October 31, 20011 Metron Aviation, Inc. Dan Rosman Assessing System Impacts: Miles-in-Trail and...
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Transcript of October 31, 20011 Metron Aviation, Inc. Dan Rosman Assessing System Impacts: Miles-in-Trail and...
![Page 1: October 31, 20011 Metron Aviation, Inc. Dan Rosman Assessing System Impacts: Miles-in-Trail and Ground Delays.](https://reader036.fdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022082805/55154e2955034685568b53c2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
October 31, 2001 1
October 31, 2001Metron Aviation, Inc.
Dan Rosman
Assessing System Impacts: Miles-in-Trail and Ground Delays
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October 31, 2001 2
En-Route TFM Issues
• What Problems are we Trying to Solve?– Sector Congestion
– System Predictability and Results of Prediction Errors
– Flight Route Coordination
– Equitable Allocation of Resources
– Efficient Use of Resources
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October 31, 2001 3
Ground Delays and MIT Restrictions
• Ground delay programs and ground stops prevent airborne delays but may result in underutilization of arrival capacity because of changing demand
• Miles-in-Trail provides an airborne reservoir which may result in greater airborne holding costs and increase air traffic control workload
• Need some combination of strategic initiatives that is market driven and optimizes trade off between airborne holding and ground delay costs
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October 31, 2001 4
Ground Delays and MIT Restrictions
• There are currently 203 daily historically validated miles-in-trail restrictions
• On average, 186 dynamic miles-in-trail restrictions occur each day– 13.5 flights impacted by each restriction
– 8.5 flights affected for each hour that MIT restriction was in place
• In 2000, there were 1083 ground delay programs averaging 6.5 hours in length per program
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October 31, 2001 5
Approach
• NAS-Wide System Impact Assessment Tools are Needed– What impact does an en-route constraint have on the airport operation
(arrival, departure, surface)?
– What about surface constraints on the en-route operation?
– These impacts are significant and affect system performance
– TFM constraints impact equity
• Collaborative En-Route Flow Management Tool (C-Flow)– Prototype System Impact Assessment Tool is Currently Being
Developed
– Validated through quantitative analysis
– Validated through human-in-the-loop simulation
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October 31, 2001 6
C-Flow Concept
• C-Flow Provides Common Visualization of Flow Restrictions and Impacts
• Resultant airport flows• Sector counts• Airborne delay in sectors
• C-Flow Dynamically Updates Impact Predictions
• ATC Specialists Can Evaluate the Need for Restrictions
• Can a restrictions be dropped?• Are new restrictions needed?
• New Restrictions can be Planned by Evaluating the Predicted Impact on Flow Rates, Delays and Equity
30
20ORDGDP
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Upstream Effects of Traffic Management Restrictions
20
Delay BuildupFlow Shut-off
Airport GridlockGround Stop
ZOB48
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Cumulative Effects of Traffic Management Restrictions
Even Arrival Flow with GDP
20
20Slots Lost with MITs
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C-Flow GUI Display
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October 31, 2001 10
System Impact Analysis
• Using C-Flow, Analyzed LAX Traffic Management Program on May 1, 2001– Ground delay program initiated after host computer problems at
ZLA
– ARTCCs adjacent to ZLA also added miles-in-trail restrictions
– ZLA also assigned release times for internal departures
– Significant delays result• But some delay was unnecessary
• Excess unused capacity at LAX
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October 31, 2001 11
System Impact Analysis
• C-Flow Modeled Four Major TFM Elements:
– Ground delay program
– Miles-in-trail restrictions
– Internal departure release times
– Sequencing and separation of flights
• The Results Showed Good Correlation with Actual Operations
– An operational C-Flow could help avoid the under-delivery problem
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October 31, 2001 12
Simulation of LAX Event 5/1/2001Program 1630Z to 2359Z, LAX at 60/64 Arrivals per Hour
Bars show arrival sector loading and anticipated delay to be absorbed under simulated flow. Note the significant delay indicated (ZAB92).
MIT parameters based on actual restrictions applied
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October 31, 2001 13
Simulation of LAX Event 5/1/2001
Time1400 10 10
2 213 1211 35 11 35
1500 15 1313 715 1515 58 13 48
1600 15 1315 815 1113 58 8 40
1700 17 1015 915 915 62 13 41
Arrivals - MIT 60Arrivals - URS 60
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October 31, 2001 14
Current C-Flow Development
• Near Real-Time Infrastructure Under Development– POET database
• Allow trajectory predictions to be stored in database
• Compute sector entry and exit times for predictions
• Produce sector load metrics from predictions
• Trajectory Prediction (non-developmental item)– Integrate latest trajectory prediction software
– Collect and archive RUC2 wind data
• Graphical User Interface (developed as variant of GCDR)
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October 31, 2001 15
Future Development Phases
• Phase 1 – Predict and display traffic flows that result from miles-in-trail
restrictions obtained from the National Log Program• In downstream sectors and to airports
• Assist ATC specialists to determine if MIT restrictions are necessary
• Phase 2– Over/Under constrained decision support due to MIT and possibly
GDP restrictions• Provide automated alert if MIT restrictions
– are not enough to avoid excess demand downstream
– are more than necessary to avoid excess demand downstream
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October 31, 2001 16
Development Phases (cont.)
• Final Product: System Impact Assessment Tool– Assist ATC specialists in selecting between strategies:
• Re-routes
• Ground stops
• GDPs
• Sector GDPs
• Miles-in-trail
• Other initiatives
– Predict and display flow and equity of each strategy or a combination of strategies
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October 31, 2001 17
Evaluation Phases
• Shadow Operations and Evaluation– Analytical evaluations to assess sector demand prediction accuracy– Demonstrations to users to obtain subject matter expert feedback
• War-Game– Human-in-the-loop simulation of ATCSCC, TMU and AOC– Simulated evaluation of use of C-Flow for
• What-If evaluations of traffic management strategies• Communication of predicted congestion and delays to airlines
• Goal of War-Game– Validation of tool capabilities– Identification of missing capabilities– Validation/Improvement of user interface– Development of procedures for use of tool– Identification of methods for collaborative decision making
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October 31, 2001 18
Summary
• Air traffic community has a clear need for system impact assessment tools and analysis
• C-Flow is currently being developed to meet that need- Ground stop and ground delay models
- MIT model
• Current prototype needs to be expanded to incorporate other traffic management initiatives
• End product will allow user to evaluate tradeoffs between initiatives and arrive at efficient and fair allocation of resources that solve en-route congestion problems