NREL PV Jobs Labor Intensity Project

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

NREL PV Jobs/Labor Intensity Project

New Ideas in Educating a Workforce in Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

Albany, NY

Barry Friedman

November 19, 2009

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

Presentation Overview

  About the solar PV value chain

  Recent renewable energy jobs studies

  NREL’s JEDI Model

  Ongoing NREL study

  Key issues for U.S. job estimation

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Direct, Indirect, and Induced Economic Flow

Solar PV jobs Solar PV sales

Direct Economic Impacts

Consumer goods and services Sales and jobs from household spending on food, housing, clothing, health, education,

transportation, use of government services, etc.

Indirect Economic Impacts Induced Economic Impacts

Solar PV suppliers and services jobs

Solar PV suppliers and services sales

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Research and Development

Indirect Jobs Jobs created in the production of inputs into the PV industry on intermediate levels of production

Examples •  Commodity and materials suppliers •  Architects, planners, and builders •  Process manufacturers, e.g. lasers for wafer manufacture •  Financers and Investors •  Media and publishers

Direct Jobs Jobs created directly by production, installation, and maintenance of PV

Examples •  System developers and integrators • Installers •  Manufacturing (e.g. silicon and wafers, cells, modules, inverters) •  Research and development •  Trainers and educators

Examples of Direct, Indirect, and Induced Jobs Created by Solar

Induced Jobs Jobs associated with spending on food, housing, clothing, health, education,

transportation, use of government services, etc.

Examples: Retailers, restaurants, insurance companies

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  About the solar value chain

  Key renewable energy jobs studies




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New Energy Finance, for 2008 and 2025 Global

Sector 2008 Jobs per MW 2025 Jobs per MW

Opera&on 0.6 0.6

PV project construc&on 5.0 2.9

Roo8op installa&on 20.0 8.8

Silicon and wafers 3.5 1.3

Cell manufacture 5.0 1.9

Module manufacture 6.0 2.2

Inverters 1.3 0.8

Research 0.4 0.15

Development and services 0.2 0.4

TOTAL 42 19

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Source: New Energy Finance, 2009


FTE jobs in PV (2008 and 2025)

Global Job Estimates - New Energy Finance NEF estimates based on 14.7 GW in 2008 and 340 GW in 2025, across

solar technologies.

PEW estimates U.S. solar job growth at 19.1% from 1998-07.

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Research and Development

Navigant, for 2005 and 2010 U.S.

Source: Navigant Consulting, 2008 8





 NREL’s JEDI Model



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Jobs and Economic Development Impact Model (JEDI) Inputs   Analyzes project-level job and

economic impacts of constructing and operating power generation at the local and state level

  Inputs include -  Project location -  Year of construction or installation -  System type (residential new

construction, residential retrofit, small commercial, large commercial, utility)

-  Average system size, number of systems installed

-  Base installed system cost, annual direct O&M cost

  Option to use default project cost data

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Output of the JEDI Model

JEDI calculates jobs, earnings, and economic activity

Construction –  Project development and onsite

labor impacts –  Module and supply chain

impacts –  Induced impacts

Operation –  Onsite labor impacts (PV project

labor only) –  Local revenue and supply chain

impacts –  Induced impacts.

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Possible Next Steps For PV JEDI Development

Provide Scale-up Capability –  Improve usability for policy makers –  State and federal solar carve-out RPS scenarios -  Gross and net job analysis by state

Improve Cost Estimation -  Regular (or automatic) materials cost database updates, or allowance for

cost trending from base year data -  Addition of a database of manufacturing, land, and labor availabilities by

state -  Improved property & sales tax calculations -  Improvements to resource estimation and system design specifications

Other -  Allow for choice of thin-film, mono- or poly-crystalline technologies -  Add cost of land for centralized PV installations -  Add option for single or dual-axis tracking on large scale PV projects

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 Ongoing NREL study


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Goals of the Study

For the 2009-2030 timeframe:

  Identify and assess qualitative factors that contribute to the changing productivity (labor intensity) in U.S. solar PV

  E.g. new distributed models, economies of scale, industry consolidation

  Utilize historical intensity gains to assess future

  Provide up-to-date national estimates of U.S. job creation on a per-MW basis, across the PV value chain

  Compare findings to other studies, SEIA survey findings, and PV JEDI Model

  Follow-on analysis will replicate for CSP and SHC

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1.  Operation

2.  PV project construction

3.  Rooftop installation

4.  Silicon and wafers

5.  Cell manufacture

6.  Module manufacture

7.  Inverters

8.  Research

9.  Development and services

Value Chain Segments Covered by Study (NEF Model)

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Who We’re Interviewing for the Study

  Direct sectors of Solar PV Industry -  Installers -  Manufacturers -  Vertically integrated organizations

-  Distributors

  Large and small enterprises -  Broad range of industry participant size and scope of operations

  National coverage to capture localized economic and labor variations   Variations in state laws and regulations that influence labor productivity.

-  State specific incentive and certification laws impacting installers

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Key Job Estimation Issues   Gross vs. net employment: Displacement of

conventional energy source employment   Need for support infrastructure growth and employment

  SolarGrid model   CREZ model

  Scale-up Scenarios and assumptions   U.S. Strategic position vis-à-vis China on PV-related

manufacturing (more in a moment)   Difficult to capture domestic job creation from

multinational business operations.   Effects of mechanization, robotics, other process

improvements   How are ancillary services affected?

  Lawyers, financiers, project developers, etc.

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Scale-up Scenarios: Capacity Projections for PV Growth by 2030

Note: The Clean Edge projection is for 2025.

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2030 PV Projections

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U.S. Competitive Position   China and Europe each have 27% PV market share of 6.9 MW

global PV production.   China fastest growth rates.   U.S. ceded its position and is now at 6%. (.41 GW from .27 GW in 2007).

  1999 – 40% cell market share   2009 – 5% cell market share (SEIA)   Previous history of PV tech transfer to Japan   U.S. is an exporter and importer of both PV modules and thin film technologies

  Stabenow Senate bill – “Solar Manufacturing Jobs Creation Act”   Cost/benefit to U.S. economy/macroeconomic factors:

  Carbon price unclear, transportation costs, tariffs,   Weighed against expensive labor, capital, materials, and land/buildings   Installation job multipliers compared with manufacturing supply chain;   Scale-up scenarios could mean it’s not an either/or for U.S./China manufacturing   Uncertain effects of the “Buy American” provision of ARRA

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WD Needs Identified by IREC and DOE

–  Lack of trained installers, designers, sales people, inspectors, codes experts

–  Inconsistent/incomplete professional training/certification/licensing standards

•  Training does not differentiate among the types of jobs that are emerging

•  Lack of clearly targeted solar occupational areas, titles, tasks and skill sets

•  Lack of clearly defined career paths •  Lack of instructors with a combination of content expertise, practical

and teaching experience •  Lack of training programs that provide sufficient on-the-job

experience and hands-on laboratories •  Training does not sufficiently cross disciplines •  Lessons learned from other tech industries

–  Status quo educational system does not prioritize solar training

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Questions?

Barry Friedman Senior Energy Analyst National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Strategic Energy Analysis Center 1617 Cole Boulevard, MS 302 Golden, CO 80401 [email protected]

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NREL PV Jobs Labor Intensity Project

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