Observed Statewide Traffic Volume Patterns...recreation-based travel. Week two after the Stay Home...

Observed Statewide Traffic Volume Patterns: Related to COVID-19 Monitoring

May 8, 2020

Oregon Department of Transportation 355 Capital St NE Salem, OR 97301 888-275-6368 For questions contact Becky Knudson: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Oregon Department of Transportation May 8, 2020

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Introduction The purpose of reporting traffic volumes on the major state highways is to estimate the extent of compliance with stay-at-home directives aimed at eliminating non-essential travel and slowing the transfer of COVID-19. The information provided in this weekly report is based on traffic volume data collected by the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) from Automatic Traffic Recorder (ATR) stations along the following state highway corridors: I-5, I-84, I-205, I-405, US-97, US-197, US-20, US-26, US-30, US-395, OR-18, OR-22 and US-101. Data is used from 38 locations across the state highway system, a list of which is provided in Table A and Figure A in the Appendix.

Year-Over-Year Change in State Highway Traffic Volumes Year-over-year comparison is an effective way of evaluating current traffic volumes relative to the same period in the previous year. This approach removes the effect of seasonal patterns and reveals trends, while avoiding misinterpretation of short term volatility as a longer term trend. The year-over-year change compares current traffic data to the same day of the previous year.

Figure 1 presents statewide weekday and weekend averages by week, illustrating the lower volumes associated with COVID-19 social distancing, beginning with school closures implemented the week of March 16, 2020. The remainder of the report provides the detailed information behind these summary graphs.

Figure 1. Statewide Weekly Average Traffic Volumes


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Table 1 demonstrates highway user response to COVID-19-related directives for weekdays and weekends. The values provided in the table sum traffic volumes for ATRs across 13 corridors for years 2019 and 2020. This is a simple way to understand whether current traffic patterns are typical or measurably different. Changes in traffic volumes began in earnest mid-March, when schools were closed by executive order along with related restrictions for groups over 25 people and restaurants limited to take-out and delivery only. The most recent full week saw an average reduction of 29 percent in traffic volumes overall compared to the previous year. For the month of April, traffic began with 43 percent lower weekday volumes than 2019. By the end of April the difference changed to 29 percent below 2019 weekday volumes. As Oregon works through step-by-step phases of reopening, traffic volumes are expected to rise.

Table 1. Observed Year-Over-Year Difference in Traffic Volumes by Corridor

Date CorridorAverage

WeekdayAverage

WeekendAverage

WeekdayAverage

WeekendWeekday

DiffWeekend

DiffI-5 517,960 328,804 656,882 562,665 (0.21) (0.42)

I-205 202,741 121,366 262,471 217,961 (0.23) (0.44) I-405 99,899 55,948 142,360 109,866 (0.30) (0.49) I-84 302,183 206,654 357,887 326,080 (0.16) (0.37)

US 97 105,554 73,448 141,194 117,028 (0.25) (0.37) March 16-22, 2020 US197 2,456 2,078 2,763 2,168 (0.11) (0.04)

First week of school closures US20 19,199 16,087 23,631 12,045 (0.19) 0.34 US26 41,059 37,788 US30 9,289 7,685 11,234 10,669 (0.17) (0.28)

US395 22,703 16,184 27,541 20,955 (0.18) (0.23) OR18 13,603 13,623 17,195 24,298 (0.21) (0.44) OR22 24,708 17,380 29,600 23,260 (0.17) (0.25) US101 65,127 50,134 78,030 74,887 (0.17) (0.33)

299,856 193,067 376,059 324,060 (0.20) (0.40)

2020 Volumes 2019 Volumes

2019 data missing

Statewide Average

I-5 377,452 221,464 654,202 601,716 (0.42) (0.63) I-205 151,962 86,162 259,796 224,402 (0.42) (0.62) I-405 77,314 64,136 133,077 112,451 (0.42) (0.43) I-84 224,142 139,231 356,527 337,425 (0.37) (0.59)

