O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm...

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O lik Sl Oerlikon Solar

Transcript of O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm...

Page 1: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

O lik S lOerlikon Solar

Page 2: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Di l iDisclaimer

This presentation is based on information currently available to management. The p y gforward-looking statements contained herein could be substantially impacted by risks and influences that are not foreseeable at present, so that actual results may vary materially from those anticipated, expected or projected.y p , p p j

Page 3: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009
Page 4: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

O lik S l t lOerlikon Solar at a glance

W ld l di f t f dW ld l di f t f dWorld leading manufacturer of proven end to end thin-film silicon PV solutionsWorld leading manufacturer of proven end to end thin-film silicon PV solutions

More than 730 000 manufactured panelsMore than 730 000 manufactured panelsMore than 730.000 manufactured panels producedMore than 730.000 manufactured panels produced

309 MCHF Sales in 2007309 MCHF Sales in 2007309 MCHF Sales in 2007 309 MCHF Sales in 2007

From 350 to 850 Employees in 2008From 350 to 850 Employees in 2008

More than 200 global customer personnel at 13 locations in 9 countriesMore than 200 global customer personnel at 13 locations in 9 countries

Page 5: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Oerlikon Solar Revenues

M th 100% thM th 100% th

2006 2007 2008

More than 100% year on year revenue growth.More than 100% year on year revenue growth.

Page 6: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Over 300 scientists Over 300 scientists

R & D Investments

and engineersand engineers

Over 200 patents and 300 patent

li ti

Over 200 patents and 300 patent

li ti2006 2007 2008 applicationsapplications

Page 7: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

B i h tBusiness snapshotOerlikon Solar has become a leading player in thin-film PV.Oerlikon Solar has become a leading player in thin-film PV.g p yg p y

The technology is well positioned to deliver competitive LCOE.The technology is well positioned to deliver competitive LCOE.

Fastest growing sector of the PV market.Fastest growing sector of the PV market.

Delivering all projects on schedule and on performance.Delivering all projects on schedule and on performance.

Greater then 100% year on year revenue growth.Greater then 100% year on year revenue growth.

Technology roadmap on schedule for 0.70 $/Wp by 2010.Technology roadmap on schedule for 0.70 $/Wp by 2010.

Proven ability to scale. Proven ability to scale.

Page 8: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009
Page 9: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Gl b l d dGlobal energy demandTotal electricity production mix

Hydro16%

Nuclear15%

Waste Geothermal13 4%

Gas20%

15%

Oil6%

Wind29,3%

14,9% 13,4%Other2,4% Solar PV

0,6%

Solar Thermal0 2%

Other2%

Coal

Biomass39,1%

0,2%Tide0,1%

41%

Source: EIA

PV market opportunity is effectively unlimitedPV market opportunity is effectively unlimited

Page 10: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

G th di tiMWp25,000

Growth predictionsAnnual PV module demand 20,000

10 000

15,000

1 1

5,000

10,000

2,839

4,582

4,754

6,529

9,366

2,856

8,072

02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

OCS (Base Case) Citi Nov 25, '08CAGR 2008 – 2013CAGR 2008 – 2013DB Jan 21, 09 LLC, Nov '08

Navigant, Nov '08 EuPD Dec '0832%32%

Growth will return in 2010 when financial markets recover.

Page 11: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Thi Fil PV S tThin-Film PV SegmentAccumulated installed capacity

GWp

35000

40000

CAGR

Thin-Film 83%15000

20000

25000

30000

c-Si 33%

Total Capacity 41%0

5000

10000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

c-Si Thin Film (OS)

Thin Film installed capacity growing rapidlyThin Film installed capacity growing rapidly

Page 12: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Thi fil l f t iThin-film annual manufacturing capacity additions

5,000

6,000

50% growth50% growth

3,000

4,000

MW

0

1,000

2,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Growth revised from 70% pre crisis.

