November December 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Crude...

November-December 2015

CERI Commodity Report — Crude Oil

Relevant • Independent • Objective

CERI Commodity Report – Crude Oil Editorial Committee: Paul Kralovic, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Jon Rozhon, Allan Fogwill About CERI The Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, not-for-profit research establishment created through a partnership of industry, academia, and government in 1975. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, objective economic research in energy and related environmental issues. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at [email protected].

Figure 1: Saudi Arabia Relinquishes Role as Swing Producer

Source: EIA, Oak Leaf Energy Training

WTI has been sub-$50 since mid-summer 2015, and the world’s other main marker crude, Brent Blend, has been trading at comparable levels. There are no manifest signs of an upward swing anytime soon. Cheap crude oil is now plentiful and available to all. Forty years ago, the story was much different. The 1973 Oil Crisis marked the beginning of a keen national awareness of oil’s importance in the daily lives of Americans. Arab nations, displeased with US and other nations’ support of Israel in the Yom Kippur War, announced an oil embargo on those countries. This energy restriction resulted in immediate, massive increases in oil prices, which in turn had resounding effects throughout the US economy. The US had reached a peak in oil production three years earlier, and could not unilaterally make up for this sharp reduction in supply. Various domestic policy and diplomatic efforts eventually eased the supply crisis, but the 1970s were a time of long line-ups at gasoline stations and persistent economic “stagflation”.3 In 1975, President Gerald Ford signed new legislation to deal with the crisis, The Energy Policy and Conservation Act. The Act established the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, both of which are still in place today. It also provided the President with power to control domestic

Assessing the US Ban on Crude Oil Exports Jon Rozhon In his 2006 State of the Union address, US President George Bush dramatically announced, “America is addicted to oil”. Those remain perhaps the most memorable words of the entire speech. The next sentence, though, has turned out to be even more telling: “The best way to break this addiction is through technology”.1 President Bush was certainly correct in stating technology had a role to play, but in the oil and gas industry, a decade of remarkable technological innovation has so far not cured America of its oil dependency. It may well be argued that technology has only fed the addiction. Two rapidly developing technologies in particular – horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing – have pried open previously uneconomic shale oil and gas plays throughout North America, flooding markets with domestically-produced hydrocarbons in volumes that would have been unthinkable during the Bush era. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil stood at $67.86 on the day of the President’s speech, and there were some fluctuations over the next few years. Since 2010 however, the oil price stayed uncharacteristically stable, trading mostly within the $70-$100 range. Finally, in the summer of 2014, the crude oversupply caused global crude oil prices to collapse by more than 50 percent. The situation was further exacerbated when Saudi Arabia made the decision not to adjust production to support higher oil prices, thereby abandoning its traditional role as “Swing Producer,”2 and the world witnessed the unfettered laws of supply and demand taking the price of oil straight down (see Figure 1).

CERI Commodity Report - Crude Oil

oil and gas production, to regulate energy prices, and to enforce energy rationing in case of another shortage.4 One important provision of the Act authorized the President to restrict exports of coal, crude, natural gas, and petrochemical feedstock, with the exception of exports to important trading partners Mexico and Canada. Much has changed over the years – there are no longer any price controls, for example – but one thing has remained constant, the ban on crude oil exports. Presidents and Congresses since the 1970s have accepted that control of domestic oil is fundamental to the nation’s security. Oil production was on a seemingly inexorable decline; within a generation, production had fallen by more than half (see Figure 2). However, the technological advances mentioned earlier have brought domestic crude production roaring back to the point where 2015 volumes are comparable to those produced before the long decline began 45 years ago. Now oil producers, politicians, and the general public are asking whether or not it is finally time to stop restricting crude exports. Figure 2: US Field Production of Crude Oil, 1970-2015

Sources: EIA, CERI

The resurgence in domestic oil production should not be mistaken for oil self-sufficiency. The US is a net importer, and that is unlikely to end soon. Consuming oil at a rate of 19 million barrels per day (MMBPD), the US requires more of the commodity than does any other country

(China is the second largest consumer at 11 MMBPD); domestic production still falls well short of what America needs.5 The problem, however, is not a matter of oil quantity but quality. Many US crude refineries are presently equipped to handle the sour, heavy crudes imported from Canada (by far the US’ largest crude import source), Mexico and Venezuela. Capacity to refine the increased volumes of domestic crude, which is light and sweet, is therefore at a premium. US production has pushed out much imported light, sweet crude, but even so, the industry appears to be nearing a threshold where no further light oil can be absorbed by the nation’s refineries without yield declines or capacity additions. The number is by-and-large agreed by analysts to be between 10 and 11 MMBPD.6 The most recent data from the EIA (Figure 2) indicates domestic production is now close to those levels – in excess of 9.5 MMBPD. Building new refineries or retooling existing refineries are two expensive and potentially unpopular options: many refiners, especially along the Gulf Coast, have already incurred significant expense configuring their facilities to take heavy oil. In addition, the general public is not usually receptive to new-build refineries – “not in my backyard” being a commonly-held view. Exporting domestic oil, on the other hand, would be a simpler, less costly option. What would be the economic ramifications of opening up crude exports? In recent years, at least partly because domestic crude could not reach alternative destinations, prices have been lower in the US than on global markets. Releasing US oil to the world would have the general effect of putting downward pressure on global oil prices. Any existing gap between WTI and Brent would narrow. Figure 3 shows the historic difference between WTI and Brent prices. Lately the persistent spread between the two crudes has closed. Over the long haul, WTI – a slightly better quality crude than Brent – could be expected to fetch the same price as or a marginally higher price than Brent.


Figure 3: Historic WTI and Brent Crude Oil Prices

Source: EIA

US producers would welcome the increase in domestic crude value, but refiners would likely not see similar benefits. For years, refiners have profited by using cheaper domestic crude and blending it with cheap heavy imported crude and then selling the higher-value refined petroleum products (RPPs) – which are under no export restrictions – at global prices. However, with open crude oil markets and lower prices for Brent, global RPP prices would fall, too. In sum, producers would benefit to a degree, the end-users of RPPs would benefit to a degree, but refiners would probably lose out. It should come as no surprise, then, that refiners are leading the way in opposing lifting of the crude ban and producers are in general agreement that the oil should be on offer to foreign buyers. The House voted in favour of lifting the ban in October of 2015, with 26 Democrats joining 235 Republicans.7 But Obama’s Administration feels that "Legislation to remove crude export restrictions is not needed at this time," "Congress should be focusing its efforts on supporting our transition to a low-carbon economy.”8

The President may be right. Worldwide oil and gas prices are low and it will take a great deal more than lifting the export ban to breathe new life into the US industry; perhaps the legislative focus is required elsewhere. US producers and consumers could have benefitted if the ban had been lifted several years ago when the WTI-Brent spread was at its widest. Since then, however, Saudi Arabia’s choice to abdicate its swing producer status has proven to be momentous, shaking the oil industry to its core. Right now, lifting or not lifting the export ban would make little difference in this global landscape of cheap, plentiful oil. If the world returns to a situation where oil is a scarce commodity, releasing US crude could bring some relief to domestic producers and consumers. It remains to be seen if security of supply will continue to trump economic efficiency. Endnotes http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/31/AR2006013101468.html A swing producer, simply put, is capable of manipulating the global price of a commodity by adjusting its own production. Simultaneously increasing employment and inflation with slow, even stagnant, economic growth. https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/94/s622/summary BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2015 edition. Bordoff, J. and Trevor Houser. “Navigating the US Oil Export Debate”. Columbia | SIPA. January 2015. http://www.wsj.com/articles/house-votes-to-lift-oil-export-ban-1444411778 http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/10/07/white-house-threatens-veto-of-bill-lifting-oil-export-ban

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/31/AR2006013101468.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/31/AR2006013101468.html

https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/94/s622/summary

http://www.wsj.com/articles/house-votes-to-lift-oil-export-ban-1444411778

http://www.wsj.com/articles/house-votes-to-lift-oil-export-ban-1444411778

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/10/07/white-house-threatens-veto-of-bill-lifting-oil-export-ban

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/10/07/white-house-threatens-veto-of-bill-lifting-oil-export-ban


SOU

RC

E: E

IA.

SOU

RC

E: E

IA.

SOU

RC

E: N

RC

an, E

IA.

SOU

RC

E: E

IA, C

ERI.