US 97 86,299 55,226 146,581 125,016 (0.41) (0.56) March 23-29, 2020 US197 2,115 1,492 2,739 2,498 (0.23) (0.40)

First week of Stay Home US20 14,821 9,806 24,674 16,481 (0.40) (0.41) Executive Order US26 28,617 21,400

US30 6,441 4,287 11,286 12,304 (0.43) (0.65) US395 18,515 12,872 25,930 21,426 (0.29) (0.40) OR18 6,885 4,756 20,017 26,975 (0.66) (0.82) OR22 18,844 11,928 23,704 25,105 (0.21) (0.52) US101 43,518 26,684 85,605 80,047 (0.49) (0.67)

220,814 132,716 374,399 342,693 (0.41) (0.61) Statewide Average

2019 data missing


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Table 1 Cont’d. Observed Year-Over-Year Difference in Traffic Volumes by Corridor


WeekdayAverage

WeekendAverage

WeekdayAverage

WeekendWeekday

DiffWeekend

Diff


I-5 390,843 261,789 649,659 569,794 (0.40) (0.54) I-205 154,277 102,418 261,779 223,342 (0.41) (0.54) I-405 82,046 49,368 140,799 109,194 (0.42) (0.55) I-84 228,920 154,414 354,086 315,059 (0.35) (0.51)

US 97 99,637 67,511 150,803 120,485 (0.34) (0.44) April 6-12, 2020 US197 2,230 1,814 3,033 2,465 (0.26) (0.26)

US20 16,182 12,644 22,156 18,747 (0.27) (0.33) US26 30,909 26,078 47,531 45,707 (0.35) (0.43) US30 7,155 5,272 10,858 9,513 (0.34) (0.45)

US395 19,810 14,150 29,097 22,085 (0.32) (0.36) OR18 7,088 6,287 15,537 18,847 (0.54) (0.67) OR22 20,237 14,709 29,644 23,016 (0.32) (0.36) US101 45,104 30,600 74,882 64,793 (0.40) (0.53)


I-5 369,916 245,644 659,035 569,566 (0.44) (0.57) I-205 146,535 93,957 261,226 216,760 (0.44) (0.57) I-405 75,513 44,907 141,260 109,501 (0.47) (0.59) I-84 221,573 147,208 352,334 316,384 (0.37) (0.53)

US 97 90,487 90,602 150,075 117,144 (0.40) (0.23) March 30 -April 5, 2020 US197 2,215 1,591 2,853 2,223 (0.22) (0.28)

US20 14,853 11,008 23,061 18,080 (0.36) (0.39) US26 27,992 23,919 47,405 44,767 (0.41) (0.47) US30 6,563 4,873 11,897 10,365 (0.45) (0.53)

US395 18,793 13,629 28,467 22,114 (0.34) (0.38) OR18 6,481 5,512 15,853 18,489 (0.59) (0.70) OR22 18,591 12,417 29,591 22,142 (0.37) (0.44) US101 43,143 29,858 79,639 64,843 (0.46) (0.54)


I-5 410,433 288,998 664,177 565,304 (0.38) (0.49) I-205 163,143 111,233 264,577 224,294 (0.38) (0.50) I-405 80,969 41,807 142,950 108,818 (0.43) (0.62) I-84 240,886 167,120 359,003 322,016 (0.33) (0.48)

US 97 107,400 77,992 153,827 115,126 (0.30) (0.32) April 13-19, 2020 US197 2,381 1,973 3,136 2,639 (0.24) (0.25)

US20 17,190 13,565 23,704 20,572 (0.27) (0.34) US26 32,534 27,568 48,948 50,349 (0.34) (0.45) US30 7,579 5,778 11,344 12,026 (0.33) (0.52)

US395 20,971 15,999 28,855 20,729 (0.27) (0.23) OR18 7,781 6,703 16,082 20,994 (0.52) (0.68) OR22 21,494 15,352 30,316 24,345 (0.29) (0.37) US101 45,610 32,868 77,022 69,800 (0.41) (0.53)



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Table 1 Cont’d. Observed Year-Over-Year Difference in Traffic Volumes by Corridor


