Nuclear stagnation in Europe Social acceptance and liberalisation: The...

Nuclear stagnation in EuropeSocial acceptance and liberalisation:

The German case

A report by Stefan Kubsky, Paris, France

International SeminarTHE RE-EMERGENCE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY:

AN OPTION FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND EMERGING COUNTRIES?

April 19-20, de Seminarios Ignacio Chavez , UNAM,Organized by

The UNAM Institute for Economic Research (IIEC); Electricité de France (EDF) and The Mexican Association for Energy and Sustainable Development (AMEDES)

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Outline:• Nuclear energy in Germany:

– present situation overview / installed plants– Nuclear phase out by law: „Atomgesetz“ (AtG)– Governmental measures on energy market : Ecological tax reform, Emissions

trading, Law on renewable energies (EEG)– Price: Components, evolution and international comparison

• Political positions and social acceptance– Government: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and

Nuclear Safety (BMU, 2006)– Non governmental organisations (NGOs): Some positions– Public opinion towards nuclear and environment (EUROBAROMETER opinion

polls)• Motor of Change in societal attitude in Germany: Education

– Some definitions reflecting the holistic approach in Germany– Examples of material actually used in schools

• Media and opinion: some recent examples for the nuclear debate in german media

• Conclusions

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Present situation overview

Source:Teilbericht: Strompreisszenarien und Strompreisvergleich, Gutachten für das Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsiche Reaktorsicherheit heit by Prof. Dr. Uwe Leprich, Institut für ZukunftsEnergieSysteme ( IZES), Saarbrücken, Oktober 2004

Primary energy production

Brutto Electricity production

Source:”Energieversorgung für Deutschland, Statusbericht für den Energiegipfel am 3. April 2006“, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie, Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit, Berlin, 3/2006

Nuclear,can be evenhigher: up to 50%

Nuclear

4Source:”Energieversorgung für Deutschland, Statusbericht für den Energiegipfel am 3. April 2006“, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie, Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit, Berlin, 3/2006

Economic growth and primary energy consumption in Germany: Decoupled!

Present situation overview:

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Nuclear energy in Germany: present situation / nuclear power plants (NPP)…The Kahl Experimental Atomic Power Plant (VAK) on the River Main was the first nuclear power plant in Germany that had been commercially ordered, constructed and operated …Decommissioning has been goingon since 1988 and has progressed very farto this date.The decommissioning of the VAK is typical for the dismantling of larger power reactors, too. This concerns e. g. the duration of the decommissioning process, from final shutdown to the complete removal ofthe plant: in the case of the VAK, decommissioningwill most likely take about 20 years…

17 remaining NPPs

Source:DECOMMISSIONING OF NUCLEAR FACILITIES, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Public Relations Dept.,11055 Berlin

2005

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German Nuclear phase-out by law (Atomgesetz):

The German „Atomgesetz“ (AtG) has been last modified in 2002 according to an agreement with all national suppliers of nuclear energy, signed on June 11th 2001:

Some key features: (translation by KUB)

Limitation of activity of existing NPPs according to a calculus which bases on a standard usage of 32 years from beginning of commercial use and average electricity production values in the past

The government will not take measures to discriminate use of nuclear energy (this includes taxation) but increase financial coverage to 5 billion DM (~2,5 billion �)

From 1st july 2005 on, reprocessing is discontinued, only storage allowed

The signing parties accept that government will implement an interdiction to built newNPPs and an obligation for suppliers to build up intermediate repositories close to the sites, according to safety regulations

Source: Vereinbarung zwischen der Bundesregierung und den Energieversorgungsunternehmen vom 14. Juni 2000, Berlin; BUM

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German Nuclear phase-out by law (AtG):

Source:”Energieversorgung für Deutschland, Statusbericht für den Energiegipfel am 3. April 2006“, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie, Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit, Berlin, 3/2006, p. 71

A graphical representation of the remaining energy to be produced by NPPs, according to law:

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Governmental measures on energy market : Ecological Tax Reform (ETR) 1999 >

Source:The ecological tax reform:introduction, continuation and development into an ecological fiscal reform, Bundesumweltministerium, rev. 2/2004

ETR was launched by the federal government in 1999 with the objectives to:

• Save energy

• Imrove energy efficiency

• Promote renewable energy sources in the context of nuclear phase-out

• Climate protection

• Creation of new jobs

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Governmental measures on energy market : Emissions trading (2005>)

Emissions trading started in 2005:

„Of the six greenhouse gases named in the Kyoto Protocol and listed in Annex II of the Directive[2003/87/EC], Annex I initially restricts its field of reference to carbon dioxide (CO2). This means that emissions trading in the first trading period 2005-2007 will be confined to CO2 emissions…

…Article 9 of the Directive requires each Member State to publish a National Allocation Plan by 31March 2004 and to notify it to the EU Commission and the other Member States…

…The German government will allocate 100% of ist allowances free of charge…

…In line with Art. 11 of the Directive, the decision allocating allowances to plant operatorsmust be taken at least three months before the relevant trading period begins, which inthe case of 2005–2007 means by 30 September 2004. The allowances will be issued in annual tranches by 28 February of the year in question. The allowances can then be traded freely within the EU…“

Source: National Allocation Plan for the Federal Republic of Germany,2005-2007,Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Berlin, 31 March 2004,Translation: 07 May 2004

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Governmental measures on energy market : Emissions trading (2005>)

Source: ”Die Ökologische Steuerreform im Überblick“, Umweltbundesamt, Postfach 1406, D- 06813 Dessau, 12/2002

• Power plants and Industry are main subjet to eco-tax

• One allowance („emission reduction unit“) gives the right for emission of 1ton CO2 for 2005-2007

• In 2005, 1485 emission allowances have been distributed with a repartition of 21% for industry and 79% for energy installallations

• NPPs are explicitly excluded from the scheme

• Very recently, (april 12 2006), government decided to shift the emission allowance policy towards industry and away from electricity producers for the next phase

• �� Quarrels !

EU-wide free trade:Emission allowance price evolution during the first year (3/2005-2/2006)


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Governmental measures on energy market: Law on renewable energies (EEG) 4/2000>

EEG from 2001 main contents:

Obliges public power suppliers to • connect all suppliers of electricity from renewable energy to their grid and• to feed all electricity offered by those into their grid and• to refund the respective supplier according to minimum rates, fixed by law

Source: UMWELTPOLITIK: ERNEUERBARE ENERGIEN IN ZAHLEN- NATIONALE UND INTERNATIONALE ENTWICKLUNG, June 2005, Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (BMU)

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Electricity price: Components

Electricity price structure for an average household in Germany 2005:

Source:”Energieversorgung für Deutschland, Statusbericht für den Energiegipfel am 3. April 2006“, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie, Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit, Berlin, 3/2006, p.46

Grid

Generation andMarketing

VAT

Electricity tax

Concession fee

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Electricity price evolution

Note that tha electricity market in Germany has a high concentration: ~80% held by only four companiesElectricity price evolution for an average household in Germany:


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Electricity price evolution (1998-2006): international comparison

Electricity price evolution for industrial consumers (>300 Mio. kWh/a) in Germany in comparison to other EU-countries: Germany at average!


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Political positions and social acceptanceGovernment: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)