-4-20246810

12

14

16

0

20

40

60

80

10

0

12

0

14

0

16

0 No

v-1

4D

ec-

14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Ma

r-1

5A

pr-

15

Ma

y-1

5Ju

n-1

5Ju

l-1

5A

ug-

15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5D

ec-

15

Jan

-16

US$

/bb

l

Dif

fere

nti

al

WT

IB

ren

t

Sp

ot

Cru

de

Pri

ces

Sp

ot

Cru

de

Pri

ces

Sp

ot

Cru

de

Pri

ces

Sp

ot

Cru

de

Pri

ces

US

$/b

bl

WT

I -

Ed

mo

nto

n L

igh

tP

rice

Dif

fere

nti

als

WT

I -

Ed

mo

nto

n L

igh

tP

rice

Dif

fere

nti

als

WT

I -

Bre

nt

Pri

ce D

iffe

ren

tia

ls (U

S$

/bb

l)

Spot Price

sW

TI

Bre

nt

Cdn.L

ight*

H.H

ard

isty

Year-

to-D

ate

48.6

952.3

444.8

336.8

1

Quart

er-

to-D

ate

41.9

543.5

439.0

327.8

1

January

12, 2016

31.4

230.1

444.40

31.39

-200

20

40

60

80

10

0

12

0

14

0 De

c-0

9D

ec-

10

De

c-1

1D

ec-

12

De

c-1

3D

ec-

14

De

c-1

5

US

$/b

bl

Dif

fere

nti

al

WT

IE

dm

on

ton

Lig

ht

WT

I -

Ed

mo

nto

n L

igh

tP

rice

Dif

fere

nti

als

(US

$/b

bl)

0

20

40

60

80

10

0

12

0 De

c-0

9D

ec-

10

De

c-1

1D

ec-

12

De

c-1

3D

ec-

14

De

c-1

5

US

$/b

bl

Dif

fere

nti

al

WT

IH

ard

isty

He

av

y

WW

TI

-H

ard

isty

He

av

yP

rice

Dif

fere

nti

als

WT

I -

Ha

rdis

ty H

ea

vy

Pri

ce D

iffe

ren

tia

ls (U

S$

/bb

l)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

12

34

US

$/b

bl

11

-No

v-1

51

1-D

ec-

15

11

-Ja

n-1

6

NN

YM

EX

WT

I C

rud

e F

orw

ard

Cu

rve

4

co

ntr

act

mo

nth

s


SOU

RC

E: E

IA, C

ERI.

SO

UR

CE:

NR

Can

.

SOU

RC

E: I

EA O

il M

arke

t R

epo

rt.

SOU

RC

E: E

IA W

eekl

y P

etro

leu

m S

tatu

s R

epo

rt.

0.5

0

0.7

5

1.0

0

1.2

5

1.5

0

1.7

5

2.0

0

2.2

5

2.5

0 De

c-1

4Ja

n-1

5Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-1

5M

ay

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5Se

p-1

5O

ct-1

5N

ov-

15

De

c-1

5Ja

n-1

6

US

$/g

al

RB

OB

Ga

soli

ne

He

ati

ng

Oil

NY

ME

X P

etr

ole

um

Pro

du

cts

NYM

EX P

rice

sUnle

aded G

aso

line

Heating O

il

Year-

to-D

ate

1.6

339

1.6

615

Quart

er-

to-D

ate

1.3

106

1.3

637

January

12, 2016

1.1

130

1.0

150

0.6

0

0.7

0

0.8

0

0.9

0

1.0

0

1.1

0

1.2

0

1.3

0

1.4

0

1.5

0 De

c-0

9D

ec-

10

De

c-1

1D

ec-

12

De

c-1

3D

ec-

14

De

c-1

5

CD

N/U

S$

CD

N/U

S$

Exc

ha

ng

e R

ate

49

.0%

49

.5%

50

.0%

50

.5%

51

.0%

51

.5%

52

.0%

52

.5%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10

0

11

0

2Q

14

3Q

14

4Q

14

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

15

1Q

16

2Q

16

MM

bp

d

To

tal

OE

CD

To

tal

No

n-O

EC

Dn

on

-OE

CD

De

ma

nd

sh

are

Oil

Dem

an

d in

Se

lec

ted

Co

un

trie

sG

lob

al

Oil

De

ma

nd

-10

%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

To

tal

Ga

soli

ne

Jet

Fu

el

Dis

till

ate

Re

sid

ua

lP

rop

an

eO

the

r

%

UU

S P

rod

uct

s D

em

an

dD

ece

mb

er

20

14

-D

ece

mb

er

20

15

Y-o

n-Y

ch

an

ge


SOU

RC

E: I

EA O

il M

arke

t R

epo

rt, C

ERI.

SO

UR

CE:

IEA

Oil

Mar

ket

Rep

ort

.

SOU

RC

E: I

EA O

il M

arke

t R

epo

rt.

SOU

RC

E: I

EA O

il M

arke

t R

epo

rt.

57

.0%

57

.5%

58

.0%

58

.5%

59

.0%

59

.5%

60

.0%

60

.5%

61

.0%

61

.5%

0

20

40

60

80

10

0

12

0

2Q

14

3Q

14

4Q

14

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

15

1Q

16

2Q

16

MM

bp

d

no

n-O

PE

C S

up

ply

OP

EC

Su

pp

lyn

on

-OP

EC

Sh

are

of

Glo

ba

l S

up

ply

SG

lob

al

Oil

Su

pp

ly

0

2,0

00

4,0

00

6,0

00

8,0

00

10

,00

0

12

,00

0

14

,00

0

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

15

1Q

16

2Q

16

Mb

pd

Ala

ska

Ca

lifo

rnia

Te

xa

sF

ed

era

l G

OM

Oth

er

Low

er

48

NG

LsO

the

r

US

Oil

Pro

du

ctio

nb

y r

eg

ion

0

50

0

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

4,0

00

4,5

00

5,0

00

2Q

15

3Q

15

4Q

15

1Q

16

2Q

16

Mb

pd

AB

L/M

/HA

B B

itu

me

nS

KO

the

rN

GLs

Sy

nth

eti

c

Ca

na

dia

n O

il P

rod

uct

ion

by

pro

du

ct

0

50

0

1,0

00

1,5

00

2,0

00

2,5

00

3,0

00

3,5

00

No

v-1

2N

ov

-13

No

v-1

4N

ov

-15

Mb

pd

OE

CD

No

rth

Am

eri

caO

EC

D E

uro

pe

OE

CD

Pa

cifi

c

OE

CD

Co

mm

erc

ial

Sto

cks

by

re

gio

n


SOU

RC

E: E

IA W

eekl

y P

etro

leu

m S

tatu

s R

epo

rt.

SOU

RC

E: I

EA O

il M

arke

t R

epo

rt.

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10

.0

Cru

de

Ga

soli

ne

Dis

till

ate

Pro

du

cts

To

tal

MM

b

US

Co

mm

erc

ial

Sto

cks

No

ve

mb

er

27

-D

ece

mb

er

25

, 20

15

M-o

n-M

Ch

an

ge

16

5

16

7.5

17

0

17

2.5

17

5

17

7.5

18

0

18

2.5

18

5

18

7.5

19

0

19

2.5

19

5

3Q

14

4Q

14

1Q

15

2Q

15

3Q

15

MM

b

Ca

na

dia

n S

tock

s o

n L

an

d


World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd)

OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd)

WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel)

2013 2014 2015 2016 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

World Demand 91.9 92.8 94.5 95.7 91.9 92.0 93.2 94.0 93.5 93.9 95.4 95.1 94.7 95.1 96.4 96.5

OECD 46.0 45.7 46.2 46.2 45.8 44.8 45.9 46.4 46.4 45.3 46.7 46.3 46.4 45.4 46.4 46.5

non-OECD 45.9 47.1 48.3 49.5 46.1 47.2 47.3 47.7 47.1 48.6 48.7 48.8 48.3 49.6 50.1 50.0

World Supply 91.4 93.8 96.3 0.0 92.2 93.1 94.3 95.4 95.2 96.3 97.0 96.8 95.3 95.8 96.6 96.6

Non-OPEC 53.8 56.3 57.6 57.0 55.1 55.9 56.5 57.6 57.4 57.5 57.9 57.8 56.9 56.9 57.1 57.2

OPEC NGLs 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 6.4 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0

OPEC Crude 27.4 27.7 28.0 27.9 30.7 30.8 31.2 31.2 31.2 32.2 32.4 32.3 31.6 32.0 32.6 32.4

Supply - Demand1 -0.6 1.0 1.8 -95.7 0.3 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.4 1.6 1.8 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.1

OECD

Stocks (MMbbls) 2566 2582 2652 2720 2712 2815 2905 2981 3061 3088 3117 3127

Days Cover 56 58 58 59 58 62 62 64 66 68 67 67

Sustainable

Capacity Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15

Saudi Arabia 10.85 10.21 10.19 10.14 2.16 2.14 2.09

Iran 4.00 2.88 2.87 2.91 -0.46 -0.47 -0.43

UAE 2.85 2.89 2.89 2.89 0.67 0.67 0.67

Kuwait 2.65 2.73 2.80 2.81 0.51 0.58 0.59

Qatar 0.90 0.67 0.68 0.68 -0.06 -0.05 -0.05

Nigeria 2.60 1.90 1.80 1.76 0.23 0.13 0.09

Libya 1.75 0.43 0.39 0.38 -1.04 -1.08 -1.09

Algeria 1.43 1.11 1.11 1.11 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09