WeekdayAverage

WeekendAverage

WeekdayAverage

WeekendWeekday

DiffWeekend

Diff


I-5 451,978 NA 608,194 NA (0.26) NAI-205 177,995 NA 245,762 NA (0.28) NAI-405 77,948 NA 127,615 NA (0.39) NAI-84 263,912 NA 346,189 NA (0.24) NA

US 97 121,296 NA 143,011 NA (0.15) NAMay 4-6, 2020 US197 2,485 NA 3,077 NA (0.19) NA

(partial week Mon-Wed) US20 18,808 NA 23,784 NA (0.21) NAUS26 34,919 NA 50,029 NA (0.30) NAUS30 8,188 NA 11,629 NA (0.30) NA

US395 22,666 NA 25,810 NA (0.12) NAOR18 8,239 NA 17,548 NA (0.53) NAOR22 23,505 NA 28,905 NA (0.19) NAUS101 53,388 NA 75,122 NA (0.29) NA

263,365 NA 353,816 NA (0.26) NAStatewide Average

I-5 420,912 310,521 665,843 584,494 (0.37) (0.47) I-205 164,015 118,272 267,716 231,684 (0.39) (0.49) I-405 70,178 46,170 142,851 112,453 (0.51) (0.59) I-84 243,833 179,816 357,507 328,182 (0.32) (0.45)

US 97 110,204 83,402 156,015 125,074 (0.29) (0.33) April 20-26 2020 US197 2,410 2,125 3,216 2,916 (0.25) (0.27)

US20 17,098 14,321 24,111 22,152 (0.29) (0.35) US26 32,518 30,027 49,234 51,176 (0.34) (0.41) US30 7,595 6,275 11,487 12,145 (0.34) (0.48)

US395 20,705 16,337 28,011 20,920 (0.26) (0.22) OR18 7,575 7,245 16,510 21,830 (0.54) (0.67) OR22 21,573 16,573 30,999 25,908 (0.30) (0.36) US101 45,587 37,308 78,558 75,408 (0.42) (0.51)


I-5 446,607 323,187 631,494 648,539 (0.29) (0.50) I-205 174,749 118,800 254,777 260,408 (0.31) (0.54) I-405 75,317 46,721 132,908 135,104 (0.43) (0.65) I-84 260,389 184,485 349,992 362,551 (0.26) (0.49)

US 97 118,730 88,139 147,277 151,821 (0.19) (0.42) April 27-May 3, 2020 US197 2,543 2,151 3,101 3,287 (0.18) (0.35)

US20 18,652 14,459 23,484 25,233 (0.21) (0.43) US26 35,079 29,926 48,798 55,809 (0.28) (0.46) US30 8,215 6,236 11,671 12,710 (0.30) (0.51)

US395 22,427 17,340 25,136 26,557 (0.11) (0.35) OR18 8,247 7,300 16,943 22,541 (0.51) (0.68) OR22 21,224 16,596 29,264 31,483 (0.27) (0.47) US101 52,177 38,488 76,231 84,528 (0.32) (0.54)



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Observed Change in Total Traffic Volumes March 16 - May 6, 2020 Observing traffic volumes since mid-March reveals the day-to-day aggregate travel response to COVID-related restrictions. Figure 2 illustrates day-to-day change in traffic volumes on 13 major corridors by indexing all days to volumes on Monday, March 16th. This enables direct comparison of patterns side-by-side across the entire state. Generally speaking, there was a downward trend the first week across all corridors, ending with a rise in traffic volumes on Friday March 20th for US-97, US-197, US-26, US-30 and US-20. Weekend traffic volumes dropped by 20 to 40 percent with the exception of US-26 and OR-18. The March 23rd executive order initiated further decreases in traffic volumes that week, where volumes declined 25 to 30 percent, with the exception of US-97 and US-197. Larger reduction in travel is occurring on weekends, where trips are dominated by non-essential household travel.

