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© 2016 Ipsos 1
NPR Study of Millennials
Cliff YoungPresident, Ipsos Public Affairs (US)
October 2016
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
Key Findings
© 2016 Ipsos 2
Key Findings (1)• Younger voters, or Millennials (ages 18-34), are distinct from their
older counterparts on a number of dimensions, but strikingly similar on others.
• In particular, when it comes to differences, younger voters are:• More progressive in their orientation• More likely to understand the American Dream in pluralistic terms
versus rugged individualism• Less white / more non-white• More likely to support an activist state• Less likely to identify with an existing party• More optimistic about the future• Historically less likely to vote and less enthusiastic this year• Much more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump• And, more likely to use technology – especially social media
© 2016 Ipsos 3
Key Findings (2)
• The key questions about these differences are:
• Are these differences permanent – something ingrained in the DNA of this new generation of voters? Social scientists call these “permanent” types of differences Generational or Cohort effects. These differences tend to be more long-lasting and “sticky”.
• Or, are these differences part of the life-cycle or a function of aging? Do voters without a job, or kids, or a mortgage – or who are simply younger – think and act differently than those that have these things? Social scientists call such differences age or life-cycle effects.
• The answer is a mixed bag. Some of the differences, we see, are a result of the life-cycle, but others are real generational differences.
© 2016 Ipsos 4
Key Findings (3)
• Generational Change• Younger generations entering the population are more
progressive, more nonwhite, and less aligned politically than older generations. The empirical data is clear here. These differences portend longer-
term social change.
• Life Cycle Differences• In contrast, greater optimism, lower voter turnout, lower
voter enthusiasm, and stronger belief in an activist government all appear to be a function of the life-cycle. Put differently, as voters age, they become more pessimistic, more
likely to vote, and more likely to believe in a smaller government. But such differences are not necessarily the harbingers of longer-term societal change.
© 2016 Ipsos 5
Key Findings (4)
• Finally, on several key issues of this election, younger voters are similar to their older counterparts:
• Specifically, on the question of the main problems facing the nation, young and old alike believe that “economy & jobs” and “terrorism” are the most important priorities.
• There is also little difference by age on two of the most important themes of this election year, with a strong majority of younger and older voters believing that “the system is broken” and that “there should be restrictions on immigration”. Could these drivers be leading indicators of politics to come?
© 2016 Ipsos 6
Legend
Generation Years Born Age
Generation ZZ 2011-2016 0-5
Generation Z 2000-2010 6-17
Millennials 1982-1999 18-34
Generation X 1962-1981 35-54
Baby Boomers 1946-1961 55+
© 2016 Ipsos 7
Sizing the Generations
© 2016 Ipsos 8
Millennials and Boomers of Equal Size: 75 millionProjected Population by Generation
© 2016 Ipsos 9
Long-Term Trends: Generational Changes
© 2016 Ipsos 10
Younger Generations are more progressive
49
87
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Generations (Year Born) 1974 1984 1994 2004 2008 2014
Pre WWI (Before 1914) 26% 30% 47% *** *** ***
Greatest Generation (1915-27) 47% 48% 54% 60% 50% 50%
Depression and War Babies (1928-45) 58% 59% 68% 77% 62% 75%
Baby Boomers (1946-64) 77% 74% 80% 79% 80% 70%
Gen X (1965-81) *** *** 79% 84% 70% 90%
Millennials (1982-2000) *** *** *** 87% 83% 91%
Support Allowing Homosexual To Teach Higher Ed
Source: GSS (n=34,696)
© 2016 Ipsos 11
Generational Shift: Increasingly Nonwhite America
Source: US Census
50%53%
56%
63%
76%
50%47%
44%
37%
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Generation ZZ (0-5) Generation Z (6-17) Millennials (18-34) Gen X (35-54) Baby Boomers (55+)
Generations by Race 2014
White Nonwhite
© 2016 Ipsos 12
Declining Party Fealty and Millennials more likely to identify as Independent or Democrat
Source: Pew Trend Data from Gallup
Source: Reuters/Ipsos Poll, Sept 2016
41
40
19
Millennials
34
38
28
Xers
32
34
34
Boomers
2016
© 2016 Ipsos 13
Changing “Meaning of America”: Younger voters see America in more pluralistic terms
57%43%
In the U.S. it does not matter where you come from, if you work hard you can get ahead.finitely will vote for candidate
The U.S. is a place where no matter your religion or
ethnicity, you will be treated with respect and dignity.
