Octobre 23rd, 2015 London€¦ · MAIZE imports to the UK – main origins data: Eurostat, French...
Transcript of Octobre 23rd, 2015 London€¦ · MAIZE imports to the UK – main origins data: Eurostat, French...
• 1
French grains
and
international market conditions
Octobre 23rd, 2015
London
• 2
� A dull demand VS plentiful availabilities
� EU market: the French production makes an exception
�French balances: a competition-related challenge
� French cereals to the UK: a flow gaining momentum
2015/16: a marketing year under maximum pressure
• 3
British
cereals import needs
and countries of origin
• 4
23 15 17 15
5792
7154
18
25 54
19
56
12
5
52
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 (pr)
1 00
0 t,
Jul
y/Ju
ne
others
PL
EE
FI
PT
DK
DE
IE
FR
BARLEY imports to the UK – main origins
data: Eurostat
125 kt
95 kt
Main origins, adding up to 80% (or over) of total imports
« Others » : per mktg year
156 kt
237 kt
96 kt
• 5
557330 276
597446
157
223
128 116
1 061
218 163
366
308 299
328
363
281
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15(pr)
1 00
0 t,
July
/Jun
e
others
US
CAN
BG
PL
IE
DK
DE
FR
Soft WHEAT imports to the UK – main origins
data: Eurostat
965 kt
2,9 Mt
2,1 Mt
Main origins, adding up to 80% (or over) of total imports
« Others » : per mktg year
843 kt
1,6 Mt
• 6
447 588 601 572 692
442
712
218
234151
313182
169
154182157
0
250
500
750
1 000
1 250
1 500
1 750
2 000
2 250
2 500
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 (pr)
1 00
0 t,
Jul
y/Ju
ne
others
UKR
CAN
ARG
PL
IE
BG
RO
FR
MAIZE imports to the UK – main origins
data: Eurostat, French Customs
1,0 Mt 1,0 Mt
1,7 Mt
2,4 Mt
Main origins, adding up to 80% (or over) of total imports
« Others » : per mktg year
1,750 Mt
• 7
The 2015/16 marketing year
on the international market
Competition at its highest
• 8
External factors… powerful factors
data: ECB / La Dépêche / IGC
Crude oil price Ocean freight rates (BDI)
>>> distant places become « nearer »
Inde
x po
ints
>>> inputs & freightcosts>>> biofuels profitability>>> oil exportingcountries revenue
Exchange rate €/$
>>> -11 % / Y-1+ 1 % / m-1
1,05
1,09
1,13
1,17
1,21
1,25
1,2921
/10/
1421
/11/
1421
/12/
1421
/01/
1521
/02/
1521
/03/
1521
/04/
1521
/05/
1521
/06/
1521
/07/
1521
/08/
1521
/09/
1521
/10/
15
1 €
= ...
$
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
15/1
0/14
15/1
1/14
15/1
2/14
15/0
1/15
15/0
2/15
15/0
3/15
15/0
4/15
15/0
5/15
15/0
6/15
15/0
7/15
15/0
8/15
15/0
9/15
15/1
0/15
Bre
nt, $
/bar
il500600700800900
1 0001 1001 2001 3001 4001 500
21/1
0/14
21/1
1/14
21/1
2/14
21/0
1/15
21/0
2/15
21/0
3/15
21/0
4/15
21/0
5/15
21/0
6/15
21/0
7/15
21/0
8/15
21/0
9/15
21/1
0/15
• 9
World WHEAT fundamentals & prices
data: IGC
0
145
290
435
580
725
06/
07
07/
08
08/
09
09/
10
10/
11
11/
12
12/
13
13/
14
14/
15
15/
16
Mt
prod.
closing st.
use
(720) 727RECORD
(707) 719
(202) 211RECORD
Closing stocks / Use ratio
29%
20%
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
32%
06/
07
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
310
330
350
20/1
0/14
20/1
1/14
20/1
2/14
20/0
1/15
20/0
2/15
20/0
3/15
20/0
4/15
20/0
5/15
20/0
6/15
20/0
7/15
20/0
8/15
20/0
9/15
20/1
0/15
Argentina
Australia ASW
Black Sea (milling)
Canada CWRS
France FCW1
Germany B
UK (feed)
US HRW
US SRW
• 10
WHEAT world trade
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
16006
/07
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6
Mt
data: IGC, 24/09/15
- 0,413,513,9Flour
<> Crops (+) in the EU & North Africa
<> Availabilities in low & medium quality wheat, feed interest in Asia (CIF price)
- 3,6115,3118,9Millingwheat
- 1,28,19,3Durum
12,0
148,8
2015/16
+ 0,711,3Feedwheat
<> Crops (+) Middle East & North Africa
- 4,6153,4Total wheat
change2014/15
•Ukrainian crop: 60 % feed (x2 / p.y.)
