Oak Ridge National Laboratory - US Department of … · OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY U. S....

OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

Oak Ridge National Laboratory

David L. GreeneEngineering Science and Technology Division

Paul N. LeibyEnvironmental Sciences Division

Juan FerradaNuclear Science and Technology Division

DOE Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and Infrastructure Technologies Program

Systems Analysis WorkshopJuly 28-29, 2004

Washington, D.C.

2


Charter• The Engineering Science and Technology Division, National

Transportation Research Center conducts engineering and analytical R&D for DOE, other federal sponsors and the private sector.

• The Environmental Sciences Division conducts interdisciplinary research, develops technology, and performs analyses to understand and assess responses to global and regional change, environmental stress, and resource use.

• TPP carries out research, modeling and analysis for DOE and other federal sponsors.− DOE – Modeling and analysis of fuel economy standards, Transition

Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Model, Refinery Impacts Modeling for reformulated fuels, costs of oil dependence, SPR optimization.

− EIA – Model development for NEMS Transportation Sector − DOD – Airlift Deployment Analysis System, Defense Logistics− DOT – Modeling, Forecasting and Analysis of Freight Flows, Vehicle

Travel Forecasting, Traffic Simulation and Optimization

3


History

• ORNL’s Transportation Energy Group began modeling and analysis R&D in 1980.

• Transition Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Model: Analysis of EPACT alternative fuels targets, expanded private fleet rulemaking.

• World Energy Scenarios Model: DOE/NRCanada2050 Study.

• NEMS Alternative Fuel Vehicle Choice Model: currently incorportated in NEMS.

• We are relatively new to hydrogen, having begun our transition in 2002.

4


Transportation policy and planning continues a 25-year research program at ORNL.

• Energy Policy Analysis− Fuel Economy Policy Analysis− Oil Dependence Analysis− Greenhouse Gas Mitigation− Fuel Economy Information Program (Clean Cities)− Hydrogen Transition (HYTRANS) Model− Hydrogen Education and Outreach

• Planning and Operations− Solving Defense Logistics and Problems Since 1982− Travel and Traffic Modeling− Freight data and freight activity modeling− Transportation security analysis− Safety studies

5


We have developed and implemented methods forestimating the economic costs of oil dependence.

OIl Price and Economic Growth, 1970-2001

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

1999

$ p

er B

arre

l

GDP GrowthOil Price

“…at least the last three recession periods in the United States – those of 1990-91, 1980-82 and 1974-75 – were preceded by spikes in the price of oil.” Alan Greenspan, June 28, 2001

6


Using world energy scenarios and methods of risk analysis, we have analyzed the timing of the peaking of conventional oil supplies and a transition to unconventional supplies.

P e a k Y e a r o f R O W C o n v e n t io n a l O ilP ro d u c tio n : R e fe re n c e /U S G S

0 .0 00

0 .0 20

0 .0 40

0 .0 60

0 .0 80

0 .1 00

0 .1 20

0 .1 40

Mean=2022.669

2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 02 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0

5% 85.87% 9.13% 2 0 1 6 2 0 2 8

Mean=2022.669

7


Under median assumptions, unconventional oil production must expand rapidly after 2020.

W orld Oil Production from Conv entional and Unconv entional Resources: Reference/USGS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GTO

E

Change vs . ScenarioShale O ilHeavy+Bitum enConventional ME AConventional RO W

8


Even with a global transition to unconventional oil resources, the Middle East could maintain a dominant position through 2050.

Middle East Share of W orld Conventional and Unconventional Oil Reserves, Resources and P roduction:

Reference/USGS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mid

dle

East

& N

. Afri

ca S

hare

Proved Conv. Reserves"Conv. Production"Total ReservesTotal Production

9


JFAST

ADANS

WPS

SAIL

ALRMOSCAR

STRADSTOPS

IBS

SEASTRAT

TCACCISWHISTMOD

ALP

ORNL has been developing transportation and logistics systems for DOD since 1982.