Ecuador 0.49 0.53 0.54 0.54 0.10 0.11 0.11

OPEC-11 32.12 28.18 28.08 28.02 -1.82 -1.92 -1.98

Iraq1 2.50 4.17 4.29 4.26

Total OPEC 34.62 32.35 32.37 32.28

Production Over (+)/Under (-) Target

2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17

High Price Case 37.95 42.90 35.20 37.40 38.50 40.70 42.90

Reference Case 93.28 48.71 34.50 39.00 48.49 57.85 46.47 42.03 32.00 34.00 35.00 37.00 39.00

Low Price Case 29.33 33.15 27.20 28.90 29.75 31.45 33.15


Data Appendix


A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel)

A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices (¢US per gallon)

Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average con-

tract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip

Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward

prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

NYMEX Light Sweet Crude

Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)

2013 96.82 97.37 97.01 97.45 -0.12

2014 96.53 96.37 96.73 87.56 0.54

2015 49.68 49.80 51.41 53.58 -0.77

4Q 2014 83.30 83.34 86.59 86.30 0.56

1Q 2015 51.08 51.34 54.75 56.95 -0.47

2Q 2015 53.32 53.04 52.84 56.55 -1.51

3Q 2015 50.39 50.63 53.14 54.10 -0.42

4Q 2015 43.92 44.17 44.89 46.71 -0.69

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -47.3% -47.0% -48.2% -45.9%

Jan-15 56.52 55.70 64.33 65.55 -0.19

Feb-15 46.39 47.11 50.64 52.78 -0.45

Mar-15 50.34 51.21 49.29 52.53 -0.78

Apr-15 45.72 44.78 47.98 52.78 -1.84

May-15 55.26 55.79 51.65 55.42 -1.57

Jun-15 58.98 58.56 58.89 61.46 -1.12

Jul-15 59.68 59.91 59.63 61.11 -0.41

Aug-15 50.36 50.47 54.66 53.70 -0.36

Sep-15 41.14 41.52 45.12 47.50 -0.49

Oct-15 45.83 45.73 44.47 46.73 -0.57

Nov-15 45.55 46.23 46.32 48.55 -0.51

Dec-15 40.39 40.56 43.88 44.87 -0.99

Jan-16 34.74 34.81 38.61 41.66 -1.39

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -38.5% -37.5% -40.0% -36.4%

NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil

Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread

Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.)

2013 284.3 285.6 284.5 274.2 0.5 298.2 299.0 298.9 304.9 -0.5

2014 270.6 272.8 271.8 260.8 1.7 285.9 287.7 286.4 290.2 1.4

2015 168.8 166.0 166.4 157.8 0.5 174.8 171.9 173.2 179.6 0.5

4Q 2014 222.0 227.8 230.0 218.0 4.8 246.4 251.5 256.3 261.0 0.7

1Q 2015 153.9 151.7 152.1 165.9 -9.1 194.4 189.3 188.0 186.9 5.3

2Q 2015 197.2 194.1 191.8 181.2 0.5 188.3 185.6 186.1 192.9 0.3

3Q 2015 185.7 180.9 186.1 156.3 8.6 171.5 167.9 170.0 179.2 -1.1

4Q 2015 138.4 137.2 135.5 127.9 1.9 145.0 144.9 148.7 159.4 -2.3

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -37.7% -39.8% -41.1% -41.3% -41.2% -42.4% -42.0% -38.9%

Jan-15 143.5 144.7 161.8 173.3 -1.4 184.7 185.5 200.9 200.7 3.2

Feb-15 141.5 137.1 134.1 149.9 -3.5 168.6 164.5 167.1 168.8 2.5

Mar-15 176.8 173.2 160.5 174.6 -22.4 229.9 218.0 196.1 191.2 10.3

Apr-15 178.0 179.3 182.6 172.6 0.3 171.8 172.6 178.2 183.2 1.8

May-15 205.0 202.3 189.9 180.4 0.1 197.6 194.7 184.0 191.9 -0.5

Jun-15 208.6 200.5 202.8 190.6 1.2 195.5 189.4 196.3 203.6 -0.4

Jul-15 209.0 205.6 206.9 180.1 3.7 188.7 186.2 188.9 197.6 -0.7

Aug-15 184.1 183.0 191.1 157.2 6.0 158.4 159.3 168.2 177.8 -1.3

Sep-15 164.0 154.0 160.4 131.6 16.3 167.4 158.2 152.8 162.1 -1.4

Oct-15 138.9 136.7 138.2 127.7 1.8 151.3 149.6 153.9 164.3 -2.1

Nov-15 140.5 136.8 134.9 128.3 1.8 149.9 148.6 149.9 161.4 -2.6

Dec-15 135.9 138.2 133.5 127.7 2.1 133.7 136.4 142.4 152.3 -2.3

Jan-16 126.7 125.8 125.4 144.6 -1.0 110.1 110.3 117.9 124.4 -3.1

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -11.7% -13.1% -22.5% -16.5% -40.4% -40.5% -41.3% -38.0%


A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel)

Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. Edmonton Light Sweet prices are discontinued as of May 1, 2014 and replaced by the Canadian Light Crude

blend which is traded daily on the Net Energy Index. 3. Hardisty Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal;

Natural Resources Canada.

Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon.

Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas

2013 106.60 105.51 105.57 108.69 109.89 108.05 96.71 105.10 97.77 105.16 111.41 107.32

2014 97.07 96.61 96.94 99.00 99.78 98.01 86.87 95.21 87.25 93.58 100.77 98.63

2015 49.87 50.96 51.31 52.44 53.21 51.94 41.17 48.15 44.97 51.14 52.99 49.24

4Q 2014 74.04 74.44 75.25 76.28 76.76 75.69 65.25 72.09 66.74 74.73 77.47 73.44

1Q 2015 50.15 52.03 52.77 53.97 54.96 53.30 44.05 48.36 45.02 49.87 54.57 52.13

2Q 2015 60.43 61.28 61.34 61.84 62.53 62.18 52.11 58.72 55.83 62.12 62.72 60.54

3Q 2015 49.01 49.80 49.92 50.29 50.93 49.75 37.94 47.70 42.85 49.96 50.62 45.46

4Q 2015 39.90 40.74 41.21 43.67 44.43 42.50 30.59 37.83 36.16 42.62 44.04 38.82

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -46.1% -45.3% -45.2% -42.7% -42.1% -43.8% -53.1% -47.5% -45.8% -43.0% -43.2% -47.1%

Dec-14 60.13 60.25 61.16 62.53 63.15 61.53 51.17 58.25 53.86 59.74 63.81 59.95

Jan-15 44.47 45.57 46.61 47.86 48.48 47.03 37.96 42.31 42.26 45.52 48.51 46.37

Feb-15 53.78 55.85 56.58 58.13 59.22 57.81 48.41 52.25 47.00 52.68 58.46 55.90

Mar-15 52.20 54.66 55.12 55.93 57.18 55.07 45.79 50.52 45.79 51.41 56.75 54.11

Apr-15 57.73 58.55 58.66 59.50 60.51 59.70 49.49 55.96 52.73 59.10 60.65 58.55

May-15 62.62 63.54 63.60 64.32 64.86 64.33 55.09 60.92 58.04 63.78 65.31 62.98

Jun-15 60.94 61.76 61.77 61.69 62.21 62.52 51.74 59.29 56.71 63.48 62.19 60.09

Jul-15 54.95 56.15 56.23 56.54 57.02 55.84 44.43 53.85 47.78 55.62 56.77 51.86

Aug-15 46.52 47.87 47.87 46.72 47.53 46.22 35.26 45.28 39.75 46.56 47.07 42.46

Sep-15 45.56 45.38 45.65 47.61 48.24 47.19 34.13 43.96 41.03 47.71 48.01 42.05

Oct-15 45.37 45.84 46.07 48.56 49.23 47.49 35.48 43.61 39.91 46.90 49.16 42.13

Nov-15 40.64 41.79 42.10 44.30 45.10 43.05 31.87 38.39 36.40 43.29 44.81 40.79

Dec-15 33.70 34.59 35.45 38.16 38.96 36.97 24.42 31.49 32.18 37.68 38.16 33.53

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -44.0% -42.6% -42.0% -39.0% -38.3% -39.9% -52.3% -45.9% -40.3% -36.9% -40.2% -44.1%

United States Canada Light vs. Heavy

ANS1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS

Okla.

Sw.

Kans.

Sw.

Mich.

So.

Wyo.

Sw.

