Nuclear proliferation and geopolitical issues of Iran and ... · Iran’s Geopolitical Influence...
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Nuclear proliferation and geopolitical issues of
Iran and Middle East
Kazuto Suzuki
United Nations
Panel of Experts on Iran
Paris
16 March 2015
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Overview
Historical background of Iranian nuclear proliferation
UN sanctions and unilateral sanctions
Iran’s regional influence
Current negotiation and its prospects
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Historical Background
Iran’s nuclear development began in 1950s with help from the United States • Atoms for Peace
• Nationalisation of Anglo-Persian Oil Company by Mossaddegh and Coup d’etat in 1953
• Western interests to keep Pahlavi regime
Number of Iranian studies nuclear technologies in United States • Foreign Minister Zarif and Director of Atomic Energy
Oraganisation of Iran Salehi were educated in the US
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Historical Background
Iran signed (1968) and ratified (1970) Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
Iran has been the subject of Comprehensive Safeguard Agreement (CSA)
Bushehr nuclear power plant constructed in 1975 by German companies
• Took over by Russia in 1995
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Historical Background
1979 Islamic Revolution
• Continued to commit to NPT
1980-88 Iran-Iraq War
• Iraq’s use of Chemical Weapons
• Ayatollah Khomeini refrained from using counter measures
1981 Operation “Opera”
• Israeli attack on Iraqi Osirak nuclear reactor, developed by France
• It was believed to be for peaceful purpose but Israeli and Iranian concerned potential for military use
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Historical Background
Late 1980s Contact with A.Q. Khan
• Acquiring enrichment technology
2002 Dissident Iranian group revealed secret sites • Natanz enrichment facilities
• Arak heavy-water reactor, producing plutonium
2003-2006 negotiation with EU3
• Iran agreed for IAEA inspections with Additional Protocol (signed in 2003), but failed to comply
• 2005 Iran offered voluntary suspension of enrichment but rejected by US pressure
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UN Sanctions
UN Security Council Resolution 1737 (2006) • Establish Sanctions Committee
• Target sanctions on enrichment, heavy-water and reprocessing activities
• Designate individuals and entities for asset freeze and travel ban
UNSCR 1747 (2007) • Prohibit export of “any arms” from Iran
• Designate Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) individuals and entities
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UN Sanctions
UNSCR 1803 (2008)
• Reemphasis target sanctions
UNSCR 1929 (2010)
• Establish Panel of Experts
• Prohibit import of heavy weapon to Iran
• Tighter control on nuclear and delivery system development
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Unilateral Sanctions
European Union • 2010 Council Decision (2010/413/CFSP)
Arms embargo
Dual-use items
Restriction on insurances
• 2012 Council Decision (2012/35/CFSP) Oil embargo
• 2012 Council Decision (2012/152/CFSP) Cutting off from SWIFT
Most comprehensive list and wide scoped sanctions
SWIFT ban, Insurance restriction and oil embargo deeply affected Iranian economy
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Unilateral Sanctions
United States • Continuing sanctions from 19792006 Designation of banks
prohibiting to trade in dollars
• 2010 CISADA Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act Prohibition of foreign exchange
• 2012 IFCA Iran Freedom and Counter-proliferation Act Prohibition of financing to Iran by foreign financial institutions
Very complex sanctions mechanism but most powerful Executive Orders and Federal Law – requires agreement
from Congress Extraterritorial application
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Iran’s Geopolitical
Influence
Export of Islamic Revolution
• IRGC as guardian and exporter of revolution
Traumatic experience of Iran-Iraq war
• Islamic forces dominated the internal politics
• Theological governing institutions
Sectarian conflicts
• Leader of Shia Islam vs. Sunni Islam
Global “jihad” against United States and Israel
• Terrorism during 1980s and 90s 11
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Iran’s Geopolitical
Influence
Lebanon • Influence on Hezbollah
Frontline for the fight against Israel
Weak government and ethnic/religious division
• 1983 US Embassy bombing Iran-Hezbollah link to sabotage covert operation
