Of Biofuels and Geopolitics BL

8/8/2019 Of Biofuels and Geopolitics BL

1/12

Of Biofuels and Geopolitics.Of Biofuels and Geopolitics.

Several Reasons for Both theSeveral Reasons for Both the American Energy and Foreign Policy American Energy and Foreign Policy to Go Greento Go Green

By Lucian Bogdan, Ph.D. CandidateBy Lucian Bogdan, Ph.D. Candidate(speech delivered by Marius Dobai)(speech delivered by Marius Dobai)


2/12

Global warming is literally reshaping environmentas we know it nowadays; overlooking it would beterribly unsoundFinally, the phenomenon of global warming gotboth scientific and political recognition: the

February, 2007 report of the United NationsIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: global warming does exist, manifesting itself as a

long-term phenomenon it is human-induced, meaning that human activity is

either determining global warming, or, at least, isresponsible for its acceleration


3/12

Main human-induced cause of global warming:the burning of fossil fuels: carbon accumulated

into sediments throughout eons is releasedback into the atmosphere, under the form of carbon dioxide, in a matter of just decadesCO

2is 1.5 times heavier than air, which makes

its dissipation from inhabited areas moredifficultWere carbon dioxide atmospheric concentrationto trip from 0.25% (as of nowadays) over thethreshold of 5%, this would lead to theextinction of all mammal life on Earth


4/12

Since the first modern recordings of meteorology (c.a.1880), the Earths average

temperature has risen by 0.8 degreescentigrade and this is not a +/-variation, but apermanent oneThe problem: not that human activity leads tothe emissions of carbon dioxide, but that it ispoured at a much faster rate than plants andoceans can absorb it

However, imposing restraints on developmentwould prove unpopular for economic andlifestyle reasons


5/12

A feasible solution: the large scale adoption of carbon-neutral fuels, meaning that nature can

absorb back (nearly) the same amount of carbon released in their economical usage Amongst these, biological ones (a.k.a.b iofuels ) stand as the most convenient,constituting a primary source of energyRelying to a high enough extent on biofuels, itwould be theoretically possible to haltgreenhouse gas emissions caused by theburning of oil and its derivatives


6/12

However, the issue does not have solely anenvironmental perspective, but also a politicaland strategic dimensionThe worlds largest oil consumer and netimporter is the U.S. Though producing 5.1million barrels a day, its needs reach 20 million

barrels a dayIts main suppliers are countries with a record of domestic instability and/or threatening regionalstability, as wellMost trading partners from the Middle East(capable of supplying large amounts of high-quality oil)


7/12

Some Middle Eastern nations, as Saudi Arabia,the worlds largest oil producer, and Kuwait,have been not only reliable trading partners, butalso traditional U.S. alliesProblems arise either from overtly anti-

American nations as Iran, or from others with

highly volatile domestic environments (Iraq).Though they may constitute trading partners,they are highly unreliable (vid. the 1979 globaloil crisis)

and such crises are highly likely to occur again in the near future, because of politicalinstability


8/12

Consequently, it would be profitable for the U.S.to reduce its dependency on oil not only for

cutting down greenhouse gas emissions, butalso to undermine the profiling of threats frombehalf of oil-rich hostile regimesWere more and more former oil consumers toshift towards alternative energies, oil-rich roguestates would find their power eroding itself until,eventually, they would be compelled to forsake

their mischievous undertakingsThus, both the environment and world peacewould highly benefit were the U.S. to succeed

in reducing their dependency from oil


9/12

Nowadays biofuels are used mainly asadditives to regular gasoline, but newtechnologies in the automotive industry will leadto a steep rise of biofuel usageCultivation of plants convertible into biofuels: aneconomic sector with a huge potential

For reviving decaying areas, as the Midwesternstates or those from the Great Plains For promoting special trade relations with countries

capable of high outputs, led by friendly regimes, as

a means of rewarding them for their conductThe main supplier of raw materials for the

American biofuels industry is Brazil: its high-quality sugarcane is an excellent raw materialfor obtaining ethanol


10/12

Brazil possesses vast tracts of humid, very fertiltillable land (ca. 22.3 million hectares); it also

has a large populace, eager to find employment,for relatively little pay in return, being thus anideal provider of biofuels for the U.S.The special relation between G.W. Bush andBrazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva known as ethanol diplomacySupporting the development of Brazil as aregional power: essential for countering the fastrise of socialist-led Venezuela


11/12

Advantages of large-scale adoption of biofuels: consumers could maintain their standards of living,

without ever facing the threat of the depletion of afinite resource as oil is the emission of greenhouse gases into the

atmosphere would be significantly reduced, which

would imply a slowdown of global warming depriving malevolent leaders of rouge states and/or

leftist ones of their main sources of income, peaceand stability would have greater prospects in themost tormented regions of the world

these anti-democratic regimes would eventuallydiscompose, their peoples having thus a greater chance of moving towards liberty and democracy


12/12

Apparently, oil-rich, but otherwise pro-Occidental Middle Eastern countries, would

have much to lose from the adoption of biofuelsbut even they would be at gain by beingspurred of developing their economies now,until they still have oil and alternative fuels arestill scarceIf provided with advanced technologies fromtheir Western allies, they could develop, for instance, a solar-panel infrastructure. This way,they would also have an edge on their rogueneighbors for the time oil finally runs out

so, basically, the world would be at a net gain

Of Biofuels and Geopolitics BL

Documents

Transcript of Of Biofuels and Geopolitics BL