55%45%
60%
41%
All Millennials Millennials Ages 18-26
Millennials Ages 27-34
Which of the following is closer to your view of what the “American Dream” means…
67%
33%
All Americans
“All Americans” data taken from a Ipsos poll with data collected April 1-4, 2016 with 1,005 respondents.
© 2016 Ipsos 14
Generational Differences in Social Media Usage
Source: Internet Live Stats, elaboration of data by International Telecommunication Union (ITU), World Bank, and United Nations Population Division
90%Millennials
77%Gen X
43%Baby Boomers
© 2016 Ipsos 15
Big versus Small Government
Life Cycle Effect
© 2016 Ipsos 16
Older voters more supportive of smaller government
70%
65%
57%
19
75
19
83
19
84
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
93
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Believe that the Government Should do Moreby age
18-34
35-54
Source: General Social Survey 1975-2014
55+
© 2016 Ipsos 17
Voter Optimism
Younger voters more optimistic than older ones
© 2016 Ipsos 18
Millennials Concerned about the Future
Thinking about the future of the United States, do you think the country's best years are ahead of us or behind us?
32%
47%
39%
24%
21%
23%
44%
32%
38%
Millennials Ages 18-26
Millennials Ages 27-34
All Millennials
Ahead of us Don't know Behind us
“All Americans” data taken from a Reuters/Ipsos poll with data collected September 15-September 19,2016 with 1,749 respondents.
© 2016 Ipsos 19
But consistently more optimistic than older cohortsDo you agree or disagree: Your standard of living will improve.
67%
61%
49%
19
87
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
Source: General Social Survey 1987-2014
18-34
35-54
55+
© 2016 Ipsos 20
Voter Enthusiasm and Turnout
© 2016 Ipsos 21
Voter Turnout: Older voters turn out more than the younger voters
Turnout of %
of Voting-Age
Population
18-24 year
olds
25-44 year
olds
45-64 year
olds65+ year olds
1980 59.2 39.9 58.7 69.3 65.1
1984 59.9 40.8 58.4 69.8 67.7
1988 57.4 36.2 54.0 67.9 68.8
1992 61.3 42.8 58.3 70.0 70.1
1996 58.4 32.4 49.2 64.4 67.0
2000 59.5 32.3 49.8 64.1 67.6
2004 63.8 41.9 52.2 66.6 68.9
2008 63.6 44.3 51.9 65.0 68.1
2012 61.8 38.0 49.5 63.4 69.7
Average
Turnout60.5 38.7 52.6 66.7 68.1
Turnout of Total Population
Source: US Census
© 2016 Ipsos 22
Lower voter enthusiasm among younger voters in 2016 than older votersProjected voter turnout
By Age Cohort
Source: Reuters/Ipsos Poll, Jan-Sept 2016
45 4543
45 46
4244
39
46
42 41
3638 37
39
34
3739
5255
52 5150
51
44 45
5655
49
44
54
46
5250
5250
6668
63 6365
62 6264
6263
62
65
6164
59
6362 63
Earl
y Ja
n
Late
Jan
Earl
y Fe
b
Late
Feb
Earl
y M
ar
Late
Mar
Earl
y A
pr
Late
Ap
r
Earl
y M
ay
Late
May
Earl
y Ju
n
Late
Ju
n
Earl
y Ju
l
Late
Ju
l
Earl
y A
ug
Late
Au
g
Earl
y Se
pt
Late
Sep
t
Millennials
X-ers
Boomers (+)
© 2016 Ipsos 23
Reasons Not to Vote: Younger Voters don’t like their options and don’t feel their vote counts
When thinking about the upcoming 2016 Presidential election in November, which of these reasons, if any, would potentially cause you not to vote?