SCMMICLOG

MOBCON

ORNIM

10


Developer of the AMC Deployment Analysis System (ADANS)

• Operational in early 1990 planning and scheduling worldwide airlift for DoD

• Scheduled the largest airlift in history (DESERT STORM)

• Scheduling algorithms, centralized database, and a suite of flexible analysis tools

LAD Violationreqt 1: 1000 tons, C0 - C0reqt 2: 1200 tons, C0 - C1reqt 3: 2000 tons, C0 - C2

C-5 200 tons/dayC-141 400 tons/dayC-130 200 tons/day

200

600

C0 C1 C2 C3 C4

tons

days

800The Planning Horizon Determines theDetail Needed

Execution

Sche

dule

Estim

ate

Planning

Det

ail n

eede

d

Planning Horizon

Course of Action Tools

Mission Editor

User-Based Scheduler

Automated Scheduler

11


Consolidated Air MobilityPlanning and Scheduling (CAMPS)

CAMPS scheduling tools are AMC’s means of scheduling major military operations like Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom

12


Ohio River Navigation Investment Model

• A spatially-detailed partial equilibrium model

• Built by ORNL in collaboration with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Center of Excellence in Navigation Planning

• Estimates net economic benefits of river system infrastructure improvements− New locks/Lock extensions− Maintenance plans− Operations policies

13


GeoFreightIs A Multi-Modal, GIS-Based Freight Analysis & Display Software Used To:

Estimate flows of domestic &

international freight across the

nation

Assess current and potential

major freight bottlenecks

in the transportation system

14


TAFV Project Identified and ModeledKey Transitional “Barriers”

• Vehicle and fuel infrastructure requirements large, and not explicitly coordinated

• Fuel Availability− Alternative fuels rarely available (at filling stations)

• Scale economies:− Initial vehicle costs high (at low production scales)

• Limited vehicle model diversity− New tech available on only a few vehicle makes

• Possible Learning from production experience• Slow capital stock turnover

15


“Market Potential and Impacts of Alternative Fuel Use in Light Duty Vehicles: A 2000/2010 Analysis, DOE/PO-0042, Office of Policy

Analysis, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, January, 1996.

Find: Barriers to Alt Fuels Real & Important

2010 Alternative Fuel Demand Shares, Base Case (No New Policy)

GasolineCNG

Ethanol

Methanol

LPGElectricity

Gasoline CNG

Ethanol Methanol

LPG Electricity

No Transitional Barriers

Source: Leiby, P.N. Leiby, D.L.

Greene and Harry Vidas.

1996.*

Gasoline

Gasoline CNG

Ethanol Methanol

LPG Electricity

Transitional Analysis With Barriers

(Base Case, No New Policies AEO HWOP, Lower LPG Cost)

16


Working together with teams from other National Laboratories, academia and industry, ORNL is helping to create analytical tools for understanding the transition to a hydrogen economy.

• In what scenarios (under what conditions) will the hydrogen economy succeed?

• How do individual technologies affect the transition to and functioning of the system?

• How do alternative energy sources affect the transition to and functioning of the system?

• How will the evolution of the system over time and geographically affect costs and benefits?

• What is the role for policy in the transition and maintenance of the hydrogen economy?

• What are the costs and benefits (including the global macroeconomic effects) of a hydrogen economy?

17


Approach: HyTrans applies optimization methods to construct an economic model of the hydrogen transition.• Represents interdependent decisions of hydrogen suppliers,

vehicle manufacturers & consumers from 2000 to 2050.

• Finds competitive market solutions by maximizing producers’ profits and consumers’ welfare.

• Decision-making to 2050 can be based on perfect foresight, myopia, or other expectation models.

• Version 1 is limited in scope. − Only 3 production technologies

• Centralized SMR• Forecourt SMR• Forecourt Electrolysis

− Considers only LDV H2 demand− National, aspatial market structure

18


HyTrans finds a simultaneous solutionthat integrates consumer, fuel producer, fuel

distributor and vehicle manufacturer decisions.

Fuel Demandand Choice

FuelProduction

FeedstockSupply

New Vehicle Demand

and Choice

VehicleProduction

Fuel Usage & GHG Emissions

Vehicle Services Demand

Vintaged VehicleStock

Fuel DistributionAnd Retail

19


A key factor in infrastructure evolution will be the density of motor fuel demand. In

HyTrans there are three markets.

20


What’s next?

• National version operational on SFA data.• Added NAS data June, 2004.• Improving representation of fuel

availability and driver response (Melaina).• Adding H2A data ASAP.• Running and documenting national

transition scenarios, Sept 2004.• Adding Census regions, Dec. 2004.


Oak Ridge National Laboratory Nuclear Science and Technology

Division

Juan J. Ferrada, PhDPrincipal Investigator

DOE Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and Infrastructure Technologies Program

Systems Analysis WorkshopJuly 28-29, 2004

Washington, D.C.

