OECDs forthcoming Economic Globalisation Publication 2008: – The trade chapter -

STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/SES/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/SES/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics

OECDs forthcoming OECDs forthcoming Economic Globalisation Economic Globalisation Publication 2008: Publication 2008: – The trade chapter - – The trade chapter -

EGI 2008 Contribution from STD’s Globalisation Unit, Trade

and Globalisation Section, SES/TAGS

Andreas Lindner, Head TAGS

AgendaAgendaItem 10bItem 10bAgendaAgendaItem 10bItem 10b

STD/SES/TAGS; 1STD/SES/TAGS; 1stst WPTGS Meeting 22.-24.09.2008, Paris WPTGS Meeting 22.-24.09.2008, Paris


The contextThe context

• As for EGI 2005, several OECD Directorates contribute to EGI 2008

• STI has overall coordination

• Most important: the selection of indicators

• All Directorates use the same template to standardise the lay-out of this publication as horizontal OECD product

• EGI 2008 to be published before end 2008

2


The team:The team:

STD:• Andreas Lindner (STD coordinator)• Eun-Pyo Hong• Florian Eberth• Bettina Wistrom• Patrizio SicariSTI:• Thomas Hatzichronoglou (EGI coordinator)• Agnès Cimper (Intra-Industry trade)

3


Trade is one chapter of Trade is one chapter of EGI 2008EGI 2008

Besides the other chapters on FDI, Multinationals, FATS etc.,

4

STD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation StatisticsSTD/PASS/TAGS – Trade and Globalisation Statistics

A standard approach and presentationA standard approach and presentation

• One page of analysis• .. With standadr lay-out containing sources used and links to

Websites in a shaded box at the bottom• An explanatory box for non-specialists, explaining

– What the indicator measures– The formular– Factors to be taken into account when interpreting results– General strenghts and limitations of the indicator shown

• A standardized graphical presentation – Covering OECD countries plus Accession countries and

Enhanced Engagement countries (30+5+5= up to 40 countries) wherever possible

– Easy to understand and interpret

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The list of trade indicators (red box)The list of trade indicators (red box)

• Trade as % of GDP• Trade Balance as % of GDP• World Export Market Shares• World Exp. Market Sh. by Type of Goods• Geographical Distribution of Export Shares in OECD,

Accession c. and Enhanced Engagement countries • Geographical Distribution of Export Shares in Services• Import Penetration of G & S• Merchandise Trade with China and Hong Kong,China• Merchandise Trade with the Rset of World• Intra-Industry Trade• High-Tech Merchandise Trade• Sensitivity of Trade flows to Price and Income Changes

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……They do tell a story…They do tell a story…

• Globalisation affected countries very differently

• Winners and loosers• But "grouping patterns" emerge• Heterogeneity of trends and impact on

countries• No “one fits all” strategy, rather tailored

analysis and approaches• Requiring cross-cutting approach for statistics

and indicators development

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OECD Accession Countries

OECD Enhanced

Engagement Countries

OECD Countries

1. Trade (Goods and Services) as % of GDP1. Trade (Goods and Services) as % of GDP

8

Central & East European countries become increasingly integrated into world economy


……and average growth 2000 - 2006and average growth 2000 - 2006

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2. OECD Trade Balances as % of GDP2. OECD Trade Balances as % of GDP

10

- 20 - 15 - 10 - 5 0 5 10 15 20 25%

2006 2000

30


3. World Export Market Shares (G&S) – average 3. World Export Market Shares (G&S) – average annual growth 2000-2006annual growth 2000-2006

