ODIN Norge - ODIN fond
Transcript of ODIN Norge - ODIN fond
ODIN Norge Årskommentar 2014
Fondens portfölj
ODIN Norge – december 2014
Avkastning senaste månaden och hittills i år
• Fonden steg 1,7 procent under den senaste månaden. Fondens referensindex sjönk under samma
tidsperiod 1,4 procent.
• Fondens avkastning hittills i år är 4,6 procent. Referensindex avkastning hittills i år är -1,8 procent.
Köp och försäljning i fonden, senaste månaden och hittills i år
• Denna månad har vi köpt aktier i Prosafe och sålt alla våra aktier i Norsk Hydro, Farstad Shipping och
Photocure.
• I år är de största förändringarna i portföljen köp av Borregaard, DnB, Norwegian Air och Opera Software
och vi har sålt Ganger Rolv, Hafslund B, Nordic Semiconductor, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Statoil, Aker
Solution, Norsk Hyrdom, Austevoll Seafood och Farstad Shipping.
Bidragsgivare, senaste månaden och hittills i år
• De bästa bidragsgivarna till denna månads avkastning var PGS, Yara, Borregaard, Tomra och Subsea 7.
• De bolag som bidrog minst till avkastningen denna månad var DNB, Kongsberg Gruppen, Farstad, Q-Free
och SR-Bank.
• I år har bolagen Statoil, Yara, SalMar, Schibsted och Marine Harvest bidragit mest.
• De svagaste bidragen till avkastningen i portföljen i år är PGS, Subsea 7, Farstad, EMGS och Det norske
oljeselskap.
ODIN Norge – december 2014
Prissättning av fonden
• Fonden prissätts till 11,1 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat.
• Fonden ger en direktavkastning på 4,2 procent. Utöver detta tillkommer även återköp av aktier i bolagen.
• Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts fonden till 1,4 gånger .
• Innehaven i fonden har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 11,4 procent.
Prissättning av den globala aktiemarknaden - MSCI Global
• MSCI Global prissätts till 11,2 gånger de kommande 12 månadernas resultat.
• MSCI Global ger en direktavkastning på 4 procent.
• Mätt mot bokfört egenkapital prissätts MSCI Global till 1,4.
• Bolagen i MSCI Global har en genomsnittlig egenkapitalavkastning på 11 procent.
5
2014 – året då ODIN Norge slog tillbaka ODIN Norge skapade god avkastning under 2014 för sina
andelsägare, både absolut och jämfört med marknaden.
Fonden hade en avkastning på cirka 11 %, vilket är 7 %
bättre än marknaden. Fonden har haft problem med
mindreavkastning i förhållande till marknaden under de
senaste åren och det har gjorts stora ändringar i fonden för
att vända den trenden. Det är därför tillfredsställande att se
resultaten av dessa förändringar.
Det finns flera orsaker till att det gick bättre för fonden än för
marknaden. Fonden hade ett stort innehav i Statoil under
den första hälften av året, men sålde under sommaren detta
och undkom därmed den kraftigt fallande aktiekursen under
den senare delen av året. Fonden har dessutom haft
begränsad exponering mot oljeservice och har bland annat
inte ägt några aktier i Seadrill, Prosafe och Fred Olsen
Energy.
Goda nyheter och uppjustering av priset för flera av våra
teknikinvesteringar har också bidragit positivt (det gäller
bland andra Vizrt och Schibsted). Nya investeringar i
fonden, till exempel Norwegian, Borregaard, DNB och
Opera Software har också bidragit positivt till fondens
avkastning. Källa: ODIN
-6,0%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
jan.14
feb.14
mar.14
apr.14
mai.14
jun.14
jul.14
aug.14
sep.14
okt.14
nov.14
des.14
jan.15
Re
lati
v av
kast
nin
g jä
mfö
rt m
ed
O
SEFX
20
14
ODIN Norge, mer-/mindreavkastning
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
STATOIL YARA SALMAR SCHIBSTED MARINEHARVEST
BORREGAARD NORSK HYDRO NORWEGIAN AIR
ODIN Norge: Bidrag till avkastningen 2014
ODIN Norge Förvaltarens årskommentar 2014
6
ODIN Norge
Oslobörsen präglad av lägre oljepris Oljeprisfallet har präglat Oslobörsen på senare tid.
Oljepriset minskade med hela 53 USD under 2014,
vilket är det största årliga prisfallet i historien (oljepriset
minskade med 48 USD under 2008).
Möjliga förklaringar till oljeprisfallet är svag efterfrågan,
ökad skifferproduktion i USA, ökad produktion i Libyen
och Irak och OPEC som beslöt att behålla kvoterna
oförändrade.
Prisfallet påverkar i synnerhet två sektorer på
Oslobörsen, olje- och oljeservicebolagen. Dessa två
sektorer utgör dock endast 24 % av fondindex.
Dessutom oroar sig marknaden för att bankerna
kommer att få ökade förluster till följd av lägre intjäning
hos sina lånekunder.
En del av bolagen på Oslobörsen kommer att gynnas av
det lägre oljepriset, eftersom olja är en del av kostnaden
för att driva verksamheten. Flygbolag, kryssningsfartyg
och shipping kommer att göra bättre resultat med lägre
oljepris, oavsett vad som händer. Detsamma gäller även
bolag som förbrukar stora mängder energi.
Även om oljepriset är viktigt för den norska börsen är
betydelsen faktiskt mindre än vad många tror.
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
pe
r fa
t
Oljepris, Brent
Finans
15 %
Bygg
4 %
Råmateriale
15 %
Varig konsumgoder
12 %
Fiskeoppdrett
7 %
Industri
7 %
Olje
11 %
Oljeservice
13 %
Shipping
3 %
Helse
0 %
IT
4 %
Telekom
9 %
Oslobörsen, fondindex
Källa: Bloomberg, ODIN
7
ODIN Norge
Norskt oljeserviceindex ned 41 % Redan innan oljepriset började falla kraftigt hade
oljebolagen som mål att förbättra sitt kassaflöde så att
ägarna skulle kunna få ut mer i utdelning. Oljebolagen
hade under de sista åren fått svagare avkastning på
investerat kapital, trots kraftiga ökningar av oljepriset.
En ökning av det fria kassaflödet skulle uppnås genom
att minska investeringarna, så att det skulle gå att
finansiera utdelning utan att öka bolagens
skuldbeläggning.
Minskade investeringar från oljebolagen innebär lägre
efterfrågan på oljeservicetjänster. Efter det kraftiga
oljeprisfallet i kombination med denna trend räds
marknaden nu att oljebolagens investeringsbudgetar
kommer att reduceras med 15 % för 2015, kanske ännu
mer.
Inom enskilda oljeservicesegment har goda tider
medfört hög kontraheringsaktivitet. Tillgångstillväxten på
riggmarknaden, subsea-konstruktionsfartyg, supply-
fartyg och hotellriggar kommer att vara hög framöver
och marginalerna förväntas hamna under press. Med ett
kursfall på 41 % är det möjligt att mycket av detta
marginalfall redan har räknats in i prissättningen.
8
Valuta Lägre oljepris har medfört att den norska kronan
försvagats kraftigt. Mot den amerikanska dollarn har
kronan försvagats med 24 % under 2014. Mot euron är
försvagningen något mindre, endast 8 %.