CDN

Sweet2 HH3

2013 100.20 106.62 99.05 94.46 89.46 87.65 94.46 93.48 86.46 90.27 92.93 78.90

2014 94.79 94.13 87.39 88.44 83.44 82.19 88.44 85.77 80.44 83.52 91.36 81.69

2015 51.64 50.91 42.28 45.63 40.63 39.38 45.63 44.40 37.63 42.34 57.18 45.54

4Q 2014 85.16 66.61 59.72 64.25 59.25 58.00 64.25 63.25 56.25 59.65 75.03 67.45

1Q 2015 60.55 52.27 41.63 46.33 41.33 40.08 46.33 44.42 38.33 42.56 53.33 43.37

2Q 2015 48.46 61.76 53.02 55.33 50.33 49.08 55.33 54.42 47.33 51.58 68.68 57.43

3Q 2015 57.69 47.85 40.37 42.58 37.58 36.33 42.58 41.50 34.58 39.26 54.71 44.31

4Q 2015 39.88 41.77 34.08 38.25 33.25 32.00 38.25 37.25 30.25 35.94 0.00 0.00

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -53.2% -37.3% -42.9% -40.5% -43.9% -44.8% -40.5% -41.1% -46.2% -39.8% -100.0% -100.0%

Dec-14 76.76 55.81 49.05 53.00 48.00 46.75 53.00 52.00 45.00 49.27 61.98 50.47

Jan-15 85.02 48.28 40.40 44.75 39.75 38.50 44.75 43.75 36.75 40.99 48.48 37.55

Feb-15 53.97 54.05 41.55 46.25 41.25 40.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 42.51 55.75 46.28

Mar-15 42.65 54.47 42.95 48.00 43.00 41.75 48.00 44.25 40.00 44.18 55.75 46.28

Apr-15 46.82 61.44 51.15 53.75 48.75 47.50 53.75 52.75 45.75 49.90 62.72 49.82

May-15 46.61 62.72 54.05 56.25 51.25 50.00 56.25 55.25 48.25 52.47 70.64 58.42

Jun-15 51.94 61.13 53.85 56.00 51.00 49.75 56.00 55.25 48.00 52.38 72.68 64.04

Jul-15 57.76 49.87 41.75 43.50 38.50 37.25 43.50 42.50 35.50 39.87 59.45 56.69

Aug-15 57.55 47.72 40.65 42.00 37.00 35.75 42.00 40.75 34.00 37.97 48.41 34.09

Sep-15 57.76 45.95 38.70 42.25 37.25 36.00 42.25 41.25 34.25 39.95 56.26 42.17

Oct-15 41.44 47.09 38.85 43.00 38.00 36.75 43.00 42.00 35.00 40.84 57.34 41.03

Nov-15 40.48 42.46 33.85 38.25 33.25 32.00 38.25 37.25 30.25 35.96 52.90 37.51

Dec-15 37.72 35.76 29.55 33.50 28.50 27.25 33.50 32.50 25.50 31.01 45.81 32.63

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -50.9% -35.9% -39.8% -36.8% -40.6% -41.7% -36.8% -37.5% -43.3% -37.1% -26.1% -35.3%


A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)

A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel)

Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny

Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

Notes: 1. Edmonton Light Sweet prices are discontinued as of May 1, 2014 and replaced by the Canadian Light Crude blend which is traded daily on the Net Energy Index. 2. Hardisty Heavy. Based on contract prices at the end of each month. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada.

Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour

Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff.

CDN

Sweet2 HH2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff.

2013 106.60 103.96 2.64 105.16 97.74 7.42 90.13 76.52 13.61 87.65 89.46 -1.81

2014 97.07 93.57 3.50 93.58 85.88 7.69 82.59 73.85 8.74 82.19 83.44 -1.25

2015 49.87 46.99 2.88 51.14 44.28 6.86 44.83 35.71 9.13 39.38 40.63 -1.25

4Q 2014 74.04 70.43 3.62 74.73 67.60 7.13 65.56 58.93 6.62 58.00 59.25 -1.25

1Q 2015 50.15 46.89 3.26 49.87 44.36 5.51 43.14 35.08 8.06 40.08 41.33 -1.25

2Q 2015 60.43 57.23 3.20 62.12 53.77 8.35 55.84 46.69 9.15 49.08 50.33 -1.25

3Q 2015 49.01 47.25 1.76 49.96 43.53 6.44 41.85 33.90 7.95 36.33 37.58 -1.25

4Q 2015 39.90 36.61 3.30 42.62 35.45 7.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 32.00 33.25 -1.25

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -46.1% -48.0% -43.0% -47.6% -100.0% -100.0% -44.8% -43.9%

Dec-14 60.13 56.65 3.48 59.74 52.52 7.22 52.46 42.72 9.74 46.75 48.00 -1.25

Jan-15 44.47 40.25 4.22 45.52 40.11 5.41 40.11 31.06 9.04 38.50 39.75 -1.25

Feb-15 53.78 51.07 2.71 52.68 47.31 5.37 44.58 37.01 7.58 40.00 41.25 -1.25

Mar-15 52.20 49.34 2.86 51.41 45.67 5.74 44.58 37.01 7.58 41.75 43.00 -1.25

Apr-15 57.73 54.26 3.47 59.10 49.53 9.57 50.79 40.34 10.45 47.50 48.75 -1.25

May-15 62.62 59.42 3.20 63.78 55.16 8.62 57.96 47.93 10.03 50.00 51.25 -1.25

Jun-15 60.94 58.01 2.93 63.48 56.63 6.85 58.78 51.79 6.99 49.75 51.00 -1.25

Jul-15 54.95 53.55 1.40 55.62 50.53 5.09 46.29 44.14 2.15 37.25 38.50 -1.25

Aug-15 46.52 44.82 1.70 46.56 40.55 6.01 36.85 25.94 10.91 35.75 37.00 -1.25

Sep-15 45.56 43.37 2.19 47.71 39.50 8.21 42.49 31.85 10.64 36.00 37.25 -1.25

Oct-15 45.37 43.01 2.36 46.90 39.20 7.70 43.88 31.40 12.48 36.75 38.00 -1.25

Nov-15 40.64 37.00 3.64 43.29 35.69 7.60 39.83 28.25 11.58 32.00 33.25 -1.25

Dec-15 33.70 29.81 3.89 37.68 31.47 6.21 33.41 23.80 9.61 27.25 28.50 -1.25

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -44.0% -47.4% -36.9% -40.1% -36.3% -44.3% -41.7% -40.6%

Spot Prices Differentials

WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket

2013 98.03 108.68 105.44 108.39 105.94 -11.87 -8.63 -11.58 -9.12

2014 93.28 98.94 96.52 97.97 96.19 -2.41 0.01 -1.44 0.34

2015 48.71 52.37 50.84 51.50 49.52 -2.69 -1.16 -1.82 0.16

4Q 2014 73.62 76.61 74.13 75.94 73.36 6.69 9.17 7.36 9.94

1Q 2015 48.49 53.96 51.72 52.93 50.30 -2.88 -0.64 -1.85 0.78

2Q 2015 57.85 61.87 61.23 61.53 59.89 -8.55 -7.91 -8.21 -6.57

3Q 2015 46.47 50.44 50.01 49.75 48.16 -0.05 0.38 0.64 2.23

4Q 2015 42.03 43.71 40.71 42.30 39.72 0.21 3.21 1.62 4.20

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -42.9% -42.9% -45.1% -44.3% -45.9%

Dec-14 59.47 62.57 60.22 61.34 59.46 -6.05 -3.70 -4.82 -2.94

Jan-15 47.27 47.84 45.62 46.48 44.38 -1.45 0.77 -0.09 2.01

Feb-15 50.61 58.09 55.42 57.61 54.06 -7.75 -5.08 -7.27 -3.72

Mar-15 47.79 56.05 54.53 54.82 52.46 -10.33 -8.81 -9.10 -6.74

Apr-15 54.46 59.79 58.37 59.44 57.30 -4.53 -3.11 -4.18 -2.04

May-15 59.27 64.35 63.58 63.67 62.16 -5.37 -4.60 -4.69 -3.18

Jun-15 59.80 61.63 61.84 61.57 60.21 -1.95 -2.16 -1.89 -0.53

Jul-15 50.90 56.48 56.20 55.87 54.19 -6.12 -5.84 -5.51 -3.83

Aug-15 42.86 46.60 47.64 45.76 45.46 -5.46 -6.50 -4.62 -4.32

Sep-15 45.45 47.61 45.45 46.98 44.83 -1.78 0.38 -1.15 1.00

Oct-15 46.20 48.51 45.92 47.31 45.02 -2.96 -0.37 -1.76 0.53

Nov-15 42.75 44.26 41.76 42.37 40.50 -3.87 -1.37 -1.98 -0.11

Dec-15 37.24 38.13 34.55 36.98 33.64 -3.39 0.19 -2.24 1.10

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -37.4% -39.1% -42.6% -39.7% -43.4%


A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel)

A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities (¢US per gallon)

Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status

Report.

Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes

Gasoline1 No. 6 3%2 Jet/Ker. Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3 Gasoline1 Gasoil Resid.3

2013 114.66 92.96 122.77 116.69 123.40 91.47 118.98 123.24 96.39

2014 106.68 82.82 113.25 108.16 112.63 81.04 110.75 112.53 87.22

2015 66.94 40.73 63.92 67.02 65.48 37.85 69.09 64.47 44.55

4Q 2014 78.12 62.38 91.93 84.41 91.21 61.15 87.39 90.04 67.69

1Q 2015 63.89 44.30 68.11 63.79 69.16 40.74 67.08 68.08 48.30

2Q 2015 82.07 50.94 73.83 80.08 76.66 48.84 80.94 75.00 55.91

3Q 2015 69.59 38.07 60.48 70.31 63.48 35.94 69.27 60.75 41.10

4Q 2015 52.06 29.74 53.25 54.42 53.23 26.49 59.34 54.36 33.25

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -33.4% -52.3% -42.1% -35.5% -41.6% -56.7% -32.1% -39.6% -50.9%

Dec-14 60.49 48.91 75.47 66.20 76.95 46.58 71.71 76.84 54.80

Jan-15 53.61 38.53 63.07 54.20 63.06 34.64 57.24 62.64 42.94

Feb-15 67.30 48.61 72.93 66.10 74.34 44.45 70.33 71.19 52.69

Mar-15 70.31 45.84 68.32 70.86 70.27 43.18 73.82 70.73 49.83

Apr-15 76.63 48.56 71.50 75.57 73.77 47.19 75.56 72.38 52.92

May-15 83.36 52.41 77.25 80.72 79.43 51.12 83.68 78.05 58.72

Jun-15 86.09 51.88 72.75 83.63 76.89 48.37 83.70 74.73 56.22

Jul-15 81.50 44.40 64.77 81.21 68.74 42.27 75.84 65.06 47.86

Aug-15 69.72 35.11 58.37 68.23 60.19 33.11 65.89 57.12 37.68

Sep-15 56.97 34.42 58.29 60.82 60.98 31.89 65.26 59.45 36.92

Oct-15 54.57 34.66 58.40 56.78 58.97 32.12 63.46 59.09 37.30

Nov-15 52.06 31.77 55.75 56.64 55.44 27.75 58.92 57.41 35.26

Dec-15 49.54 23.08 45.61 49.73 44.98 19.33 55.60 46.86 27.38

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -18.1% -52.8% -39.6% -24.9% -41.5% -58.5% -22.5% -39.0% -50.0%

NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles

Gasoline1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline1 Distill.

2013 281.29 292.59 301.40 269.60 292.34 296.78 292.19 301.28

2014 261.23 269.64 280.48 248.81 269.65 271.08 266.81 278.58

2015 161.18 154.68 166.33 155.30 152.55 157.92 194.58 166.03

4Q 2014 208.20 217.63 233.20 184.63 218.60 219.93 195.67 229.37

1Q 2015 153.83 170.70 184.17 151.73 163.03 168.87 175.33 174.50

2Q 2015 191.20 177.20 189.87 185.43 176.10 183.17 227.10 191.60

3Q 2015 164.67 145.57 157.20 159.57 144.43 151.03 215.10 157.90

4Q 2015 135.00 125.23 134.10 124.47 126.63 128.60 160.77 140.13

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -35.2% -42.5% -42.5% -32.6% -42.1% -41.5% -17.8% -38.9%

Dec-14 168.30 185.60 203.40 142.30 180.10 178.40 150.80 189.60

Jan-15 136.40 161.60 167.80 127.10 149.60 153.10 130.10 155.90

Feb-15 160.70 187.30 199.10 160.30 176.60 182.40 194.20 195.10

Mar-15 164.40 163.20 185.60 167.80 162.90 171.10 201.70 172.50

Apr-15 179.30 172.20 184.30 173.40 170.20 177.60 215.40 181.20

May-15 193.80 183.20 196.50 188.40 184.90 191.70 247.20 204.00

Jun-15 200.50 176.20 188.80 194.50 173.20 180.20 218.70 189.60

Jul-15 186.00 155.70 168.40 186.00 154.90 162.40 266.30 171.60

Aug-15 162.00 138.70 151.60 157.40 138.90 146.30 207.50 151.90

Sep-15 146.00 142.30 151.60 135.30 139.50 144.40 171.50 150.20

Oct-15 139.70 140.40 147.20 130.70 139.10 141.80 166.90 155.30

Nov-15 137.70 131.60 141.30 124.60 132.60 135.10 150.70 143.80

Dec-15 127.60 103.70 113.80 118.10 108.20 108.90 164.70 121.30

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -24.2% -44.1% -44.1% -17.0% -39.9% -39.0% 9.2% -36.0%


B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-OECD supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on

historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and loss-

es. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes

crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products.

Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

OECD Non-OECD OPEC World

N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total2 Total3

Demand

2011 24.0 14.3 8.2 46.4 19.3 11.4 4.6 35.3 4.9 2.9 7.9 89.5

2012 23.6 13.8 8.5 45.9 19.9 12.0 4.6 36.5 5.1 3.0 8.2 90.7

2013 24.1 13.6 8.3 46.0 20.7 12.1 4.7 37.5 5.3 3.1 8.5 91.9

2014 24.1 13.5 8.1 45.7 21.1 12.1 4.9 38.1 5.5 3.2 8.9 92.8

2015 24.4 13.7 8.1 46.2 22.2 12.1 4.9 39.2 5.8 3.4 9.2 94.5

4Q 2013 24.3 13.6 8.6 46.6 20.9 12.0 5.0 37.9 5.3 3.1 8.5 93.0

1Q 2014 23.9 13.0 8.9 45.8 21.0 11.6 4.6 37.2 5.5 3.2 8.9 91.9

2Q 2014 23.7 13.4 7.7 44.8 21.3 12.3 4.9 38.5 5.5 3.2 8.9 92.0

3Q 2014 24.4 13.9 7.7 45.9 20.8 12.6 5.1 38.5 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.2

4Q 2014 24.6 13.5 8.3 46.4 21.7 12.0 5.0 38.7 5.5 3.2 8.9 94.0

1Q 2015 24.2 13.5 8.7 46.4 21.9 11.3 4.6 37.8 5.8 3.4 9.2 93.5

2Q 2015 24.1 13.5 7.6 45.3 22.4 12.2 4.9 39.5 5.8 3.4 9.2 93.9

3Q 2015 24.7 14.1 7.8 46.7 22.1 12.5 5.0 39.6 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.4

4Q 2015 24.5 13.6 8.3 46.3 22.5 12.0 5.0 39.5 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.1

