NRL and ICAP Multi-model Ensembles
Transcript of NRL and ICAP Multi-model Ensembles
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NRL and ICAP Multi-model Ensembles
Walter Sessions, CSC/NRL Jeff Reid, NRL Ed Hyer, NRL
Peng Xian, NRL
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Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System
NAAPS Ensembles Meteorology
o 20 Members o NOGAPS ensemble
based o Impacts on timing,
locations, sfc winds (sources)
Aerosol o 5 Members o Perturbed Sources
Random within 1 geom sigma o Deterministic Met o Amplitude (no feedback)
NAAPS (see Zhang et al, 2008) • Five Species (SO2, Sulfate,
Dust, Smoke, Seasalt) • 1 degree global
Not Official FNMOC NAAPS • Reanalysis Research Product • Tuned Wet/Dry Sinks • Ginoux Dust Source • Assimilating MODIS over land and ocean
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Ensemble Mean (red), Individual Ens Members (multiple,thin), Deterministic NAAPS (black)
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Meteorological • Treating disaster outflow
as passive tracer • Depicting level of
uncertainty
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CMYK Plots
• Filled Contours at Single Threshold Value • 7 colors, each a particular model or combination
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NRL Ensemble ICAP Ensemble
AERONET Sites
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What and Where
Current ICAP Models • MACC (ECMWF) • GEOS-5 (GSFC) • NAAPS (NRLMRY)
NRL Ensembles • Meteorological • Aerosol (soon)
Regions • Global Models • 9 Subregions
Webpage intended for ICAP use only
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http://www.NRLMRY.navy.mil/aerosol/icap.php
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Library Versions • NetCDF > V3.6 • NCDF4 / LFS • Estimated Daily Filesizes
Multimodel File Format
3 hrly 6 hrly 12 hrly
native 2G 1G 500M
0.5° 600M 310M 160M
1.0° 160M 79M 42M
Multi-Model Dimensions • Keep native • 0.5°x0.5° • 1°x1° • 120 hour forecasts • 3 / 6 / 12 hourly
Fields • Sulfate,Dust,’Smoke’,Seasalt, Total
• Surface Concentrations • Meteorological Fields
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Discussion Points
Data Retrieval "• Backfill missing data"• Timing of release"
Plot Methodology"• Stick with standard model fields"• Model output statistics"
• 1 sigma events"• MET"