• Brasilian feed wheat (rain at harvest): very competitive offers
• 11
World wheat: the price war is raging
175
185
195
205
215
225
21/0
9/15
23/0
9/15
25/0
9/15
27/0
9/15
29/0
9/15
01/1
0/15
03/1
0/15
05/1
0/15
07/1
0/15
09/1
0/15
11/1
0/15
13/1
0/15
15/1
0/15
17/1
0/15
19/1
0/15
$/t,
FO
BBlack Sea(milling)
France FCW1
Germany B
US SRW
• Rising Ukr. feed wheat prices (exporters covering sales to Asian compouders)
24 200)(Prod.
13 000Forecast
43%5 6072 330Septembre
25%3 2772 201August
8%1 0761 076July
shipped / forecast
Mktg year to date2015/16
Data: UACExports, 1 000 t
data: CIC ; UAC
• French price: at parity withBlack Sea
• Rising Russian prices (firmRUB, intervention priceincrease)
• recent deals: very agressive prices out of the EU
• 12
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
FR
DE
UK PL
RO ES
HU
DK
BG CZ
2014/15 2015/16
EU – WHEAT production
Data: EC (24/09/15) except FR: FranceAgriMer
1 00
0 t
+9%
- 5%
- 8%
- 15%- 10%
(2014/15)150 Mt
(2015/16)145,7 Mt
• 13
EU – WHEAT S&D estimate
EXPORT licencesgrains – season total at week 15 (13/10/15)
4848 48
1111 11
1199
149145
135
332
4352 52
283330
15119
13/14 14/15 15/16
Mt,
Jul/J
une
Op. st. prod. Imp. Food Indus.
Feed Seeds Losses Exp. Cl. st.
Common Wheat S&D
(grains + 1st transf.)
?
Data: EC
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
S1 S3 S5 S7 S9 S11 S13 S15
hebd
o, 1
000
t
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
cumul, 1 000 t
sour
ce :
CE
hebdo 15/16 hebdo 14/15
cumul 15/16 cumul 14/15
- 17 % y.o.y.
• 14
World BARLEY fundamentals & prices
(141) 140
(26) 27
(141) 139
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6
Mt
Prod.
Closing st.
Use
data: CIC
Closing stocks / Use ratio
21%
14%16%18%20%22%24%26%28%30%
06/
07
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
20/1
0/14
20/1
1/14
20/1
2/14
20/0
1/15
20/0
2/15
20/0
3/15
20/0
4/15
20/0
5/15
20/0
6/15
20/0
7/15
20/0
8/15
20/0
9/15
20/1
0/15
$/t,
FO
B
Arg. feed
Austr. (Eastern St.) feed
Aust (Eastern St.) malting
Black Sea feed
France (Rouen) feed
Germ. (Hamburg) feed
• 15
World BARLEY market: what level of competition shall wesee?
8,68,09,2(April/March) barley prod.
15/1614/1513/14Data: ABARES, 15/09/15
dryness & temperatures should rise by the end of 2015
>>> decrease in grain yields (& grass)?>>> impact on exportable surplus?
8 060(Prod.
3 400Forecast
85%2 877782Septembre
62%2 0951 121August
29%974974July
shipped / forecast
Mktg yearto date2015/16
Data: UACExports, 1 000 t
� Ukraine : how much is left?Ukraine : sold out?
Russia ~ 1/3 done
Baltique: almost sold out?
>>> towards a tight world barleyS&D situation?
� Australia : how much will there be?
?
