NPS Belene Assesment WTD
Transcript of NPS Belene Assesment WTD
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28 2011
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............................................................................................ 54 ( )................................................................ 56
.............................................................................................................................. 58 .......................................................................................................................................60
1: 2020 . .........................................................................62
2: 2025 . .........................................................................62
3:
2010 - 2020 .........................................................................................63
4: :
2025 . ..............................................................65
2025 ........................................................................... 651. ......................................................... 65
1.1. ....................................................................................................................................... 651.2. ( 3 4)................................................................................................................ 66
2. ......................................................................... 662.1. .............................................................................................................................. 66
3. ....................................................................................... 673.1. - S............................................................................................................. 673.2. - ENEL........................................................................................................... 673.3. - 2.................................................................................................................... 683.4. -3................................................................................................................................ 684. ................................................................................ 685. , . GT.................................................... 686. ........................................................................................... 69
7. ................................................................................................................................... 697.1. ............................................................................................................................... 69
8. , .................................................... 699. .............................................................................................................................. 6910. ............................................................................................................................... 7011. ............................................................................................................................. 70
5: .. 1000 2008 71
6: ........................................................................72
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, ,
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2003 - 2005 . , , .- , , .
2001 2010 . 56 %, .
1: (2001-2010)
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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(TWh) 36,83 36,37 37,07 35,72 36,59 37,94 38,6 39,54 37,37 36,53
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1:
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2: 2010 2015 2020 2025
, TWh 36,45 37,24 37,75 38,10
, TWh 35,50 37,00 39,30 42,15 , MAX, TWh 36,63 39,11 42,09
, MIN, TWh 36,25 37,60 36,62
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Mark Cooper, The economics of nuclear reactors: Renaissance or Relapse, June 2009.
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TheGlobalNuclear Fuel Market Supply and Demand 2009, September 2009.
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- - 361 (82 % ), 920 MW 332,2 GW. 47 (10,6 % ), 490 MW - 23 GW (6,6%). - 18 - 15. , .
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1990 . 2004 . 1900 TWh 2600 TWh. 36 % 7 % -
30IAEA http://www.iaea.or.at/programmes/a2/
31WNA http://www.world-nuclear.org/
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2009 . , 2030 . 509 GW.
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4: (2001-2010)43
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5: () , TWh ( )
/ TWh
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10,05 9,16 9,20 9,70 9,84 10,10 10,20 10,86 8,43 8,30 9,10 9,45 9,57 5,15 5,64 6,00 5,63 6,19 6,93 7,07 7,783 7,68 7,21 7,26 7,31 7,38 0,44 0,45 0,44 0,42 0,41 0,40 0,37 0,35 0,44 7,21 7,26 7,31 7,38
0,16 0,16 0,18 0,15 0,19 0,20 0,21 0,28 0,24 0,20 0,21 0,21 0,22
9,75 9,30 9,30 8,80 9,10 9,30 9,38 10,25 10,31 9,40 9,40 9,40 9,45
25,55 24,71 25,12 24,70 25,73 26,93 27,23 29,47 27,10 25,50 26,37 26,78 27,04
11,28 11,66 11,73 10,82 10,71 10,84 10,95 10,07 10,27 10,99 10,94 10,98 11,04
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6603.12.2008 . , 300 2009 .
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. .
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, .... 68
1995 .
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70 , 2005 ., . 40
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, 17.07.2009 ., http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=15454472Comparison of Different Decommissioning Fund Methodologies for Nuclear Installations, Country Report
Bulgaria, 2007,http://www.wupperinst.org/en/projects/proj/index.html?&projekt_id=167&bid=43&searchart=projekt_uebersicht
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44
360 . 2003 ., .
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WNA, Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage, November 2009http://www.world-nuclear.org74World Nuclear Association
75 Barry Buzan, Ole Wver, and Jaap de Wilde, Security: A New Framework for Analysis, Boulder
CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers 1998.)
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, , , . .
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2005 , . . - .
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. , 5%
76Barton, Barry, et al.Energy security: managing risk in adynamic and regulatory environment. Oxford: Oxford
University Press, 2004.
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8/6/2019 NPS Belene Assesment WTD
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, ( Centre for Strategicand International Studies 7%). , .
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Presidencies [online], Brussels, December 2004 [cit. 2007-04-29]. Accessible at WWW:http://www.fco.gov.uk/Files/kfile/UK-Lux%20prog.pdf.
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, ( ),
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48/75
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Westinghouse , . , .
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49/75
49
, , . , ( ) , 1 . 620 . , .
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50/75
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8/6/2019 NPS Belene Assesment WTD
51/75
51
0,75
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52/75
52
()
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8/6/2019 NPS Belene Assesment WTD
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53
, .
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54
. 4,2 .
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-
8/6/2019 NPS Belene Assesment WTD
55/75
55
8%.
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8/6/2019 NPS Belene Assesment WTD
56/75
56
( )
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-
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57/75
57
10: ( ) 1KWh ,
.
: .
1 KWh .
8% 9,54 1 KWh.
4% 1 KWh 6,27 , 1 KWh .
-
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58/75
58
11: ( ) 1KWh ,
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8% -8 044,6 -5 766,7 -3 488,7 -1 210,7 1 067,3 3 345,3 5 623,2
-
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59
9% -8 821,3 -6 824,9 -4 828,5 -2 832,0 -835,6 1 160,9 3 157,3
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10% -3 670,2 -3 328,3 -2 958,8 -2 556,4 -2 118,4 -1 671,3 -1 224,2
: .
-
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60
. 45, . 2 , .
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61
, ,
,
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,
?
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8/6/2019 NPS Belene Assesment WTD
62/75
-
8/6/2019 NPS Belene Assesment WTD
63/75
63
3:
2010 - 2020 .81
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. (MAX) (MIN). - 2020 . 42,09 TWh, 36,6 TWh. 2025 . .
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64
,
.
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. 4.3 (MAX2) , 2020 . , 4,74 TWh/2020 .
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-
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65
4: :
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66
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67
, , ( 50 100 % N n ), - , , ().
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-
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68
; .
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-
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-
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71
5: .. 1000
2008
-
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72/75
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. 1979 25 , ,
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- http://www.NEC.bg/cgi-bin/index.cgi?l=2&d=124192
- http://www.NEC.bg/tender/InfoRequest-ENG.doc93
23.10.2008 . http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=145007 94
24.09.2009, - 95
19.02.2009 . http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=149225 96
23.10.2009 . http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=157775 9728.10.2009 . http://www.mediapool.bg/show/?storyid=157966 98
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