Ocean Leadership Members
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The Role of Science in a National Policy for the Oceans,
Coasts and the Great Lakes
Robert B. GagosianJuly 16, 2009
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Full Members (46/12) Associates (31) Affiliate (6)
Ocean Leadership Members
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National Ocean Policy
• Oceans are facing a myriad of perturbations not seen for millions of years, perhaps ever. The impacts on ecosystems and human society are enormous. Science must play a critical role informing wise policy and management decisions.
• “We will restore science to its rightful place” – President Barack Obama, January 20, 2009
• A national policy “established, guided and continuously validated by science” that ensures protection, maintenance, and restoration of oceans, our coasts and the Great Lakes.
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Role of Science in a National Ocean Policy
Wise Decisions Require The Best Science Available
In order to sustainably manage our ocean ecosystems, mitigate impacts from climate change and adapt to a rapidly changing environment, we need the capacity to predict and reduce the risks and vulnerabilities of future ocean scenarios:And that requires models based on sound science
which requires physical, biological & chemical datawhich are obtained from observations
• Remote (satellites, radar)• In Situ (buoys, autonomous vehicles,
vessels, stream & tide gauges)
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Key Climate Change Impacts
Three fundamental areas where scientific information is insufficient to accurately forecast the size, scope and time scales of changes occurring in the ocean include:
1. Changes in Ocean Productivity
2. Opening of the Arctic System
3. Forecasting Sea-Level Rise
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Changes in Ocean ProductivityOcean productivity is
being affected by changes to the physics, biology and chemistry of the ocean, with implications for CO2 uptake.
Changes driven by:• Acidification• Warming waters• Altered currents/upwelling• Influx of fresh water• Over-fishing• Aquaculture• Agricultural & urban runoff
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Opening of the Arctic
• Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change.Arctic is particularly sensitive to climate change.
• Loss of sea ice will have a huge impact on Loss of sea ice will have a huge impact on Earth’s energy budget and has tremendous Earth’s energy budget and has tremendous international implications.international implications.
• Poor understanding of ocean-ice interactions & Poor understanding of ocean-ice interactions & ability to accurately predict rate of glacial, ability to accurately predict rate of glacial, permafrost or sea-ice loss.permafrost or sea-ice loss.
• Lack of sufficient instrumentation for real-time Lack of sufficient instrumentation for real-time observations.observations.
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Sea-Level Rise• Could be 1 m or
more depending on ice sheet melt
• 0.5 meter rise translates into a 100 year flood occurring annually
• There will be further loss of protective wetlands & penetration of salinity into estuaries and coastal aquifers
• Economic and social disruptive impacts are tremendous
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Offshore Renewable Energy Development1. Wave2. Currents3. Tidal4. Thermal Conversion5. Wind
• All promising technologies – mostly in their infancy• Need for ecosystem assessments for facility siting• Overlapping and competing federal and state regulations
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Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning
Science can assist in development of sustainable management regimes for the future use of ocean and coastal resources.
• Identify existing uses, risk areas, and military exclusions
• Define current physical, chemical and biological parameters
• AND forecast future ocean conditions with new uses.
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Existing Framework for Ocean Policy
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Framework for Ocean Coordination Recommendations
• JSOST has facilitated science collaboration– e.g. Ocean Research Priorities Plan (being refreshed)– Need to update structure to meet emerging priorities
• NOPP has successfully managed and funded interagency science programs
• Budget integration/authority is the weak link– Need for enhanced role of OMB in the process– Need for integrated climate budget and corresponding
ocean budget
• Examples of inadequate coordination: climate research, ocean observations & oceans and human health research
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International Collaborations
The oceanic and climate change are global issues that cannot be addressed unilaterally. They also provide an opportunity to leverage resources, promote technology transfer and improve foreign relations.
• Satellites – Opportunities for collaboration/data sharing
• Arctic – Competing interests & claims on resources – yet shared need for research and monitoring
• Successful International Ocean programs include the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program and the Census of Marine Life
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Implementation Priorities1. Ocean Observing System
• Part of a climate/earth observing architecture
• Sustained remote sensing of ocean topography, sea surface wind vectors & ocean color
• In situ biological & chemical sensor development & deployment (e.g. pH)
• Particular need for Arctic observing system to monitor atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions
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Implementation Priorities
2. Ocean Acidification Program
• To monitor, understand and predict impacts on ecosystems
• pH sensors need to be developed and deployed in observing systems such as IOOS, OOI & Argo.
• Program to study ecosystem response to acidification.
• Investigate the interplay between ecosystems and biogeochemical cycling in an increasingly acidic ocean.
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Implementation Priorities
3. Large-Scale Marine Ecosystem Studies
• Emphasize ecosystem-based approaches to management
• Link coastal & offshore ocean and terrestrial watershed ecosystems
• Require core set of observing and modeling systems
• Need to focus on areas affected by urban processes
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Implementation Priorities
4. Need for an Integrated Ocean/Climate/Earth Observation System and Science Budget
• Existing patchwork of agencies and programs is insufficient to meet the growing demand for information.
• No single federal agency has the mission, ability or resources to develop, build and maintain the required architecture for a sustained, long-term, global climate observing and science system.
• OSTP needs the budget authority to develop, request and manage a dedicated climate/ocean observation system and science budget.
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Economic Impacts and Jobs
• Information is a commodity – there is a wealth of data in the ocean that has tremendous economic value.
• Exporting Technology – every nation requires the ability to acquire, integrate and disseminate environmental information and will make investments to access the required technology.
• Protecting lives, property and jobs – the ability to accurately forecast future conditions based on ocean parameters such as sea-level has enormous implications for building sustainable healthy communities.