OECD Employment Outlook 2019 - ISPI · 2019-10-01 · Should we brace for a jobless future? Massive...
11
ISPI 85 Dialoghi sul Futuro 20 settembre 2019 Stefano Scarpetta Director for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs OECD IL LAVORO
Transcript of OECD Employment Outlook 2019 - ISPI · 2019-10-01 · Should we brace for a jobless future? Massive...
ISPI 85Dialoghi sul Futuro20 settembre 2019
Stefano ScarpettaDirector for Employment, Labour and Social AffairsOECD
IL LAVORO
2
Three key megatrends are changing the labour market
Populations are ageing
The world has become more integrated
Technology is changing the workplace
2015
2050
4 of every 10 new jobs in
the OECD are in highly
digital-intensive sectors
42 % of OECD business
sector jobs sustained by
consumers in foreign
markets (47% for EU)
42%OECD
47%EU
Should we brace for a jobless future?
Massive technological unemployment is unlikely, but many jobs will change and
transitions will be difficult
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Manufact.
-26%
Services
+22%
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
United States
European Union
OECD
France
Italy
%Employment rates have risen in most countries
1990 2017
%
31%EU
Should we brace for a jobless future?
Orders of industrial robots have tripled over
the past decade
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
*
20
19
*
20
20
*
20
21
*
Worldwide annual supply of
industrial robots (000s)
14% of jobs could be automated
(17% for EU) …
32%OECD
4
… but many more will change
significantly
14%OECD
17%EU
The demand for skills is changing, but adult learning systems are ill-equipped for this challenge
The most vulnerable are least likely
to participate in adult learning
6 out of 10 adults lack basic ICT skills
or have no computer experience
The share of high-skilled
jobs has increased by 25%
over the last two decades
(27% for EU)
25%OECD
27%EU
Some social protection systems are not well prepared for the future of work
2 in 3 jobseekers
received no
unemployment
benefits in 2016
Average job tenure has
decreased by ~ 5% in OECD
countries and ~7.5% in the EU
since 2006
Workers in non-standard
employment are up to 40-50% less
likely to receive any form of income
support when out of work
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
France Germany EuropeanUnion
OECD Italy Canada UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
Despite growth in non-standard forms of employment, standard employment remains the norm
1 in 9 workers in OECD countries
Non-standard work represents over one-third
of total employment in both areas
And 1 in 7 workers in the European Union
are on a temporary contract
New forms of work have sometimes challenged definitions of “employee” and “self-employment”
16% of the self-employed
are financially dependent
on one client (15% for EU)
1 in 7 workers (in OECD countries
and the European Union)
are self-employed15%
EU
16%OECD
Many workers have weak bargaining power
Non-standard workers are
50% less likely to be unionised
than standard employees
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
European Union OECD Germany
France United Kingdom Italy
%
A transition agenda for a future that works for all
The future of work is not set in stone – with the right policies and
institutions, it can be more inclusive and rewarding
Action at the margin will
not do
Life course approach
Adequate funding
Effectiveness
Improve revenue sources
Whole-of-government
Target those who need it
most
Spending review
Thank you!
[email protected] Twitter: @stescarpetta
OECD Employment Outlook 2019: https://oe.cd/il/2zn
I’m the Future of Work campaign: https://futureofwork.oecd.org/