(3) Political DevelopmentIn the past, a technical and scientific environment was established with state funds in Germany which created the foundations through corresponding research and development not only for electricity production by means of nuclear power but also for the associated fuel cycle, waste treatment and the preparations necessary for the final disposal of radioactive waste. In this context, a safety concept was developed for all of the above-mentioned nuclear facilities.Following the euphoria of the Fifties and Sixties, scepticism towards nuclear power began to grow in Germany. Increasing numbers of citizens became opposed to the risks of atomic energy, and in particular the further expansion of nuclear power plants. Names such as Wyhl/Brokdorf (nuclear power plants), Gorleben (waste management centre), Wackersdorf (reprocessing) and Kalkar (fast breeder) have become synonymous with this protest movement. By the time of the accident in Harrisburg in 1979 and finally the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, it had become clear that the risks of nuclear power are not merely theoretical. These events strengthened opposition to the use of nuclear power; and with no further major projects in the pipeline, resistance was directed instead primarily against the transportation of nuclear materials, and particularly the interim storage facilities at Ahaus and Gorleben.Mindful of the fact that both human life and public health are protected under the German constitution, the Federal Republic of Germany will phase out in a carefully coordinated process the use of nuclear energy for the commercial generation of electricity due to the associated risks. The unresolved issue of the disposal of high-active waste is seen by the Federal Republic of Germany as a further reason for a nuclear phase-out. This is demonstrated by the fact that so far there is no corresponding repository in operation world-wide. The protection of life, physical integrity, public health and of the natural resources needed to sustain life demands that radioactive waste must be stored safely in perpetuity in such a way that it is separated from the biosphere. It is only by such safe storage that it can be guaranteed that the radioactive waste will not be an inadmissible burden on future generations. With this in mind, the phase-out of nuclear power also aims to at least limit the production of further radioactive waste from facilities dedicated to the commercial use of nuclear power so that the risk of such a burden is reduced…

Source:”Joint Convention on the safety of spent Fuel Management and on safety of Radioactive Waste Management”, Report under the JointConvention by the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany for the Second Review Meeting in May 2006; Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), Public Relations Division, D – 11055 Berlin, p. 11, highlighting by KUB

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Political positions and social acceptanceGovernment: Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)

…In the Federal Republic of Germany, the Basic Law (GG) [GG 49] sets forth the principles of a

democratic social order, namely the government's responsibility to protect life and health and natural

resources needed to sustain life, the separation of powers, the independence of licensing and

supervisory authorities, and the supervision of administrative actions by independent courts….

Source:”Joint Convention on the safety of spent Fuel Management and on safety of Radioactive Waste Management”, Report under the JointConvention by the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany for the Second Review Meeting in May 2006; Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), Public Relations Division, D – 11055 Berlin, p. 11, highlighting by KUB

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Political positions and social acceptanceSuppliers of nuclear energy positions:

Some Arguments:• Renewables cannot replace nuclear in the near future without impeding the envisaged reduction of CO2-

emission rates• Nuclear technology has evolved and is indeed (inherently) safe and environmentally friendly (e.g. EPR)• Safe disposal of nuclear waste is possible• The swedish nuclear phase-out programm for example is somewhat deadlocked• The recent finnish decision to build an new NPP should be regarded as an example• The caracteristics and safety (risk assesment) of NPP are NOT in contradiction with the aims of

government and german constitution • Public opinion is NOT as strict against nuclear as often reported (see opinion polls)

Sources: “Argumente”, 01.10.2002, and February 2004 and 18.12.2003 by FRAMATOME ANP GmbH, Postfach 3220, 91 0505 Erlangen, GermanyGraphics: ”Energieversorgung für Deutschland, Statusbericht für den Energiegipfel am 3. April 2006“, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie, Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit, Berlin, 3/2006

Brutto electricity production in Germany

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Political positions and social acceptanceNon governmental organisations (NGOs) positionsSome Arguments:

• Example 1: Green Party (only partially NGO...)• Nuclear remains a „risk technology“• We don‘t know how to safely dispose off nuclear waste for 10000 years• Nuclear phase-out is a stepwise process, inline we build up a new pillar, the renewables• Emmision-trading establishes caclubale economical circumstances for industry and thus helps

modernise the PP-structure• Our claim is „EEE“ : Energy saving, Efficient use of energy and Renewable energy

