Ocean Biogeochemistry & Air-Sea Carbon Exchange in an Evolving Climate

Scott DoneyJoe D. and Helen J. Kington Professor

in Environmental ChangeUniversity of Virginia

sdoney@virginia.edu

@ScottDoney1

AMS 2019 Annual MeetingInez Fung Symposium

Session 2 Future Biosphere and Climate

Ocean CO2 Uptake, Climate Warming & Ocean Acidification

Le Quéré et al.Earth System Science Data 2018

How effective will ocean CO2 sink be in future warmer world? How will warming & ocean acidification affect marine biogeochemistry & ecology?

Ocean removes ~1/4 of human CO2 emissions

Atmospheric CO2 build up contributing to global climate change

Ocean CO2 Flux & Net Uptake

Tans, Fung & Takahashi Science 1990

Bender et al. NOAA LSCOP Report 2002

Precursor for Global Carbon Project (GCP) & REECAP

1990: Air-sea DpCO2 data inconsistent with large Northern Hemisphere ocean sink

Tans et al. Science 1990

Present: Greatly improved pCO2 data & air-sea CO2 flux esTmates from Surface Ocean Carbon Atlas (SOCAT)

Landschützeret al. GBC 2014

Jul-Oct

Ocean CO2 Flux & Net Uptake

Tans, Fung & Takahashi

Science 1990

Bender et al. NOAA

LSCOP Report 2002

Precursor for

Global Carbon Project (GCP) & REECAP

Future: Integrate data from new autonomous ocean platforms (e.g., profiling floats) & reconcile air-sea CO2 flux

inconsistencies from ocean & atmosphere data and models

Gray et al. GRL 2018

Le Quéré et al. Earth System Science Data 2018

ocean BGC models

pCO2-data products

atmosphere inversions

Southern Ocean <30S

Ocean CO2 Flux & Net Uptake

Tans, Fung & Takahashi Science 1990

Bender et al. NOAA LSCOP Report 2002

Precursor for Global Carbon Project (GCP) & REECAP

Future: Combine air-sea flux & ocean CO2 storage data/ models to detect climate change signal from natural variability

Gruber et al. Ann. Rev. Marine Science 2019

Climate-Carbon Feedbacks

Doney et al.J. Climate 2006

Friedlingstein et al. J. Climate 2006

Fung et al. IGBP 2000

CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group

Fung et al. PNAS 2005

Thornton et al.Biogeosciences2009

2005: Pilot studies with Earth System Models that integrate active land & ocean carbon dynamics with climate

Lovenduski et al. GBC 2016

Present: Standard CMIP ESM analyses indicating climate reduces ocean uptake but ocean physics is larger uncertainty sensitivity of CO2 uptake

Climate-Carbon Feedbacks

Doney et al.J. Climate 2006

Friedlingstein et al. J. Climate 2006

Fung et al. IGBP 2000

CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group

Fung et al. PNAS 2005

Thornton et al.Biogeosciences2009

Schwinger et al. J. Climate 2014

Linear decomposition of cumulative ocean carbon inventoryDC = b DCO2

atm + g DT b (PgC/ppm); g (Pg C/K)

IPCC 2013

g

b

constant climate

warming climate

Climate-Carbon Feedbacks

Doney et al.J. Climate 2006

Friedlingstein et al. J. Climate 2006

Fung et al. IGBP 2000

CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group

Fung et al. PNAS 2005

Thornton et al.Biogeosciences2009

Lovenduski et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2016

Future: Quantify better ocean CO2 uptake mechanisms, climate sensitivity, sources of uncertainty & decadal predictability

Matt Long et al. unpublished

Climate-Carbon Feedbacks

Doney et al.

J. Climate

2006

Friedlingstein et al.

J. Climate 2006

Fung et al.

IGBP 2000

CCSM/CESM

Biogeochemistry

Working Group

Fung et al.

PNAS 2005

Thornton et al.

Biogeosciences

2009

Future: Expand scope of ESM to capture carbon cycle for

Land-Ocean Aquatic Continuum & coastal blue carbon storage

Regnier et al.

Nature Geoscience

2013

Ocean Iron & Biogeochemistry

CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group Fung et al.

GBC 2000

Moore et al. DSR II 2002a & 2002b

Boyd et al. Biogeosciences2008

2000: Using limited available field data quantify upper-ocean cycle of iron, key limiting micronutrient for phytoplankton

Fung et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2000Earth System Models with dynamic ocean biogeochemistry

Ocean Iron & Biogeochemistry

CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group Fung et al.

GBC 2000

Moore et al. DSR II 2002a & 2002b

Boyd et al. Biogeosciences2008

Future: Leverage new ecosystem models & rapidly expanding biogeochemical & plankton data syntheses: GEOTRACES trace elements; MAREDAT plankton functional types; genomics

Tagliabue et al. Nature 2017

Nutrients & Trace Metals

Earth System Models with dynamic ocean biogeochemistry

Ocean Iron & Biogeochemistry

CCSM/CESM Biogeochemistry Working Group Fung et al.

GBC 2000

Moore et al. DSR II 2002a & 2002b

Boyd et al. Biogeosciences2008

Bopp et al. Biogeosciences 2013

Future: Employ Earth System Models incorporaHng coupled plankton-biogeochemistry-carbon cycle-fisheries dynamics to address climate, deoxygenaHon & acidificaHon impacts

Earth System Models with dynamic ocean biogeochemistry

DSST DpH

DNPPDO2

Ocean Iron & Biogeochemistry

CCSM/CESM

Biogeochemistry

Working Group Fung et al.

GBC 2000

Moore et al.

DSR II 2002a

& 2002b

Boyd et al.

Biogeosciences

2008

Future: Employ Earth System Models incorporating coupled

plankton-biogeochemistry-carbon cycle-fisheries dynamics to

address climate, deoxygenation & acidification impacts

Earth System

Models with

dynamic ocean

biogeochemistry

Cooley et al. PLoS One 2015; Rheuban et al. PLoS One 2018

Integrated assessment model of U.S. Northeast scallop fishery

coupling biology, chemistry & socio-economics

Sco$ DoneyJoe D. and Helen J. Kington Professor

in Environmental ChangeUniversity of Virginia

sdoney@virginia.edu

@Sco@Doney1

Ocean Biogeochemistry & Air-Sea Carbon Exchange

in an Evolving Climate

Bonan & DoneyScience 2018

Vulnerability Impact Adaptation