7%
7%
9%
9%
12%
12%
15%
16%
23%
28%
4%
10%
6%
10%
6%
3%
15%
19%
17%
21%
I don’t know where to vote
Other
Politics and elections don’t really effect my life
I hope to move out of the country before November 2016
I am not interested in politics
Not registered
Too busy
Bad weather conditions
I don’t think my vote will make a difference
I don’t like any of the presidential candidates enough to vote
Millennial LVs
All Millennials
“All Americans” data taken from a Reuters/Ipsos poll with data collected September 15-September 19,2016 with 1,749 respondents.
© 2016 Ipsos 24
Key Issues of this Electoral Cycle
System is Broken & America First
© 2016 Ipsos 25
Millennials, like all Americans, believe the Economy is Broken
The American economy is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful Percent Agree
“All Americans” data taken from a Ipsos poll with data collected April 15- April 16, 2016 with 1,006 respondents.
71%
69%
70%
68%
83%
78%
70%
59%
55%
58%
All Americans
All Millennials
Millennials Ages 18-26
Millennials Ages 27-34
All Democrats
Millennial Democrats
All Independents
Millennial Independent
All Republicans
Millennial Republicans
© 2016 Ipsos 26
Traditional parties and politicians don't care about people like me
“All Americans” data taken from a Ipsos poll with data collected April 15- April 16, 2016 with 1,006 respondents.
Millennials, like all Americans, believe Politics is Broken
Percent Agree
67%
63%
65%
63%
67%
68%
74%
68%
68%
54%
All Americans
All Millennials
Millennials Ages 18-26
Millennials Ages 27-34
All Democrats
Millennial Democrats
All Independents
Millennial Independent
All Republicans
Millennial Republicans
© 2016 Ipsos 27
Younger and older voters believe in restrictions on Immigration, but younger voters less so
When jobs are scarce, employers should prioritize hiring people of this country over immigrants
“All Americans” data taken from a Ipsos poll with data collected April 15- April 16, 2016 with 1,006 respondents.
Percent Agree
64%
54%
59%
48%
65%
67%
77%
66%
All Americans
All Millennials
All Democrats
Millennial Democrats
All Independents
Millennial Independent
All Republicans
Millennial Republicans
© 2016 Ipsos 28
Younger Voters prioritize same problems as older voters
All Americans All MillennialsMillennialsAges 18-26
MillennialsAges 27-34
Economy generally 19% 16% 16% 16%
Unemployment / lack of jobs 10% 6% 7% 5%
War / foreign conflicts 3% 5% 6% 5%
Immigration 6% 6% 4% 7%
Terrorism / terrorist attacks 14% 16% 12% 19%
Healthcare 8% 6% 6% 6%
Energy issues 1% 2% 1% 2%
Morality 7% 7% 7% 8%
Education 6% 10% 12% 9%
Crime 8% 7% 7% 7%
Environment 2% 7% 8% 5%
Don’t know 7% 6% 7% 6%
Other 9% 6% 7% 6%
In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today?
“All Americans” data taken from a Reuters/Ipsos poll with data collected September 15-September 19,2016 with 1,749 respondents.
© 2016 Ipsos 29
Vote Breakdown
Clinton versus Trump
© 2016 Ipsos 30
Millennials More Likely to Support Clinton
If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote?
All Americans All MillennialsMillennialsAges 18-26
MillennialsAges 27-34
Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 36% 45% 42% 49%
Donald Trump (Republican) 32% 21% 21% 22%
Gary Johnson (Libertarian) 9% 9% 10% 9%
Jill Stein (Green) 4% 4% 3% 4%
Other 3% 4% 5% 2%
Wouldn’t Vote 9% 10% 13% 7%
Don’t know / Refused 9% 7% 6% 8%
“All Americans” data taken from a Reuters/Ipsos poll with data collected September 15-September 19,2016 with 1,749 respondents.