Norska bolag som har sina intäkter i utländsk valuta och
sina kostnader i norska kronor får bättre resultat med en
svagare krona. Norsk Hydro, Yara, Borregaard, Telenor,
odlingsbolagen och norsk oljeservice kommer alla att
tjäna på en svagare krona.
Bolag som importerar varor från utlandet och säljer dem
i Norge kommer i stället få svagare marginaler på grund
av kronans försvagning, till exempel Orkla och XXL.
Norwegian har beställt över 200 nya flygplan och
samtliga flygplan har beställts i amerikanska dollar.
Beställningen är så stor att det inte är möjligt att
valutasäkra den. En försvagning av den norska kronan
gör därmed beställningen betydligt dyrare. Det svaga
oljepriset bidrar positivt för Norwegian och är viktigare
för bolaget än försvagningen av den norska kronan.
ODIN Norge
9
Stora förändringar i portföljen De största köpen under 2014 var Borregaard, Opera
Software, Norwegian, Marine Harvest, Telenor, PGS och
DnB. Många av dessa nya investeringar har bidragit
positivt till fondens avkastning under 2014.
De största försäljningarna var Statoil, Norsk Hydro,
RCL, Aker Solutions och Nordic Semiconductor. Dessa
försäljningar gjordes eftersom marknadens prissättning
var högre än våra interna värdebedömningar.
Dessutom har vi sålt oss ut ur Ganger Rolv, Hafslund,
Farstad Shipping och Austevoll Seafood. Vår
investeringsfilosofi bygger på att vi är aktiva ägare. I en
del av de här bolagen har de största aktieägarna visat
bristande vilja till att lyssna på andra aktieägare och då
har vi valt att dra oss ur helt.
Antalet positioner har minskat från 33 till 30 under året.
Vi har minskat den andel av portföljen som är investerad
i mindre bolag från 49 % till 40 % och ökat andelen
mellanstora bolag.
ODIN Norge
10
ODIN Norge
2015 – Vad händer nu? Den norska aktiemarknaden är lågt prissatt i förhållande
till bokförda värden och högt i förhållande till den
förväntade intjäningen. Det kraftiga oljeprisfallet har
skapat stor oro på marknaden.
För de flesta andra aktiemarknader är ett lägre oljepris
gynnsamt och enligt IMF kommer ett fall i oljepriset på
10 USD att öka den globala BNP-tillväxten med 0,2 %.
Aktier är fortfarande mer attraktivt prissatta än andra
tillgångsslag. Vad som händer med den norska
aktiemarknaden är osäkert, men vi tror dock att
oljeprisfallet redan är mer eller mindre inräknat och
reflekteras i dagens prissättning. En försvagad krona är
positivt för norsk exportverksamhet.
Förutom utvecklingen av oljepriset kommer den norska
marknaden att vara beroende av global ekonomisk
tillväxt. Förutsatt att Norge fortsätter att exponeras mot
råmaterialmarknader så kommer utvecklingen på
tillväxtmarknaderna och i synnerhet i Kina att vara viktig.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800OSEBX och P/B-tal
OSEBX Price book=1.5 Price book=2.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800OSEBX och P/E-tal
OSEBX P/E = 15x P/E = 8x
11
ODIN Norge
2015 – sektorexponering På grund av det kraftiga fallet i oljeserviceaktier under 2014
har ODIN Norge köpt in sig i PGS och Subsea 7.
Försäljningen av Statoil har gjort att fondens oljeexponering
är liten jämfört med marknaden. Fondens exponering mot
olje- och oljeservicebolag utgör i dag cirka 16 % av
portföljen.
Fonden har nästan 8 % av sina medel investerade i IT, men
efter en förväntad försäljning av Vizrt kommer denna
exponering minska till under 5 %.
Fondens största sektorexponering är finans med
investeringar i DNB, SpareBank 1 Midt-Norge, SR-Bank och
Gjensidige Forsikring. Finans är fortsatt lågt prissatt med
god avkastning på egenkapitalet och förväntningar om ökad
utdelning.
Vår exponering mot fisk har ökat under 2014 genom
ytterligare köp i Marine Harvest. Goda utsikter, låg
tillgångstillväxt och låg prissättning gör att vi är fortsatt
positiva till denna sektor.
Genom försäljningen av Norsk Hydro och Royal Caribbean
Cruises har fonden reducerat exponeringen mot råmaterial
och varaktiga konsumtionsvaror.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%ODIN Norge: sektorexponering
OSEFX % ODIN Norge %
0,8 % 0,7 %
-1,5 % -2,7 %
1,5 % 0,2 %
-8,3 %
0,1 %
-0,1 % -0,4 %
3,2 %
0,0 %
6,5 %
-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%
10%
ODIN Norge: Sektorexponering jämfört med index
12
ODIN Norge
Aktivt ägarskap Fonden består av endast 30 investeringar. Därför har vi all
anledning att ägna ordentligt med tid åt att analysera och följa
upp varje enskilt bolag.
Vi har haft regelbunden kontakt med ledningen i våra
portföljbolag under året som gått. I enlighet med våra principer
har vi röstat vid alla årsstämmor och deltar i flera
valkommittéer. Vi diskuterar alltid ansvarstagande när vi
samtalar med bolagen och i dag känner vi oss trygga med att
vi har en portfölj med kvalitetsbolag. Enligt vår rådgivare som
analyserar bolag ur hållbarhetsperspektiv, Sustainalytics, är
det ingen av fondens investeringar som räknas till
kategorierna ”underperformers” eller ”industry laggards”. Det
innebär att våra bolag ligger bra till inom de branscher de
representerar vad gäller kvalitet och hållbarhet.
Trots detta är det en del bolag i portföljen som har omtalats
negativt i media i samband med anklagelser om
konkurrensförhållanden och korruption. När sådant inträffar
intensifierar vi dialogen med de aktuella bolagen och försöker
att säkerställa att ledning och styrelse hanterar situationen på
ett ansvarsfullt sätt. Under 2014 gällde detta bolagen Yara,
Telenor, Kongsberg Gruppen och Wilh Wilhelmsen.
19,5 %
8,9 %
71,7 %
0,0 % 0,0 %
Industry Leader Outperformer AveragePerformer
Underperformer Industry Laggard
ESG-bedömning av ODIN Norge (Källa: Sustainalytics)
Nyckeltal och nyheter
från portföljen
– allt presenteras på engelska
ODIN Norge Index
Portfolio Return Last 5 years % (EUR)
Historical Return % (EUR)*
Portfolio
Benchmark
Exess Return
Last Month YTD
1,66
-1,44
4,58
-1,83
6,41 3,10
3 Y
6,59
1 Y
4,58
5 Y
2,53
10 Y
5,12
Since
inception
14,65
10,57
4,08
-1,83 10,91 7,53 7,82
6,41 -4,32 -5,01 -2,70
* Returns for periods exceeding 12 months are annualized
Annual returns last 10 years
Sector allocation
16,5
13,2 13,4
7,3 8,2
0,0
18,0
7,5 9,0
0,0
24,4
13,7
7,3
10,8 11,2
0,4
17,4
5,5
9,1
0,2 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
ODIN Norge Benchmark
16
Sector contribution, year to date
17
Current holdings
18
Contribution, year to date
19
Portfolio Index
-0,68
0,76
5,48
-0,83
Alpha
Beta
Tracking Error
Information Ratio
1,06 Sharpe Ratio 1) 1,31
10,05 Standard Deviation 2)
1) Sharpe Ratio uses Norway - 3 MT Bills as risk free rate.
