October 26, 2004
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Transcript of October 26, 2004
October 26, 2004
Valassis — Connecting People to Brands™ 2
Safe Harbor Statement
Certain statements found in this document constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the Company to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, among others, the following: price competition from the Company's existing competitors; new competitors in any of the Company’s businesses; a shift in customer preference for different promotional materials, strategies or coupon delivery methods; an unforeseen increase in the Company’s paper costs; economic disruptions caused by terrorist activity, armed conflict or changes in general economic conditions; or changes which affect the businesses of our customers and lead to reduced sales promotion spending. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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Agenda
Overview
Favorable Macro Trends
Mass Products
Cluster Targeted Products
1 to 1 Products
International & Services
Financial Summary and Guidance
Summary
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Overview: What Do We Do?
We specialize in home-delivered promotion and advertising media
Our unique differences include: – a call to action– a responsive environment
“Connecting People to Brands™”
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• Coupon clearing (NCH Marketing Services)
• European operations (NCH)
• Sweepstakes/ security consulting (Promotion Watch)
• Valassis Canada
• Direct mail sampling/advertising
• Customized frequentshopper direct mail
• Customer relationship management software
• Internet-deliveredpromotions
Overview: Valassis Product Portfolio
• Newspaper-deliveredproduct sampling
• Newspaper polybag advertising
• Preprinted inserts
• Direct-to-doorsampling/advertising
• Co-op newspaper inserts (Free-standing Inserts)
• On-page newspaper advertising (ROP)
Mass(Markets)
Cluster Targeted(Neighborhoods)
1 to 1(Households) International & Services
Integrated SolutionsConnecting People to Brands™
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FSI 51%
Cluster Targeted
24%
1 to 16%
International & Services 9%
ROP10%
International & Services
9%
FSI 54%ROP6%
Cluster Targeted
27%
1 to 14%
Overview: Share of Revenue
2003*
First 9 Months - 2004
*NCH Marketing Services, Inc. was acquired February 13, 2003
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Specialty Retail15%
Franchise Food10%
Consumer Services
7%Grocery Retail*
5%
Other4%
Direct Marketers9%
Overview: Customer BaseOur customer base is strong, diverse and continues to grow.
% of Revenue by Customer Segment for 2003
Consumer Packaged Goods 50%
*Also includes Drug, Wholesale & Mass Merchants
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Overview: CustomersValassis does business with 80% of Advertising Age’s list of the 100 Leading National Advertisers.
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Favorable Macro Trends
Economic recovery drives new product development and increased marketing budgets
Push for ROI justification on marketing spending; our products perform exceptionally well
Broadcast fragmentation continues to be a challenge; marketers are looking for more effective alternatives to reach the masses
Dollars shifting to home-delivered promotional media
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Favorable Macro Trends
Consumer evasiveness toward unwanted ad messages
— “Do Not Call” registry and commercial blocking technology
— Cable and satellite radio
Private label brands increase power; national brands need to compete for price-sensitive consumers
Coupons driving strong results among high-profile CPG companies; competition will follow
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Mass Products
Products which provide mass market reach at a low cost
Co-op Free-standing Inserts (FSIs)
Run of Press (ROP)
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Mass: Free-standing Inserts (FSIs)
Mass reach at a low cost (nearly 60 million households)
86% of all CPG coupons distributed
Strong FSI industry unit (page) growth
Historical gross margins in the 40% range
High barriers to entry — Significant operating leverage related to media costs
— Long-term contracts
— Low-cost producer
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Mass: Free-standing Inserts (FSIs)
Two-player industry
Building upon low-risk price improvement
initiative; management cautiously
optimistic
2004 market share: approx. 46%
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Mass: Free-standing Inserts (FSIs)9 Month 2004 revenue: $376.7 million, down 1%
Guidance 2004 2005
FSI Revenue Relatively flat Down low-single digit percentage
Traditional Co-op FSI Circulation
58.5 million households
58.7 million households
Traditional Co-op FSI Dates
41 41
Custom Co-op FSI Dates(single customer FSIs)
Approx. 11 Approx. 12
FSI Cost of Goods Sold Relatively flat on a CPM basis
Up low-single digits, due to paper
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Mass: Run of Press (ROP)
Brokering of advertising space on behalf of newspapers
Continued expansion of customer base
9 month 2004 revenue: $70.2 million, up 67.5%
2004 guidance: revenue up approx. 80%— Changing fee structure for some contracts
— Improved operating margin dollars of 10% to 15% in question
2005 guidance: revenue up 5% to 10%
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Cluster Targeted Products
Includes preprinted inserts, polybag sampling & advertising and door hangers
Expanding customer base
9 month 2004 revenue: $182 million, up 6.4%
2004 guidance: revenue up less than 10% with margins improving
2005 guidance: revenue up 10% to 15%
Products targeted around geographic and demographic clusters at a neighborhood level
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1 to 1 Products
Direct Mail— Database-driven direct mail programs
Valassis Relationship Marketing Systems (VRMS)— Provider of loyalty marketing software for frequent
shopper data
PreVision Marketing— Direct marketing agency
Products and services that pinpoint individuals or households to build brand loyalty
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1 to 1 Products
Purchased Catalina Marketing’s Direct Marketing Services (DMS) business on 9/17/04
Relationships with retailers Q Kroger - Safeway
Q Food Lion - Albertsons
Q Winn Dixie
9 month 2004 revenue: $42.9 million, up 55.4%
2004 guidance: revenue up 45% to 50%
2005 guidance: revenue up 20% to 25%
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International & Services
NCH Marketing Services, Inc.
– Promotion information management products, marketing services and coupon clearing
– Operations in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Mexico
Valassis Canada
– Promotional products and services available in Canada
Promotion Watch
– Promotion and sweepstakes security consulting services
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International & Services
9 month 2004 revenue: $70 million, up 22.6%
2004 guidance: revenue up over 10%
2005 guidance: revenue up mid-single digit percentage
Continued testing of media products and services in Europe
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Financials: 2004 Guidance Revenue: driving toward $1 billion (up approx.
10%)
9 month 2004 revenue: $741.8, up 9.4%
Capital expenditures: $20 million
SG&A: up approx. 5%
Free cash flow: $82 million to $92 million
EPS range: $1.73 to $1.85
Quarter Projected
EPS Range Actual EPS
1 $0.44 to $0.50 $0.47 2 $0.44 to $0.50 $0.51 3 $0.37 to $0.43 $0.43 4 $0.38 to $0.44
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Financials: Balance Sheet
Cash position: $205.1 million as of 9/30/04
Net debt position: $68.6 million as of 9/30/04
Net debt/EBITDA: less than 1:1
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Financials: 2005 Guidance
Revenue: up mid-single digit percentage
Free cash flow: $90 million to $100 million
Capital expenditures: approx. $20 million
SG&A: up approx. 5%
EPS range: $1.80 to $2.00
Number of integrated solutions: approx. 75
A year of transition
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Financials: Alternative Uses of Cash
Future uses of cash will be determined at
December Board Meeting
Alternatives include:
Capital expenditures
Acquisition opportunities
Continued share repurchase (current authorization
of up to 75% of free cash flow)
Dividend
Debt reduction
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Summary
Macro trends will drive growth in home-delivered promotional media
Broad product portfolio uniquely positions us to offer integrated solutions
Cautiously optimistic about co-op FSI pricing environment
Cash flow and balance sheet are strong
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Questions?