• Example 2: A learned Society: German Physical Society• Climate protection aim to reduce CO2 emissions by 25% from 1995 to 2005 is being missed• Longer operation of NPPs seems thus inescapable if CO2 emissions to be further reduced• Germany should promote installation of solar-thermal plants in southern countries (e.g. North Africa)

and try to establish a powerful transfer-grid structure• Kyoto-protocol is a first (positive) step, but one needs to care about the feasibility of claims• Highest potential to reduce CO2 emissions : modern, fossil fuel plants with CO2 deposition,

renewables, nuclear and solar-thermal plants• 35% instead of 20% CO2 emissions reduction only feasible if lifetime of NPPs is longer than

foreseen by actual lawSources: Bündnis 90/ Die Grünen, profil:Grün, umweltgerecht, Interview with Jürgen Trittin (Minister at that time) and Dr. Reinhard Loske, <2006 andGerman Physical Society, in Physik Journal 4 (2005), Nr. 12, p.6

19Sources: Radioactive waste Fieldwork : February- March 2005, Publication : September 2005, Special Eurobarometer 227 / Wave 63.2 – TNS Opinion & Social, This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors.

Political positions and social acceptancePublic opinion towards nuclear and environment (EU opinion polls)Overview employing sociometric data about public opinion, provided by EUROBAROMETER

Q:”Are you totally in favour, fairly in favour, fairly opposed or totally opposed to energy produced by nuclear power stations?”:Germans at average, but lagre variations in EU

NOYES

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Political positions and social acceptancePublic opinion towards nuclear and environment (EU opinion polls)

It is important to categorise attidute in terms of verbally formulated questions and to compare results internationally. Some results extracted from polls in textform:

• Q:“How well informed do you think you are about radioactive waste?“ : Germans with 36% by 11% higher than EU average, behind SE,SI,FI,NL. (not shown)

• Q:“An advantage of nuclear power is that it produces less greenhouse gas emissions than other energy sources such as oil or coal“: Germans say „yes“

Sources: Radioactive waste Fieldwork : February- March 2005, Publication : September 2005, Special Eurobarometer 227 / Wave 63.2 – TNS Opinion & Social, This document does not represent the point of view of the European Commission. The interpretations and opinions contained in it are solely those of the authors.

YES NO

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Political positions and social acceptancePublic opinion towards nuclear and environment (EU opinion polls): Some Conclusions


• As regards information about the management of radioactive waste, citizens of the European Union would trust independent or noninstitutional sources of information, mainly NGOs active in environmental protection (39%) or independent scientists (38%). Institutional sources or the authorities are mentioned next: the national agencies responsible for radioactive waste (26%), national governments (19%) or the European Union (14%).

Whom do you trust when it’s about nuclear waste?

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Political positions and social acceptancePublic opinion towards nuclear and environment (EU opinion polls): More Conclusions


• Across the European Union, 37% of interviewees say that they are in favour of nuclear energy while 55% are against it, 24% emphatically so. Opinions on this matter vary greatly from one Member State to another. Almost two thirds of Swedes and Hungarians support nuclear energy, while nearly nine out of ten oppose it in Greece and Austria. It is also is important to note that 57% of opponents of energy nuclear would remain so even if the problems of radioactive waste were resolved.

• For a vast majority of citizens of the European Union, radioactive waste represents a risk. It is important to note that citizens who consider themselves well-informed about radioactive waste see fewer risks in general associated with this type of waste.

• As regards the management of radioactive waste, citizens are almost unanimous as to the need for there to be no further delay in setting up a national strategy for high-level radioactive waste. They are also aware of the political difficulty of taking decisions on the treatment of dangerous waste, and think that the lack of a decision on this subject proves that there is no safe way of getting rid of this type of waste.[…]

• Finally, almost all citizens of the European Union recognise the importance of Member States establishing not only a timetable but also harmonised strategies supervised by the European Union in order to set up management policies for their radioactive waste. Respondents' opinions are thus in line with the intentions of the European Union,[…]

�� Is there a deep reflection in EU societies?!