2) Standard Deviation is based upon monthly volatility.
11,59
Risk Statistics (NOK) 3 Years
20
ODIN Norge Significant Portfolio changes year to date
21
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
+ - + - + - + -
In o
r o
ut
Borregaard
DNB
Opera
Nordic
Semiconductor
Norwegian Ganger Rolv
Hafslund B
RCCL
Statoil
Aker Solution
Austevoll Seafood
Farstad
Norsk Hydro
Up
or
do
wn
BW Offshore
Marine Harvest
Telenor
PGS SR-Bank Subsea 7
0
3
1 0 0
-1
-4 -4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Number of changes in portfolio year to date
BuySell
Pricing of the fund
Company Weight Country Industry P/E (LTM)* P/E (NTM)* DivYield (LTM) DivYield (NTM) P/B ROE
Telenor ASA 9,0% Norway Diversified Telecommunication 18,8 14,6 5,2 5,6 3,0 16,0
Yara International ASA 8,7% Norway Chemicals 11,6 12,1 3,3 3,3 1,6 13,3
DNB ASA 7,2% Norway Banks 8,8 8,8 3,3 4,5 1,1 12,9
Petroleum Geo-Services ASA 5,0% Norway Energy Equipment & Services 12,2 16,6 5,7 3,4 0,6 4,9
Borregaard ASA 4,6% Norway Chemicals 16,2 14,7 2,2 2,3 2,6 16,4
SpareBank 1 SMN 4,6% Norway Banks 7,3 7,6 3,9 3,8 0,9 12,8
Schibsted ASA 4,5% Norway Media -3 590,0 64,4 0,7 0,8 7,8 -0,2
SalMar ASA 4,3% Norway Food Products 10,8 9,1 4,7 5,9 2,8 26,2
TOMRA Systems ASA 4,2% Norway Commercial Services & Supplies 21,4 16,0 2,6 3,1 2,9 13,5
Subsea 7 S.A. 4,1% Norway Energy Equipment & Services 4,9 7,0 5,9 5,9 0,5 10,0
Topp 10 56,2% 11,7 11,8 3,8 4,0 1,3 11,5
ODIN Norge 12,0 11,1 4,1 4,2 1,4 11,4
* NTM = Next 12 months
LTM = Last 12 months
Adjusted earnings and fully diltuted number of shares
22
MSCI World Price, Earnings and P/E
23
MSCI World Price, Book Value and P/B
24
OECD Leading indicator Level above 100 indicates expanding activity in OECD area
25
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Economic growth forecast 2014 - updated October
26
Investments
- ODIN Norge
28
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Akastor ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund TR
Market Value (mill.) 5,288 Price 19.30 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 8,261 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 13,549 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 54,077 46,267 35,667 44,413 42,804 20,997 18,182
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 3,870 2,886 1,762 3,064 2,295 -568 465
Net Income (mill.) 2,260 1,605 1,555 2,249 997 2,024 174
Price/Earnings 13.4 14.8 9.6 12.7 22.7 424.9 29.6
Price/Book Value 2.3 2.8 1.6 2.7 2.4 0.6 0.5
EV/EBIT 6.3 11.0 12.1 12.0 16.5 - 19.1
Return on Equity (%) 25.9 16.8 14.6 19.6 7.9 0.1 1.8
Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 2.7 5.7 3.5 3.8 8.9 10.4
Akastor ASA Oilfield Services/Equipment
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Akastor is a spin-off from Aker Solution. The idea
was to establish a separate company for all non-
core holdings of Aker Solution. Akastor is now an
oil-services investment company with a portfolio
of industrial holdings, real estate and other
investments. The company has a flexible
mandate for active ownership and long-term value
creation. Its mandate allows it to both buy and
sell, but we expect the company to
opportunistically maximise shareholder value
mainly through divestments.
Decline in capital spending and a high focus on
cutting costs among the oil and gas companies is
likely to have a negative impact on Akastor in the
short term.
Akastor’s portfolio holds a range of opportunities
for organic growth, but M&A appears to be an
inevitable tool to unlock value. The Aker group’s
proven deal-making track record and the new set-
up will allow for swift decision making and
flexibility.
Akastor
29
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Atea ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 7,891 Price 75.75 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 419 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 8,310 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 14,589 17,131 20,228 20,930 22,096 24,287 25,313
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 366 474 651 559 453 604 756
Net Income (mill.) 382 497 593 506 339 480 644
Price/Earnings 13.0 13.1 10.0 11.0 14.2 14.9 11.8
Price/Book Value 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.3
EV/EBIT 13.7 12.3 8.9 10.8 14.5 13.7 11.2
Return on Equity (%) 13.5 16.1 16.4 13.1 9.2 15.2 19.4
Dividend Yield (%) 2.4 3.1 7.1 9.0 9.8 8.3 8.6
Atea ASA Information Technology Services
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Atea is the leading IT infrastructure reseller in the
Nordics, with a turnover that is larger than the
aggregate of the next 10 companies.
Size is important in this industry for several
reasons: 1) The geographical reach is higher, 2)
The range of products to be offered is larger
(customers appreciate the on-stop-show concept)
3) Discounts from subcontractors are larger, 4)
The company can offer a pan-Nordic service
offering, 5) It is easier to grow through bolt-on
acquisitions at low prices.
Atea is rather resilliant to changes in economic
cycles, as the products are bread-and-butter for
customers, a model which proved to be strong
during the financial crisis. We believe Atea should
grow slightly higher than GDP.
Pricing of the company is moderate, but the
resilliant business combined with low interest
rates make the investment attractive in our view.
Atea
30
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Borregaard ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 5,675 Price 56.75 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 722 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 6,397 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 3,338 3,419 3,810 3,894 3,941 3,965 4,109
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 203 241 486 491 443 513 551
Net Income (mill.) 139 180 317 273 335 343 378
Price/Earnings - - - 6.9 9.6 16.5 15.0
Price/Book Value - - - 1.2 1.7 2.7 2.4
EV/EBIT - - - 6.0 8.5 12.2 11.2
Return on Equity (%) - 15.4 30.1 19.3 18.8 16.4 16.0
Dividend Yield (%) - - - 3.6 3.6 2.1 2.3
Borregaard ASA Chemicals: Specialty
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Borregaard has one of the world's most advanced
and sustainable biorefineries. By using natural,
sustainable raw materials, Borregaard produces
advanced and environmental friendly
biochemicals, biomaterials and bioethanol that
can replace oil-based products. Borregaard also
holds strong positions within ingredients and fine
chemicals. The company produces a wide range
of products, including ingredients for cement,
ceramics and agricultural products.
The company has a leading position in the lignin
market. With limited supply growth and stong
demand going forward, Borregaard is expected to
experience increase in earnings.
