Ocean - Proshutinsky/Haidvogel (CG Left Bay)

• What science questions exist for the arctic that are best answered with coupled regional models?

o process studies (see next slide; also polyna studies)

o reconstruction studies based upon control scenarios (e.g., ensemble of runs with a range of AO forcing, …)

o sensitivity studies (e.g., ecosystem response to melting ice, …)

o coupled response studies (e.g., coastal erosion, …)

o observational design studies (AON)

o model improvement studies

Wind- and Wind- and convection-convection-

drivendrivenmixing mixing

Wind- and Wind- and convection-convection-

drivendrivenmixing mixing

Heat contentHeat contentvariability variability and role of and role of

differentdifferentfactorsfactors

Heat contentHeat contentvariability variability and role of and role of

differentdifferentfactorsfactors

FreshwaterFreshwatercontentcontent

variability andvariability androle of differentrole of different

factorsfactors

FreshwaterFreshwatercontentcontent

variability andvariability androle of differentrole of different

factorsfactors

Reconstruction Reconstruction of hydrography of hydrography and circulationand circulation

based on based on modeling with modeling with

data data assimilationassimilation

Reconstruction Reconstruction of hydrography of hydrography and circulationand circulation

based on based on modeling with modeling with

data data assimilationassimilation

Atlantic water Atlantic water circulationcirculation

origin, origin, variability , variability , sense of sense of rotationrotation

Atlantic water Atlantic water circulationcirculation

origin, origin, variability , variability , sense of sense of rotationrotation

Investigation of Investigation of sea level rise: sea level rise: its rate, role of its rate, role of different factors,different factors,

model errorsmodel errors

Investigation of Investigation of sea level rise: sea level rise: its rate, role of its rate, role of different factors,different factors,

model errorsmodel errors

Process studies: ocean/ice

AtmosphericAtmosphericboundary layer boundary layer specifically for specifically for

stable stable stratification stratification

AtmosphericAtmosphericboundary layer boundary layer specifically for specifically for

stable stable stratification stratification

Atmosphere-ice-Atmosphere-ice-OceanOcean

interactionsinteractions

Atmosphere-ice-Atmosphere-ice-OceanOcean

interactionsinteractions

Atmosphere-Atmosphere-LandLand

interactionsinteractions

Atmosphere-Atmosphere-LandLand

interactionsinteractions

High resolutionHigh resolutionregional regional

atmosphericatmosphericreanalysisreanalysis

High resolutionHigh resolutionregional regional

atmosphericatmosphericreanalysisreanalysis

TroposphereTroposphereprocesses andprocesses and

Ozone roleOzone role

TroposphereTroposphereprocesses andprocesses and

Ozone roleOzone role

Turbulence Turbulence parameterizationparameterization

Turbulence Turbulence parameterizationparameterization

AtmosphereProcess studies: atmosphere

ModelModel improvements improvements

Restoring andRestoring andFlux correctionFlux correction

Atmospheric loadingAtmospheric loading

Vertical and lateralVertical and lateralmixing mixing

Tidal ocean & iceTidal ocean & iceeffectseffects

Bering Strait Inflow Bering Strait Inflow and river runoffand river runoff

Neptune effectNeptune effect

New advection New advection schemesschemes

Data assimilationassimilationtechnology

Vertical and Vertical and lateral resolutionlateral resolution

Forcing biasesForcing biases

Land-fast iceLand-fast ice

AOMIP/OCEAN/ICE

ModelModel improvements improvements

Cloud propertiesCloud properties

Arctic Haze and climatic Arctic Haze and climatic

effects of aerosolseffects of aerosols

Troposphere aerosols, Troposphere aerosols, clouds, water vaporclouds, water vapor

Precipitation and humidity fluxesPrecipitation and humidity fluxes

Convective plums due to leadsConvective plums due to leads

Surface turbulent Surface turbulent fluxesfluxes

Snow and ice albedo

Surface radiative Surface radiative fluxesfluxes

Stable boundary Stable boundary layerlayer

Cloud-radiation Cloud-radiation interactioninteraction

Atmosphere

Concerns Concerns

There are not enough observational There are not enough observational data for model initialization, forcing, data for model initialization, forcing, validation and assimilation.validation and assimilation.

