O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm...
Transcript of O lik S lOerlikon Solar - Piper Sandler CompaniesEquipment Module BOS Solar Farm Solar Farm...
O lik S lOerlikon Solar
Di l iDisclaimer
This presentation is based on information currently available to management. The p y gforward-looking statements contained herein could be substantially impacted by risks and influences that are not foreseeable at present, so that actual results may vary materially from those anticipated, expected or projected.y p , p p j
O lik S l t lOerlikon Solar at a glance
W ld l di f t f dW ld l di f t f dWorld leading manufacturer of proven end to end thin-film silicon PV solutionsWorld leading manufacturer of proven end to end thin-film silicon PV solutions
More than 730 000 manufactured panelsMore than 730 000 manufactured panelsMore than 730.000 manufactured panels producedMore than 730.000 manufactured panels produced
309 MCHF Sales in 2007309 MCHF Sales in 2007309 MCHF Sales in 2007 309 MCHF Sales in 2007
From 350 to 850 Employees in 2008From 350 to 850 Employees in 2008
More than 200 global customer personnel at 13 locations in 9 countriesMore than 200 global customer personnel at 13 locations in 9 countries
Oerlikon Solar Revenues
M th 100% thM th 100% th
2006 2007 2008
More than 100% year on year revenue growth.More than 100% year on year revenue growth.
Over 300 scientists Over 300 scientists
R & D Investments
and engineersand engineers
Over 200 patents and 300 patent
li ti
Over 200 patents and 300 patent
li ti2006 2007 2008 applicationsapplications
B i h tBusiness snapshotOerlikon Solar has become a leading player in thin-film PV.Oerlikon Solar has become a leading player in thin-film PV.g p yg p y
The technology is well positioned to deliver competitive LCOE.The technology is well positioned to deliver competitive LCOE.
Fastest growing sector of the PV market.Fastest growing sector of the PV market.
Delivering all projects on schedule and on performance.Delivering all projects on schedule and on performance.
Greater then 100% year on year revenue growth.Greater then 100% year on year revenue growth.
Technology roadmap on schedule for 0.70 $/Wp by 2010.Technology roadmap on schedule for 0.70 $/Wp by 2010.
Proven ability to scale. Proven ability to scale.
Gl b l d dGlobal energy demandTotal electricity production mix
Hydro16%
Nuclear15%
Waste Geothermal13 4%
Gas20%
15%
Oil6%
Wind29,3%
14,9% 13,4%Other2,4% Solar PV
0,6%
Solar Thermal0 2%
Other2%
Coal
Biomass39,1%
0,2%Tide0,1%
41%
Source: EIA
PV market opportunity is effectively unlimitedPV market opportunity is effectively unlimited
G th di tiMWp25,000
Growth predictionsAnnual PV module demand 20,000
10 000
15,000
1 1
5,000
10,000
2,839
4,582
4,754
6,529
9,366
2,856
8,072
02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
OCS (Base Case) Citi Nov 25, '08CAGR 2008 – 2013CAGR 2008 – 2013DB Jan 21, 09 LLC, Nov '08
Navigant, Nov '08 EuPD Dec '0832%32%
Growth will return in 2010 when financial markets recover.
Thi Fil PV S tThin-Film PV SegmentAccumulated installed capacity
GWp
35000
40000
CAGR
Thin-Film 83%15000
20000
25000
30000
c-Si 33%
Total Capacity 41%0
5000
10000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
c-Si Thin Film (OS)
Thin Film installed capacity growing rapidlyThin Film installed capacity growing rapidly
Thi fil l f t iThin-film annual manufacturing capacity additions
5,000
6,000
50% growth50% growth
3,000
4,000
MW
0
1,000
2,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Growth revised from 70% pre crisis.
