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European refining competitiveness

October, 2015

Status October 2015

Tomorrow's Leaders SymposiumWorld Petroleum Council Youth of Europe

8th October 2015 Budapest, Hungary

2

Oil & gas remain critical for EU economy

Transportation

Industrial

Electricity

Generation

Res/Comm

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass

Other Renewables

EU Demand – By Section

Quadrillion BTUs

EU Demand - By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

3

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Refining converts oil into many products

Crude Oil Input

Diesel

Gasoline

Refinery

LPG / Propane

Gasoline

Chemicals feed

Wax/Asphalt

Lubes/Other

Fuel oil

Aviation fuels

Diesel

Refinery

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

4

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Refining converts oil into many products

Crude Oil Input

Diesel

Gasoline

Refinery

LPG / Propane

Gasoline

Chemicals feed

Wax/Asphalt

Lubes/Other

Fuel oil

Aviation fuels

Diesel

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

European refining industry is

important to energy security

6

EU transportation demand remains high

Light Duty

Aviation

Heavy Duty

Marine

Rail

Transportation Demand

MBDOE

ExxonMobil 2015 Outlook for Energy

7

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14

Gasoline Demand and Fuel trade OECD Europe (Mta)1

Mta

Mogas demand

Mogas exports: 37% of production (2014)

Jet+Diesel imports: 15% of demand (2014)

• Europe´s diesel demand continues to grow

• Growing commercial transportation

• Sustained passenger vehicles switch from gasoline to diesel

• Further decline in gasoline demand

• Favorable excise taxation led to ‘dieselisation’ of fleet

• Improved fuel economy of car fleet & biofuels impact

• Fuel oil demand declines

• Significant impact from Bunker Fuels Sulfur spec reduction (IMO)

Demand and regulations drive fuel imbalance

1 Source: IEA data for OECD Europe

• Fuel imbalance becomes ever more pressing issue for Europe

• Europe increasingly dependent on diesel imports from US, Middle East, Far East

• Challenge (and higher costs) to export growing gasoline surplus

• US shifting from significant gasoline importer to balanced situation

8

1 Western Europe and Med; Crude & Condy; Source: PIRA

• Excess global refining capacity

• New world-class export refineries in Middle / Far East

• Russian refinery exports shifting from feedstocks& heavy fuel oil to EU grade finished products

• US new competitors in EU Diesel market withlow energy & feedstock cost

• Leading to record low utilization of European refineries

Global supply patterns are hurting EU

Refining

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

1995 2000 2005 2010

Europe Capacity and Utilization 1

Capacity Actual runs UtilizationMBD %

9

• Energy is largest refinery operating cost

• EU refineries are world class in energy efficiency

• But faced with much higher energy cost than US

US refining industry has a competitive advantage

Energy cost as % of total cash cost 2

1 average prices from Nymex, ICE

2 Concawe study based on Solomon Associates data for industry averages Western Europe, United States

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

US

EU

1

EU refining is facing increasing rationalization

pressure

1 Western Europe and Med; Cumulative from 2009

Sources: ExxonMobil assessment based on public information

European refining industry is not

globally competitive due to

higher energy and labor costs,

global change in demand and

supply patterns, and severe /

increasing regulatory burdens.

12

EU regulations add significant costs

Source: Concawe, Report no. 11/14, The estimated forward cost of EU legislation for the EU refining industry

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

Baselineopex

ETS IED REACH RED SLFD(MFD)

Esti

ma

ted

co

st

to E

U r

efi

ne

rs (

$/b

bl)

2020Low cost scenario

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

Baselineopex

ETS IED REACH RED SLFD(MFD)

Esti

ma

ted

co

st

to E

U r

efi

ne

rs (

$/b

bl)

2020High cost scenario

13

• Encourage market conditions for access to energy and feedstock at a

competitive cost.

• Guarantee a level-playing field amongst cost effective technologies.

• Energy taxation should be consistent and proportional to the energy

content.

• Allow internal market forces to work: avoid interventions that distort

free competition of assets in a global environment. Any subsidies

would have the opposite effect of ensuring a competitive EU refining

market.

• The EU policy framework should not cause unnecessary extra cost for

the refining sector.

• EU policies should be transparent, predictable and market based.

Policymakers can help sustain a globally

competitive EU Refining industry

14

• Oil is and will remain essential for European economies for the

foreseeable future.

• The refining industry, which is an essential and integrated part of many

European industries, is no longer globally competitive.

• Europe´s regulatory environment affects the competitiveness of

European refining industry compared to other regions.

• EU refining is facing increasing rationalization pressure.

• Some level of domestic refining capacity is highly desirable for security

of energy supply.

• Allow market forces to work and avoid interventions that distort free

competition of assets in a global environment.

Summary