Week one of the Stay Home order compared to the previous week reveals further decreases in traffic volumes. The largest decreases occurred on OR-18, US-26, US-20, US-30 and US-101, which see high use for commute and recreation-based travel. Week two after the Stay Home order reveals further decreases in traffic volumes in I-5, I-205, I-405, and I-84. US-97 and US-197 saw small increases in traffic volume relative to the previous week, likely related to rising truck freight movement. Volumes remained steady since then throughout April for most corridors.

Figure 3 and Figure 4 separate the corridors into two groups to better reveal detailed patterns. Figure 3 illustrates day-to-day change for I-5, I-205, I-405, I-84, US-97 and US-197. All of these highway volumes have remained lower than mid-March, with the exception of US-97 and US-197. Initially, US-97 volumes began to increase on Friday April 3rd, with the following week higher on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Since the week beginning Monday April 13th, weekday volumes have been higher than those of mid-March, but remain about 19 percent below 2019 levels. US-197 volumes for Friday April 17th were nearly 20 percent higher than mid-March, the following Friday had similarly higher volumes as well. However, total volumes for this location are relatively low, March 16th volume was 2,400 and April 17th was 2,842. Seasonal patterns for US-197 begin to trend upward in April, so it will be important to be aware of seasonal increase versus change due to COVID-19 reduced travel, which is accounted for in Table 1 using year-over-year comparisons. Figure 4 illustrates day-to-day change for US-26, US-30, US-395, OR-18, OR-22 and US-101. These highways have consistently been below March 16th levels, with the exception of the March 20th and 21st. US-395 volumes were about 4 percent higher than March 16th on May 1st, which was a Friday and payday for many people. Traffic monitoring will continue in the future as restrictions are reduced over time.


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Figure 2. Daily Change in Corridor Traffic Volumes Indexed to Monday March 16, 2020


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Figure 3. Daily Change in Traffic Volumes Indexed to Monday March 16, 2020: Interstate, US-97 and US-197

Figure 4. Daily Change in Traffic Volumes Indexed to Monday March 16, 2020: Non-Interstate Corridors


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Observed Heavy Truck Patterns COVID-19 restrictions and global impacts to trade between nations influence the flow of freight in Oregon. Seventy percent of Oregon freight moves by truck, so looking at truck patterns by weight will reveal the net impact of these contrasting market forces. Freight originating from other countries, such as China, declined as quarantines were put into place and factories closed. Some domestic freight declined as Oregon businesses stopped or reduced activity. However, some domestic freight increased, providing goods needed to support essential activity, such as medical supplies, groceries and e-commerce.

Ideally, robust freight analysis would evaluate the flow of goods by commodity type, for example paper towels vs. car stereos. However, this level of detail is unavailable. For the last several reports information on total tonnage passing weigh-in-motion scales was used to monitor truck freight, but the information did not reveal any discernable patterns to support the analytical process. For this reason, the tonnage data will no longer be monitored for this specific report.

In order to monitor truck freight movement, traffic volume data were used from 28 ATR locations capable of classifying vehicles by length. Table B in the Appendix provides the list of ATRs used to evaluate heavy truck volumes relative to light and medium sized vehicles. Light vehicles are less than 20 feet long, typically composed of passenger vehicles, pick-ups, SUVs, and mini-vans. Medium vehicles are between 20 and 35 feet long, typically a mix of large passenger vans, cargo vans, large pickups, RV’s, utility trucks, single-unit 2-axle trucks, and other medium commercial trucks. Heavy vehicles are over 35 feet long and typically include trucks with 3-axles or more.

Figure 5 illustrates how the proportion of vehicles by size has changed since the beginning of March. Before COVID-19 social distancing actions were implemented, heavy trucks made up about 12 percent of overall traffic. As COVID mandates were put into place, light vehicle traffic declined and the share of heavy traffic increased, as illustrated in Figure 5. Figure 6 illustrates heavy truck volumes since early March, with an added trend-line showing a downward trend and the weekly variation in volumes, illustrating an 18 percent decline between week 1 and week 9. Figure 7 illustrates medium vehicle volumes showing a downward trend over the last 9 weeks, but the trend line is flattening out. Volumes last week are very close to volumes mid-March. The overall decline between week 1 and week 9 is 21 percent. Figure 8 illustrates light vehicle volumes continuing to show the largest downward trend over the last 8 weeks, which is a 39 percent decline since week one.


