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Transcript of Oaverview of IPCC reports Kyoto, Copenhagen, Russia’s & America’s Role, IPCC Reports etc. June...
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Oaverview of IPCC reportsOaverview of IPCC reports
Kyoto, Copenhagen,Kyoto, Copenhagen,RussiaRussia’’s & Americas & America’’s Role, s Role,
IPCC Reports etc.IPCC Reports etc.
June 2, 2014June 2, 2014
Return to Home Page
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IPCC - WGI
Source: Thompson et al. 2008.
ENSO = El Nino/Southern Oscillation
COWL= cold ocean, warm land
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IPCC - WGI
Source: Thompson et al., 2008.
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IPCC - WGI Source: Thompson e tal., 2008.
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Observed Vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860
IPCC
Observed vs. modeled temperature riseObserved vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860since 1860
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Computer Model Comparison of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing (red) vs. Only Natural Forcing (blue)
Figure 10.31
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IPCC - WGI
Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
Anthropogenic warming is likely discernible on all inhabited continents
Observed
Expected for all forcings
Natural forcing only
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1000Years
of CO2 and
Temperatures
Figure 10.29
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Fig. 10.28 Global temperature trends, 1880-2003Annual & five-year means, the 0 baseline represents the 1951-1980 global average - which is 14ºC (52.2ºF).
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INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group I
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Temperature trends
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Temperature AnomaliesFigure 10.30
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10,000 Years of Greenhouse
Gases
Figure 10.32
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Figure 10.34
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What’s in the pipeline and what could comeWarming will increase if GHG increase. If GHG were kept fixed at current levels, a committed 0.6°C of further warming would be expected by 2100. More warming would accompany more emission.
1.8oC = 3.2oF
2.8oC = 5.0oF
3.4oC = 6.1oF
CO2 Eq
850
600
4000.6oC = 1.0oF
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Surface Temperature Projections
Figure 10.35
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Changing winds, temperatures Changing winds, temperatures and storm tracksand storm tracks
• Anthropogenic forcing Anthropogenic forcing has has likelylikely contributed contributed to circulation changes to circulation changes (storm tracks, winds (storm tracks, winds and temperature and temperature patterns)patterns)
• Warmer, wetter Warmer, wetter winters in Norway; winters in Norway; drier in Spain (and drier in Spain (and North Africa)North Africa)
Source: IPCC 2007, Working Group 1, AR4 (Assessment Report 4).Source: IPCC 2007, Working Group 1, AR4 (Assessment Report 4).
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A1B is a typical “business as usual” (2090-2099) scenario: Global mean warming 2.8oC;
Much of land area warms by ~3.5oCArctic warms by ~7oC; would be less for less emission
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
New in AR4: Drying in much of the subtropics, more rain in higher latitudes, continuing the broad pattern of rainfall changes already observed.
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Emissions & StabilizationWedges