22


Charter• Organization’s Mission

The Nuclear Science and Technology Division performs basic and applied R&D for the Department of Energy, the National Nuclear Security Administration, and other government agencies, as well as supporting and leveraging industrial partnerships.

• Group’s missionThe Process Engineering Research Group performs R&D and systems analysis in support of verification, design, development, and operation of energy related processes and equipment.

23


Charter (continued)Past funding• DOE Mixed Waste Focus Area: $400K• DOE Mixed Waste Integrated Program: $350K• DOE Transportable Vitrification System: $100K• CRADA with SEPRADYNE: $300K• Non-Proliferation: $250K• Pu Vitrification System: $80K• Space Power Options: $100K• Liquid Low Level Waste Treatment Options: $100K

24


Charter (continued)

Exploratory Funding• Hydrogen Economy System Demo: $30K• Hydrogen Production Using TVA Off-peak power: $20K• Hydrogen Production Using a Novel Thermochemical

Cycle: $50K• Hydrogen Storage and Recycle System using

NaBH4: $80K

25


History• Our group is doing analysis for the past 15 years• Significant past analysis projects include the following:

− Mixed Waste Focus Area: DOE Wixed Waste Systems Analysis− Mixed Waste Integrated Program: Multicriteria Evaluation

Methodology− Engineering Assessment for the DOE Transportable

Vitrification System− Hg Recuperation from the Copper Industry: CRADA− Uranium Conversion Process: Non-Proliferation− Innovative Technology Performance Assessment: Pu

Vitrification System− Liquid Low Level Waste Treatment Alternative− Fuel Cycle Flowsheet Analysis for both Domestic and

International Sponsors− Alternatives for Tank Waste Disposal at ORNL− Life Cycle Analysis Projects− H2 Economy Integration/Systems Analysis: Demo Seed Money− H2 Production from TVA’s Off-Peak Electric Production− H2 Production from Thermo Cycle process

• We have considered H2 for the last 3 years

26


FLOW, Basic Computerized Platform for Systems Analysis

27


Skill Set - People

Analysts that helped develop our group’s capabilities• Irvin Osborne-Lee, Chem. Eng. PhD,Texas A&M

University• Tim Welch, Chem. Eng. ORNL• Jim Nehls, MBA, Y-12• Hom-Ti Lee, Chem, Eng. PhD, K25• Jason Giardina, Chem. Eng. University of Kentucky• Ethan Turner, Chem. Eng. University of Tennessee• Juan J. Ferrada, Chem. Eng, PhD, ORNL• Les R. Dole, Physical Chem. PhD, ORNL

28


Skill Set - People

Current analysts• Juan J. Ferrada, Chem. Eng. PhD, ORNL, process modeling, cost

analysis, evaluation, management, integration• Les R. Dole, Physical Chemistry, PhD, ORNL, thermodynamics,

process development, evaluation, integration• David Keffer, Chem. Eng. PhD, University of Tennessee, Molecular

Modeling• Darlene K. Slattery, PhD, University of Central Florida, Fuel Cells,

Storage, Solar Energy• Tim Armstrong, Materials Science, PhD, ORNL, Fuel Cells,

Separation, Management• Beth Armstrong, Materials Science, Master Sc., ORNL, Advanced

Process and Manufacturing• Joe Birdwell, Chem. Eng. PhD, ORNL, process verification, process

development, process evaluation• Joe Walker, Chem. Eng. ORNL, management, process

development• Ben Lewis, Chem. Eng. ORNL, management, process verification

29


Skill Set – Models that include H2

• H2 System including Reforming and Shifting, Piping, and Storage− 2003− System integrates H2 production, PSA purification, compressing

and piping, and Storage. Estimates production, production costs, can optimize piping system.

− Models are based on thermodynamic, heuristics, and mass and energy balance. Cost models are programmed into system (ENREL, LBNL, LLNL, German, Sandia models).

− Model platform FLOW accessing HSC5 equilibrium models. − Limitations: Does not have large thermodynamic databases,

but may import from other programs.

30


System to Apply FLOWHydrogen Production

Power Sources:Combustion, Hydroelectric,Nuclear, Solar,

Tidal, etc

SMRSteam Methane

Reforming

SMRSteam Methane

Reforming

NPO(Non-Catalytic

Partial Oxidation)

NPO(Non-Catalytic

Partial Oxidation)

CO(Coal Gasification)CO

(Coal Gasification)

Pyro(Pyrolysis)Pyro

(Pyrolysis)

Electro(Electrolysis)Electro

(Electrolysis)

AHA(AnhydrousAmmonia)

AHA(AnhydrousAmmonia)

Bulk StorageOf H2 Production

National and RegionalBulk Distribution(>300 mi.)