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Figure 5. Share of Total Traffic Volumes by Vehicle Size

Figure 6. Heavy Vehicle Traffic Volumes


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Figure 7. Share of Medium Traffic Volumes

Figure 8. Share of Light Traffic Volumes


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Observed Change in Travel Time Reliability As traffic volumes decline, congestion declines, reliability and travels speeds increase. Table 2 reports the weekday afternoon peak period travel speeds for each week in March and April for corridors in the Portland Metropolitan region. Since mid-March most speeds are close to or at posted speeds for these six corridors.

Table 2. Average Weekday Afternoon Peak Travel Speeds

Table 3 reports the percent change in travel speeds relative to the previous week. The second week of March saw some impact to travel speeds, but the third week when the Stay Home order was initiated, average afternoon peak period speeds increased 14 to 68 percent across these 6 corridors. Since then, speeds have remained stable at free-flow speeds.

Table 3. Percent Change in Travel Speeds from Previous Week

Table 4 presents percent change in average weekday speeds indexed to the first week in March, illustrating how speeds have changed over time relative to the first week in March. Similar to the patterns seen in Table 4, speeds increased the most mid-March after social distancing policies were put into place, with the largest changes occurring on I-5, I-205, I-405, and OR-217. Continued monitoring reveals speeds are steady at free-flow levels across these corridors in the Portland region.

NB SB NB SB NB SB EB WB EB WB NB SBMarch 1-7 33 38 36 43 35 29 45 51 41 50 42 38March 8-14 35 42 40 53 34 32 46 49 43 54 48 38March 15-21 46 60 61 62 55 53 56 62 61 62 60 60March 22-28 60 60 62 62 51 56 60 61 61 62 61 61March 29-April 4 60 61 63 63 49 57 61 62 60 63 61 61April 5-11 60 61 62 62 50 57 61 63 61 62 61 62April 12-18 58 61 61 62 56 57 61 62 61 62 56 61April 19-25 60 61 62 62 56 54 59 62 60 62 60 60

WeekI-5 I-205 I-405 I-84 US-26 OR217

NB SB NB SB NB SB EB WB EB WB NB SB

March 8-14 6% 11% 10% 21% -2% 9% 2% -4% 6% 9% 14% 0%March 15-21 30% 42% 52% 18% 62% 68% 23% 25% 41% 14% 27% 61%March 22-28 31% 0% 2% -1% -8% 6% 6% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2%March 29-April 4 0% 2% 2% 1% -3% 0% 2% 2% -1% 1% 0% 0%April 5-11 0% 0% -1% -1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% -1% 0% 0%April 12-18 -3% 0% -2% 0% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -8% -1%April 19-25 3% 0% 1% -1% 0% -5% -4% 0% -2% -1% 8% -1%

Week I-5 I-205 I-405 I-84 US-26 OR217


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Table 4. Overall Percent Change in Average Weekday Speeds since Early March 2020

As traffic volumes decline, congestion is reduced and travel speeds rise to posted speeds. Figure 9 illustrates how afternoon peak period travel times have changed across corridors in the Portland region since March 16th. The week before the March 23rd Stay Home mandate congestion began to decline. By the week of March 23rd, travel speeds are reliable and congestion levels low to moderate on most corridors, with the exception of I-5 that had a small spike on March 17th. Portland interstate highway speeds are now reliable and steady at or very near to posted speeds. Incidents where speeds dropped are associated with lane closures, which reduces capacity and creates a temporary bottleneck.

ODOT is currently shifting from one data provider to another. These tables will not be updated and expanded until we have full access to creating speed summaries seen in this section of the report.

