October 7, 2015

Alexandra Forter Sirota, DirectorBudget & Tax Center

Changing Demographics &Economic Conditions in

North Carolina

A non-profit, non-partisan project of the North Carolina Justice Center founded in 1994 to conduct fiscal and economic analysis of the policies and issues impacting low- and moderate income families in North Carolina

MAJOR ACCOMPLISHMENTS:• Repealed the state tax on groceries• Produced the first Living Income Standard resulting in a Legislative

Study Committee and supporting a minimum wage campaign that was successful

• Established a State Earned Income Tax Credit• Secured a balanced approach to the budget shortfall during the Great

Recession• Maintained income taxes during prominent tax fight in 2013

We believe that facts matter &that facts must be accessible to make an impact.

THE POLICY OPPORTUNITY

IN THE SHORT RUN• A slow economic recovery characterized by too few jobs and

concentration of job growth in low-wage industries and occupations

• Persistent and concentrated economic hardship in certain regions of the state.

IN THE LONG RUN• A changing demographic with rapid urbanization and rural decline,

increasing diversity driven by a growing Latino population

• Ongoing transformation in the economy from manufacturing to service sector industries and a future of work that requires policy attention

Higher Productivity without Better PayPercent Change in Productivity and Hourly Compensation, 1979 to 2014

Majority of North Carolina Counties Still Have More Unemployed Workers than Job Openings

Durham County

Buncombe County

Catawba County

Iredell County

Moore County

Hertford County

Craven County

Swain County

Richmond County

Davie County

Lincoln County

Beaufort County

Sampson County

Brunswick County

Davidson County

Rutherford County

Yadkin County

Martin County

Polk County

Pender County

Washington County

Bladen County

Nash County

Madison County

Pamlico County

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Unemployed Workers Per Job Openings

Actual Unemployment Still Above 10%Unemployment Rate almost Doubles when “Missing Workers” are Included

Source: Budget and Tax Center Analysis of Local Area Unemployment Statistics, July 2015. For full methodology, see BTC Brief: Lack of Jobs Drives Exodus from Workforce in North Carolina

Jan-

08

Apr-

08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr-

09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr-

10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr-

11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

Jan-

12

Apr-

12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr-

13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr-

15

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Official Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate with Missing Workers

Source: NC Budget and Tax Center. “North Carolina’s Greatest Challenge: Widespread Struggles Remain a Grave Threat to Economic Growth and Us All.” April 2015.

Ten North Carolina counties experience persistent poverty.

Counties with poverty rates of 20% or higher for three decades

In 40 of 100 counties, the state is losing its working-age population.

North Carolina will be a majority minority state by 2050.

People of Color by Age in Each County shows the Demographic Shift Underway

1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-20120

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Ab

solu

te C

han

ge

in F

ore

ign

Bo

rn P

op

ula

tio

n

Immigrant population grows by 3,000 percent since 1960

The NC economy would have been $63 billion larger without racial gaps in income.

THE POLICY IMPACT

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

45-year average = 6.1% Final Budget Agreement = 5.2% in FY16 5.0% in FY17

State Spending as a Part of the Economy Will Keep Shrinking, Remain Below the 45-Year Average

Source: NCGA-Approved General Fund budgets via OSBM Post-Legislative Summaries and FRD Budget Highlights; FY15-17 budget deal; and BLS State Personal Income and Projections using 5-15 Consensus Revenue Forecast.

Total General Fund appropriations as a share of state personal income

'95

'98

'01

'04

'07

'10

'13

'16

'19

'22

'25

$0

$500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000

$3,000,000,000

SNAP Benefits StabilizeNorth Carolina SNAP Benefits, In millions

Source: Congressional Budget Office, 2007-2013 SNAP State Activity Reports.Note: Projections based off Congressional Budget Office Federal projections.

SNAP benefits received in NC more than doubled due to the recession. SNAP costs are expected to decrease and then stabilize as the economy improves. SNAP costs will only increase as the population increases.

Source: Moody’s Analytics

BUILDING AN ECONOMY THAT WORKS FOR ALL

TIPS ON USING DATA TO IDENTIFY THE POLICY OPPORTUNITY/ IMPACT

• Tell a story

• Provide descriptive visuals or use social math to make numbers concrete

• Use the fewest numbers to accurately present your findings

• Make the connection between the data and lived experience and policy solutions

www.ncjustice.org

Email me at:

alexandra@ncjustice.org

Follow us on Twitter at: @ncbudgetandtax