Bulk Storage of H2For Large-ScaleUse or LocalDistribution

Distribution toPoints of UseOr Final Transfer(>300 mi.)

DistributedSmall-ScaleUse

DISTRIBUTED HEATAND

POWER GENERATION

DISTRIBUTED HEATAND

POWER GENERATION

HEAVYVEHICLESHEAVY

VEHICLES

LIGHTVEHICLESLIGHT

VEHICLES

CENTRAL HEATAND

POWER GENERATION

CENTRAL HEATAND

POWER GENERATION

LARGE-SCALECHEMICAL PROCESS

FUEL ENHANCEMENT, ETC.

LARGE-SCALECHEMICAL PROCESS

FUEL ENHANCEMENT, ETC.

COMPRESS

LIQUIFY

METAL HYDRIDE(Example: MgH2)

NON-METAL HYDRIDE(Example: NH3)

AD/ABSORPTION(Example in Carbon)

PUMP’NPIPE

BULK TRANSPORTTRUCK, TRAIN, BARGE SHIP

LIQUID GAS

SOLID

31


Skill Set – Models that include H2 (continued)• H2 System including Electrolysis Using TVA Off-peak

Power, Piping, and Storage− 2004− System integrates H2 production by electrolysis, compressing

and piping, and Storage. Estimates production, production costs, can optimize piping system.

− Models are based on thermodynamic, heuristics, and mass and energy balance. Cost models are programmed into system (ENREL, LBNL, LLNL, German, Sandia models, vendors).

− Model platform FLOW accessing HSC5 equilibrium models. − Limitations: Does not have large thermodynamic databases,

but may import from other programs

32


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

$/M

Wh

of P

ower

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Hour of Day

Nuclear Energy Electrolysis

CompressionH2 Storage

H2O

H2

Pipe Distribution

O2 Storage

O2Electricity

H2

Pipe Distribution

H2

Nuclear Energy Electrolysis

CompressionH2 Storage

H2O

H2

Pipe Distribution

O2 Storage

O2Electricity

H2

Pipe Distribution

H2

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

5,000 10,000 15,000

Ton H2/yr

$/K

g H 2 20 $/MWh

30 $/MWh40 $/MWh

Off-peak Analysis

H2 Production System

ProductionCost

Analysis of H2production using

TVA off- peak power

33


FLOW Representation of TVA case

34


Skill Set – Models that include H2 (continued)

• H2 System including Thermochemical Cycles (U3O8, NaOH, and H2O)− 2004− System integrates process stages− Models are based on thermodynamic, heuristics, and mass and

energy balance. − Model platform FLOW accessing HSC5 equilibrium models. − Limitations: Does not have large thermodynamic databases,

but may import from other programs

35


Skill Set – Models that could be adapted

• Previous model for mixed waste treatment evaluation that used multicriteriamethodology (technical risk, cost, reliability, availability, maintainability, etc.) can be adapted for the H2 Economy

− FLOW was used for every scenario analyzed− Models are based on thermodynamics and unit

operations− Model platform was FLOW− FLOW does not have an extensive thermodynamic

database but can import information from other sources

36


Skill Set – Capabilities Summary

No

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

MODELS SPECIFIC TO H2?

No

Yes

Yes

No

Yes

Yes

STUDIES SPECIFIC TO H2?

RESIDENT CAPABILITY?

TYPE OF ANALYSIS

YesEnergy Market Analysis

YesInfrastructure Development Analysis

YesDelivery Analysis

YesEnvironmental Analysis

YesTechnoeconomicAnalysis

YesResource Analysis

37


Studies

• Significant past studies that relate to hydrogen− H2 Production System using Electrolysis with TVA

Off-peak Power

− H2 Production using Reforming and Shifting• Significant past studies that could be

adapted to hydrogen− Mixed Waste Technology Selection Analysis

• List current/planned hydrogen studies− Hydrogen Production Using a Novel

Thermochemical Cycle

38


FuturePlans/commitments from our OrganizationOur Organization is providing:• University students are being sponsored

at ORNL to participate in various assignments to build relationships and to assess their future employment potential

• Seed money is being used to further enhance and develop H2 analysis capabilities

39


David Greene Backup Slides

40


Skill Set - People

• Sujit Das – advanced vehicle technology simulation and cost analysis

• David L. Greene – vehicle choice, fuel demand, transportation demand, policy analysis

