Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for SMR Technology
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Transcript of Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for SMR Technology
1130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
5th International Forum ATOMEXPO, St. Petersburg, June 26, 2013
Nuclear Power – Global Growth and Opportunities for SMR Technology
2130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
Worldwide nuclear capacity is concentrated in 4 locations: US, France / Europe, Japan, and Russia
Nuclear Plants
> 384 operating reactors in 30 countries if excluding Japan (vs 444 reactors in 30 countries before the Fukushima disaster)
> 322 GWe net capacity if excluding Japan (vs 373 pre-Fukushima )
> 58% of reactors located in the USA and Western Europe
> Nuclear reactors in Japan still idled as of now (last operating one put in maintenance early May 2012)
KEY FIGURES
World mapping of nuclear installed base – May 2013
Nuclear Countries
Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis
3130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
10 (9,101)Ukraine 15 (13,168)United Kingdom 16 (10,058)Canada 18 (12,569)India 20 (4,281)China (incl.Taiwan) 21 (16,671)Korea RO (South) 23 (19,921)Russian Federation 33 (23,917)Japan 37 (32,970)France 58 (63,110)United States 104 (98,658)
Slovenia1 (452)Netherlands
Iran 1 (915)
1 (676)Armenia 1 (376)Argentina 2 (935)Bulgaria 2 (1,906)Brazil 2 (1,896)South Africa 2 (1,842)Romania 2 (1,305)Mexico 2 (1,600)Pakistan 3 (725)Hungary 4 (1,889)Finland 4 (2,676)Slovak Republic 4 (1,656)Switzerland 5 (3,220)Czech Republic 6 (3,707)Belgium 7 (5,755)Spain 8 (7,442)Germany 9 (12,008)Sweden
MAJORNUCLEAR COUNTRIES
SMALLNUCLEAR COUNTRIES
More than 80 per cent of installed nuclear capacity is concentrated in 10 countries
∑ = 384 reactors322 GWe
(if excl. Japan)
∑ = 421 reactors355 GWe
Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis
Country breakdown of installed base – May 2012 view [# units ; MWe net]
4130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
Since Fukushima, the operating nuclear base has decreased by 5% - restarts of idled reactors in Japan is on Abe´s political agenda
> Including Japanese reactors damaged by the tsunami or shutdown on a long term basis by government request, we observe a net substraction of 24 GW (29 reactors) to the operating base
> Shutdowns are concentrated in Japan (14.6 GW, 18 reactors), Germany (8.3 GW, 8 reactors) and the UK (0.9 GW, 3 reactors)
> Additions are in China (1.6 GW, 2 reactors), Iran (0.9 GW, 1 reactor), Russia (0.5 GW, 1 reactor) and South Korea (1.9 GW, 2 reactors)
421629444
Operating reactors in May 2012
CommissionningShutdowns / long term suspensions
Operating reactors pre Fukushima
Operating reactors in May 2012
355 GW
Commissionning
373 GW
Operating reactors pre Fukushima
5 GW24 GW
Shutdowns / long term suspensions
Number and capacity of nuclear reactors worldwide
Source: WNA, WNN, IAEA, Roland Berger analysis
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
# reactors GWe
5130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
Overall, the Fukushima impact will remain small on installed base, but more significant on new build– over 60% delays in "low" scenario
29
66
29
No impact
Life span extensionnot granted
Early shutdown
Low
444
349(79%)
High
444
414(93%)
1
[# reactors]
62Underconstruction
Announced or planned
2010projects
310
248
50
351
No impact
Delayed> 2 years
Delayed> 5 years
Frozenover 2030
Cancelled
Low
310
57(18%)
142
10
High
310
145(47%)
143
9 10
[# reactors]
Operating in 2010
444
Impact on NEW BUILD
Typical life span: 40 years. Typical extension: 20 additional years
Impact on INSTALLED BASE
Source: Roland Berger nuclear database
6130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
The Nuclear market is still expanding. 60 GW under construction worldwide, thereof 75% in BRIC countries
France
1 (1,245)
1 (1,650)
2 (630)
Iran
1 (1,600)
Brazil
1 (915)
Finland
Argentina 1 (692)
Pakistan
Slovak Republic 2 (840)
Ukraine 2 (1,900)
United States 3 (3,565)
Korea RO (South) 4 (5,050)
India 7 (5,074)
Russian Federation 10 (8,714)
China (incl. Taiwan) 28 (29,234)
∑ = 62 reactors60 GWe
Country breakdown of the NPP under construction – May 2012 [# units ; MWe net]