Despite strong market position and healthy
outlook, pricing of the company is considered to
be attractive. A weaker NOK improves the results
for Borregaard.
Borregaard
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
BW Offshore Limited Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 4,954 Price 7.20 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 9,791 USD
Enterprise Value (mill.) 14,745 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 409 549 846 909 982 1,027 887
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 45 81 122 21 186 300 191
Net Income (mill.) -9 -100 -115 - 84 197 96
Price/Earnings - 51.7 42.6 - 5.1 3.6 6.8
Price/Book Value 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5
EV/EBIT 34.5 34.6 24.5 104.8 13.5 7.7 12.7
Return on Equity (%) -0.9 -9.0 -8.6 0.0 7.5 15.2 7.7
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 4.5 10.1 6.4 12.5 12.7
BW Offshore Limited Oilfield Services/Equipment
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
BW Offshore
BW Offshore owns and operates a fleet of
floating production vessels (FPSO) globally. Major
part of BW Offshore’s operation is in West Africa
and Latin America (Brazil and Mexico).
The market for FPSOs has been challenging with
low returns due to poor management of large and
complex projects. Several competitors have gone
out of business the last years and the market has
become consolidated.
BW Offshore’s existing fleet is generating a high
and predicitable cash flow from term-contracts. In
addition, BW Offshore has visible growth from a
new project, which is based on a newbuild vessel.
This project is taken on after an extensive feed
study paid by the client. This reduces the project
risk compared to earlier projects where old crude
tankers have been converted.
Dividends are paid on a quaterly basis and the
stock is trading on a high running dividend yield.
31
32
0
50
100
150
200
250
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
DNB ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 171,513 Price 105.30 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 804,879 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 976,392 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 93,105 93,376 90,515 98,989 98,124 49,739 50,378
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 28,946 29,374
Net Income (mill.) 8,505 14,739 12,984 13,561 17,522 20,832 20,353
Price/Earnings 10.0 11.8 6.7 8.2 11.3 8.4 8.4
Price/Book Value 1.1 1.6 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.0
EV/EBIT - - - - - - -
Return on Equity (%) 9.7 14.0 11.3 11.0 13.0 12.9 11.8
Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 4.2 4.3 2.9 2.4 3.5 4.7
DNB ASA Financial Conglomerates
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
DnB
DNB is Norway's largest financial services group
and one of the largest in the Nordic region. The
company offers a full range of financial services,
including loans, savings, advisory services,
insurance and pension products for retail and
corporate customers.
Net interest margin has increased the last few
years, and together with the bank’s strong
investment bank division (DnB Markets), earnings
have increased substantially.
Although the bank navigated well through the
financial crisis, investors are concerned about
Norwegian economy given the deteriorated
outlook for the oil- and gas sector. We believe the
bank will manage to avoid large loan losses going
forward and find the valuation attractive.
33
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Det Norske Oljeselskap ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 7,744 Price 38.22 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 3,255 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 10,999 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 255 362 362 325 933 3,487 12,287
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) -1,232 -1,813 -1,005 -1,693 -1,572 1,053 6,164
Net Income (mill.) -521 -690 -459 -957 -549 402 1,415
Price/Earnings - - - - - 13.8 5.5
Price/Book Value 1.0 0.9 3.3 3.8 2.7 1.2 1.0
EV/EBIT - - - - - 19.7 3.1
Return on Equity (%) -22.3 -19.7 -13.4 -25.8 -15.8 8.5 18.0
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Det Norske Oljeselskap ASA Oil & Gas Production
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Det Norske Oljeselskap
Det norske oljeselskap is an E&P company with
exploration, development and production activities
on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.
Det norske oljeselskap acquired Marathon
Norway in mid 2014 to become a fully-fledged
E&P company. However, after this acquisition, det
norske became highly sensitive to changes in the
oil price, with a USD10/bbl change in the oil price
curve moving the net asset value estimate by
more than NOK 20 per share. The market is
nervous for the company’s funding situation with
the recent fall in oil prices. The main risks remain
continued declining oil prices and impairments
related to the Marathon acquisition.
However, underlying values are attractive, and
with an increasing oil price curve and large
discount to net asset value, we see strong upside
at current levels.
Ekornes is a global and leading furniture
producer. The company’s main products are
chairs, sofas and mattresses.
The majority of Ekornes’ production is located in
Norway. Although Norway is seen as a high-cost
country, a lot of the production is automized.
Ekornes has struggled to grow the last ten years.
Both the financial crises and the lack of exposure
to growing regions, such as Asia, have
contributed negatively. In addition, higher raw
material cost and more intense competitive
environment have affected margins negatively.
Despite this, we believe the future is somewhat
brighter, something the last few quarters have
shown, driven by improved markets, optimized
operations and product development. Pricing is
moderate and we appreciate the strong market
posision and the solid balance sheet.
34
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Ekornes ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 3,462 Price 94.00 NOK
Net debt (mill.) -345 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 3,117 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 2,585 2,869 2,758 2,712 2,561 2,735 3,029
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 529 534 387 349 263 316 443
Net Income (mill.) 325 381 274 335 48 221 302
Price/Earnings 13.5 14.4 12.1 13.1 17.7 15.3 11.5
Price/Book Value 3.1 3.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.0
EV/EBIT 7.4 9.8 8.2 8.2 10.2 11.1 7.7
Return on Equity (%) 24.3 23.0 16.1 19.9 3.0 14.3 17.8
Dividend Yield (%) 5.1 5.3 8.0 6.5 6.7 5.5 6.9
Ekornes ASA Home Furnishings
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Ekornes
EMGS is a leading global provider of
electromagnetic seismic data (EM). The company
has conducted impressive surveys in the Mexico
Gulf and in the Barents Sea. EM is used by the oil
industry as a supplement to ordinary seismic in
search for hydrocarbons.
EMGS is operating a fleet of four vessels. The
challenge has been to acheive full utilisation on a
continued basis. The willingnes to use the EM
technology among oil companies is increasing,
but more slowly than expected.
EMGS is a small company with a limited sales
force. Agreements and joint venture projects with
seismic companies like TGS, Spectrum and
Western Geco, where seismic data is being
bundled with EM data are expected to contribute
to increased sales and broader technology
adoption.
The company has a strong balance sheet and is
generating a positive cash flow. It can be viewed
as an option on increased adoption of EM and as
an aquisition candidate for larger seismic players.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
ElectroMagnetic GeoServices ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
EMGS
Market Value (mill.) 845 Price 4.23 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 1 USD
Enterprise Value (mill.) 846 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 59 75 172 201 145 192 199
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) -63 -25 25 29 -12 19 16
Net Income (mill.) -81 -55 10 12 -15 11 8
Price/Earnings - - - 16.1 - 12.5 18.5
Price/Book Value 2.5 10.5 5.6 4.1 2.6 1.0 1.1
EV/EBIT - - 16.2 15.3 - 6.6 7.7
Return on Equity (%) -142.0 -428.6 20.5 12.0 -14.4 7.8 5.9
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ElectroMagnetic GeoServices ASA Oilfield Services/Equipment
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
35
Gjensidige is a leading Nordic general insurance
company. The company operates in several
verticals, including car insurance.
Combined ratio has the last couple of years been
low, driven by lower costs and diciplined market
participants. Claims have also been low.