Supply

2011 14.6 3.8 0.6 20.1 7.7 8.5 13.6 30.7 25.7 9.6 35.8 88.6

2012 15.8 3.5 0.6 21.0 6.9 8.0 13.8 29.6 26.2 10.6 37.6 90.9

2013 17.2 3.3 0.5 22.2 6.9 8.0 13.9 29.8 26.2 9.8 36.7 91.4

2014 19.1 3.3 0.5 24.1 6.8 8.1 13.9 29.8 26.8 9.0 37.5 93.7

2015 19.9 3.4 0.5 25.0 7.0 8.2 14.0 30.2 28.2 8.6 38.7 96.3

4Q 2013 17.8 3.4 0.5 22.8 7.7 8.0 14.0 30.7 26.4 9.0 36.1 91.9

1Q 2014 18.3 3.5 0.5 23.5 6.8 7.9 13.9 29.6 26.7 9.0 36.3 92.2

2Q 2014 18.9 3.2 0.5 23.8 6.8 8.0 13.8 29.6 26.8 9.0 36.4 93.1

3Q 2014 19.3 3.1 0.5 24.1 6.8 8.2 13.8 29.8 26.9 9.3 37.0 94.3

4Q 2014 19.9 3.4 0.5 25.0 7.0 8.3 13.9 30.2 26.8 9.4 37.0 95.4

1Q 2015 20.0 3.4 0.4 25.0 7.1 8.3 14.0 30.4 27.3 8.8 36.9 95.1

2Q 2015 19.6 3.5 0.4 24.7 7.1 8.1 14.0 30.2 28.3 8.9 38.0 96.3

3Q 2015 20.0 3.3 0.5 25.1 7.0 8.1 13.9 30.0 28.6 8.6 39.1 97.0

4Q 2015 20.0 3.5 0.5 25.1 7.0 8.1 14.0 30.1 28.6 8.6 39.1 96.9

Balance

2011 -9.4 -10.5 -7.6 -26.3 -11.6 -2.9 9.0 -4.6 20.8 6.7 28.0 -0.9

2012 -7.8 -10.3 -7.9 -24.9 -13.0 -4.0 9.2 -6.9 21.1 7.6 29.4 0.2

2013 -6.9 -10.3 -7.8 -23.8 -13.8 -4.1 9.2 -7.7 20.9 6.7 28.2 -0.5

2014 -5.0 -10.2 -7.6 -21.6 -14.3 -4.0 9.0 -8.3 21.2 5.7 28.6 0.9

2015 -4.5 -10.3 -7.6 -21.2 -15.2 -3.9 9.1 -9.0 22.4 5.3 29.5 1.8

4Q 2013 -6.5 -10.2 -8.1 -23.8 -13.2 -4.0 9.0 -7.2 21.1 5.8 27.6 -1.1

1Q 2014 -5.6 -9.5 -8.4 -22.3 -14.2 -3.7 9.3 -7.6 21.2 5.8 27.4 0.3

2Q 2014 -4.8 -10.2 -7.2 -21.0 -14.5 -4.3 8.9 -8.9 21.3 5.7 27.6 1.1

3Q 2014 -5.1 -10.8 -7.2 -21.8 -14.0 -4.4 8.7 -8.7 21.3 6.1 28.1 1.1

4Q 2014 -4.7 -10.1 -7.8 -21.4 -14.7 -3.7 8.9 -8.5 21.3 6.1 28.1 1.4

1Q 2015 -4.2 -10.1 -8.3 -21.4 -14.8 -3.0 9.4 -7.4 21.5 5.4 27.7 1.6

2Q 2015 -4.5 -10.0 -7.2 -20.6 -15.3 -4.1 9.1 -9.2 22.5 5.5 28.8 2.4

3Q 2015 -4.7 -10.8 -7.3 -21.6 -15.1 -4.4 8.9 -9.6 22.9 5.2 29.9 1.6

4Q 2015 -4.5 -10.1 -7.8 -21.2 -15.5 -3.9 9.0 -9.4 22.8 5.3 29.8 1.8


B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day)

B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve

estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy.

Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All

stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.


N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1

2013 17.14 3.32 0.48 20.94 7.73 7.97 13.80 29.50 26.18 9.80 36.72 87.16

2014 19.09 3.32 0.51 22.91 6.86 8.19 13.87 28.91 26.77 8.99 37.48 89.30

2015 19.90 3.44 0.46 23.80 7.06 8.26 13.98 29.29 28.18 8.64 38.68 91.77

4Q 2014 19.69 3.46 0.50 23.66 7.86 8.38 13.93 30.18 26.80 9.36 36.97 90.81

1Q 2015 19.88 3.41 0.43 23.72 7.90 8.39 14.05 30.33 27.26 8.81 36.94 90.99

2Q 2015 19.51 3.49 0.44 23.45 7.95 8.23 13.97 30.15 28.27 8.92 38.03 91.63

3Q 2015 20.05 3.34 0.50 23.90 7.03 8.21 13.91 29.16 28.63 8.59 39.09 92.15

4Q 2015 19.96 3.50 0.47 23.93 7.06 8.18 13.99 29.22 28.59 8.64 39.07 92.22

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.4% 1.2% -6.0% 1.1% -10.2% -2.4% 0.4% -3.2% 6.7% -7.7% 5.7% 1.6%

Dec-14 19.65 3.46 0.51 23.63 7.52 8.20 14.02 29.75 27.18 9.02 37.01 90.39

Jan-15 19.37 3.50 0.47 23.33 7.72 8.29 13.99 30.01 27.04 8.88 36.80 90.14

Feb-15 19.83 3.37 0.47 23.68 7.95 8.42 14.06 30.44 26.98 8.72 36.61 90.73

Mar-15 20.11 3.48 0.37 23.96 8.01 8.41 14.06 30.48 27.82 8.89 37.55 91.99

Apr-15 20.12 3.54 0.45 24.12 7.98 8.22 14.01 30.22 28.09 9.10 37.96 92.30

May-15 19.54 3.53 0.39 23.46 7.89 8.23 14.01 30.13 28.22 8.98 38.00 91.59

Jun-15 19.58 3.45 0.49 23.52 8.03 8.22 13.97 30.21 28.66 8.80 38.35 92.08

Jul-15 20.01 3.44 0.49 23.94 7.90 8.16 13.93 30.00 28.67 8.81 38.36 92.30

Aug-15 20.03 3.36 0.51 23.91 7.94 8.21 13.88 30.03 28.60 8.80 38.17 92.11

Sep-15 19.65 3.31 0.48 23.44 7.95 8.17 13.92 30.04 28.66 8.84 38.37 91.85

Oct-15 19.93 3.53 0.46 23.93 7.05 8.16 13.94 29.15 28.46 8.76 39.09 92.17

Nov-15 20.03 3.49 0.48 24.00 7.12 8.14 14.07 29.31 28.66 8.63 39.11 92.42

Dec-15 19.90 3.49 0.47 23.87 7.03 8.21 13.96 29.20 28.64 8.53 39.02 92.09

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.3% 0.9% -7.8% 1.0% -6.5% 0.1% -0.4% -1.8% 5.4% -5.3% 5.4% 1.9%

R/P Ratio2 32.0 10.0 23.9 28.6 13.6 22.5 27.8 22.9 76.5 128.3 84.2 50.6

North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD

Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product1 Total2

2012 501 704 1,362 307 539 906 159 170 397 967 1,413 2,665

2013 500 670 1,315 307 497 869 145 170 382 952 1,337 2,566

2014 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712

3Q 2014 512 720 1,411 305 512 887 164 183 422 981 1,415 2,720

4Q 2014 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712

1Q 2015 625 695 1,483 344 524 939 178 153 392 1,148 1,372 2,815

2Q 2015 626 735 1,537 344 523 939 201 165 430 1,171 1,423 2,906

3Q 2015 617 763 1,572 339 556 965 202 176 445 1,158 1,495 2,981

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 20.5% 6.1% 11.4% 11.3% 8.7% 8.8% 23.1% -4.0% 5.5% 18.1% 5.7% 9.6%

Nov-14 544 706 1,424 298 509 877 156 182 406 998 1,397 2,707

Dec-14 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712

Jan-15 576 714 1,456 314 529 905 167 167 399 1,058 1,410 2,760

Feb-15 601 693 1,454 322 526 914 173 158 392 1,096 1,377 2,761

Mar-15 625 695 1,483 344 524 939 178 153 392 1,148 1,372 2,815

Apr-15 638 704 1,512 350 520 939 171 158 391 1,158 1,382 2,842

May-15 629 725 1,528 344 532 947 198 168 430 1,171 1,425 2,905

Jun-15 626 735 1,537 344 523 939 201 165 430 1,171 1,423 2,906

Jul-15 617 738 1,542 339 526 933 205 170 439 1,161 1,434 2,914

Aug-15 614 759 1,564 343 551 962 205 178 449 1,162 1,488 2,975

Sep-15 617 763 1,572 339 556 965 202 176 445 1,158 1,495 2,981

Oct-15 643 745 1,576 347 550 967 205 169 439 1,195 1,463 2,982

Nov-15 645 746 1,581 344 554 965 198 170 435 1,187 1,470 2,982

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 18.5% 5.6% 11.0% 15.4% 9.0% 10.1% 26.9% -6.5% 7.2% 18.9% 5.3% 10.1%


B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. 3. OPEC-10 production targets. 4. As

of latest month. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel)

Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on

spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.

Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-11 OPEC-11

Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Venez. Nigeria Libya Algeria Angola Ecuador Total1 Target Iraq2

2013 9.66 2.68 2.76 2.81 0.73 2.50 1.95 0.90 1.15 1.72 0.52 27.38 30.00 3.08

2014 9.72 2.81 2.76 2.80 0.71 2.46 1.90 0.46 1.12 1.66 0.55 27.65 30.00 3.33

2015 10.17 2.86 2.88 2.79 0.66 2.40 1.80 0.40 1.11 1.76 0.54 28.04 30.00 3.98

4Q 2014 9.64 2.80 2.75 2.78 0.68 2.44 1.88 0.67 1.13 1.72 0.55 27.03 30.00 3.48

1Q 2015 9.87 2.82 2.84 2.80 0.67 2.39 1.81 0.37 1.11 1.77 0.55 26.99 30.00 3.50

2Q 2015 10.34 2.85 2.87 2.77 0.66 2.43 1.77 0.46 1.11 1.76 0.55 27.56 30.00 3.94

3Q 2015 10.29 2.87 2.92 2.78 0.64 2.40 1.80 0.38 1.12 1.77 0.53 28.17 30.00 4.24

4Q 2015 10.18 2.89 2.89 2.78 0.68 2.38 1.82 0.40 1.11 1.76 0.54 28.09 30.00 4.24

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.7% 3.2% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% -2.5% -3.2% -40.3% -1.8% 2.3% -1.8% 3.9% 21.8%

