Numeracy for journos
-
Upload
j-t-tom-johnson -
Category
Documents
-
view
142 -
download
4
description
Transcript of Numeracy for journos
1
“Writing The Numbers”
Tom JohnsonInstitute for Analytic JournalismSanta Fe, New Mexicot o m @ j t j o h n s o n . c o m
2 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
“Theory of Journalistic Process
Every potential story has both quantitative and qualitative feedstock
Quantitative often essential for context; degree of change; historical evolution
3 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
“Theory of Journalistic Process
We teach the 5Ws & H; also drill into students: How many? How big? How much? How to measure change in these?
May decide NOT to use these, but must be part of research/reporting
4 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
"Theory of Journalistic Process"
Data In Analysis Info Out Find and retrieve data; (log URLs)
Always work with COPY of original downloaded data Always attach URL or other source notes
to data
5 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Basic "Theory of Process"
Maintain logbook of process and methods in cleaning and analyzing
Save dataviz product to use with story
6 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Massaging Data
Gather quantitative data Estimate Clean data Count and categorize Analyze
Categorical change (proportion) Change over time (% of change) Statistical relationships and significance
Write it!
7 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Think quantitatively; think visually
Numeric quantitative analysis: Add, subtract, multiply, divide Simple statistics, then more complex
Visual quantitative analysis: Chart and graphs Maps
Visual analysis = multiple values: Understand phenomena and its context Use visuals to show the story
8 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Putting words to the numbers
Writing numbers in first instance: <100 = hard numbers Btwn 100 and 1,000 % and hard data >1,000 percentage
Down in story, always supply hard numbers
Post ALL the data on the web; include URL at end of story
9 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Putting words to the numbers
Avoid placing two quantities side-by-side
“In 2010, 307,674 ticket-buyers showed up at the Mile-High Stadium.”
10 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Write with the flow of time
Western literacy culture thinks/moves left to right: Calendars (usually) Grade school “Age of Exploration” Timeline tools: sometimes vertical but
more often left to right. Ergo,
Construct sentences with numbers in “from past [data] present [data]” form
11 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Is there an editor in the house?
Source:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/us/20crime.html?scp=1&sq=arizona%20crime%20statistics&st=cse
“For instance, statistics show that even as Arizona’s population swelled, buoyed in part by illegal immigrants funneling across the border, violent crime rates declined, to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008, the most recent year for which comprehensive data is available from the F.B.I. In 2000, the rate was 532 incidents per 100,000.”
12 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Bad construction
Because most recent data is first, context is not apparent
The reader has to doubleback direction in the flow of time
Source:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/us/20crime.html?scp=1&sq=arizona%20crime%20statistics&st=cse
“For instance, statistics show that even as Arizona’s population swelled, buoyed in part by illegal immigrants funneling across the border, violent crime rates declined, to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008, …. In 2000, the rate was 532 incidents per 100,000.”
13 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Terrible sentence construction
What’s going up? What’s going down? “may ALSO be???” Reader is whip-sawed figuring out what came first; and where
are we now
Source:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/us/20crime.html?scp=1&sq=arizona%20crime%20statistics&st=cse
“But the rate for property crime … increased in the state to 4,082 per 100,000 residents in 2008 from 3,682 in 2000. Preliminary data for 2009 suggests that this rate may also be falling in the state’s biggest cities.”
14 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
But then comes the correction
Source:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/us/20crime.html?scp=1&sq=arizona%20crime%20statistics&st=cse
“For instance, statistics show that even as Arizona’s population swelled, buoyed in part by illegal immigrants funneling across the border, violent crime rates declined, to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008, the most recent year for which comprehensive data is available from the F.B.I. In 2000, the rate was 532 incidents per 100,000.”
…declined from 532 incidents per 100,000 in 2000 to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008
Correction: June 27, 2010
“An article last Sunday about the debate over immigration reform and how people’s perceptions sometimes run counter to crime statistics misstated the change in property crimes in Arizona between 2000 and 2008. The number of property crimes went down, not up.”
15 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
But then comes the correction
Source:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/us/20crime.html?scp=1&sq=arizona%20crime%20statistics&st=cse
“For instance, statistics show that even as Arizona’s population swelled, buoyed in part by illegal immigrants funneling across the border, violent crime rates declined, to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008, the most recent year for which comprehensive data is available from the F.B.I. In 2000, the rate was 532 incidents per 100,000.”
REWRITE
…declined from 532 incidents per 100,000 in 2000 to 447 incidents per 100,000 residents in 2008.
16 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Bad construction
What’s the % of change? Would it help to literally see a trend
line?
Source:http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/20/us/20crime.html?scp=1&sq=arizona%20crime%20statistics&st=cse
“Nationally, the crime rate declined to 455 incidents per 100,000 people, from 507 in 2000.”
17 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Quant. Analysis improves writing
Clumsy writing can be avoided if reporter first builds a vertical bar graph
18 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
The “Fundamental Five” Statistics
1. Calculating percent of change (New-Old) ÷ Old * 100 or ((new/old) –1) * 100
2. Calculating proportion: (# of parts ÷ TOTAL # of parts) * 100
= % of whole
19 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
The “Fundamental Five” Statistics
3. Calculating Rates:(incidents ÷ population) * 10,000 (or 100,000)
4. Calculating Ratios: Take first of two numbers being
compared and divide by second. 600 ÷ 30 = 20 [Ratio is 20-to-1; if
fraction, round off]
20 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
The “Fundamental Five” Statistics
5. Calculating Inflation: (CPI Now ÷ CPI Then) * Item Price Then =
Item then in today’s $$$[Tool: http://www.westegg.com/inflation/]
Calculating INFLATION RATECPI in 2000 is 3,500 CPI in 2001 is 4,500 What's the inflation rate?
4500 - 3500 = 10001000/3500 = .2857.....2857 * 100 = 28.57 is the INFLATION RATE
21 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Some resources
Numeracy in the Newsroom http://newsnumeracy.wordpress.com/
Math and Statistics Toolbox Cards for Journalistshttp://www.notrainnogain.org/Train/Exer/Num/NUME.asp
175+ Data and Information Visualization Examples and Resourcehttp://www.meryl.net/2008/01/22/175-data-and-information-visualization-examples-and-resources/
22 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Resources: Statistics
Niles, Robert. "Statistics Every Writer Should Know“http://www.robertniles.com/stats/
IRE Tipsheets: http://www.ire.org/resourcecenter/tipsheets.php
23 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
Resources: Data Visualization
FlowingData: http://flowingdata.com/ Flowing Data
http://flowingdata.com/2010/07/22/7-basic-rules-for-making-charts-and-graphs/
InfoViz Wiki:"Data Visualization Links“http://www.infovis-wiki.net/index.php?title=Data_Visualization_Link
24 AEJMC-Denver 2010 © J.T.Johnson 2008________________________August 2010
PowerPoint file at:
slideshare.net/jtjohnson/numeracy-for-journos
Tom JohnsonInstitute for Analytic JournalismSanta Fe, New Mexicot o m @ j t j o h n s o n . c o m