We like the steady nature of general insurance
companies, and find the quality of Gjensidige’s
operations to be solid.
Gjensidige has recently paid a high ordinary
dividend. In addition, it has distributed large
extraordinary dividends, partly as a result of the
company divesting its shares in Storebrand, partly
due to increased financial leverage.
The company has a strong market position and is
generating high returns.
36
0
50
100
150
200
250
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 62,200 Price 124.40 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 7,301 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 69,501 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 18,578 20,796 21,472 22,442 22,234 20,322 21,204
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 5,319 5,007
Net Income (mill.) 2,305 2,950 2,748 4,280 3,671 4,037 3,695
Price/Earnings - 13.2 10.4 10.2 16.3 15.4 16.3
Price/Book Value - 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.3 2.9 2.9
EV/EBIT - - - - - 11.9 12.7
Return on Equity (%) 11.0 13.1 11.9 17.5 14.1 18.7 17.7
Dividend Yield (%) - 6.0 6.6 7.9 9.8 8.0 5.5
Gjensidige Forsikring ASA Property/Casualty Insurance
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Gjensidige
Kongsberg Gruppen is a global company
operating within the oil&gas,- maritime, - and
defence sectors worldwide. The company
supplies high-technology systems and solutions.
The company is well-known for its strong R&D
capabilities and has proven asset-light model with
strong returns on capital.
Kongsberg Gruppen operates in markets with
high barriers to entry and has strong niche
positions in different product groups.
Consequently the company has an outstanding
track record in value creation. We think the
company will continue its top-line growth based
on strong competitive positions built over the last
few years. The risk to our investment case is
austerity measures on the defence side which we
have seen over the last couple of years, and
falling capex among oil companies on the
offshore/maritime side. Government of Norway a
majority owner.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 15,300 Price 127.50 NOK
Net debt (mill.) -2,108 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 13,192 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 13,816 15,497 15,128 15,652 16,323 16,659 17,085
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 1,263 2,113 2,035 1,866 1,659 1,555 1,728
Net Income (mill.) 820 1,495 1,431 1,325 1,228 1,134 1,240
Price/Earnings 15.2 12.6 8.7 10.8 13.2 13.5 12.2
Price/Book Value 3.1 3.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.0
EV/EBIT 7.3 6.3 5.6 7.0 8.0 7.9 6.8
Return on Equity (%) 29.4 34.9 27.7 22.6 19.0 15.8 16.0
Dividend Yield (%) 3.3 2.5 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.9
Kongsberg Gruppen ASA Aerospace & Defense
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Kongsberg Gruppen
37
Marine Harvest is one of the largest seafood
companies in the world, and the world’s largest
producer of Atlantic salmon.
The company controls the entire value chain, from
feed production and farming to processing and
smoking.
Salmon prices have increased the last years, as
capacity growth has not been able to meet the
market demand, a situation which is likely to
continue the next couple of years.
We believe demand for salmon is a mega-trend
and Marine Harvest has a strong market position.
Despite strong share price recently, valuation of
Marine Harvest is still considered to be attractive.
38
0
50
100
150
200
250
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Marine Harvest ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 43,090 Price 105.00 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 8,352 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 51,441 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 14,500 15,191 16,133 15,569 19,230 25,241 28,012
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 1,506 3,191 2,827 992 3,335 4,161 5,953
Net Income (mill.) 1,296 3,078 1,116 409 2,423 1,511 4,225
Price/Earnings 141.0 8.6 3.9 85.3 18.5 15.1 10.7
Price/Book Value 1.4 1.9 0.9 1.7 2.2 3.0 2.7
EV/EBIT 13.3 8.6 5.6 25.8 10.9 12.4 8.7
Return on Equity (%) 12.3 25.7 9.6 3.7 17.3 19.6 25.8
Dividend Yield (%) 6.2 11.1 7.7 0.0 0.0 7.9 7.5
Marine Harvest ASA Agricultural Commodities/Milling
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Marine Harvest
39
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 10,401 Price 295.80 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 4,297 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 14,698 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 7,309 8,400 10,529 12,841 15,511 19,451 21,197
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 523 -3 121 722 399 -558 1,170
Net Income (mill.) 446 152 122 457 322 -416 730
Price/Earnings 12.6 20.6 9.0 16.8 12.3 - 15.5
Price/Book Value 2.7 2.2 0.9 2.1 2.3 4.3 3.5
EV/EBIT 7.7 - 40.0 12.3 27.6 - 18.2
Return on Equity (%) 35.7 9.0 6.6 20.9 12.4 -14.0 22.3
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA Airlines
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Norwegian Air is a leading low-cost carrier in
Europe. Recently, the company established long-
haul operations, mainly on routes from Europe to
America and from Europe to Asia.
Norwegian Air has grown substantially the last
few years as the company has a large aircraft
order with Boeing and Airbus. Demand in the
airline industry has been strong, so despite a
sharp increase in the fleet, industry load factor is
at a record high.
Going forward, Norwegian Air will continue to
have a strong growth in new aircrafts being
delivered.
The lower fuel price will help Norwegian’s
earnings going forward, while the weak NOK
affects negatively.
Pricing of the company is high, but given the
growth in earnings capacity and low fuel cost,
earnings will grow strongly forward.
Norwegian Air Shuttle
Olav Thon owns or operates most of the largest
shopping centers in Norway. Recently, Olav Thon
Eiendomsselskap has also expanded to Sweden.
Although shopping from internet represent a
challenging trend, we find the quality of the
company’s assets and the strong operating
performance to be supportive for further growth.
Olav Thon has a low financial leverage, enablig
the company to take advantage of opportunities to
grow further.
The current low interest rate scenario is
favourable for real-estate companies as
borrowing cost is low. Low interest rate is also
making real-estate an attractive asset class.
Valuation is attractive and we do not think it
reflects the company’s strong track-record and
good prospects.
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 13,731 Price 129.00 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 14,604 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 28,335 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 2,204 2,647 2,834 2,946 3,055 3,023 3,144
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 1,871 1,973
Net Income (mill.) 555 1,324 724 1,119 1,648 1,010 963
Price/Earnings 106.9 11.0 6.7 14.6 5.9 15.3 14.2
Price/Book Value 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9
EV/EBIT - - - - - 15.3 14.4
Return on Equity (%) 7.1 15.0 7.4 10.5 13.6 6.6 6.7
Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap ASA Real Estate Development
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Olav Thon Eiendomsselskap
Opera has two divisions, the browser division,
and the mobile advertising division.
The browser division has more than 350m users,
most of them on a mobile platform. The main
advantage with the Opera browser is the limited
data usage, which is both a benefit for telecom
operators as its saves network CAPEX, but also
for consumers as it enables data access in areas
with congestion or weak coverage.
The mobile advertising division, which was
introduced a few years ago through acquisitions,
has a strong market posision and a strong outook.
More advertising spending now finds its way
through mobile platforms.
The company is in the process of building a
strong market position in markets with promising
outlook.