• 16
China: what level of support to the feed market in 2015/16 ?Restrictive import measures & a struggling economy
A burdensome domestic maize stock to drawdown
- Since January 2015 : Maize import licences subordinate to purchase made out of intervention stock
- 2015/16 : maize support price expected to decrease
- since September 1st, 2015 : Barley , sorghum, distillers’ grains import licences introduced
- Currently: Quality controls at ports (unloadingdelays)
Australian prices down , reflecting less Chinese demand
>>> towards a heavy barley S&D situation?
0
10
20
30
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
orge part Chine
27 %
Barley trade China imports
A game changingfactor in 2014/15
• 17
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
FR
DE
ES
UK
DK PL
CZ IE SE
RO
2014/15 2015/16
EU – BARLEY production
1 00
0 t
Data: EC (24/09/15) except FR: FranceAgriMer
+6% + 1%
= - 5%
- 2% - 4%
(2014/15)61 Mt
(2015/16)59 Mt
• 18
EU – BARLEY S&D estimateEXPORT licences
grains – season total at week 15 (13/10/15)
9 9 9
4 7 7
615960
363637
9 13 97
79
13/14 14/15 15/16
Mt,
Jul
/Jun
eOp. st. prod. Imp. Food Indus.
Feed Seeds Losses Exp. Cl. st.
Barley S&D(grains + 1st transf.)
Data: EC
?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
S1 S3 S5 S7 S9 S11 S13 S15
hebd
o, 1
000
t
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
cumul, 1 000 t
sour
ce :
CE
hebdo 15/16 hebdo 14/15
cumul 15/16 cumul 14/15
+ 56 % y.o.y.
• 19
World MAIZE fundamentals & prices
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
06
/07
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6
Mt
Prod.
Closing st.
Use
Data: IGC
(1 005) 967
(980) 970
(203) 199
Closing stocks / Use ratio
21%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
06/
07
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
20/1
0/14
20/1
1/14
20/1
2/14
20/0
1/15
20/0
2/15
20/0
3/15
20/0
4/15
20/0
5/15
20/0
6/15
20/0
7/15
20/0
8/15
20/0
9/15
20/1
0/15
$/t,
FO
B
Argentina (Up River)
Black Sea
Brazil (Paranagua)
US (3YC, Gulf)
• 20
Black Sea maize: the price of dry conditions
23 000
25 90027 000
16 500
18 80019 900
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
13/14 14/15 15/16
1 00
0 t
Prod. Exp.
Data: UkrAgroConsult
UkraineRomania
7 700
11 734
2 500
5 900
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14/15 15/16
1 0
00 t
Prod. Exp.
2 7003 000
2 0002 050
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
14/15 15/16
1 0
00
t
Prod. Exp.
Bulgaria
• 21
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
FR
RO
HU IT DE
ES PL
2014/15 2015/16
EU – MAIZE production (forecast)1
000
t
Data: EC (24/09/15) except FR: FranceAgriMer
(2014/15)78 Mt
(RECORD)
(2015/16)59 Mt
- 26%
- 36%- 34%
- 18%
- 11% - 8% - 23%
• 22
EU – MAIZE S&D estimateIMPORT licences
grains – season total at week 15 (13/10/15)
1010
10
13 15 23
6758
7815
911
626061
34
3
1523
11
13/14 14/15 15/16
Mt,
Jul/J
une
Op. st. prod. Imp. Food Indus.
Feed Seeds Losses Exp. Cl. st.
Maize S&D(grains + 1st transf.)
?
Data: EC
?
Shall we see a higher import interest than last
year?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
S1 S3 S5 S7 S9 S11 S13 S15
hebd
o, 1
000
t
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
cumul, 1 000 t
sour
ce :
CE
hebdo 15/16 hebdo 14/15
cumul 15/16 cumul 14/15
- 17 % prp N-1
• 23
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
IT FR EL
ES
2014/15 2015/16
EU – DURUM production
1 00
0 t
Data: EC (24/09/15) except FR: FranceAgriMer
-2%
+22%
-11% +20%
(2014/15)7,7 Mt
(2015/16)8 Mt
• 24
French cereals – export prices
data: FranceAgriMer
155160165170175180185190195200205210215220225230235240245250255260265
21/1
0/14
06/1
1/14
25/1
1/14
11/1
2/14
30/1
2/14
16/0
1/15
03/0
2/15
19/0
2/15
09/0
3/15
25/0
3/15
10/0
4/15
28/0
4/15
19/0
5/15
05/0
6/15
23/0
6/15
09/0
7/15
27/0
7/15
12/0
8/15
28/0
8/15
15/0
9/15
01/1
0/15
19/1
0/15
$/t,
FO
B
"Supérieur" Wheat (Rouen) Barley (Rouen)Maize (Bordeaux) "Supérieur" Wheat (La Pallice)Maize (Rhin)
($/t) 170175180185190195200205
21/0
9/15
24/0
9/15
29/0
9/15
02/1
0/15
07/1
0/15
12/1
0/15
15/1
0/15
20/1
0/15
183
193
181
194
189
Price decrease:10 to 17% y.o.y.except maize
• 25
BARLEY: shipments from French ports to third-countries (season total)
0,00,20,40,60,81,01,21,41,61,82,02,22,42,62,83,03,23,43,6
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Mt
2013/14 2014/15 2015/16
Data: French Customs, Infograin, Reuter’s
October 9th, 2015 : 2,1 Mt shipped
China = 96% (2 Mt on October 9th)
• 26
Common WHEAT: shipments from French ports to third-countries (season total)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Mt
2015/16 2013/14 2014/15
Data: French Customs, Infograin, Reuter’s
October 9th, 2015 : 2,3 Mt shippedAlgeria: 1,4 MtSub-Sah. Africa
1st quarter = 2 Mt + 17% / 2014/15– 15% / 2013/14
• 27
The French grain balances
in the international context
• 28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6
Mt
wheat maize barley durum
French cereals exports (grains and 1st transf. products)
Source : FranceAgriMer
• 29
French DURUM exports
15/16: Oct. 2015 forecast data: French customs
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6*
.
grai
ns, 1
000
t
North Afr. other 3rd countr.
440 kt
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6*
.
grai
ns,
1 00
0 t
Italy other EU
950 kt
Non-EU countries EU countries
� 5 y. av: 1,5 Mt
� 13/14 & 14/15: decrease in durum area
• 30
French DURUM balance
0,3 0,1 0,1
0,2
1,8 1,41,7
0,10,04
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
2,4
13/14 14/15 15/16
Mt
opening st. mktd prod. imp.
0,46 0,46 0,46
0,16 0,16 0,16
1,02 0,95 0,80
0,440,32
0,18
-0,14
0,40
0,100,09
-0,2
0,2
0,6
1,0
1,4
1,8
2,2
13/14 14/15 15/16
availablequantity
5-year averagecarry-out stock
closing st.
third-countriesexp.
EU exp.
products exp.
others
feed
semolina
P : 1,8P : 1,8
P : 1,5
Data: FranceAgriMer
� Decrease in area: -1/3 within 2 years
� 2015/16, plan to boost durum production: on our way
• 31
French MAIZE exports to EU countries
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6*
grai
ns, 1
000
t
ES NL BE UK DE IT IE PT other EU
� + Spain, NorthernEU
� Competition fromthe Ukraine (South EU)
� 14/15: availabilities, import duty in the EU, Ukrmaize to China
� 15/16: feed wheatavailabilities # maizeavailabilities15/16: Oct. 2015 forecast
data: French customs
• 32
French MAIZE exports to non-EU countries
0
100
200
300
400
500
60000
/01
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6*
grai
ns, 1
000
t
Switzerland Norway North Afr.
South Korea other 3rd countr.
� European non-EU countries
� North Africa
� Asia
15/16: Oct. 2015 forecast
data: French customs
• 33
French MAIZE balance ֠ grain maize (silage maize excluded)
2,5 3,02,4
11,412,5
16,1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
13/14 14/15 15/16
Mt
opening st. mktd prod. imp.
2,3 2,3 2,3
3,5 3,70,5 0,5
0,5
4,77,5
5,1
0,4
0,4
0,2
2,4
2,9
3,0
-0,2-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
13/14 14/15 15/16
availablequantity
5-year averagecarry-out stock
closing st.
third-countriesexp.
