Oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections in the North Atlantic climate variability: observational...
-
Upload
mariana-ensign -
Category
Documents
-
view
221 -
download
4
Transcript of Oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections in the North Atlantic climate variability: observational...
Oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections in the North Atlantic climate variability:
observational studies and GCMs responses
Dpto. de Física de la Tierra I (Geofísica y Meteorología) Universidad Complutense de Madrid, UCM
África Barreto, Teresa Losada, Javier García, Irene Polo, Belén Rodríguez de Fonseca y Encarna Serrano
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, 14-15 Febrero 2005
Anomalous rainfall regimen in Iberian
Peninsula and NW Africa
Low frequency variability in North Atlantic
CICYT/CLI96-1843
Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM
Geopotential & temperature ERA15 (surface - 200 hPa)
- International meetings (EGS, Asamblea Hispano-Portuguesa Geodesia-Geofísica, Meteorology of the Milenium/Roy. Meteo. Soc, 2nd. Int. Conference on Reanalyses, Internatioal Meeting on Statistical Climatology)
- 3 conference proceedings
-Rodriguez-Fonseca B. Relación entre el Régimen Anómalo de Precipitación en la Península Ibérica y la Variabilidad del Sistema Climático en el Atlántico Norte, 2001. PhD Thesis.
Rodríguez-Fonseca, B. and E. Serrano, 2002:Winter ten-day coupled patterns between geopotential height and Iberian Peninsula rainfall using the ECMWF precipitation reanalysis J. Climate, 15, 1309-1321 .
Observed & ERA15 data
Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, 14-15 Febrero 2005
CICYT/CLI96-1843
-Rodríguez-Fonseca and Castro, 2002: On the connection between winter anomalous precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco and the summer subtropical Atlantic SST Geophys. Ress. Lett. 29, Nº 18, 1863, doi=10.1029/2001GL014421 2002
CICYT/REN2000-0770
Winter rainfall
Atmospheric predictorsstratosphere
Oceanic predictors
-Subtropical Atlantic SST
International Meeting: Chapman Conference on the NAO
Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM
Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, 14-15 Febrero 2005
Anomalous winter rainfall regimen in Europe/NW
Africa
North Atlantic SST anomalies
CICYT/REN2000-0770
MCYT/REN2002-3424
U. Delaware data (1ºx1º lat-lon) ERSST database (2ºx2º lat-lon)
90%
9 8%
9 5%
9 8%
9 0%
9 5%
> 0
< 0
99%99%
90%95 %98%
90%
99%98%95%
> 0
<0
SVD1 correlation maps (SST_JJAS, pt_NDJF )
Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, 14-15 Febrero 2005
- International meetings ( IAPSO-IABO, Asamblea Hispano-Portuguesa Geodesia-Geofísica, EGS)
- 2 conference proceedings
Connection between rainfall anomalies in winter and the previous subtropical North Atlantic summer SST anomalies, NAO-like precipitation dipole.
oceanic index SA: JJAS SST { 15ºN-25ºN-20ºW-30ºW }
potential predicting use for winter seasonal anomalous rainfall Evaluation of the North Atlantic SST forcing on the European and Northern African winter climate, 2004. Rodríguez-Fonseca, Polo, Serrano and Castro (accepted in Int. J. Climatol.)
Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM
Anomalous winter rainfall regime in
Europe/NW Africa
Subtropical North Atlantic previous
summer SST anomalies
CICYT/REN2000-0770
MEC/REN2002-3424
Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (2.5º x 2.5º)
Mid-latitude geopotential anomalies at low stratosphere are connected to subtropical SST 3 months before and propagate downwards in 2 months
Stratospheric bridge
ERSST database (2º x 2º lat-lon)
Lag (months)
hPa
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
r (SA_JJAS, Z) 35º-25ºW ;35º-45ºN
Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, 14-15 Febrero 2005
part of a MCYT project, announcement 2004-07
Anomalous winter rainfall in Euro-Atlantic region
CICYT/REN2000-0770
MEC/REN2002-3424
Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM
Forcing stratospheric
North Atlantic climate variability
Current studies
ERA40 Reanalysis (1.125º x 1.125º)
Large geopotential anomalies in the polar low stratosphere a few days before NAO extreme events propagate downwards and lead anomalies in the troposphere mean
Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, 14-15 Febrero 2005
-25-30 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 lag (days)
hPa
LOW NAO (DJF)Standarized geopotential anomalies over 70º-90ºN;-180º-180ºE
-25-30 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
lag (days)
hPa
HIGH NAO (DJF)
- International meetings (EGS, APMG)
- 1 conference proceedings
- Serrano and Rodriguez-Fonseca (2004), Revista Física de la Tierra.
Anomalous winter rainfall regimen in Europe /NW Africa
Subtropical North Atlantic summer SST anomalies
MEC/REN2002-3424
Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM
AGCM of UCLA
Physical mechanisms
- International meetings (EGU)
- Rodriguez-Fonseca, B., A. Robertson and R. C. Mechoso, 2005. The North Atlantic oceanic Internal Variability generating atmospheric circulation anomalies. Submitted to GRL.
Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, 14-15 Febrero 2005
1. Role of the Atlantic Ocean generating atmospheric circulation anomalies2. Sensitivity studies using prescribed SST in the Subtropical North Atlantic.
Collaboration with:UCLA (USA) Dr. C. R. Mechoso and Dr. Gabriel Caces Boeccio
- Polo, Losada and Rodriguez-Fonseca (2004), Revista Física de la Tierra. - Polo, I., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Sheinbaum, 2004. The Subsurface Subtropical North Atlantic role on the European climate variability (submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett)
MCYT/REN2002-3424
Subtropical Atlantic Ocean subsurface
temperature
European Climate variability
Collaboration with:CICESE (Mejico) Dr. Julio Sheimbaum and Dr. Julio CandelaLODYC (Paris) Dr. Alban Lazar
Subtropical Atlantic Ocean SST
International meetings (APMG,EGS)Conference proceedings
EC/AMMA-004089-2
African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (2005-20010)
Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM
UCLA AGCM
Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, 14-15 Febrero 2005
1. Study of the effects of SST anomalies of different oceanbasins on the west african monsoon (WAM) rainfall variability.
2. Identificaton of key WAM diagnostics/variables and predictands.
3. Teleconnection between WAM and the Mediterranean climate variability.
3. Intercomparison of models.
Geofísica y Meteorología, UCM
Seminario CLIVAR; Madrid, 14-15 Febrero 2005