NB SB NB SB NB SB EB WB EB WB NB SBMarch 1-7 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%March 8-14 6% 11% 10% 21% -2% 9% 2% -4% 6% 9% 14% 0%March 15-21 38% 57% 68% 44% 59% 83% 26% 21% 50% 23% 45% 60%March 22-28 81% 58% 71% 42% 46% 93% 33% 20% 49% 24% 46% 63%March 29-April 4 80% 60% 74% 44% 42% 94% 37% 22% 48% 25% 47% 63%April 5-11 81% 60% 72% 43% 44% 96% 37% 22% 50% 24% 46% 63%April 12-18 75% 60% 68% 43% 63% 96% 37% 22% 50% 25% 35% 61%April 19-25 80% 60% 70% 42% 75% 80% 31% 22% 48% 24% 45% 60%

WeekI-5 I-205 I-405 I-84 US-26 OR217


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Figure 9. Afternoon Peak Period Travel Times Indexed to Monday March 23, 2020


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Appendix

Table A. Automatic Traffic Recorder Locations

ATR Number

ATR Name Route ODOT Highway Number

Mile Point

County

03-016 Stafford I-205 064 0.76 Washington 26-024 Glenn Jackson Bridge I-205 064 25.50 Multnomah 26-027 Fremont Bridge I-405 061 3.05 Multnomah 03-011 Wilsonville I-5 001 281.20 Clackamas 10-005 Roseburg I-5 001 130.15 Douglas 15-019 Medford Viaduct I-5 001 28.33 Jackson 20-020 Martin Creek I-5 001 170.25 Lane 20-025 Eugene-Glenwood I-5 001 190.92 Lane 22-005 North Albany I-5 001 234.8 Linn 26-004 Interstate Bridge I-5 001 307.97 Multnomah 26-016 Iowa Street I-5 001 298.24 Multnomah 23-014 Snake River I-84 006 376.98 Malheur 26-014 Hoyt I-84 002 3.35 Multnomah 26-028 Fairview I-84 002 11.45 Multnomah 30-004 Pendleton I-84 006 203.34 Umatilla 33-001 Rowena I-84 002 75.93 Wasco 13-003 Hines US20 007 126.60 Harney 21-006 Burnt Woods US20 033 34.24 Lincoln 22-013 Waterloo US20 016 19.05 Linn 09-003 Lava Butte US97 004 142.41 Deschutes 09-007 Bend-Empire US97 004 135.95 Deschutes 09-020 Redmond US97 004 124.39 Deschutes 16-002 Madras US97 004 97.11 Jefferson 18-006 Chemult US97 004 204.65 Klamath 18-019 Midland US97 004 289.44 Klamath 33-005 Dufur US197 004 10.30 Wasco 16-006 Warm Springs US26 053 113.17 Jefferson 26-003 Gresham US26 026 14.36 Multnomah 34-005 Timber Junction US26 047 37.60 Washington 05-006 Rainier US30 092 53.33 Columbia 30-008 South Pendleton US395 028 1.77 Umatilla 27-001 Valley Junction OR18 039 23.23 Polk


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24-004 North Santiam OR22 162 2.82 Marion 04-001 Gearhart US101 009 15.90 Clatsop 06-009 Coos Bay US101 009 244.02 Coos 08-009 Port Orford US101 009 301.45 Curry 21-008 D River Wayside US101 009 114.91 Lincoln 21-009 North Newport US101 009 139.11 Lincoln

Table B.

0-20 feet (light)

20-35 feet (medium)

35-61 feet (heavy)

61+ feet (heavy)

03-011 09-003 15-019 20-020 23-014 30-00403-016 09-007 16-002 20-025 24-004 33-00104-001 09-020 16-006 21-006 26-004 33-00505-006 10-005 18-018* 22-005 26-014 34-005*06-009 13-003 18-019 22-013 27-001 34-010*08-009

Length Classifying Automatic Traffic Recorder Location ID Numbers

* not included in 38 statewide traffic volume monitoring locations

Length Bins


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Figure A. Location Map for Automatic Traffic Recorders

Observed Statewide Traffic Volume Patterns...recreation-based travel. Week two after the Stay Home...

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