EU exp.
semolina exp.
other dom. uses
alcohol
feed
starch
P : 14,5
P : 17,9
P : 13,0
� Area & yield down
� 2014/15: an absolute record
� Opening st.: total supply near 2013/14
� Feed: relative prices with wheat
� Estimated export consistent with estimated availabilities (updates to come)
Data: FranceAgriMer
• 34
French BARLEY exports to EU countries
0
600
1 200
1 800
2 400
3 000
3 600
4 200
4 800
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6*
grai
ns, 1
000
t
BE NL DE IT ES PT CY other EU
� + Northern EU
� dynamic exports, less competitive in feed rations
� 14/15:
Non-EU exports > EU exports
15/16: Oct. 2015 forecast
data: French customs
• 35
French BARLEY exports to non-EU countries: a dramatic change from 2014/15
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,000
/01
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6*
grai
ns,
Mt
Saudi Arabia North Afr. Asia other 3rd countr.
� Asia ~ China
� a traditionalmalting barleymarket for France
� the 2014/15 new deal: all about Chinese feed grains imports
� a series of restrictive measures
15/16: Oct. 2015 forecast
data: French customs
• 36
French BARLEY balance
1,3 1,0 1,0
8,49,9
10,8
0123456789
1011
13/14 14/15 15/16
Mt
opening st. mktd prod. imp.
1,2 1,0 1,0
1,5 1,6 1,6
3,5 3,0 3,1
1,6 3,61,0
1,0
3,7
1,10,6
0123456789
101112
13/14 14/15 15/16
availablequantity
5-year averagecarry-out stock
closing st.
third-countriesexp.
EU exp.
malt exp.
other dom. use
feed
hum. & indus.(dom.)
P : 10,3P : 11,7
P : 12,5
� Very high level of prod.
� Feed: at a technical minimum
� Chinese demand since 2014/15
� available quantities to respond to additional demand
Source : FranceAgriMer
• 37
French WHEAT exports to EU countries
0
1 000
2 0003 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 0009 000
10 000
11 000
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6*
grai
ns, 1
000
t
NL BE ES IT PT DE UK other EU
� Northern & Southern EU
� Milling & feedusage
15/16: Oct. 2015 forecast
data: French customs
• 38
French WHEAT exports to non-EU countries:an ability to adapt
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1400
/01
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
15/1
6*
grai
ns,
Mt
North Afr. Sub-Sah. Afr. Egypt Asia other 3rd countr.
� the 2007/08 crisis: a turningpoint
� North & Sub-Sah. Africa: a growingdemand in Fr. grains
� a non-typical14/15 season: Algeria, Egypt, Asia
15/16: Oct. 2015 forecast
data: French customs
• 39
French WHEAT balance
2,9 2,52,3
37,4
34,034,5
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
13/14 14/15 15/16
Mt
opening st. mktd prod. imp.4,9 4,8 4,9
2,8 2,84,4 4,4 5,11,6 1,6 1,6
6,8 7,9 7,6
2,3 2,5
2,8
12,211,5
11,4
2,62,2
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
13/14 14/15 15/16
available
5y av. carry-out
closing st.
third-countriesexp.EU exp.
flour exp.
other dom. use
alcohol
feed
starch
milling (dom.)
P : 36,9 P : 37,5P : 41,0
� Unprecedented production level
� Price competitiveness in feed rations
� World competition
� An on-going balancing process
Source : FranceAgriMer
• 40
French cereals exports within the EU main destinations in 2014/15
0500
1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 5005 0005 500
NL
UE
BL
ES IT DE
UK
PT
EL+
CY
1 00
0 t
maize barley wheat durum
5,2 Mt
4,4 Mt3,8 Mt
2,1 Mt
1,4 Mt0,8 Mt
1,1 Mt
0,140 Mt
data: French customs
• 41
Exports of French grains to the UK
799570593
234
351547
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
00/0
1
01/0
2
02/0
3
03/0
4
04/0
5
05/0
6
06/0
7
07/0
8
08/0
9
09/1
0
10/1
1
11/1
2
12/1
3
13/1
4
14/1
5
1 00
0 t
maize wheat barley durum
� 5 y av. Maize: 573 kt 2015/16 (fcst) 550 kt
Wheat: 270 kt 225 kt
Barley: 10 ky 5 kt
Durum: 48 kt
� Starch industry 2002-2008 >>> fall in UK maizeindustrial use
• 42
French maize: crop condition
yield prospects
Just about to bereleased
• 43
French maize: crop progress
Area harvested
Just about to bereleased
• 44
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