NWT Labour Supply Bureau of Statistics July 5, 2006.

NWT Labour Supply

Bureau of StatisticsJuly 5, 2006

NWT Bureau of Statistics 2

Brown Bag Series: 2006-07

This is first in a series of analytical presentations that will be undertaken in 2006-07 by the Bureau of Statistics on behalf of ECE. The planned topics are:

1. Labour supply in the NWT2. Employment income patterns3. Barriers to labour market entry4. Forecast occupation demand5. Education and labour market success6. A profile of older workers in the NWT

Current and past presentations are available on the Bureau of Statistics’ website at: www.stats.gov.nt.ca


Presentation Outline

This presentation provides an overview of labour supply in the Northwest Territories.

There are three parts to the presentation: Labour Supply - an overview Labour Supply - the details

Defining labour supplyLabour supply examined by:

• geography

• ethnicity and gender

• education

Demand for NWT Labour Supply

Labour Supply - An Overview


Why Labour Supply is important

Significant resource-based development is expected in the NWT, bringing increased labour demand

An aging population means that existing workers will need to be replaced

Labour demand in southern jurisdictions creates competition for labour, and has the potential to attract NWT residents


Defining Labour Supply

The answer isn’t as simple as “the unemployed” Need to understand what comprises potential labour supply Need to consider practical limitations to labour market

participation


NWT Labour Market Activity, 2005

Employed22,700 persons

Unemployed1,300 persons

Labour Force23,900 persons

Not in the Labour Force7,500 persons

Pop 15 & Over31,400 persons

Three Labour Market measures:

The participation rate is the Labour force as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over: 76.1%

The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the labour force: 5.4%

The employment rate is the number of employer persons as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over: 72.3%


Labour Market Activity/Inactivity: 2004

The Bureau’s periodic (1989, 1994, 1999, 2001, 2004 …) Community Survey provides more detailed information on those Not in the Labour Force (NILF), and on the unemployed and the employed


Labour Market Distribution: 2004

One third of the population over 15 years of age has an employment

rate of less than 50% and is located across 29 communities.

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Popul. Partic- Unemp- Employ

15 Yrs. Labour ipation loyment -ment % of Total # of

& Over Force Empl. Unemp. Rate Rate Rate Population Comm.

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Northwest Territories 31,341 23,694 21,240 2,454 75.6 10.4 67.8 100.0 33

Yellowknife 14,383 12,079 11,470 609 84.0 5.0 79.7 45.9 1

Hay River, Fort Smith

and Inuvik 7,161 5,455 4,987 468 76.2 8.6 69.6 22.8 3

Rest of Communities 9,797 6,160 4,783 1,377 62.9 22.4 48.8 31.3 29

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

Labour Supply - The Details


Labour Market Components

Labour supply from: NILF - don’t want a job Employed Unemployed and NILF - want a job


NILF - Don’t want a job

A few questions to answer about those that don’t want a job: Where are these people located? What is their age distribution? Why don’t they want a job?


Don’t want a job: By region

Almost 30% of those 15 years of age and older in the Tli Cho are not in the labour force and do not want a job


Don’t want a job: By community type

The prevalence of persons not in the labour force and not wanting a job in small NWT communities is twice that of Yellowknife.


Don’t want a job: By age group

For the NWT as a whole, 44% of 15-19 year olds and 62% of those 60+ that are NILF don’t want a job. What about the 7% of 20-59 year olds?


Don’t want a job: By reason (20-59 year olds)

Family responsibilities, schooling, illness/disability, and retirement account for 82% of people 20-59 who are NILF and don’t want a job.


Employed

How can the employed be considered part of the available labour supply? The under-employed


Employed persons working 26 weeks or less, 2004

Of employed NWT residents, 22% worked 26 or fewer weeks in 2004, in the Deh Cho it was 37%.


Those working more than 26 weeks: 1999 and 2004

Diamond impacted communities showed the greatest increase in persons working more than 26 weeks between 1999 and 2004.


Labour Supply Defined

Some supply has, and will, come from the ranks of the under-employed, however…

Our definition of labour supply: The Unemployed Those not in the labour force, but wanting a job

But should we include everyone who is unemployed and/or wants a job?


Labour Supply: By component

Over half the territorial labour supply is made up of individuals not looking for work, but who want a job.


Labour Supply: by Age Group

As was seen with those persons who don’t want a job, age is a determinant of the ability and willingness of individuals to participate in the labour market.


Labour Supply: by Age and community type

The bulk of labour supply, in particular for those aged 20-59, resides in small communities.


Labour Supply (20-59 year olds)

GeographyEducation by Gender/Ethnicity and GeographyReasons for not looking for a job


Labour Supply: by region

At 28%, Yellowknife accounts for the largest share, by region, of total labour supply.


Labour Supply: by community type

Small NWT communities account for over 55% of total labour supply.


Labour Supply rate: by community

Labour supply as a proportion of total population 15 years of age and older.


Labour Supply: By Education (>high school), by gender

In all regions excepts the Deh Cho, the female component of the labour supply has a higher level of educational attainment


Labour Supply: Reasons for not looking for work, by gender

Caring for children was the most often cited reason for not looking for work, and it was most often cited by women.


Education (>high school): by ethnicity

Outside of Yellowknife, high school attainment is consistently low among aboriginal persons in the labour supply


Labour Supply: Reasons for not looking for work, by ethnicity

Caring for children, attending school, and the belief that no jobs are available were reasons most often cited by aboriginal persons, with a much higher prevalence than non-aboriginal persons.

Demand for NWT Labour Supply


MGP construction - Regional labour demand: 2008-2011

Average labour demand during construction is expected to be just over 4,000 per year, and about 6,200 during the peak year in the NWT.


Regional supply and average annual MGP demand

NWT supply has the potential to meet a little less than half of forecast MGP average annual construction demand.


Aging NWT population

Over the last six years, declining birth rates and an aging population have significantly closed the gap between pre-school aged children and those

60 years of age an older.


Forecast population growth rates

Over the next 20 years, the population share of those aged 60+ will double, while the share of those 20-59 will remain relatively constant.


Summary1

Labour supply comprises: the unemployed; and those not in the labour force (NILF) who want a job.

This definition can be further refined to include only the 20-59 year old age group

Labour supply can also come from the ranks of the employed - part-time or seasonal workers who expand their volume of work to meet demand

NWT labour supply: 55% resides primarily in small communities, of which almost 90% is aboriginal

Childcare, and the belief that no jobs are available are reasons cited as reasons for not looking for work

Of those with high school or greater, 52% is female Childcare is the most cited reason (22%) for not looking for work


Summary2

The NWT will encounter significant demand for labour resources over the next 10 years, and beyond, which will result in considerable demand and competition for labour resources.

There exists significant labour supply across most regions to support increased development, assuming that: Opportunities will exist for the segment of labour supply with low levels of

educational attainment (i.e., less than high school). Employment opportunities will be available where labour supply resides -

smaller communities - or those wanting employment will be willing, or able, to go to the work.

Female employment in mining and oil and gas in the NWT significantly exceed the current NWT and national averages of around 16%.


Contact Information

NWT Bureau of StatisticsDepartment of Executive

(867) 873 7147

[email protected]

www.stats.gov.nt.ca

NWT Labour Supply Bureau of Statistics July 5, 2006.

Documents

Transcript of NWT Labour Supply Bureau of Statistics July 5, 2006.