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-10 -5 0 5 10 15

Slovak RepublicCzech Republic

PolandHungary

TurkeyLuxembourg

GermanyAustria

NorwayDenmark

SpainGreeceIcelandIreland

KoreaNetherlands

PortugalAustralia

FinlandBelgiumSweden

SwitzerlandItaly

New ZealandUnited Kingdom

FranceMexicoCanada

JapanUnited States

Russian FederationEstonia

ChileSlovenia

IsraelChinaIndia

BrazilSouth Africa

Indonesia

%


OECD EEP Countries

OECD Countries


5. Geographical Distribution of Export Shares5. Geographical Distribution of Export SharesFigure I.5.a.1 Export shares of Goods into EU25, 2006 versus 2000

Figure I.5.a.3 Export shares of Goods into Japan, 2006 versus 2000

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02468

101214161820

%2006 2000

OECD CountriesOECDAccessionCountries

OECDEnhancedEngagement Countries

0

1

2 %

Magnified

2006 2000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

%2006 2000

OECD CountriesOECDAccessionCountries

OECDEnhancedEngagement Countries

0

1%

Magnified

2006 2000


Geographical Distribution of Export Shares Geographical Distribution of Export Shares in Services 2005 versus 2000in Services 2005 versus 2000

EU 25 JapanEU 25 Japan

13

051015202530

AustraliaKoreaCzech RepublicHungaryCanadaPortugalDenmarkSwedenJapanNetherlandsItalySpainGermanyUnited KingdomUnited States

%

2005 2000

0102030405060

Slovak RepublicPortugalCzech RepublicGreeceFinlandAustriaSpainNorwayHungarySwedenIrelandItalyCanadaDenmarkNetherlandsAustraliaFranceGermanyKoreaUnited KingdomUnited States

%

2005 2000


6.1 Import Penetration of Goods and 6.1 Import Penetration of Goods and Services 2006 versus 2000Services 2006 versus 2000

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OECD Countries OECD Accession Countries

OECD Enhanced Engage-

ment Countries


7. OECD Merchandise Trade with China7. OECD Merchandise Trade with China

OECD trade with China and Hong Kong (China) – billion US$

Japanese trade with china and Hong Kong (China) – billion US$

15

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Balance

Imports

Exports

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Balance

Imports

Exports


8. OECD Merchandise Trade8. OECD Merchandise Trade with the Rest of the World with the Rest of the World

OECD trade with Row. – Billion US $

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Balance

Imports

Exports

US trade with Row. – Billion US $

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Balance

Imports

Exports

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9.2 Index of Intra-Industry Trade in 9.2 Index of Intra-Industry Trade in ManufacturesManufactures

Average annual change 2001-2006Average annual change 2001-2006

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-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0% 2.3

2.8 3.5

-5.9 -3.2 -3.2 -2.3

-2.3


10 Role of High-Tech Merchandise Trade10 Role of High-Tech Merchandise Trade% Shares in Total Trade 2000 and 2006% Shares in Total Trade 2000 and 2006

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United Kingdom

Switzerland

USA

Korea

Finland

Hungary

France

Ireland

Japan

Denmark

OECD

Germany

Netherlands

EU25

Mexico

Sweden

Iceland

Austria

Luxembourg

Canada

Czech Republic

Italy

Belgium

Greece

New Zealand

Spain

Portugal

Slovak Republic

Norway

Australia

Poland

Turkey

Slovenia

Israel

Estonia

Accession Countries

Chile

Russian Federation

China and Hong Kong SAR

EEP countries

Brazil

India

Indonesia

South Africa

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%

2006 2000

OECD Countries


OECDEnhanced

EngagementCountries


11. Sensitivity of Trade Flows to Price and 11. Sensitivity of Trade Flows to Price and Income ChangesIncome Changes

The global picture Focus on the 1st Quadrant

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AUS

FIN

ISL

IRL

LUXNOR

PRT

ESP

CHE

TUR

KOR

MEX

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

I II

IIIIV

AUT

BEL

CAN

DEUDNK

FRA

GRE

ITA

JPN

NLD

NZL

SWEUK

US

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Focus: First Quadrant


Thank you!Thank you!

[email protected]

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OECDs forthcoming Economic Globalisation Publication 2008: – The trade chapter -

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