> Most of NPPs under construction are located in Asia and Eastern Europe – China (mainland and Taiwan) is the main
country for reactors under construction– Significant activity in Russia, South
Korea and India– Very few projects in developed countries
> All NPP under construction should be in operation by 2020
COMMENTS
Source: IAEA, WNA, Roland Berger analysis
7130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
China is expected to rely strongly on nuclear energy in the future – 40 reactors in construction at the end of 2012
Scenario considered for Greater China
100
0
60
20
80
40
93
27
93
26
93
25
93
24
93
23
93
22
94
21
94
20
95
19
95
18
96
17
97
16
97
15
96
2030
88
13
822)
2012 14
93
29
93
28
611)
OperatingUnder constructionLOW
HIGH
100
0
80
40
60
20
99
27
99
26
99
25
99
24
99
23
99
22
99
21
99
20
99
19
99
18
99
17
99
16
99
15
98
2030
90
13
84
2012 14
99
29
99
28
611)
Source: WNA, press releases, Roland Berger nuclear database
CHANGES IN GREATER CHINA INSTALLED CAPACITY [# reactors]
Recent development > Stress tests following Fukushima: small impact on
projects under construction, delay on planned reactors
> Taiwan announced a progressive phase out> 2 new reactors completed in mainland since
Fukushima, adding 1650 MWe to the total capacity
Roland Berger scenarios> Reactors under construction: delay assumed vs
WNA expected date of completion (2 years in low scenario, 1 year in high scenario)
> Reactors planned or announced: new estimated starting date for construction (based on WNA if available, RB estimates otherwise) + 6 years estimated to complete construction + delay due to potential post-Fukushima potential measures (2 years in low scenario, 1 year in high scenario)
OVERVIEW ON GREATER CHINA CURRENT STATUS
1) 28 reactors already in construction in May, 12 more started by the end of 2012. 21 reactors operating 2) 2 reactors under construction in Taiwan expected to be cancelled in RB low scenario
8130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
Russia is systematically pursuing its nuclear agenda with a dual focus on domestic and export markets
Scenario considered for the Russia
100
80
60
40
20
0
2030
85
29
85
28
85
27
83
26
74
25
65
24
63
23
61
22
60
21
59
20
59
19
51
18
51
17
51
16
50
15
50
14
46
13
45
2012
43
OperatingUnder construction
100
0
40
60
80
20
20
59
19
51
18
51
17
51
16
50
15
50
14
46
13
45
2012
43
8383
28
61 65
29 2030
83
22
6374
26 2725
83
60
21 24
59
23
1) Ukraine, Belarus, India, China, Turkey, VIetnam, Bangladesh
Source: WNA, press releases, Roland Berger nuclear database
LOW
HIGH
Recent development > Following Fukushima, authorities announced their
intention to improve security – back-up power and water supply as main concerns – and to extend the life of the existing reactors
> Kalinin 4 is operating since November 2011> Russia is strongly pushing exports in nuclear
energy, with plans in 7 countries at least1)
Roland Berger scenarios> No delays for reactors under construction> 2 years delays in low scenario for "planned" or
"announced" reactors
OVERVIEW ON RUSSIA CURRENT STATUS CHANGES IN RUSSIA INSTALLED CAPACITY [# reactors]
9130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
India sees strong nuclear development activity with installed capacity expected to double until 2030
Scenario considered for India
80
60
40
20
0
24
49
23
49
22
49
21
49
20
49
19
49
18
50
17
44
16
39
15
36
14
31
13
30
2012
27
49
26
49
25
49
2030
49
29
49
28
49
27
OperatingUnder construction
80
60
40
20
0
2030
62
29
62
28
62
27
62
26
62
25
62
24
62
23
62
22
62
21
62
20
62
19
49
18
50
17
44
16
39
15
36
14
31
13
30
2012
27
Source: WNA, press releases, Roland Berger nuclear database
LOW
HIGH
Recent development > India has affirmed plans to boost nuclear capacity to
63 GW by 2032, doubling current capacity in service by 2015
> 2 reactors entered recently into construction: Kakrapar 4 and Rajasthan 7 (630 MW each)
> Some delays are expected for reactors under construction due to public protests (Kudankalam 1&2). All reactors being built in India are potentially concerned by such delays as India is a democratic country with strong power given to local authorities
Roland Berger scenarios> High: considering delays, about a half of the
reactors under construction or planned enter service by 2030
> Low: all reactors are somehow delayed
OVERVIEW ON INDIA CURRENT STATUS CHANGES IN INDIA INSTALLED CAPACITY [# reactors]
10130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
BRICs are also at the forefront regarding SMRs; global market promises ~40 GW potential for SMRs in 2020-2030
14,0
8,4
5,5
2,9
41,1
0,9
0,8
0,7
1,6
14,7
9,2
1,5
2,52,3
Market potential1)2)3) – selected top markets [GW]
Desalination Electricity, heat
1) Market share in most countries – 10-15% (Russia & Kazakhstan – 50%)2) Based on opinions of 3 independent experts, IEA, specialized national institutions, UxC, WNA3) USA, Canada, Saudi Arabia – are also large markets, however were not studied in detail due to "Russian" focus
Source: Roland Berger
11130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
North, North-east and South are most likely areas for SMR in China
Geography of SMR – China
Source: Roland Berger
COMMENTS
> North, North-east and South of China have the largest potential for SMR
> These regions have– A number of large urban centers –
concentration of consumers– Lower density of infrastructure
(electric networks, gas pipelines, railroads, desalination facilities, cogeneration facilities) – demand for small / medium capacity units
– Locations with energy tariffs above average (71 USD / MWh – blue dots) – SMR can be competitive
– Acceptable seismic and other requirements
Harbin
Beijing
TianjinTaiyuan
Jiangsu
Shanghai
Changchun
Changsha
Chongqing
Dalian
Fuzhou
Guangzhou
Guiyang
Haikou
HangzhouHefei
Hohhot
Jinan
Kunming
Lanzhou
Nangchan
LinxiaNanjing
Nanning
Ningbo
Qingdao
Shenyang
Shijiazhuang
Shenzhen
Wuhan
Xi'an
Xining
Yinchuan
Xiamen
12130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
North-west, Urals, Siberia have the highest potential for SMR in Russia
Geography of SMR – Russia
Source: Roland Berger
COMMENTS
> Most likely areas in Russia– North-west– Urals– Siberia
> Prerequisites– Vast areas and distance
of industrial centers from main grid – conductive for SMR
– Locations with energy tariffs above average (58 USD / MWh – green areas) – SMR can be competitive
– Acceptable seismic and other requirements
Astrakhan' Oblast'
BelgorodOblast'
Murmansk Oblast'
Republic of Karelia
Dagestan Republic
North Ossetia
Orenburg Oblast'
Republic of Bashkortostan
YaNAO
KhMAO
Sverdlovsk Oblast'
Irkutsk Oblast'
Krasnoyarskiy Krai
Kemerovo Oblast'
Novosibirsk Oblast'Republic of Buryatia
Republic of Khakassia
MOSCOW
13130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
There is a number of major industrial projects which could be clear clients for SMR in Russia
PRO
JEC
TS
∼
2015
-203
0A
DD
ITIO
NA
L
Russia – Selected project as potential clients for SMR 2015-2030
Source: Roland Berger
> In Russia demand is expected from– New industrial clusters
– large power demand, often away from main grid, a number of projects already in the pipeline
– Large transport infrastructure projects – large power demand
– Deficit regions – such as Belgorod, Kaluga
COMMENTS
Example Industry
Diamond field (Yakutiya, Krasnoyarsky region Mining
Uranium mine, Elkonsky GMK (Yakutiya) Mining
Iron ore mining (Buryaniya) Mining
Gold mine "Peschanka" (Chukotsky region) Mining
Compensation for power deficit in Belgorod region Energy
Compensation for power deficit in Kaluga region Energy
14130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
There is a number players currently trying to develop an SMR technology
14
Various SMR technologies under development [for SMR <350 MW]
1) Light Water Reactors with Water Under Pressure 2) Heavy Water Reactors 3) High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors 4) Fast Neutron Reactor with lead-bismuth coolant 5) Fast Neutron Reactor with natrium coolant 6) At the exit of active zone 7) CG – cogeneration; DS - desalination; H – production of hydrogen
SMR
CNP-300
SMART
SMR 200
nuScale
mPower
HI-SMUR
AHWR
HTR-PM
GTHTR-300
EM2
SVBR-100
Hyperion
PRISM
4S
CAREM-25
Type
LWR WUP1)
LWR WUP
LWR WUP
LWR WUP
LWR WUP
LWR WUP
LWR WUP
HWR2)
HTGCR3)
HTGCR
HTGCR
FNR LB4)
FNR LB
FNR N5)
FNR N
Electric capacity
25 MW
325 MW
100 MW
225 MW
45 MW
125 MW
145 MW
300 MW
105 MW
285 MW
240 MW
100 MW
25 MW
310 MW
10 MW
Efficiency
23%
33%
30%
28%
28%
31%
31%
31%
42%
48%
48%
36%
36%
37%
33%
Coolant temperature6)
325 °C
315 °C
325 °C
n.a.
290 °C
320 °C
305 °C
285 °C
750 °C
850 °C
850 °C
480 °C
500 °C
500 °C
355 °C
Useful life
60 years
40 years
60 years
60 years
60 years
60 years
60 years
100 years
40 years
60 years
60 years
60 years
60 years
60 years
30 years
Fuel cycle
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open
Open / closed
Open
Open / closed
Open
Open / closed
Open
Closed
Open
Refuelling
11 months
14 months
36 months
24 months
24 months
60 months
36 months
n.a.
n.a.
24 months
360 months
84 months
120 months
24 months
360 months
Non-electric application7)
DS
-
DS
-
DS + CG
-
-
DS
-
DS + CG + H
CG
DS + CG + H
DS + CG + H
-
DS + CG + H
Construction time
60 months
72 months
36 months
36 months
36 months
36 months
36 months
72 months
48 months
48 months
60 months
36-48 mnths
48 months
48 months
36 months
$3500 / kW
Investments
$2800 / kW
$5500 / kW
n.a.
$4000 / kW
$5200 / kW
$4700 / kW
$3500 / kW
$2500 / kW
n.a.
n.a.
$4500 / kW
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
15
15130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
Russian SMR is likely to be among the first on the market – reference project scheduled for 2016-2018
SMR projects
PRISM (USA), 4S (Japan)FNR with N5)
Hyperion (USA)SVBR-100 (Russia)FNR with LB4)
GTHTR-300 (Japan), EM2 (USA)HTR-PM (China)HTGCR3)
GENERATION IVAHWR (India)HWR2)
HI-SMUR (USA)SMR 200, nuScale, mPower (USA)SMART (S. Korea)CAREM-25 (Argentina)CNP-300 (China)LWR with WUP1)
GENERATION III
SMR development plans [for SMR <350 MW]
Source: Roland Berger
1) Light Water Reactors with Water Under Pressure 2) Heavy Water Reactors 3) High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactors 4) Fast Neutron Reactor with lead-bismuth coolant 5) Fast Neutron Reactor with natrium coolant 6) Exceptions – CNP-300 (2 units in Pakistan) and HTR-PM (up to 18 units х 210 MW in China)
COMMENTS
> Advantages of Generation SMR IV– High passive safety– Advanced technical/economic
parameters (Gen III show only minor improvement against their "large brothers")
> Most Generation IV are not expected until 2020 – except Russian project
> Russian project could be interested to find a partner for joint promotion on the international markets
Project startConstruction of reference project
LicensingCommercial orders / projects
13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
16130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx
Financing risks and requirements are substantial; solutions need to include a wide spectre of instruments and contributions
Nuclear projects carry a unique financial risk profile – sheer project volume, long investment periods, widespread overruns of time and financial budgets, market uncertainty, political discontinuity, financial capacity and solidity of host countries
Financial risks are particularly severe for private sector nuclear players (financing capacity, credit rating), and for all investments "abroad"
Financing solutions 1 – project volume and long investment periods: building of consortia (one operator, 4-6 co-investors – strategic and financial), mergers & acquisitions, government incentives during construction phase or upon commissioning (example: US renewables): tax credits, free CO2 certificate allocation, capacity payments
Financing solutions 2 – market uncertainty and political discontinuity: capacity payments, fixed power tariffs, debt/mezzanine financing with success-based interest rates, substantial financial commitment of host countries (state, institutions, private investors)
Financial solutions 3 – financial capacity and solidity of host countries: nuclear portfolio diversification, guarantees by international institutions, limited liability constructs
Source: Roland Berger
17130626 Nuclear power market for Rosatom Conference_corrected.pptx