Observing the Climate System – now and in the future · 22 Space-based CO2 and CH4 Measurements...

ObservingtheClimateSystem–nowandinthefutureProf. StephenBriggsChair,GCOSSteeringCommitteeDept.ofChemistry,CambridgeUniversity&Dept. ofMeteorologyReadingUniversity

Credit: Victor & Kennel, Nature Climate Change, 2014.

AtmosphereSurface

•Precipitation•Pressure•Radiationbudget•Temperature•Watervapour•Windspeedanddirection

Upper-air•Cloudproperties•Earthradiationbudget•Lightning•Temperature•Watervapour•Windspeedanddirection

AtmosphericComposition•Aerosolandozoneprecursors•Aerosolsproperties•Carbondioxide,methaneandothergreenhousegases•Ozone

Land

Hydrosphere•Groundwater•Lakes•Riverdischarge

Cryosphere•Glaciers•Icesheetsandiceshelves•Permafrost•Snow

Biosphere•Above-groundbiomass•Albedo•Evaporationfromland•Fire•Fractionofabsorbedphotosyntheticallyactiveradiation(FAPAR)•Landcover•Leafareaindex•Soilcarbon•Soilmoisture•Landsurfacetemperature

Anthroposphere•AnthropogenicGreenhousegasfluxes•Anthropogenicwateruse

Ocean

Physical- Surface•Oceansurfaceheatflux•Seaice•Sealevel•Seastate•Seasurfacecurrents•Seasurfacesalinity•Seasurfacestress•Seasurfacetemperature

Physical- subsurface•Subsurfacecurrents•Subsurfacesalinity•Subsurfacetemperature

Biogeochemical•Inorganiccarbon•Nitrousoxide•Nutrients•Oceancolour•Oxygen•Transienttracers

Biological/ecosystems•Marinehabitatproperties•Plankton

EssentialClimateVariables

ECV

Energy

Water Carbon

Albedo,Latentand

SensibleHeatfluxes,Land

SurfaceTemperature

SoilMoisture,River

Discharge,Lakes,

Groundwater,Cryosphere,Wateruse

SoilCarbon,Above-groundBiomass,Fire,GHGFluxes

RadiationBudgets,

TemperatureWindspeed&

direction

OceanSurfaceHeatFlux,Sea

Surface&Subsurface

Temperature,

Precipitation,Cloud

Properties,WaterVapour

SurfaceTemperature

SeaSurface&Subsurface

Salinity,SeaLevel,

SeaSurfaceTemperature

CarbonDioxide,Methane

InorganicCarbon

Sea Level RiseFisheries

DeforestationMitigationEcosystem Loss

TemperatureHeat waves

Coral Bleaching Agriculture

Human HealthFloods

DroughtsWater Resources

Storms

Ocean Acidification

Systemic RisksSecurity

Slow Economic Development

Und

erst

andi

nga

ndm

onito

ring

Clim

ate

Cycl

es

MonitoringcontributingtotheParis

Agreement&Global

Stocktake

Meancumulativemassbalanceofallreportedglaciers(blueline)andthereferenceglaciers(redline).SOURCE:worldglaciermonitoringservicehttp://wgms.ch/

Septembersea-iceextentfortheArctic,and(right)Septembersea-iceextentfortheAntarctic.Percentageoflong-termaverageofthereferenceperiod1981–2010(Source:preparedbyWMOusingdatafromtheUSNationalSnowandIceDataCenter)

Globallyaveragedmolefraction(measureofconcentration),from1984to2016,ofCO2inpartspermillion(left),CH4inpartsperbillion(middle)andN2Oinpartsperbillion(right).Theredlineisthemonthlymeanmolefractionwiththeseasonalvariationsremoved;thebluedotsandlinedepictthemonthlyaverages.(Source:WMOGlobalAtmosphereWatch)

Trendsinsurface(<50m)oceancarbonatechemistrycalculatedfromobservationsobtainedattheHawaiiOceanTimeseries (HOT)ProgramintheNorthPacificover1988–2015.SeawaterpH(blackpoints,primaryy-axis)andcarbonateionconcentration(greenpoints,secondaryy-axis).OceanchemistrydatawereobtainedfromtheHawaiiOceanTimeseries DataOrganization&GraphicalSystem(HOT-DOGS).(Source:USNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),JewettandRomanou,2017)