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Motor of Change in societal attitude in Germany: EducationSome definitions reflecting the holistic approach in Germany

Source:”Informationen zur politischen Bildung”, 287/2005, Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, Adneauerallee 86, 53113 Bonn, Germany;www.bpb.de, translation by KUB

• „Environmental Knowledge“ describes the level of acknowledgement and information of a

person about environment, nature, trands and developments in ecologically oriented fields of

attention

• „Environmental attitude“ comprises as well fears, disgust, anger, consternation and

personal basic values with respect to environment

• „Environmental behaviour“ means individual behaviour in relevant every-day situations

• Nota bene: Intentions and preparedness differ again from the above definitions

• „Environmental consciousness“ comprises all above terms

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Motor of Change in societal attitude in Germany: EducationExample of material and measures actually used in german schools

• E.g. „pupil‘s contest“ to save energy and profit directly for own school (schoolyard, sport facilities...)

• Wealth of Information and actual lesson planning aid fro teachers on energy and environment (Didactics / Technology (What and How?) / Material)

Source:CD-ROM Handbuch Energie; “Energieeinsparung in Schulen in NRW”, Ministerium für Wirtschaft, Mittelstand, Technologie und Verkehr des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen, May 1999

energy definitions, units measure your own consumption analyse your own household

�� “Seed“ for environmental consciousness, continued in Universities...

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Media and opinion: some recent examples for the nuclear debate in german media

Sources: German television “Tagesschau”; april 2006, www.tagesschau.de; and Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung, 03.04.2006

Some selected headlines in translation (KUB)

• „Uranium-an energy source for centuries?“: „The return of a resource“, „Search inforced“, „More Uranium, less consumption“, „Request higher than supply“, 04/2006

• „Nuclear, coal or renewable energies?“,“BDI and CDU want nuclear“, „Coal as homelike resource“, 01/2006

• „Quarrel about nuclear phase-out again aroused“, 04/2006

• „Bush pro more nuclear worldwide“, „no new NPPs in US for 3 decades“, „re-entry in reprocessing“, „nuclear partnerships with developing countries“; 2/2006

• „Energy with long halflife“, „proponents praise safe supply and CO2-balance“, „criticists emphasize risk of accident“, „Unresolved: the growing problem of nuclear waste“; 02/2006

A typical „german“ image when nuclear is adressed:

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Conclusions

• German government: Strong impact on electricity market by law: AtG,…• Governmental position is nuclear phase-out (2006)• Electricity price levels remain in comparable range with respect to neighbour countries• High educational level may lead to deeper evaluation and social acceptance of

technologies, including nuclear (see e.g. EU polls).• In public opinion, nuclear energy is often seen as a „necessary evil for the time being“,

waste issues felt unresolved and sceptisism remains, even if so.• „Environmental“ Education in german school system is strongly implemented• German media debateabout nuclear is intense and multilateral on local, national and

international scale

Personal remarks from an engineer‘s perspective:• Enhance technology and knowledge (educational! ) transfer towards developing countries

such as Mx? Are there things to improve?• Schemes like PPP (or the like) applicable in Mx (e.g. LED-technology, most modern air

conditioning?,…): Take measures to save energy, to implement proactive demand management (see also UNEP position) possible?

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But it is already there...

Source: Energia Hoy, Abril 2006, p.24/25

Muchas Gracias !

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Additional Information (1)

Source: UMWELTPOLITIK: ERNEUERBARE ENERGIEN IN ZAHLEN- NATIONALE UND INTERNATIONALE ENTWICKLUNG, June 2005, Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit (BMU), p. 29

Astonishing: France is in advance in renewables

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Public opinion towards nuclear and environmentNever mind the German activists, they are still there (see mid april 2006 demonstration in Cherbourg (France) against Flamanville NPP project

Source: Einstellungen zur Kernenergie im EU-Vergleich: Klaffen Eliten und Öffentlichkeit wieder auseinander?, Lecture by Dr Nicholas Watts FRSA, London Metropolitan University at Freie Universität Berlin, 2005/2006

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