• Jerry Hadder – refinery modeling and analysis (retiring 2004)• Paul N. Leiby – dynamic non-linear modeling of economic

systems, SPR optimization• Marc Melaina – (U. Mich.) fuel retailing, consumer behavior• Jonathan Rubin – (U. Maine) economic models, policy analysis• Rekha Pillai – operations research, supply chain analysis• Elzbieta Tworek – StrataG, infrastructure & supply chain analysis• I.G. Harrison, S.C. Davis, I.K. Busch, M.R. Hilliard, F. Southworth,

B.E. Peterson, S.M. Chin, O. Franzese, ORNL

41


Skill Set – Capabilities Summary(Refer to H2 Analysis Types – last Slide)

Yes

Yes

Yes

No

Yes, for fuel cell and IC H2 vehicles

No

MODELS SPECIFIC TO H2?

Yes or No

Yes or No

Yes or No

Yes or No

Yes, for advanced vehicles

No

STUDIES SPECIFIC TO H2?

RESIDENT CAPABILITY?

TYPE OF ANALYSIS

YesEnergy Market Analysis

Yes (e.g., ORNIM)Infrastructure Development Analysis

Yes, supply chain logistics

Delivery Analysis

Yes or NoEnvironmental Analysis

For advanced vehicles

TechnoeconomicAnalysis

Oil, conventional and unconventional

Resource Analysis

42


Materials Modeling Work Supports FreedomCARFocuses on the economic viability of advanced vehicle designs under consideration for light-duty vehicles by DOE/FreedomCAR

•Work done in collaboration with the industry partners and other national labs

•Component level cost and technical targets of FreedomCAR need to be met to achieve affordability of advanced technology vehicles. Carbon fiber polymer composites still remain a long-term solution towards vehicle lightweighting.

•Lightweight body materials and advanced engine designs include some of the major research areas

Analytical tools developed to examine the cost-effectiveness of new technologies both from component specific as well as system perspectives:

43


ORNL has been a leader in Freight Transportation Research:

1) GeoFreight GIS/Bottleneck Analysis Tool(US Dept. of Transportation)

2) 2002 Commodity Flow Survey: Inter-modal Shipment Routing Models (US Dept. of Transportation)

3) Enterprise Model of Dynamic freight Supply Chains(National Science Foundation)

4) Maritime Input-Output Model for North America(US Army Corps of Engineers)

44


GeoFreight allows flexible area-based analysis of the multi-modal traffic and freight tonnage passing through a user-defined region (e.g. part of an urban area, a seaport).

This includes the ability to identify those origin-destination pairs of placesimpacted by traffic passing through the freight handling facilities in the area – on a nationwide basis.


Estimating the economic impacts of improved waterway access for the Great Lakes/St. Lawrence Seaway

0 300 600 900Miles

cancma Selection SetsCanadian CMAs

TRIPODS Selection SetsMajor Seaports

COALTRIP Selection SetsS4S3S2S1

Trade model

Commodity Use Model

Domestic Supplier Model

Regional ReportsOutput

EarningsEmployment

ImportsLeakages

Production by region

and industryroun

ds

Scenario Assumptions

Foreign Exports

Regional Final Demand

Water RouteCost savings

from improvement

Maritine Input Output TablePurchases

Sales East

ern

Unite

d St

ates

Cent

ral U

nite

d St

ates

Wes

tern

Uni

ted

Stat

esG

reat

Lak

e St

ates

Gre

at L

ake

Prov

ince

sEa

ster

n Ca

nada

Wes

tern

Can

ada

Reg

iona

l Fin

al D

eman

dFo

reig

n Ex

ports

Eastern United States

Central United States

Western United States

Great Lake States

Great Lake Provinces

Eastern Canada

Western Canada

Foreign Imports

Regional Input OutputInter Regional TradeRegional Final DemandForeign ImportsForeign Exports

Maritime Input-Output Model

US Army Corpsof Engineers Project

county-to-county freight flows, 60 commodities

46


Simulating US Freight Movements in the 2002 Commodity Flow Survey

National Highway NetworkDatabase

National RailNetworkDatabase

CFS Unified Multimodal/Intermodal Freight Network

Combines Inland , Coastal,Great Lakes & Trans-Oceanic Links

National Waterway NetworkDatabase

Global SeawaysNetworkDatabase

OperationalWaterways NetworkDatabase

OperationalRail Network

Database

Intermodal,Truck, andPortsTerminalsDatabases

Project for the Bureau of TransportationStatistics, US DOT

2.7 million zip –to-zip and US to foreign destination, single and multi-modal freight shipment routingsBased on ORNL multimodal freight networks