41
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Opera Software ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 13,805 Price 96.40 NOK
Net debt (mill.) -627 USD
Enterprise Value (mill.) 13,178 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 97 114 160 216 300 494 740
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 9 17 38 50 62 79 144
Net Income (mill.) 5 4 25 17 60 20 98
Price/Earnings 41.3 125.5 34.3 30.5 124.1 31.4 18.0
Price/Book Value 4.0 5.5 5.0 4.8 9.8 4.1 3.3
EV/EBIT 34.8 28.9 14.0 12.0 27.0 22.3 12.1
Return on Equity (%) 5.1 3.8 21.5 13.2 26.2 12.9 18.1
Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.4
Opera Software ASA Internet Software/Services
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Opera Software
Petroleum Geo services (PGS) offers a broad
range of products including seismic and
electromagnetic services, data acquisition,
processing, reservoir analysis/interpretation and
multi-client library data helping oil companies to
find oil and gas reserves offshore.
In a currently challenging seismic market, PGS is
best positioned in the industry with the most
modern and cost efficient fleet and being able to
differentiate itself from peers due to its
Geostreamer technology.
PGS has a solid liquidity reserve and a strong
balance sheet to navigate through the downturn in
the seismic market and take delivery of two
newbuilds coming on stream in 2016.
The sharp drop in the share price in 2014 has
made the valuation attractive and we find good
risk/reward at current levels.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Petroleum Geo-Services ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 8,821 Price 40.50 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 4,538 USD
Enterprise Value (mill.) 13,359 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 1,350 1,135 1,253 1,518 1,502 1,433 1,330
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 387 137 137 292 396 205 122
Net Income (mill.) 174 -16 33 186 238 69 55
Price/Earnings 9.8 - 34.7 23.1 10.6 11.7 19.7
Price/Book Value 1.6 2.2 1.4 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.6
EV/EBIT 7.0 24.3 22.5 13.9 8.6 10.6 18.4
Return on Equity (%) 13.4 -1.1 1.8 10.2 12.1 4.9 2.8
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.6 3.0 4.6 2.3
Petroleum Geo-Services ASA Oilfield Services/Equipment
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Petroleum Geo Service
42
Prosafe is the world’s leading owner and operator
of semi-submersible accommodation vessels. The
fleet consists of a combination of dynamically
positioned and anchored vessels able to operate
in nearly all offshore environments.
Prosafe has a track record of profitable growth
with high return on invested capital, based on
term contracts and opportunistic counter cyclical
M&A.
The market has historically been a niche market
with few competitors, however a number of new
companies are now entering the market with
newbuilding orders. Increasing supply increases
risk of pressure on dayrates going forward.
Prosafes backlog of contracts is currently at
record levels giving visiblity the next few years.
Recent share price drop has made the valuation
attractive for long-term investors.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
ProSafe SE Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 5,522 Price 23.40 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 4,042 USD
Enterprise Value (mill.) 9,564 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 369 397 401 424 523 547 657
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 189 176 143 136 245 242 285
Net Income (mill.) 127 199 158 178 199 189 212
Price/Earnings 7.5 10.6 11.0 10.7 10.3 3.9 3.3
Price/Book Value 5.7 4.4 3.5 3.7 2.6 1.0 0.8
EV/EBIT 10.6 13.0 16.3 18.2 10.4 7.1 6.6
Return on Equity (%) 66.7 61.4 34.5 36.7 31.8 24.7 23.2
Dividend Yield (%) 1.8 4.0 5.5 6.9 7.1 13.8 6.9
ProSafe SE Oilfield Services/Equipment
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Prosafe
43
Salmar was established in 1991. The company is
mainly a salmon farming company, but in addition,
the company has a compherhensive prosessing
activity.
The company’s assets are located in Mid-Norway,
Norhern Norway, as well as some production in
Scotland through a joint venture.
Salmon prices have increased the last years, as
capacity growth has not been able to meet the
growth in market demand, a situation which is
likely to continue the next couple of years.
Salmar has historically shown good cost control
and is seen as one of the best salmon farmers in
the world.
Pricing of the company is considered to be
attractive, given the the bright outlook for the
industry and the company’s strong position.
44
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
SalMar ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 15,012 Price 132.50 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 1,770 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 16,783 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 2,376 3,400 3,796 4,180 6,246 7,104 7,598
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 595 945 572 324 1,263 1,834 2,136
Net Income (mill.) 471 947 145 467 1,790 1,253 1,542
Price/Earnings 9.7 8.4 6.8 21.0 5.8 11.2 9.7
Price/Book Value 3.0 3.0 1.5 1.9 2.0 2.9 2.6
EV/EBIT 9.3 8.7 10.3 24.4 8.2 9.4 8.0
Return on Equity (%) 31.3 46.8 6.5 19.0 47.4 26.2 26.5
Dividend Yield (%) 3.8 5.8 3.3 0.0 8.1 4.5 5.8
SalMar ASA Food: Meat/Fish/Dairy
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
.
Salmar
Schibsted is a media company with two main
business areas; newspapers and online
classified.
Weak markets for ordinary newspapers, have led
Schibsted to focus on cost-cuts and conversion to
online. Schibsted owns Aftenposten, VG, several
regional newspapers, Aftonbladet and Svenska
Dagbladet.
Schibsted also owns several leading online
classified portals in several European countries,
in addition to having strong positions in large and
emerging countries such as Brazil and Malaysia.
This is a winner-takes-it-all industry, where
margins are exceptionally higher for the leaders.
An agreement with South African Naspers have
led to Schibsted to be part of joint ventures that
have the number one positions in several
emerging markets.
Threats include other online portals such as
Facebook and LinkedIn.
45
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Schibsted ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 52,069 Price 482.10 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 1,131 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 53,200 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 12,745 13,768 14,378 14,763 15,232 15,001 15,795
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 899 1,532 1,641 1,515 1,169 762 1,718
Net Income (mill.) 68 2,794 742 185 1,536 43 878
Price/Earnings - 15.7 6.4 35.7 - - 62.9
Price/Book Value 2.6 3.3 2.5 3.9 7.1 7.9 6.8
EV/EBIT 14.8 12.7 10.4 17.8 38.0 70.3 30.9
Return on Equity (%) 1.6 48.5 11.3 3.1 23.0 -0.1 10.9
Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.5 2.3 1.5 0.9 0.7 0.8
Schibsted ASA Publishing: Newspapers
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Schibsted
SpareBank 1 SMN is the leading financial
institution in the Mid-Norway region, and one of
six members of SpareBank 1 Alliansen.
As the leading savingsbank in the region, the
company offers all services, including investment
banking.
The bank has historically shown a healthy growth
and solid return on equity based on good
operations and limited loan losses.
The last years, interest margin has widened from
low levels after the financial crisis, enabling the
bank to show a rapid earnings growth.
Pricing of the bank is low despite a solid core
capital position and decent prospects.
46
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
SpareBank 1 SMN Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 7,336 Price 56.50 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 38,652 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 45,988 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 4,320 4,329 4,875 5,191 5,817 3,997 3,860
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 2,183 2,084
Net Income (mill.) 931 1,017 1,016 1,052 1,360 1,742 1,507
Price/Earnings 3.7 4.8 3.5 3.6 6.8 7.0 7.6
Price/Book Value 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8
EV/EBIT - - - - - - -
Return on Equity (%) 16.0 14.6 12.7 11.6 12.9 12.8 11.0
Dividend Yield (%) 4.7 5.3 5.7 4.5 3.1 4.0 4.0
SpareBank 1 SMN Regional Banks
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SpareBank 1 SMN
SpareBank 1 SR is the leading financial institution
in the Rogaland region, and one of six members
of SpareBank 1 Alliansen.
