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NWS Binghamton Issued: 7/03/2013

10:00 AM

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NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY Flood Potential – Briefing #7

Issued 10:00 AM Wed 07/03/2013

FOR CENTRAL NY This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton, and Oneonta.

FOR NORTHEAST PA This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre.

This briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service Area only:

NWS Binghamton Warning Coordination Meteorologist

Dave Nicosia

Summary

High pressure off the east coast continues to build westward and is pushing the core of the deep tropical moisture a little west of region.

Scattered thunderstorms are still expected to develop this afternoon with the day’s heating and taper off this evening after sunset.

Locally there still is a chance for heavy rain and flash flood problems.

Potential for flash flooding is less than the last few days therefore flash flood watch has been allowed to expire.

RIVERS: Chenango and Tioughnioga continue to recede; Upper Mohawk continues near Moderate Flood and will remain nearly steady. Susquehanna River now NOT expected to flood in NY or PA.

No other river or lake flooding expected.

Deep Tropical Moisture Feed Tuesday

Blocking High Pressures

Tropical Moisture Feed

H H L

Core of Deep Tropical Moisture a little west of region Today.

Blocking High Pressures

Tropical Moisture Feed shifting west

H H L

RIVER FORECASTS AS OF 10 AM WED 7/3/13

Mohawk River • Utica (minor to

moderate)

No other points expected to exceed flood stage.

FOR LATEST UPDATES GO TO: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=bgm

With wet ground, how much rain would it take for Flash Flooding?

• Twin Tiers of NY/PA, and Mohawk Valley southward in NY: 0.6-1.0 inches in 1 hour, or 1.0 to 1.4 inches in 3 hours, could cause flash flooding.

• Rest of Central NY/Northeast PA: Generally 1-1.5 inches in 1 hour, or at least 1.5-2.0 inches in 3 hours, could cause flash flooding.

Flash Flood Rainfall Threshold for 1 hour Flash Flood Rainfall Threshold for 3 hours

Rainfall Timing

- Showers and thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon with the day’s heating and last into the evening.

- Thunderstorms will taper down after sunset. - For some spots heavy rain could fall and still cause

localized flash flooding. - Chances are less today for flash flooding. - Coverage expected to be greatest in the upper Finger

Lakes to upper Mohawk Valley near a frontal boundary. - Also mountains of northeast Pa to the Catskills will

have higher chances for thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm Outlook Today

Lowest probability of thunderstorms today

Maintain Situational Awareness

– General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm – Probability River Forecasts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/

Latest river stages and forecasts:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=BGM

Northeast Region Radar Loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

Other Links: