NUCLEAR POWER: THE FOUR TRANSITIONS
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Transcript of NUCLEAR POWER: THE FOUR TRANSITIONS
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Leonam dos Santos Guimarães
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443 operating NPPs today443 operating NPPs today
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Producing 11% of world electricityProducing 11% of world electricity
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Taking part of theTaking part of theEnergy matrix ofEnergy matrix of31 countries31 countries
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Without forgetting ...Without forgetting ...
248 research reactors in 56 countries248 research reactors in 56 countries
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and 180 reactors moving 140 shipsand 180 reactors moving 140 shipsand submarines in 6 countries ...and submarines in 6 countries ...
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67 NPPS being built in 15 countries67 NPPS being built in 15 countries2005 - 2015: 41 new connections to the grid2005 - 2015: 41 new connections to the grid
ANGRA 3ANGRA 3
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Brazil:Brazil: 2.400 kwh per capita 2.400 kwh per capitaPortugal: 4.800Portugal: 4.800China:China: 1.900 1.900
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Manaus
Brasília
São PauloItaipu
Porto Alegre
Fortaleza
Salvador
Rio de Janeiro
BeloHorizonte
Recife
Angra
4.000 4.000 kmkm4.000 4.000 kmkm
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HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITIONHYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION
• the expansion of a large interconnected power system, with significant predominance of hydro renewable primary source requires an increasing thermal contribution due to:
• gradual exhaustion of the economic and environmentally viable hydro potential
• loss of self-regulation capacity due to lower water storage capacity in the reservoirs related to the system load growth.
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• Canadian electric system over
the past 50 years holds many
similarities with the situation of
the Brazilian over last 15 years.
• From a contribution of over 90%
in 1960, hydroelectricity share
in Canada declined steadily until
1990, stabilizing around 60%.
HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITIONHYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITION
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Hydro-Thermal TransitionHydro-Thermal Transition
INSTALLED CAPACITY IN BRAZILINSTALLED CAPACITY IN BRAZIL
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MONTHLY MAX/MIN THERMAL MONTHLY MAX/MIN THERMAL GENERATION IN BRAZILGENERATION IN BRAZIL
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HYDRO-THERMAL HYDRO-THERMAL TRANSITIONTRANSITION
STORED ENERGY x HYDRO INSTALLED CAPACITYSTORED ENERGY x HYDRO INSTALLED CAPACITY
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Evolution of energy storageEvolution of energy storageEvolution of energy storageEvolution of energy storageDecennial Expansion Plan PDE-20210
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HYDRO POTENTIALHYDRO POTENTIALTECHNICAL, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE
150/180 GW from 260 GW(100 GW already used)
Hidro
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EXPANSION POST-2030EXPANSION POST-2030
• Mix: natural gas (depending on the amount and cost of pre-salt), coal (depending on the
viability of CCS and clean coal) and nuclear (public acceptance)
• Renewables (biomass, wind, solar) and expansion of energy efficiency programs
(increasing marginal expansion costs) will be an essential supplement
UNIQUE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES OF NEW RENEWABLES IN BRAZIL:
•Wind – Solar match
•Wind – Hydro match
• Energy storage in reservoirs
• Saving water and
• Enhancing hydroelectric load following and self-regulation (long term) capabilities
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NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS NUCLEAR POTENCIAL ATLAS
2) Southeast 2.000 MW
1) Northeast 2.000 MW
operation: 2025 - 2030operation: 2025 - 2030
EPRI SITTING CRITERIAEPRI SITTING CRITERIAGeographic Information SystemsGeographic Information Systems
National Energy Plan 2030
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National Energy Plan 2030
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• Plant Parameter Plant Parameter EnvelopeEnvelope– RFIs to suppliersRFIs to suppliers– Early Site Permit ReportEarly Site Permit Report
• Brazilian Utility Brazilian Utility RequirementsRequirements– URD/EUR ModelURD/EUR Model
• Business ModelBusiness Model– Public-Private PartnershipPublic-Private Partnership
• Economic and Economic and Financial FeasabilityFinancial Feasability
• Social and Ecomomic Social and Ecomomic ImpactsImpacts
National Energy Plan 2030
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REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
INSPIRED BYINSPIRED BYTVA (EUA)TVA (EUA)
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A NEW BUSINESS MODELA NEW BUSINESS MODELRisk sharingRisk sharing
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BUILDING NEW NUCLEARBUILDING NEW NUCLEARTHE CHALLENGES AHEADTHE CHALLENGES AHEAD
Public attitudes • Government leadership• Public opinion at the national level• Local level opinion• Fukushima• Building public support• Trust, understanding of risk, and
risk governance• Community benefit
Technology Selection• In operation x construction x design• FOAK x NOAK• Passive x Active Safety
Financing new nuclear • Where will the money come from?• Barriers to raising finance• Alternative approaches
Supply chain and skills • Potential for bottlenecks and delays• Opportunities for Brazilian businesses• Skills
Business Model• Market insertion (commercialization)• Ownership of nuclear power stations• State x Private• National x Foreigner
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Leonam GuimarãesLeonam Guimarães