Globalmeansea-leveltimeseries(withseasonalcycleremoved),January1993–January2018,fromsatellitealtimetrymulti-missions.DatafromAVISO(Source:Collecte- Localisation-Satellite(CLS)– Laboratoire d’Etudesen Géophysique etOcéanographie Spatiales (LEGOS))

Globaloceanheatcontentchange(x1022J)forthe0–700metrelayer:three-monthlymeans(red),andannual(black)and5-year(blue)runningmeans,fromtheUSNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)dataset.(Source:preparedbyWMOusingdatafromNOAANationalCentersforEnvironmentalInformation)

Globalmeantemperatureanomalies,withrespecttothe1850–1900baseline,forthefiveglobaldatasets(Source:UKMetOfficeHadleyCentre)

MeanTemperature OceanAcidity AtmosphericCO2GlacierMassBalance

Arctic AntarcticSeaLevelChange

OceanHeatContent SeaIceExtent

GCOSencouragesDataRescue

GCOSCooperationMechanism

Argo is one core network, with Deep Argo in pilot mode.

GlobalRiverDischargeData

• Whileriverdischargeismeasured,insomepartsoftheworldriverdischargedataisnotroutinelyexchanged• MeasurementsanddataexchangearecoordinatedinternationallybyWMO• ThedataisheldbytheGlobalRunoffDataCentre(GRDC)inKoblenz,Germany

ArcticPermafrostMonitoring

www.swisseduc.ch/glaciers/

Glaciers distinctfromtheGreenland&AntarcticIceSheets

215,000glaciers·158,000km3 ·0.32mpotentialSLE

Farinottietal.(2019),NatureGeoscience

Annualglaciercontributionstosea-levelrise1961-2016

intro data methods results take home

Zemp et al. (2019)

GlobalΔM2011-16:-335Gtyr-1

about1mmSLEyr-1(3xremainingiceoftheAlps)

Shepherdetal,.Nature,June2018.

CPOM,Univ ofLeeds.

Maincontributionstosea-levelbudget2004-2015

intro data methods results take home

Glacier data from Zemp et al. (2019), other values from Cazenave et al. (2018), observed GMSLR: 3.5 mm per year

thermal expansion

glaciers

GreenlandIce Sheet

Antarctic Ice Sheet residuals

Thermal expansion + Ocean mass change

regional sea-level trends mm p.a.

22

Space-basedCO2 andCH4 MeasurementsProvideIncreasedCoverageandResolution

Spatially-resolvedestimatesofthecolumn-averagedCO2 andCH4 dryairmolefractions,XCO2 andXCH4,likethosefromNASA’sOrbitingCarbonObservatory-2(OCO-2)andJapan’sGreenhousegasesObservingSATellite (GOSAT)arelesspreciseandaccuratethanground-basedinsitudatabutprovidehighspatialandtemporalresolutionandgreatercoverageoftheglobe.

XCO2 measurementscollectedbyOCO-2inMay2016. PersistentspatialanomaliesinOCO-2XCO2 estimatesfor2015– 2018.YellowregionshavepersistentlyhighCO2.

ppmCO2

UNFCCC/COP25 Japan Pavilion Seminar 23

A System Approach for Atmospheric Inventories

Measurements Models Products

ESA UNCLASSIFIED - For Official Use NoRSC’19 | 18 Sept. 2019 | Slide 24

Aeolus: Atmospheric Dynamics

27 February 2019© ESA/ECMWF

Weak Polar Vortexseen from east (blue); from west (red)

Subtropical Jet seen from west

Subtropical Jet Streams seen from east (blue)

Polar Jet Streamseen from east

(blue)

m/s


BiomassMission Measure forest biomass and height

(200 m. pixel)