Hi hli ht i 2008Highlights in 2008What we have achieved
We became a recognized technology leader
Executive management team strengthened
Manufacturing capacity expanded in Europe
Strategic manufacturing partnership with Flextronics
Expanded low cost sourcing supply chain in Asia
Expanded service operations base in Asia
Pilot line officially opened in SwitzerlandPilot line officially opened in Switzerland
More than 730,000 panels manufactured by our customers
Installed capacity now over 350 MW
Hi hli ht i 2008Highlights in 2008Technology achievements
Launched:Launched: amorphIHIGH PERFORMANCE> 7% efficiency
Received:Received: IEC master certification from TÜV
Achieved:Ch i ll b 13% ffi iChampion cell above 13% efficiencyfor micromorph
Hi hli ht i 2008Highlights in 2008New customers in production
Full scale amorphous end to end production at Sun Well (Taiwan)
Start of first micromorph productionStart of first micromorph production at Inventux (Germany)
P j t d tProject updateCustomer Technology Type Contract
SignedMove-InOn Time
SOPOn Time
MWSigned On-Time On-Time
Bosch/Ersol Amorphous Equipment 40
Schüco Amorphous Equipment R&D
Schott Amorphous Equipment 40
CSG Amorphous Equipment 20
Sunwell Amorphous End-to-End 50
Inventux Micromorph Equipment 30
Next Solar Micromorph End-to-End 30
Tianwei Amorphous End-to-End 46
Auria Solar Micromorph End-to-End 60
Pramac Micromorph End-to-End 30Pramac Micromorph End to End 30
Sunwell (2) Micromorph End-to-End 60
Sunwell (3) Micromorph End-to-End 120
Gadir Amorphous End-to-End 40
Chint Micromorph Equipment 40
Total more than 600 MWTotal more than 600 MW
B i h tBusiness snapshotShort term challenge, long term opportunity
New orders targets where being met.Order targets were being met.
In the first half of 2008 Oerlikon Solar established a strong market positionIn the first half of 2008 Oerlikon Solar established a strong market position
g gg gDemonstrated technical leadership with highest performance.All projects delivered on timeAll projects meeting performance promises.
New orders delayed due to the inability for customers to get financing. Potential for project execution delay on some existing orders due to possible customer financing
And then… the financial crisis hit!And then… the financial crisis hit!
Potential for project execution delay on some existing orders due to possible customer financing delays.
Expect 6 to 12 months before growth returns.Expect 6 to 12 months before growth returns.
Customers build plants today for markets in 2010.Fundamental need and benefits of PV have not changed. Political winds are favorable.
G id it h d f th l PV k tPotential for explosive growth in d d
Grid parity: ahead of the solar PV market
Demand SupplyElectricity from Solar PV is becoming cheaper
demand upon convergence
Rising Grid Costs
US-Average price ofcost
($/k
Wh)
Grid Parity
US Average price of electricity: 8,6 cents/kWh
ice,
Sol
ar P
V
Potential for over supply
Grid
pr
over-supply
Wh thi fil i t d f Si?Why thin-film instead of c-Si?Absolute lowest cost of electricity!
Much lower manufacturing cost then c-SiLower efficiency does result in slightly higher BOS cost y g y gHowever, overall result is lowest cost of electricity
Better performance at higher operating temperatures Better performance in diffused light, wider range of incidence anglesMore KWhrs for every KWp
Higher margins in manufacturing Higher rates of return on investment for solar projectsHigher rates of return on investment for solar projects
P i d l t l PV l h iEquipmentEquipment WholesaleWholesaleModuleModule BOSBOS Solar FarmSolar Farm Solar Farm Solar Farm
Price development along PV value chainc-Si panel (Sharp ND series, 2009 – 13% efficiency)
0.344.5
5.0($/W)
1.41O&M
InsuranceOverhead
InvertersCost of
Electricity
ManufacturerManufacturer Utilities (PPA)Utilities (PPA)ManufacturerManufacturer SuppliersSuppliers IntegratorIntegrator OwnerOwner
3.0
3.5
4.0Inverters
Mechanical
ElectricalLand
Electricity
0.21 $/kWh
1.5
2.0
2.50.90
(30%)
3.00
4.754.41
10 MW project in California
including
ITC
Accelerated Depreciation