Dec-14 9.62 2.84 2.80 2.77 0.67 2.42 1.86 0.44 1.12 1.73 0.55 26.82 30.00 3.73

Jan-15 9.69 2.82 2.84 2.80 0.67 2.40 1.87 0.34 1.10 1.77 0.56 26.85 30.00 3.44

Feb-15 9.71 2.84 2.84 2.80 0.67 2.38 1.83 0.29 1.10 1.79 0.53 26.78 30.00 3.32

Mar-15 10.19 2.79 2.84 2.80 0.68 2.40 1.74 0.48 1.12 1.75 0.55 27.34 30.00 3.70

Apr-15 10.21 2.88 2.87 2.81 0.67 2.44 1.80 0.52 1.11 1.73 0.55 27.57 30.00 3.75

May-15 10.31 2.85 2.87 2.77 0.66 2.44 1.76 0.45 1.11 1.77 0.55 27.52 30.00 3.84

Jun-15 10.48 2.82 2.88 2.74 0.66 2.42 1.78 0.41 1.11 1.78 0.54 27.62 30.00 4.19

Jul-15 10.38 2.87 2.91 2.74 0.62 2.42 1.77 0.39 1.11 1.80 0.54 27.55 30.00 4.25

Aug-15 10.28 2.87 2.93 2.80 0.65 2.40 1.77 0.37 1.13 1.73 0.53 27.46 30.00 4.17

Sep-15 10.20 2.88 2.91 2.81 0.65 2.38 1.86 0.37 1.12 1.79 0.53 27.5 30.00 4.30

Oct-15 10.21 2.88 2.89 2.73 0.67 2.38 1.90 0.43 1.11 1.78 0.53 28.18 30.00 4.17

Nov-15 10.19 2.87 2.89 2.80 0.68 2.40 1.80 0.39 1.11 1.74 0.54 28.08 30.00 4.29

Dec-15 10.14 2.91 2.89 2.81 0.68 2.37 1.76 0.38 1.11 1.76 0.54 28.02 30.00 4.26

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.4% 2.5% 3.2% 1.4% 1.5% -2.1% -5.4% -13.6% -0.9% 1.7% -1.8% 4.5% 14.2%

Quotas3 8.05 3.34 2.22 2.22 0.73 1.99 1.67 1.47 1.20 1.52 0.43 30.00

Over/Under4 26.0% -12.9% 30.2% 26.6% -6.8% 19.1% 5.4% -74.1% -7.5% 15.8% 25.6% -6.6%

Persian Gulf

North America Europe Asia-Pacific OECD

Input Util. Margin1 Input Util. Margin2 Input Util. Margin3 Input Util.

2012 18.1 86.3 1.72 12.1 79.5 5.80 6.8 75.8 -0.65 37.0 81.9

2013 18.4 87.7 1.40 11.5 75.2 3.48 6.7 75.1 -1.63 36.6 81.0

2014 18.9 90.0 1.67 11.4 75.0 3.35 6.5 73.2 -1.98 36.8 81.6

3Q 2014 19.4 92.4 2.99 11.7 76.6 4.79 6.6 73.6 -2.7 37.6 83.4

4Q 2014 18.9 90.0 -1.03 11.8 77.4 4.72 6.6 74.1 -0.1 37.3 82.6

1Q 2015 18.5 88.2 5.93 12.0 78.4 7.03 7.1 78.8 2.6 37.5 83.0

2Q 2015 19.4 92.3 5.89 11.8 77.4 8.10 6.4 71.8 0.5 37.6 83.2

3Q 2015 19.5 92.9 7.30 12.4 81.3 8.91 6.7 75.3 -1.1 38.6 85.5

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.5% 144.3% 6.1% 86.0% 2.4% -58.0% 2.6%

Oct-14 18.2 86.6 0.19 11.8 77.6 4.56 6.3 69.9 -2.0 36.2 80.3

Nov-14 19.0 90.5 -0.87 11.9 77.9 5.93 6.7 74.7 1.0 37.5 83.1

Dec-14 19.5 92.8 -2.42 11.7 76.8 3.68 7.0 77.7 0.6 38.1 84.4

Jan-15 18.5 88.1 2.80 11.9 77.9 5.75 7.1 79.7 2.7 37.5 83.0

Feb-15 18.4 87.7 8.01 12.2 79.9 6.60 7.2 80.0 2.6 37.7 83.6

Mar-15 18.6 88.7 6.98 11.8 77.5 8.75 6.9 76.8 2.5 37.3 82.6

Apr-15 19.1 91.1 4.55 11.8 77.6 7.71 6.7 75.2 0.5 37.7 83.4

May-15 19.3 92.2 5.58 11.9 78.0 7.40 6.4 71.0 0.7 37.6 83.2

Jun-15 19.6 93.7 7.53 11.7 76.5 9.18 6.2 69.2 0.2 37.5 83.0

Jul-15 19.8 94.2 9.75 12.3 80.8 9.53 6.8 75.4 -2.3 38.8 86.0

Aug-15 19.7 93.9 8.54 12.4 81.4 10.05 7.0 78.0 -1.4 39.1 86.5

Sep-15 19.0 90.6 3.60 12.5 81.7 7.15 6.5 72.4 0.2 37.9 84.0

Oct-15 18.3 87.4 4.12 12.3 80.6 4.24 6.5 72.1 -0.8 37.1 82.0

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.8% 2068.4% 4.0% -7% 3.2% -59.6% 2.2%


C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock chang-

es in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-

conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

United States1 East Mid-West

Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2012 10.82 18.54 7.41 0.15 0.15 5.16 -5.02 2.57 4.79 -2.21

2013 12.11 18.89 6.20 -0.13 0.19 5.23 -5.04 2.90 4.88 -1.97

2014 13.67 19.03 5.04 0.26 0.31 5.45 -5.14 3.35 4.91 -1.56

3Q 2014 13.93 19.16 4.99 0.23 0.33 5.34 -5.00 3.48 4.98 -1.49

4Q 2014 14.38 19.45 4.62 0.24 0.37 5.55 -5.18 3.55 5.10 -1.55

1Q 2015 14.45 19.29 4.93 0.56 0.36 5.81 -5.45 3.56 4.99 -1.43

2Q 2015 14.91 19.25 4.61 0.69 0.43 5.49 -5.06 3.64 4.99 -1.36

3Q 2015 14.85 19.67 4.73 0.33 0.42 5.54 -5.12 3.60 5.11 -1.50

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.6% 2.7% -5.1% 25.9% 3.8% 3.4% 2.6%

Oct-14 14.23 19.63 4.79 -0.16 0.37 5.64 -5.28 3.51 5.19 -1.68

Nov-14 14.33 19.21 4.60 0.39 0.36 5.44 -5.08 3.51 5.07 -1.56

Dec-14 14.59 19.52 4.48 0.47 0.38 5.56 -5.18 3.65 5.05 -1.40

Jan-15 14.24 19.25 4.83 0.57 0.36 5.64 -5.28 3.54 4.91 -1.37

Feb-15 14.34 19.40 4.54 0.13 0.33 5.99 -5.65 3.54 5.08 -1.54

Mar-15 14.76 19.24 5.43 0.99 0.39 5.79 -5.40 3.59 4.97 -1.38

Apr-15 15.12 19.04 4.36 0.90 0.42 5.49 -5.07 3.58 4.88 -1.30

May-15 14.91 19.12 4.60 0.73 0.43 5.52 -5.09 3.65 5.01 -1.37

Jun-15 14.69 19.59 4.88 0.44 0.44 5.47 -5.03 3.68 5.08 -1.40

Jul-15 14.82 19.98 4.54 -0.09 0.43 5.58 -5.15 3.65 5.18 -1.53

Aug-15 14.91 19.81 5.20 0.73 0.42 5.61 -5.20 3.60 5.07 -1.47

Sep-15 14.83 19.23 4.45 0.33 0.41 5.42 -5.01 3.56 5.06 -1.51

Oct-15 14.90 19.35 4.17 0.26 0.41 5.50 -5.10 3.70 5.15 -1.44

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.7% -1.4% -13.0% 11.0% -2.5% 5.7% -0.8%

% of Total2 100.0% 100.0% 2.7% 28.4% 24.9% 26.6%

South-Central North-West West Finished Petroleum Products

Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2012 5.88 5.16 0.73 0.85 0.69 0.16 1.36 2.75 -1.39

2013 6.77 5.28 1.49 0.87 0.71 0.16 1.37 2.79 -1.42

2014 7.65 5.16 2.50 0.98 0.71 0.27 1.38 2.81 -1.43

3Q 2014 7.80 5.24 2.56 1.00 0.72 0.28 1.31 2.89 -1.58

4Q 2014 8.01 5.31 2.70 1.03 0.71 0.32 1.42 2.78 -1.36

1Q 2015 8.08 5.02 3.06 1.08 0.70 0.38 1.37 2.78 -1.41

2Q 2015 8.38 5.15 3.24 1.12 0.69 0.43 1.34 2.93 -1.58

3Q 2015 8.44 5.29 3.15 1.12 0.70 0.41 1.27 3.04 -1.77

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.2% 1.0% 11.7% -1.7% -3.2% 5.0%