Page 13: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009
Page 14: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Hi hli ht i 2008Highlights in 2008What we have achieved

We became a recognized technology leader

Executive management team strengthened

Manufacturing capacity expanded in Europe

Strategic manufacturing partnership with Flextronics

Expanded low cost sourcing supply chain in Asia

Expanded service operations base in Asia

Pilot line officially opened in SwitzerlandPilot line officially opened in Switzerland

More than 730,000 panels manufactured by our customers

Installed capacity now over 350 MW

Page 15: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Hi hli ht i 2008Highlights in 2008Technology achievements

Launched:Launched: amorphIHIGH PERFORMANCE> 7% efficiency

Received:Received: IEC master certification from TÜV

Achieved:Ch i ll b 13% ffi iChampion cell above 13% efficiencyfor micromorph

Page 16: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Hi hli ht i 2008Highlights in 2008New customers in production

Full scale amorphous end to end production at Sun Well (Taiwan)

Start of first micromorph productionStart of first micromorph production at Inventux (Germany)

Page 17: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

P j t d tProject updateCustomer Technology Type Contract

SignedMove-InOn Time

SOPOn Time

MWSigned On-Time On-Time

Bosch/Ersol Amorphous Equipment 40

Schüco Amorphous Equipment R&D

Schott Amorphous Equipment 40

CSG Amorphous Equipment 20

Sunwell Amorphous End-to-End 50

Inventux Micromorph Equipment 30

Next Solar Micromorph End-to-End 30

Tianwei Amorphous End-to-End 46

Auria Solar Micromorph End-to-End 60

Pramac Micromorph End-to-End 30Pramac Micromorph End to End 30

Sunwell (2) Micromorph End-to-End 60

Sunwell (3) Micromorph End-to-End 120

Gadir Amorphous End-to-End 40

Chint Micromorph Equipment 40

Total more than 600 MWTotal more than 600 MW

Page 18: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009
Page 19: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

B i h tBusiness snapshotShort term challenge, long term opportunity

New orders targets where being met.Order targets were being met.

In the first half of 2008 Oerlikon Solar established a strong market positionIn the first half of 2008 Oerlikon Solar established a strong market position

g gg gDemonstrated technical leadership with highest performance.All projects delivered on timeAll projects meeting performance promises.

New orders delayed due to the inability for customers to get financing. Potential for project execution delay on some existing orders due to possible customer financing

And then… the financial crisis hit!And then… the financial crisis hit!

Potential for project execution delay on some existing orders due to possible customer financing delays.

Expect 6 to 12 months before growth returns.Expect 6 to 12 months before growth returns.

Customers build plants today for markets in 2010.Fundamental need and benefits of PV have not changed. Political winds are favorable.

Page 20: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009
Page 21: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

G id it h d f th l PV k tPotential for explosive growth in d d

Grid parity: ahead of the solar PV market

Demand SupplyElectricity from Solar PV is becoming cheaper

demand upon convergence

Rising Grid Costs

US-Average price ofcost

($/k

Wh)

Grid Parity

US Average price of electricity: 8,6 cents/kWh

ice,

Sol

ar P

V

Potential for over supply

Grid

pr

over-supply

Page 22: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009
Page 23: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Wh thi fil i t d f Si?Why thin-film instead of c-Si?Absolute lowest cost of electricity!

Much lower manufacturing cost then c-SiLower efficiency does result in slightly higher BOS cost y g y gHowever, overall result is lowest cost of electricity

Better performance at higher operating temperatures Better performance in diffused light, wider range of incidence anglesMore KWhrs for every KWp

Higher margins in manufacturing Higher rates of return on investment for solar projectsHigher rates of return on investment for solar projects

Page 24: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

P i d l t l PV l h iEquipmentEquipment WholesaleWholesaleModuleModule BOSBOS Solar FarmSolar Farm Solar Farm Solar Farm

Price development along PV value chainc-Si panel (Sharp ND series, 2009 – 13% efficiency)

0.344.5

5.0($/W)

1.41O&M

InsuranceOverhead

InvertersCost of

Electricity

ManufacturerManufacturer Utilities (PPA)Utilities (PPA)ManufacturerManufacturer SuppliersSuppliers IntegratorIntegrator OwnerOwner

3.0

3.5

4.0Inverters

Mechanical

ElectricalLand

Electricity

0.21 $/kWh

1.5

2.0

2.50.90

(30%)

3.00

4.754.41

10 MW project in California

including

ITC

Accelerated Depreciation

0 0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.10

3.0055% Equity@12%

45% Debt@9%

Grid Parity approx:

0.12 $ / KWh0.0

Module Cost

Module Margin

Module Price

BOS Price

System Price

Ownership Costs (NPV)

