co-benefits of energy efficiency investments

Nora Mzavanadze ODYSSEE-‐MURE Regional Training on Energy Efficiency November 14, 2017 Lisbon, Portugal

From doomsday and unbearable cost rhetoric to multi-solving rhetoric §  Documenting impact pathways of co-benefits or co-impacts -  A re-cycled name to a positive externality? -  Systems view

§  State of research - Transport - Housing

§  Human health co-benefits dominate social CBAs §  Towards re-assessment of drivers for energy efficiency

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Energy efficiency in (residential) buildings

Change in physical features of buildings

Change in energy demand

Change in psycho-social aspects of

housing

•  GHG emissions

•  Air pollution emissions

•  Indoor cold •  Indoor dampness •  Indoor air exchange •  Indoor air pollution •  Noise •  Toxic substances

•  Indoor comfort

•  Utility bills

Human health + ecosystems +built environment impacts

Impact pathways: determinants of health that are subject to change under residential housing retrofit (1)

- Indoor cold• Excess winter morbidity and mortality• Exposure: 9.4% of EU-28 population was unable to keep their homes

adequately warm; 9.1% had arrears on utility bills (EU SILC 2015)• Portugal – 23.8% (EU SILC 2015)

- Indoor dampness and mould growth• Asthma• Exposure: 15.2% of EU-28 population live in housing with a leaking roof,

damp walls, floors or foundation, or rot in window frames of floor (EU SILC2015)• Portugal – 28.1% (EU SILC 2015)

- Exposure to housing-related hazards (lead, asbestos, radon)• Cancer, cognitive impairment• Exposure: good coverage for radon, not for asbestos and lead

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Impact pathways: determinants of health that are subject to change under residential housing retrofit (2)

- Outdoor air pollution •  Cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, lung cancer •  Exposure: 82% of EUs urban population live in areas that exceed WHO

health norms for PM2.5; 53% for PM10 and 95% for O3 in 2015 (EEA “Air quality in Europe — 2017 report”)

-  Indoor air exchange and pollution (allergens, outdoor and indoor air pollutants, biological pathogens) •  Allergies, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases related to air pollution,

airborne contagious diseases •  Exposure: some data

- Noise exposure •  Cardiovascular diseases, cognitive impairment •  Exposure: 125 million people affected by noise levels greater than 55

decibels (dB) Lden (day-evening-night level) (EEA “Noise in Europe 2014” report)

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Methodological approach

Air pollution modeling: GAINS model by IIASA

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Social welfare and public health modeling: WHO Burden of Disease approach

First results: public health (1)

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EXCESS COLD WEATHER MORTALITY

Physical value (EU-28) Monetary value (EU-28)*

Baseline 71 351 excess cold weather deaths attributable to indoor cold in 2015

6.828 billion EUR

Reference scenario 22 054 avoided deaths in 2030 ~ 31%

1.975 billion EUR

Efficiency scenario 27 979 avoided deaths in 2030 ~39%

2.550 billion EUR

Difference 5 925 avoided deaths in 2030 0.575 billion EUR

*Monetary value of 1 avoided death = 1 VOLY customized for each country based on standard VSL value, economic adjustments and life expectancy. VSL (average EU-28, 2011) = 3.37 million EUR (Source: Mortality risk valuation in environment, health, and transport policies. Paris: OECD; 2012.)

Not finalized: do not cite!

06.07.2015 30 Not finalized: do not cite!

First results: public health (2)

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ASTHMA Physical value (EU-28), DALYs Monetary value (EU-28)*

Baseline 2015 71 652 8.751 billion EUR

Reference scenario 2030 20 288 avoided DALYs ~ 28%

2.352 billion EUR

Efficiency scenario 2030 24 833 avoided DALYs ~35%

2.919 billion EUR

Difference 4 545 avoided DALYs

0.567 billion EUR

*Monetary value of 1 avoided asthma DALY = 1 VOLY customized for each country based on standard VSL value, economic adjustments and life expectancy. VSL (average EU-28, 2011) = 3.37 million EUR (Source: Mortality risk valuation in environment, health, and transport policies. Paris: OECD; 2012.) Not finalized: do not cite!

06.07.2015 32 Not finalized: do not cite!

First results: air pollution co-benefits in Germany

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TOTAL EMISSIONS SO 2, kt NO x, kt PM 2.5, kt

PM 10, kt VOC, kt

Baseline 2015 371.3 1198.1 112.4 190.7 987.6

Reference scenario 2030

315.4 770.6 82.9 159.0 849.0

Efficiency scenario 2030

296.5 763.5 78.3 152.6 831.9

Difference 18.9 7.1 4.6 6.4 17.1



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AIR QUALITY Mean PM 2.5 concentration, ug/m3

SOMO35, ppb days

Baseline 2015 9.8 2 559

Reference scenario 2030 7.9 2 068

Efficiency scenario 2030 7.7 2 061

Difference 0.2

7



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HUMAN HEALTH

Premature deaths due to PM 2.5

exposure, deaths

Premature deaths due to O3 exposure,

deaths

Years of life lost (YOLL), mln

Baseline 2015 48 068 3 278 40.2

Reference scenario 2030

38 800 2 649 32.4

Efficiency scenario 2030

37 956 2 641 31.7

Difference 844 avoided deaths 8 avoided deaths 0.7


Thank you! Nora Mzavanadze Collaboratory for Urban Resilience and Energy (CURE) [email protected]

06.07.2015 36

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FOLLOW US! Websites hJp://combi-‐project.eu hJp://urban-‐energy.org/ On TwiJer @COMBI_project @UoMCURE

Subscribe to COMBI newsleJer at hJp://combi-‐project.eu

COMBI research project: Calculating and Operationalising the Multiple Benefits of Energy Efficiency in Europe

of energy efficiency - odyssee-mure.eu · March 2015 – May 2018 14.11.2017 ODYSSEE-MURE Regional...

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