Nuclear’s Contribution to a 2050 Low Carbon Energy System
Transcript of Nuclear’s Contribution to a 2050 Low Carbon Energy System
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Nuclear’s Contribution to a 2050 Low Carbon Energy System
Presentation To The All Party Parliamentary Nuclear Energy Group 19th October 2015
Mike Middleton – Energy Technologies Institute
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Introduction to the ETI organisation
.
• The Energy Technologies Institute (ETI) is a public-private partnership between global industries and UK Government
Delivering...
• Targeted development, demonstration and de-risking of new technologies for affordable and secure energy
• Shared risk ETI programme associate
ETI members
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What does the ETI do?
System level strategic planning
Technology development & demonstration
Delivering knowledge &
innovation
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Typical ESME Outputs
EnergySystemModellingEnvironment
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2010(Historic)
2020 2030 2040 2050
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Mt C
O2/y
ear
DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4
International Aviation & ShippingTransport SectorBuildings SectorPower SectorIndustry SectorBiocreditsProcess & other CO2
Notes:•Usual sequence in the least-cost system design is for the power sector to decarbonise first, followed by heat and then transport sectors•“Biocredits” includes some pure accounting measures, as well as genuine negative emissions from biomass CCS.
Typical ETI Transition Scenario
Net UK CO2 Emissions
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010(Historic)
2020 2030 2040 2050
GW
DB v3.4 / Optimiser v3.4
Geothermal PlantWave PowerTidal StreamHydro PowerMicro Solar PVLarge Scale Ground Mounted Solar PVOnshore WindOffshore WindH2 TurbineAnaerobic Digestion CHP PlantEnergy from WasteIGCC Biomass with CCSBiomass Fired GenerationNuclearCCGT with CCSCCGTIGCC Coal with CCSPC CoalGas Macro CHPOil Fired GenerationInterconnectors
Notes:•Nuclear a key base load power technology. Almost always deployed to maximum (40GW)•Big increase in 2040s is partly due to increased demand (for heating and transport), and partly because the additional renewables need backup
Typical Scenario
Installed Electrical Generation Capacity
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Can Small Nuclear Build A Niche Within The UK Energy System?
Small Nuclear Large Nuclear
For SMRs to be deployed in UK:• technology development to be
completed• range of approvals and consents to
be secured• sufficient public acceptance of
technology deployment at expected locations against either knowledge or ignorance of alternatives
• deployment economically attractive to o reactor vendorsoutilities and investorso consumers & taxpayers
Realistic objective for SMRs to be economically attractive to all stakeholders
FID – Final Investment Decision
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Containment structure
Reactor vessel
Turbine
Condenser
Generator
Steam GeneratorControl rods
Single Revenue Stream Multiple Revenue Streams
1. BaseloadElectricity
1. BaseloadElectricity
2. Variable Electricity To Aid Grid Balancing
Waste Heat Rejected To The Environment 3. Heat Recovery To Energise District
Heating Systems
Niche For Small Nuclear In The UK?
Containment structure
Reactor vessel
Turbine
Condenser
Generator
Steam GeneratorControl rods
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Heat demand variability in 2010 – Unattractive to electrify it all
Hea
t / E
lect
ricity
(G
W)
0
50
100
150
250
200
Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10
HeatElectricity
Design pointfor a GB heat delivery system
Design pointfor a GB electricity delivery system
GB 2010 heat and electricity hourly demand variability - commercial & domestic buildingsR. Sansom, Imperial College
Heat demand
Electricity demand
Decarbonising Heat Is Challenging
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ETI Projects Delivered
Power Plant Siting Study (PPSS)
• Explore UK capacity for new nuclear based on siting constraints
• Consider competition for development sites between nuclear and thermal with CCS
• Undertake a range of related sensitivity studies
• Identify potential capacity for small nuclear based on existing constraints and using sites unsuitable for large nuclear
• Project schedule June 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Atkins for ETI following
competitive open procurement process
System Requirements For Alternative Nuclear Technologies (ANT)• Develop a high level functional requirement
specification for a “black box” power plant for– baseload electricity– heat to energise district heating systems, and– further flexible electricity to aid grid balancing
• Develop high level business case with development costs, unit costs and unit revenues necessary for deployment to be attractive to utilities and investors
• Project schedule August 2014 to Aug 2015• Delivered by Mott MacDonald for ETI following
competitive open procurement process• Outputs to be used in ETI scenario analysis to
determine attractiveness of such an SMR “black box” power plant to the UK low carbon energy system
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Data From The ETI Power Plant Siting Study
Capacity constraints applied in ESME
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Data Applied Within ESME From ANT Project
Project data used to create ESME data file for SMRs:• CAPEX: Base case £4500/kW for N’th Of A Kind
– Uplift for CHP: £200/kWe• OPEX: £105/kWe (by 2050)• First Operations Date: Base Case 2030• Construction Period: 3yrs• Build Out Rate: (from first operations) 400MWe/yr for 10 years, then
1.2 GWe/yr• Regional site capacity: 21 GWe total distributed across England and Wales• Power downrate during CHP heat take off: 20%
• The ANT project has been independent of reactor vendors• the report has been peer reviewed• There are uncertainties regarding the future costs and timescales for UK SMR deployment
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Updated ESME Baseline – Capacity with35 GWe Large Gen III+ with SMRs available
2050 Nuclear Capacity• 1 GWe legacy (SZB)• 35 GWe Gen III+• 16 GWe CHP SMRs
SMR deployment capacity influenced by:• Speed to first UK SMR operations • Capital cost (£/kWe)
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Impact On Cost Of System Transition - SMRs
Abatement Cost• Energy system costs would be incurred even if no carbon targets• Abatement cost is additional cost for low-carbon solution to given set of demands
ESMEv3.4 Baseline (with District Heating available but without SMRs deployed)• Annual abatement cost by 2050 - £58.24 Bn/yr• Equivalent to 1.55% of GDP
Key messages from table below:• RHS – reduction in system cost where CHP SMRs energise District Heat networks• LHS – significantly higher system cost without District Heating • Scenario – UK SMR first plant starting operations in 2030 with CAPEX of £4500/kWe
Annual Cost Of Abatement in 2050 (£bn/year) and as % of GDP
Approach to decarbonising heat WITHOUT District Heating WITH District Heating
Abatement Cost/year £64.7 Bn £54.6 BnAbatement as % of GDP 1.72% 1.45%
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ETI’s Nuclear Insights - Key Messages
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