As the leading savingsbank in the region, the
company offers all services, including investment
banking and asset management.
The bank has historically shown a healthy growth
and solid return on equity based on good
operations and limited loan losses.
The last years, interest margin has widened from
low levels after the financial crisis, enabling the
bank to show a rapid earnings growth.
With recent decline in oil price, outlook has
weakened, but in our view, the market expects too
high losses going forward, hence valuation is
considered to be attractive.
47
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 13,107 Price 51.25 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 65,238 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 78,345 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 6,288 6,189 6,709 7,002 7,622 4,900 4,776
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) - - - - - 2,853 2,697
Net Income (mill.) 1,109 1,317 1,081 1,361 1,860 2,096 1,845
Price/Earnings 5.7 4.7 4.6 5.5 9.4 6.7 7.1
Price/Book Value 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.8
EV/EBIT - - - - - - -
Return on Equity (%) 15.8 15.1 11.3 12.2 13.9 12.5 10.8
Dividend Yield (%) 3.1 4.4 4.5 4.0 2.6 4.0 4.4
SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA Regional Banks
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
SpareBank 1 SR
48
0
50
100
150
200
250
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Stolt-Nielsen Limited Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 8,017 Price 125.00 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 10,048 USD
Enterprise Value (mill.) 18,065 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 1,645 1,794 2,029 2,072 2,100 2,156 2,273
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 102 130 129 81 116 180 242
Net Income (mill.) 95 113 93 70 86 83 109
Price/Earnings 5.9 12.2 10.1 13.4 25.0 15.4 8.4
Price/Book Value 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.6
EV/EBIT 18.1 16.3 20.5 31.3 29.3 16.4 12.9
Return on Equity (%) 6.8 7.5 5.7 4.8 5.7 4.0 7.1
Dividend Yield (%) 3.7 3.8 5.0 4.3 3.5 6.0 6.1
Stolt-Nielsen Limited Marine Shipping
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Stolt-Nielsen Limited is a leading global provider
of bulk-liquid transportation, storage and
distribution services through its three largest
operating units: Stolt Tankers, Stolthaven
Terminals and Stolt Tank Containers. Stolt Sea
Farm is a leading producer of turbot, sole and
caviar. Stolt Bitumen Services is developing a
bitumen distribution network in Asia Pacific.
Stolt-Nielsen Gas is focused on the development
of opportunities in LPG shipping.
The US chemical industry is enjoying low cost
feedstock and this should give rise to improving
demand for chemical shipping services. Moderate
fleet growth coupled with a persisting cost
advantage for the US chemical industry should
give rise to an improving market. Despite the
uptick in new orders, the tanker fleet is expected
to grow by 4% annually in 2015 and 2016.
The recent sharp drop in share price has made
valuation attractive.
Stolt Nielsen
Subsea 7 is one of the world’s leading global
contractors in seabed-to-surface engineering,
construction and services to the oil industry. The
company provides technical solutions to enable
the delivery of complex projects in all water
depths and challenging environments.
The subsea construction market is characterised
by few players and a high number of complex
projects. Order intake is therefore lumpy and the
industry is typically late cyclical. Current order
backlog is strong for execution the next couple of
years.
Oil companies are reducing E&P spending by
postponing projects and there are currently few
tenders in the market.
Historically, earnings and return on capital have
been decent, but is dependent on good project
execution.
Recent sharp price drop has made valuation
attractive. Subsea 7 is paying dividends and is
buying back own shares.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Subsea 7 S.A. Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 24,364 Price 73.35 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 1,216 USD
Enterprise Value (mill.) 25,580 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 2,209 2,369 5,055 6,297 6,297 7,091 6,027
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 308 392 559 756 572 1,011 735
Net Income (mill.) 238 221 391 830 348 739 519
Price/Earnings 3.9 16.8 12.2 9.5 16.3 4.7 6.5
Price/Book Value 2.6 3.5 1.1 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.4
EV/EBIT 7.3 10.8 13.1 11.6 13.3 3.5 5.0
Return on Equity (%) 26.3 19.7 10.4 13.9 5.4 10.0 6.7
Dividend Yield (%) 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 6.2
Subsea 7 S.A. Oilfield Services/Equipment
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Subsea 7
49
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Telenor ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 236,329 Price 157.40 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 45,287 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 281,616 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 97,650 94,843 98,516 101,718 104,027 110,040 115,288
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 16,372 13,086 15,217 17,662 21,537 25,459 25,688
Net Income (mill.) 9,063 14,749 7,165 10,067 8,748 12,200 15,916
Price/Earnings 15.9 10.7 13.3 47.9 15.3 19.6 15.1
Price/Book Value 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.0
EV/EBIT 10.4 14.1 11.8 12.4 12.5 11.0 10.9
Return on Equity (%) 11.6 18.0 8.3 12.7 11.9 16.0 19.7
Dividend Yield (%) 2.3 3.7 4.8 5.1 4.7 5.0 5.4
Telenor ASA Major Telecommunications
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Telenor is a global leading telecom operator, with
operations in 13 countries in Europe and Asia.
The company is mainly focused on mobile
operations, but also offers fixed line telephony in
Norway, Sweden and Denmark as well as owning
a broadcasting business in Norway.
Telecom operators face challenges in mature
markets due to price competition and pressure on
networks. Telenor does however have substantial
part of its operations in emerging markets such as
India, Bangladesh and Pakistan, which still offers
upside potential through increased penetration
and data usage.
Telenor, with top 3 positions in all markets (except
India), should therefore be able to grow earnings
going forward.
Telenor
51
0
50
100
150
200
250
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
TOMRA Systems ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 8,659 Price 58.50 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 1,392 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 10,052 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 3,321 3,496 3,690 4,073 4,602 4,802 5,137
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 387 514 629 669 601 608 782
Net Income (mill.) 249 74 403 440 386 394 525
Price/Earnings 14.4 155.2 15.5 20.7 19.6 21.8 16.5
Price/Book Value 2.3 3.3 2.9 3.5 3.2 3.0 2.7
EV/EBIT 11.7 12.1 10.4 13.3 16.4 16.3 12.4
Return on Equity (%) 12.9 4.0 20.3 19.9 15.4 13.5 16.4
Dividend Yield (%) 1.9 1.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.6 3.1
TOMRA Systems ASA Miscellaneous Manufacturing
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Tomra
Tomra has two core business areas; 1) the
traditional reverse vending machines for
cans/bottles (Collection Solutions), and 2) the
sorting divisions, which has food, mining and
waste as core areas (Sorting Solutions).
Tomra is the clear leader in Collection Solutions,
with a market share around 70%. Growth is
normally low single digit, but make jumps
whenever a new market is introduced.
Tomra is also the leader within Sorting Solutions.
The market for solutions to sort waste, food and
certain mining verticals is considered to be a
mega-trend. Growth is double digit, and the
long-term prospects are promising.
Tomra has a strong market position in a market
that has promising prospects for further growth.