0 0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.10
3.0055% Equity@12%
45% Debt@9%
Grid Parity approx:
0.12 $ / KWh0.0
Module Cost
Module Margin
Module Price
BOS Price
System Price
Ownership Costs (NPV)
Cost to Own The System
P i d l t l PV l h iEquipmentEquipment WholesaleWholesaleModuleModule BOSBOS Solar FarmSolar Farm Solar Farm Solar Farm
Price development along PV value chainMicromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009 – 9% efficiency)
($/W)
0 304.5
5.0
1 72O&M
InsuranceCost of
Electricity
ManufacturerManufacturer Utilities (PPA)Utilities (PPA)ManufacturerManufacturer SuppliersSuppliers IntegratorIntegrator OwnerOwner
0.30
3.0
3.5
4.01.72 Overhead
Electricity
0.19 $/kWh Inverters
Mechanical
1.5
2.0
2.50.69
(30%)4.01 4.31
Assumption
10 MW project in California
including
ITC
Accelerated Depreciation
ElectricalLand
0 0
0.5
1.0
1.5
1.602.29
Assumption55% Equity@12%
45% Debt@9%
Grid Parity approx:
0.12 $ / KWh0.0
Module Cost
Module Margin
Module Price
BOS Price
System Price
Ownership Costs (NPV)
Cost to Own The System
P i d l t l PV l h iEquipmentEquipment WholesaleWholesaleModuleModule BOSBOS Solar FarmSolar Farm Solar Farm Solar Farm
Price development along PV value chainMicromorph panel (Oerlikon roadmap 2010)
4.5
5.0
Cost of Electricity
($/W)
ManufacturerManufacturer Utilities (PPA)Utilities (PPA)ManufacturerManufacturer SuppliersSuppliers IntegratorIntegrator OwnerOwner
3.0
3.5
4.0
1 59O&M
Insurance
Electricity
0.13 $/kWh Grid Parity!Grid Parity!
0.19
1.5
2.0
2.51.59
2 77
Overhead 10 MW project in California
including
ITC
Accelerated Depreciation
Inverters
Mechanical
Electrical
0 0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0.29(30%)
0.99
2.58 2.77
0.70
55% Equity@12%
45% Debt@9%
Grid Parity approx:
0.13 $ / KWh
ElectricalLand
0.0
*For Equipment Offered in 2010
Module Cost
Module Margin
Module Price
BOS Price
System Price
Ownership Costs (NPV)
Cost to Own The System
P d ti itProduction capacity rampsRapid learning curve
18'000
20'000
FAB ‐ A FAB ‐ BRamp-Up Phase
8'000
10'000
12'000
14'000
16'000
kW KW
200% improvement of production levels at week 21
200% improvement of production levels at week 21
0
2'000
4'000
6'000
8 000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 471 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
Weeks since SOPWeeks since SOP
Project production ramp-up faster than expectedProject production ramp-up faster than expected
P d ti i ldProduction yield rampsRapid learning curve
100
120
FAB ‐ B FAB ‐ A Ramp-Up Yield
Target yields achieved after four weeksYield is much more stable
Target yields achieved after four weeksYield is much more stable
60
80
100
% %
compared to earlier projectscompared to earlier projects
0
20
40
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 471 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
Weeks after SOPWeeks since SOP
Project yield ramp-up progress better than expectedProject yield ramp-up progress better than expectedProject yield ramp-up progress better than expected
Short term challenges long term opport nitiesShort term challenges, long term opportunitiesSolutions for a solar powered world
Thin-film is the fastest growing PV segment, creating a 45 BUSD total solar market opportunity by 2012Thin-film is the fastest growing PV segment, creating a 45 BUSD total solar market opportunity by 2012
On track to achieve grid parity by 2010Oerlikon Solar on track to offer grid parity solutions by 2010Oerlikon Solar on track to offer grid parity solutions by 2010
a 45 BUSD total solar market opportunity by 2012.a 45 BUSD total solar market opportunity by 2012.
On track to achieve grid parity by 2010.Oerlikon Solar on track to offer grid parity solutions by 2010.Oerlikon Solar on track to offer grid parity solutions by 2010.
Prove solutions for high volume thin-film silicon solar module production with more than 700’000 produced panels.Proven manufacturing solutions More than 730,000 panels already producedProven manufacturing solutions More than 730,000 panels already produced
Thank youThank you for your attention.