• 2006 War between Hezbollah and Israel Arms export from Iran (Fajr missiles ranging 70-75km)
• Fight against Jihadists Iran’s Secretary of Supreme National Security Council, Ali
Shamkhani visited Beirut and offered “military gift” to Lebanese government
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Iran’s Geopolitical
Influence
Syria
• Supporting Assad Regime
Through funding and military support
Oil supply
• Used as weapon factory
Missile development through SSRC (Syria Scientific Studies and Research Centre)
Production of tanks and heavy weapons
• Route of procurement
• Fight against Daesh gave legitimacy to the support
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Iran’s Geopolitical
Influence
Yemen
• Reintegration of Yemen in 1990
Sectarian division remained in place
Shia dominant North was richer than Sunni dominant South
• Continued civil war
Difficulties of integrating two societies
• Emergence of Jihadist and Houthis
Al-Qaida of Arabian Peninsula
Houthis, led by Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi • Emerged as a Shia student group
• Supported by Iran (mainly arms exports) 14
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Iran’s Geopolitical
Influence
Bahrain
• Sectarian division
Majority of population – Shia
Governing population – Sunni
• Since the “Arab Spring”, upraise against Sunni minority became eminent
• Majority of Shia is influence by Iraqi Shia
• Although Iran has limited influence, it is considered that Iran provide arms to the rebel group
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Iran’s Geopolitical
Influence
Iraq
• Arch-enemy of Iran during Saddam’s regime
• Iraq War (2003) and following confusion led Shia government (Al-Maliki and Al-Abadi)
• Emergence of Daesh
Confusion of Iraqi forces – sectarian division
Brutality and rapid expansion of ISIS
• Iran come to fight against Daesh – IRGC Quds Force
Commander Qasem Soleimani became a commander of coalition of Iraqi forces, Peshmerga and Shia militia
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Iran’s Geopolitical
Influence
After the “Arab Spring”, Iran became the central player in the Middle East
Through its sectarian network, Iran extended its influence
As a result, Iran has been successful for exporting its revolutionary ideas
Fight against Daesh justified Iran’s expansion of influence
Although arms exports are prohibited, many countries kept their eyes shut
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P5+1 Negotiation
Since Rouhani came to Presidency, the attitude of Iran has changed significantly
• P5+1 continued to negotiate from 2006 but there was no progress during Ahmadinejad period
Impact of sanctions brought Iran to the table
• Strong popular support for sanctions lifting
• Support by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei
2013 Joint Plan of Action (JPOA)
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P5+1 Negotiation
Progress has made since JPOA but there are still some contentious issues
• Breakout time
Time to require producing a nuclear bomb – US demands for more than one year – reducing stockpile, oxidizing UF6 and reducing number of centrifuges
• Lifting sanctions
Iran demands for lifting all sanctions – difficulties of getting agreement from Congress
Sanctions include arms embargo – allowing Iran to supply arms to Iraq while preventing to Hezbollah?
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Potential Confusion
P5+1 Agreement
• JPOA prohibits enrichment over 5% and no further advances in Natanz, Fordow or Arak
No prohibition of enrichment activities below 5%
• Comprehensive agreement, if any, may also allow certain level of enrichment activities
UN Resolutions
• Prohibited activities by UN resolutions include: “all reprocessing, heavy water-related and enrichment related activities”
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Conclusion
Proliferation challenge
• Iran as a threshold country challenged NPT regime
• Successful case of NPT if negotiation concludes
Iranian regional ambition
• Even without nuclear power, Iran has regional ambition
• Emergence of Jihadists changed the role of Iran
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Conclusion
Changing dynamics of the region • Weak presence of Gulf States including Saudi
Arabia
• Lower demand of oil due to Shale gas revolution
• Sectarian divide complicate geopolitical affairs Enemy of Daesh is friend of Iran?
• Israel against negotiation Crisis in relationship with the United States?
• Apres-”Arab Spring” Destabilisation would be a norm of the region
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