Payload P-Band radar

Orbit SSO, alt: 666 km; LTAN: 06h00

Satellite 1250 Kg

Consortium Prime: ADS-UK, Instrument: ADS-DE

Launch 2022


S-1

Radar

A3 Apr. 2014

B25 Apr. 2016

S-2

High Res. Optical

A23 Jun. 2015

B6 Mar. 2017

S-3

Medium Res. Optical & Altimetry

A16 Feb. 2016

B25 Apr. 2018

S-4

Atmospheric Chemistry

(GEO)A

2022

B2027

S-5P


(LEO)A

13 Oct. 2017

S-5


(LEO)A

2021

B2027

S-6

Altimetry

A2020

B2025

Sentinel Status

C2022/23

C2022/23

D> 2022/23

C2023

D> 2023

C> 2027

D> 2022/23

TheSentinel-3WorldFireAtlasrecorded79000wildfiresinAugust2019,comparedtojustover16000firesduringthesameperiodin2018.

GlobalfiresdetectedinAugust2018comparedtoAugust2019


Sentinel-5p and Sentinel-3: Amazon Fires

See World Fire Atlas at:https://s3worldfireatlas.esa.int/

See: Monitoring air pollution from fires


Sub-kilometric soil moisture (SMOS+S1 -500m)

www.satykut.com

April2016

May2016 June 2016 July2016

Aug.2016 Sept.2016

Oct.2016 Nov.2016 Dec.2016

Courtesy Al Bitar & Tomer

Monsoon

Monsoon

KarnatakaS.W. India

Observation,Infrastructure&InformationSystems

Weather,Climate,WaterandrelatedenvironmentalServicesandApplications

Sensing•ObservationoftheEarth

System

Networkandsystemoperators:e.g.nationalmeteorologicalservices,

satelliteagencies

DataRecords•PreparationofClimate

Datarecords•Archiving,•Reanalysis,•Productionoflong

datasets•Climateprojections

DataManagers,Modeler,Re-Analyses(ECMFW,

NCEP,DWD,JMA,Research,dataProviders,

etc.)

DeliveryofServices•Deliveryoftargeted

informationforspecificapplicationsortoinformdecisions

Servicecompanies&agencies,(Copernicus,ESRI,

GoogleMaps,nationalmeteorologicalservices)

DecisionMakingandImplementation• Implementactionsbased

ontheinformation

Nationalauthorities,insurancecompanies,

privatesector

GCOS

GCOSsupportsobservationsand

productionofclimatethedatarecordsthatunderpinclimate

servicedelivery,e.g.forweather,

hydrology,oceancryosphereandbiosphere.

Feedbackonuserneedsandgapsinobservationalanddatasystems

Before…Re a n a l y s i s d a t a a n d d e r i v e d p r o d u c t s

Rawmaterials

•ObservationoftheEarthSystem

• Satellitedata

• Insitu

• Ships/buoys/gliders

• Drones

• …......

Consolidationofdatasources- “wholesale

services”

• Wholesaledata

• Archives

• Reanalyses

• C3S,CMS,…G

DecisionMaking-thefamous“users”

- Government- Policy- Operational- Commercial- Security- Civilsecurity- SCIENCE- …...

I

Scienceinputs

GeophysicalModels

GeospatiallyReferenced

Continuousfieldsasoutput

f(x,y,z,t,,x0,x1…)

GeospatiallyReferenced

Statistical

Non-physicalData

LBS

Evolving citizen data collection

Election Pope Benedict XVI

Election Pope Francis

Examplesofremotesensingofresponsestoclimatechanges

Adelaide.SOURCE:modifiedCopernicusSentineldata(2017),processedbyESA,CCBY-SA3.0IGO

GroundwaterdepletioninSaudiArabia,GRACE

measurements

Overextractionbyagriculture

Expe

cted

Mor

talit

yle

adst

oAc

tions

to

cool

Citi

es

ECVsinclude:LandCover

LandSurfacetemperatureGroundwater

AnthropogenicwateruseAnthropogenicGHG

Mortalityincreaseswithaveragetemperature

Highresolutioncommerciallyavailablesatellitedatausedforurbanplanningandclimateadaptation– Jeddah,SaudiArabia

Observing the Climate System – now and in the future · 22 Space-based CO2 and CH4 Measurements...

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Transcript of Observing the Climate System – now and in the future · 22 Space-based CO2 and CH4 Measurements...