A comprehensive AON is urgently A comprehensive AON is urgently needed to satisfy needs of both needed to satisfy needs of both observational and modeling observational and modeling communitiescommunities

o ice coverage / thickness (satellites)

o monitor strategic locations

o profilers

o bathymetry (IBCAO)

Ocean

What are the existing modeling and model validation efforts aimed towards answering these questions?

1. MIPs: SIMIP,ARCMIP, AOMIP (proposed), CARCMIP (status?), Southern Ocean MIP (?)

2. Global and regional models (independent validation efforts)

ChallengesChallenges

The major challenge of the MIPs is to improve The major challenge of the MIPs is to improve existing regional Arctic atmosphere, ice, ocean existing regional Arctic atmosphere, ice, ocean and terrestrial models and, respectively, global and terrestrial models and, respectively, global climate models:climate models:

This work is expensive and requires significant This work is expensive and requires significant financial and labor resources. financial and labor resources.

In order to develop a comprehensive arctic In order to develop a comprehensive arctic model it is necessary to involve the entire model it is necessary to involve the entire community of arctic researches including community of arctic researches including modelers and observers, scientists and modelers and observers, scientists and engineers from different disciplines. engineers from different disciplines.

• What model and model validation projects are on the horizon aimed towards answering these questions?

Ocean

o AOMIP proposal was submitted in November 2007

o OCMIP 3

o EcoMIP (US GLOBEC interested)

o DARWIN (self-organizing approach vs IBMs)

Table 1 AOMIP Project participants.

Institute, PI(s)Country Abbreviatio

nSupport type

Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, A. Makshtas Russia AARI B

Alfred Wegener Institute, R. Gerdes and C. Koeberle Germany AWI B

Florida State University, E. Chassignet and D. Dukhovskoy USA FSU A

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, S. Griffies, M. Winton USA GFDL B

Goddard Space Flight Center, S. Hakkinen USA GSFC B

International Arctic Research Center, B. Hibler, G. Panteleev USA IARC B

Institute of Marine Sciences, UAF, M. Johnson USA IMS A

Institute of Ocean Sciences, G. Holloway Canada IOS B

Jet Propulsion Laboratory, R. Kwok, A. Nguyen USA JPL B

Los Alamos National Laboratory, E. Hunke USA LANL B

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, C. Hill USA MIT A

Naval Postgraduate School, W. Maslowski USA NPS A

National Center for Atmospheric Research, M. Holland USA NCAR B

New York University, D. Holland USA NYU A

Norwegian Polar Institute, Ole Anders Nøst Norway NPI B

Ocean and Atmosphere Systems, M. Karcher and F. Kauker Germany OASYS B

Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, M. Maqueda UK POL B

Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, N. Yakovlev Russia RASM B

Russian Academy of Science, Novosibirsk, E. Golubeva Russia RASN B

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, M. Meir Sweden SMHI B

University College London, S. Laxon UK UCL B

University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth, C. Chen USA UMAS A

University of Washington, M. Steele, J. Zhang USA UW A

Woods Hole Oceanogr. Ins, A. Proshutinsky, P. Winsor, A. Condron

USA WHOI A

• What arctic science questions cannot be answered with limited area regional coupled arctic models?

Ocean

o any question where dynamic coupling between the global and regional models is strong

• What science questions are missing from existing efforts?

Ocean

o mass balance questions (e.g., what are land ice sheets doing? How is mass being rearranged in the ocean?)

o fate of fresh water inputs from (e.g.) Greenland.

o sea ice at high resolution (interactions with – e.g. – tides, mesoscale eddies, submesoscale, …)

o transmission/fate of eddy signals across non-uniform grids

• What human systems are relevant to the physical systems being addressed?  Are there existing models for these human systems?

• What are human systems?

Ocean

o ecosystems/fisheries

o navigation

o energy exploration

o coastal erosion

o national security

• What are reasonable boundaries on the ‘Arctic System’ for your area of research?

Ocean

o down to 58N, including: Bering Sea, Norwegian Sea, Barents Sea, Baffin Bay, etc. Sea of Okhotsk (?)