Cost to Own The System

Page 25: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

P i d l t l PV l h iEquipmentEquipment WholesaleWholesaleModuleModule BOSBOS Solar FarmSolar Farm Solar Farm Solar Farm

Price development along PV value chainMicromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009 – 9% efficiency)

($/W)

0 304.5

5.0

1 72O&M

InsuranceCost of

Electricity

ManufacturerManufacturer Utilities (PPA)Utilities (PPA)ManufacturerManufacturer SuppliersSuppliers IntegratorIntegrator OwnerOwner

0.30

3.0

3.5

4.01.72 Overhead

Electricity

0.19 $/kWh Inverters

Mechanical

1.5

2.0

2.50.69

(30%)4.01 4.31

Assumption

10 MW project in California

including

ITC

Accelerated Depreciation

ElectricalLand

0 0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1.602.29

Assumption55% Equity@12%

45% Debt@9%

Grid Parity approx:

0.12 $ / KWh0.0

Module Cost

Module Margin

Module Price

BOS Price

System Price

Ownership Costs (NPV)

Cost to Own The System

Page 26: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

P i d l t l PV l h iEquipmentEquipment WholesaleWholesaleModuleModule BOSBOS Solar FarmSolar Farm Solar Farm Solar Farm

Price development along PV value chainMicromorph panel (Oerlikon roadmap 2010)

4.5

5.0

Cost of Electricity

($/W)

ManufacturerManufacturer Utilities (PPA)Utilities (PPA)ManufacturerManufacturer SuppliersSuppliers IntegratorIntegrator OwnerOwner

3.0

3.5

4.0

1 59O&M

Insurance

Electricity

0.13 $/kWh Grid Parity!Grid Parity!

0.19

1.5

2.0

2.51.59

2 77

Overhead 10 MW project in California

including

ITC

Accelerated Depreciation

Inverters

Mechanical

Electrical

0 0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.29(30%)

0.99

2.58 2.77

0.70

55% Equity@12%

45% Debt@9%

Grid Parity approx:

0.13 $ / KWh

ElectricalLand

0.0

*For Equipment Offered in 2010

Module Cost

Module Margin

Module Price

BOS Price

System Price

Ownership Costs (NPV)

Cost to Own The System

Page 27: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009
Page 28: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

P d ti itProduction capacity rampsRapid learning curve

18'000

20'000

FAB ‐ A   FAB ‐ BRamp-Up Phase

8'000

10'000

12'000

14'000

16'000

kW KW

200% improvement of production levels at week 21

200% improvement of production levels at week 21

0

2'000

4'000

6'000

8 000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 471 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Weeks since SOPWeeks since SOP

Project production ramp-up faster than expectedProject production ramp-up faster than expected

Page 29: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

P d ti i ldProduction yield rampsRapid learning curve

100

120

FAB ‐ B  FAB ‐ A Ramp-Up Yield

Target yields achieved after four weeksYield is much more stable

Target yields achieved after four weeksYield is much more stable

60

80

100

% %

compared to earlier projectscompared to earlier projects

0

20

40

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 471 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47

Weeks after SOPWeeks since SOP

Project yield ramp-up progress better than expectedProject yield ramp-up progress better than expectedProject yield ramp-up progress better than expected

Page 30: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Short term challenges long term opport nitiesShort term challenges, long term opportunitiesSolutions for a solar powered world

Thin-film is the fastest growing PV segment, creating a 45 BUSD total solar market opportunity by 2012Thin-film is the fastest growing PV segment, creating a 45 BUSD total solar market opportunity by 2012

On track to achieve grid parity by 2010Oerlikon Solar on track to offer grid parity solutions by 2010Oerlikon Solar on track to offer grid parity solutions by 2010

a 45 BUSD total solar market opportunity by 2012.a 45 BUSD total solar market opportunity by 2012.

On track to achieve grid parity by 2010.Oerlikon Solar on track to offer grid parity solutions by 2010.Oerlikon Solar on track to offer grid parity solutions by 2010.

Prove solutions for high volume thin-film silicon solar module production with more than 700’000 produced panels.Proven manufacturing solutions More than 730,000 panels already producedProven manufacturing solutions More than 730,000 panels already produced

Page 31: O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm Wholesale Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009

Thank youThank you for your attention.