47


TAFV Project Explored Effectiveness of Policy Tools at Different Oil Price LevelsAlternative Fuel Share in 2010 (%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20Oil Price Shift (by 2010, $/BBL)

Base: No new policy

Fleet AFV Mandate, 50% Fuel Use

30% Gasoline Displacement Mandate

Low-GHG Fuel Subsidy- $61/T CO2

Low-GHG Fuel Subsidy - smaller

48


HyTrans finds a simultaneous solutionthat integrates consumer, fuel producer, fuel

distributor and vehicle manufacturer decisions.

Fuel Demandand Choice

FuelProduction

FeedstockSupply

New Vehicle Demand

and Choice

VehicleProduction

Fuel Usage & GHG Emissions

Vehicle Services Demand

Vintaged VehicleStock

Fuel DistributionAnd Retail

49


Delivery Mode ChoiceWill Depend on Distances, Demand Density, and

Demand VolumeDelivery

Includes: Compression/Liquefaction+Storage+Dispensing+Transporting+Storage+Compression/Vaporization

Production ForecourtPipeline

Centralized SMR Truck Compressed Gas

Truck Liquefied

(Store + Dispense)

Distributed SMR

Retailing ofCompressedGas

Forecourt SMR

Distributed ElectForecourt Electrolysis

50


A key factor in infrastructure evolution will be the density of motor fuel demand. In

HyTrans there are three markets.

51


Most of US Area is Low Demand Density, But Med-High Density Areas Comprise Bulk of Motor Fuel Demand

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%Fraction of US Land Area

Dem

and

Den

sity

(10^

3 kg

/km

^2-y

r)

Fraction of US MotorFuel Demand

Estimated FuelConsumption Density(kg/km 2̂/yr)

~100% Demand

Declining Density

Basis: County-by-county population, vehicle ownership, and area dataset

52


Most light-duty vehicle fuel is consumed in counties comprising about 10% of the land area of the US.

>=125,00025,000 to124,999 <24,999

% Area

% of fuel

36% 35%29%

2% 10%

88%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

kg/km^2 per year

High, Medium and Low Fuel Density Regions

53


Thinking of highways as linear markets, most rural fuel is consumed on interstates and principal arterials.

Fuel Use and Road Mile Distribution by Highway Class

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

R Interst

ate

R Arte

rial

R Other

ALL RURAL

U Interst

ate

U Other

ALL URBAN

% Road Miles % Fuel

54


Delivery costs depend on both production scaleand density of demand.

(Low Density Region Illustrative Costs)

Delilvery cost, density 3000 kg/sqkm/yr

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5

PP CT TT

50 100 200 500 1000 50 100 200 500 1000 50 100 200 500 1000

daily flow kg/day in Thousands

Uni

t cos

t $/k

g

UC of H2 compression to 400 atmUC of Liquid H2 storage 7daysUC of H2 transportationUC of gaseous H2 storageUC of H2 dispensing to trucksUC of liquid H2 storage 12 hoursUC of H2 compressionUC of H2 liquefaction

55


At high densities, pipelines do appear to dominate, but many questions remain.(High Density Region Illustrative Costs)

Delivery cost, density 100,000 kg/sqkm/yr

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

PP CT TT

50 100 200 500 1000 50 100 200 500 1000 50 100 200 500 1000

Daily flow kg/d in Thousands

Uni

t Cos

t $/k

g

UC of H2 compression to 400 atmUC of Liquid H2 storage 7daysUC of H2 transportationUC of gaseous H2 storageUC of H2 dispensing to trucksUC of liquid H2 storage 12 hoursUC of H2 compressionUC of H2 liquefaction

56


Improving our representation of fuel availability value to vehicle owner, via spatially explicit analysis (side-studies)

• UC Davis using urban models to measuring increased trip distance and travel time for limited local availability.

• The value of availability in non-local markets and other regions needs a rigorous logical framework.

• Availability in linear markets needs a rigorous formulation. Marc Melaina (U. Mich) addressing.

57


Spatial/GIS Approach to Availability Cost:Urban Area/Interstate Network Model

58


Hard problems remain for demand modeling:

• How to determine the value of availability in other regions?− Own region− Intercity− Other regions

• How to explore the unique value of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle?

• How to design the most competitive vehicles?

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