52
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Veidekke ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 10,028 Price 75.00 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 712 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 10,740 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 15,452 15,644 17,632 19,729 21,680 23,841 24,894
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 389 334 310 531 537 925 1,097
Net Income (mill.) 402 345 638 448 544 760 880
Price/Earnings 16.6 15.4 11.4 13.3 12.2 13.7 11.5
Price/Book Value 3.6 3.7 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.2
EV/EBIT 17.6 22.4 18.6 14.7 13.6 9.5 9.4
Return on Equity (%) 19.6 17.3 30.3 19.9 23.3 26.5 27.4
Dividend Yield (%) 5.0 4.8 6.9 5.8 5.9 4.4 4.9
Veidekke ASA Engineering & Construction
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Veidekke is a leading construction company in
Scandianavia. The company is also one of the
biggest real-estate developers in Norway and
Sweden.
After some difficult years from 2009-11, volumes
have again picked up, driven both by public and
private activity. Both infrastructure as well as
buildings are important areas for the company.
Outlook is good. Too few residental houses are
being built and governments seem to be positive
in relation to expanding infrastructure activities
within tunnels, roads and railroads.
The company generates high return on equity. We
find the valuation attractive and believe the
company has a strong position in a strong market.
Veidekke
53
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA Class B Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 7,608 Price 161.00 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 6,619 USD
Enterprise Value (mill.) 14,227 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 1,015 1,076 1,247 1,325 1,313 3,328 3,397
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 2 42 99 182 123 305 357
Net Income (mill.) 331 60 188 329 260 151 201
Price/Earnings 4.1 21.3 5.1 3.5 7.1 6.7 4.9
Price/Book Value 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.5
EV/EBIT 930.8 56.0 27.4 15.5 25.9 7.3 5.9
Return on Equity (%) 30.5 5.0 13.9 22.3 15.1 8.4 10.6
Dividend Yield (%) 1.6 0.3 3.4 4.3 3.3 3.6 4.0
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA Class B Marine Shipping
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding is a global maritime
industry group focusing on shipping and
integrated logistics services for cars and rolling
cargo through our shareholding in Wilh.
Wilhelmsen ASA. Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding also
occupy a leading position in the global maritime
service industry through Wilhelmsen Maritime
Services.
The historical trend for transport demand was
closely related to number of cars sold: the
incremental growth in car sales tended to be
driven by imported cars. In key markets, this is
still the case, but the manufacturing locations are
moving closer to the consumers, therby reducing
demand for transportation. Demand for high and
heavy cargo, dominated by machinery for mining,
agriculture and construction, is still slow.
The stock trades at a historical high discount to
the sum of the parts.
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding
54
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
jan.10 jan.11 jan.12 jan.13 jan.14 jan.15
Performance - last 5 years
Yara International ASA Norway OSE Mutual Fund
Market Value (mill.) 108,696 Price 393.50 NOK
Net debt (mill.) 3,379 NOK
Enterprise Value (mill.) 112,075 1.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales (mill.) 60,867 64,006 77,726 83,997 84,668 93,379 98,680
EBIT (Operating Income) (mill.) 1,122 5,989 10,714 10,945 8,126 10,654 10,899
Net Income (mill.) 3,782 8,729 12,066 10,602 5,748 7,541 8,024
Price/Earnings 299.7 11.3 6.7 6.6 9.3 13.7 13.6
Price/Book Value 2.7 2.9 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.7
EV/EBIT 82.6 17.9 7.0 7.3 9.6 10.7 10.4
Return on Equity (%) 12.9 27.3 30.2 22.9 11.2 13.5 12.4
Dividend Yield (%) 1.7 1.6 2.8 4.2 4.1 2.8 3.0
Yara International ASA Chemicals: Agricultural
Price currency
Reporting currency
FX rate (NOK)
Yara is a leading global fertilizer company. The
company has operations in more than 50
countries and offers the most compherhensive
range of fertilizer products in the industry,
including ammonia, nitrates, NPK and specialty
fertilizers.
Fertilizers are important for optimising agricultural
production. Demand for fertilizers is increasing
annually by approximately 2%, twice the worlds’
population growth.
Yara’s earnings will increase as a result of lower
gas prices in most parts of the world, enabling
lower costs.
There are many moving parts determining Yara’s
future earnings, such as weather, gas prices,
fertilizer prices, Chinese tax regime, nitrate
premiums etc. However, historically the company
has navigated impressively in this market.
Valuation is considered to be attractive.
Yara
Investment Objective Long term value creation
We prefer performing companies, with
strong long term prospects, available
at favourable prices
Investment Philosophy Performance - prospects - price
Performance Operating excellence
Prospects Strong competitive position
Price Favourable valuation
«Doing good business with bad people simply
doesn’t work» Warren E. Buffet
«We don’t focus at beating the market short term.
We want our holdings to beat their competitors
long term»
«The bitterness of poor quality remains long after
the sweetness of a nice price is forgotten»
Börje Ekholm
Unknown
57
Om ODIN Norge
ODIN Norge är en aktivt förvaltad aktiefond som
investerar på den norska aktiemarknaden.
Fondens långsiktiga mål är att ge högre avkastning
än den norska aktiemarknaden, mätt med fondens
referensindex.
Fakta om fonden
Startår 26.06.1992
Referensindex OSEFX Oslo Børs Fondindeks
Basvaluta NOK
Förvaltningsavgift 2 %
Tecknings-/inlösenavgift 0 %
Minsta teckningsbelopp 500 EUR
58
Om förvaltaren
Fondens ansvariga förvaltare Jarle Sjo kom till ODIN i januari 2011 och blev investeringsdirektör i december 2011. Han har en magisterexamen i finans och lång erfarenhet av portföljförvaltning och analys av shipping- och offshoresektorn.
Jarles långa erfarenhet från och djupa insikt i sjöfarts- och offshoresektorn i synnerhet och aktiv portföljförvaltning i allmänhet har gjort honom till en erkänd sakkunnig i norska medier.
Logga in på
ODIN Online
Klicka här
Teckna andelar
Klicka här
Beställ ODINs
nyhetsbrev
Klicka här
Kundservice
09 4735 5100
59
Vi påminner om att…
Historisk avkastning är ingen garanti för framtida avkastning, som bland annat beror på marknadsutvecklingen,
förvaltarens skicklighet, fondens risk samt kostnader för köp och förvaltning. Avkastningen kan bli negativ om
aktiekurserna faller.
Uttalandena i denna rapport speglar ODINs syn på marknaden vid den tidpunkt då rapporten utarbetats. Vi har
använt källor som bedöms vara pålitliga, men vi kan inte garantera att uppgifterna från dessa källor är korrekta
eller fullständiga.
Anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS får handla för egen räkning med flera slags finansiella instrument. Det
innebär att anställda hos ODIN Forvaltning AS kan äga värdepapper i företag som omnämns i den här
rapporten, liksom andelar i ODINs fonder. Anställdas egenhandel ska följa ODIN Forvaltning AS interna
riktlinjer för anställdas egenhandel, som har utarbetats i enlighet med den norska lagen om handel med
värdepapper ("verdipapirhandelloven") och Verdipapirfondenes forenings branschstandard.
Mer information finns på www.odin.fi/se
60