Oct-14 7.93 5.19 2.74 1.02 0.73 0.29 1.41 2.88 -1.47

Nov-14 8.01 5.35 2.65 1.02 0.66 0.36 1.43 2.68 -1.25

Dec-14 8.11 5.39 2.72 1.04 0.74 0.30 1.42 2.78 -1.36

Jan-15 7.96 5.28 2.68 1.03 0.72 0.30 1.35 2.69 -1.33

Feb-15 8.03 4.78 3.24 1.08 0.73 0.35 1.36 2.82 -1.46

Mar-15 8.27 5.00 3.27 1.14 0.66 0.48 1.38 2.82 -1.44

Apr-15 8.59 5.05 3.54 1.14 0.69 0.46 1.39 2.93 -1.54

May-15 8.39 5.07 3.32 1.10 0.66 0.44 1.34 2.86 -1.51

Jun-15 8.17 5.32 2.85 1.10 0.72 0.38 1.30 3.00 -1.70

Jul-15 8.33 5.40 2.93 1.12 0.71 0.41 1.29 3.10 -1.82

Aug-15 8.54 5.33 3.21 1.12 0.74 0.38 1.23 3.06 -1.83

Sep-15 8.46 5.13 3.33 1.11 0.66 0.45 1.30 2.95 -1.65

Oct-15 8.39 5.05 3.34 1.10 0.69 0.42 1.31 2.96 -1.66

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.8% -2.6% 8.2% -5.5% -7.7% 2.7%

% of Total2 56.3% 26.1% 7.4% 3.6% 8.8% 15.3%


C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons.

Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic

Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply

Monthly.

Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum

Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2

2012 8.70 1.40 3.73 0.35 16.15 2.32 18.54

2013 8.77 1.42 3.84 0.32 16.32 2.45 18.89

2014 8.92 1.47 4.01 0.26 16.64 2.40 19.03

3Q 2014 9.09 1.51 3.86 0.24 16.96 2.26 19.16

4Q 2014 9.05 1.50 4.08 0.30 16.90 2.60 19.45

1Q 2015 8.81 1.45 4.27 0.24 16.62 2.72 19.29

2Q 2015 9.26 1.54 3.88 0.19 16.93 2.27 19.25

3Q 2015 9.39 1.59 3.93 0.31 17.41 2.29 19.67

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.3% 5.1% 1.7% 27.7% 2.7% 1.3% 2.7%

Oct-14 9.20 1.46 4.24 0.29 17.22 2.42 19.63

Nov-14 8.93 1.49 3.88 0.31 16.60 2.61 19.21

Dec-14 9.02 1.56 4.14 0.30 16.87 2.76 19.52

Jan-15 8.72 1.37 4.24 0.27 16.50 2.83 19.25

Feb-15 8.65 1.44 4.54 0.20 16.56 2.84 19.40

Mar-15 9.06 1.54 4.05 0.26 16.80 2.50 19.24

Apr-15 9.14 1.48 4.00 0.15 16.74 2.34 19.04

May-15 9.25 1.51 3.79 0.23 16.84 2.17 19.12

Jun-15 9.39 1.64 3.85 0.17 17.20 2.30 19.59

Jul-15 9.44 1.64 3.88 0.33 17.52 2.40 19.98

Aug-15 9.47 1.60 3.89 0.32 17.53 2.34 19.81

Sep-15 9.28 1.54 4.02 0.28 17.18 2.14 19.23

Oct-15 9.25 1.58 3.99 0.21 17.06 2.43 19.35

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.6% 8.2% -5.8% -27.4% -0.9% 0.2% -1.4%

Petroleum Stocks1 Crude Oil Finished Products

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total3

2012 152 287 1,178 38 151 1,807 1,060 57 39 135 34 314

2013 151 269 1,162 39 139 1,760 1,054 40 37 127 38 291

2014 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287

3Q 2014 156 275 1,221 41 142 1,835 1,052 29 40 131 37 283

4Q 2014 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287

1Q 2015 152 316 1,247 44 150 1,908 1,166 27 37 128 38 288

2Q 2015 171 322 1,290 43 145 1,971 1,163 26 44 139 42 305

3Q 2015 184 318 1,311 43 145 2,001 1,156 29 40 149 41 308

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 17.9% 15.5% 7.4% 4.8% 2.4% 9.1% 9.9% 0.9% 1.9% 13.4% 12.9% 8.9%

Oct-14 149 269 1,232 40 141 1,830 1,073 27 36 120 37 265

Nov-14 148 274 1,237 42 141 1,842 1,078 30 36 126 36 274

Dec-14 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287

Jan-15 164 297 1,227 42 145 1,874 1,112 30 38 132 34 287

Feb-15 152 302 1,235 42 146 1,878 1,139 31 39 123 37 284

Mar-15 152 316 1,247 44 150 1,908 1,166 27 37 128 38 288

Apr-15 157 323 1,267 45 144 1,935 1,174 26 38 129 39 289

May-15 164 320 1,285 44 145 1,958 1,172 27 42 134 41 301

Jun-15 171 322 1,290 43 145 1,971 1,163 26 44 139 42 305

Jul-15 173 323 1,289 43 141 1,969 1,151 24 44 142 40 302

Aug-15 179 329 1,299 42 142 1,991 1,153 26 43 152 39 310

Sep-15 184 318 1,311 43 145 2,001 1,156 29 40 149 41 308

Oct-15 185 314 1,319 43 148 2,009 1,182 28 38 143 43 299

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 23.9% 16.9% 7.1% 9.0% 5.1% 9.8% 10.1% 0.8% 4.7% 19.3% 16.9% 13.1%


C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA

Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude

oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

OPEC

Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total2 P. Gulf

2012 2.55 0.47 1.12 0.03 0.74 2.15 7.41 0.87 1.36 0.42 4.10 2.14

2013 2.59 0.39 0.74 -0.08 0.37 1.99 6.20 0.71 1.32 0.24 3.47 1.99

2014 2.58 0.29 0.56 -0.12 0.17 1.85 5.04 0.71 1.16 0.04 2.98 1.86

3Q 2014 2.57 0.26 0.59 -0.26 0.18 1.84 4.99 0.78 1.04 0.01 3.08 1.84

4Q 2014 2.72 0.21 0.59 -0.07 0.15 1.41 4.62 0.64 0.88 0.03 2.50 1.41

1Q 2015 2.97 0.16 0.65 -0.12 0.13 1.39 4.93 0.68 0.93 0.04 2.49 1.40

2Q 2015 2.69 0.12 0.71 -0.14 0.15 1.61 4.61 0.74 1.16 0.02 2.67 1.61

3Q 2015 2.80 0.01 0.88 -0.15 0.22 1.32 4.73 0.79 1.01 0.08 2.58 1.33

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.7% -95.2% 47.9% -42.9% 24.5% -27.9% -5.1% 1.3% -2.7% 597.1% -16.3% -27.8%

Oct-14 2.64 0.23 0.56 -0.01 0.13 1.36 4.79 0.61 0.82 -0.01 2.36 1.37

Nov-14 2.51 0.26 0.81 -0.11 0.08 1.58 4.60 0.71 1.01 -0.01 2.67 1.58

Dec-14 3.01 0.13 0.38 -0.11 0.24 1.29 4.48 0.59 0.81 0.10 2.45 1.29

Jan-15 2.95 0.04 0.63 -0.12 0.12 1.32 4.83 0.60 0.82 0.04 2.36 1.33

Feb-15 2.93 0.09 0.51 -0.10 0.11 1.41 4.54 0.71 0.94 -0.01 2.55 1.42

Mar-15 3.03 0.34 0.82 -0.14 0.17 1.44 5.43 0.74 1.04 0.09 2.56 1.45

Apr-15 2.84 0.15 0.78 -0.36 0.14 1.52 4.36 0.80 1.20 0.03 2.63 1.53

May-15 2.51 0.03 0.71 0.05 0.19 1.71 4.60 0.77 1.21 0.05 2.82 1.72

Jun-15 2.73 0.20 0.63 -0.12 0.12 1.60 4.88 0.64 1.08 -0.01 2.55 1.60

Jul-15 2.53 -0.05 0.81 -0.10 0.24 1.45 4.54 0.70 1.17 0.11 2.63 1.46

Aug-15 2.98 0.09 1.03 -0.01 0.18 1.25 5.21 0.85 1.01 0.05 2.50 1.25

Sep-15 2.88 0.00 0.79 -0.34 0.25 1.28 4.45 0.81 0.86 0.08 2.61 1.28

Oct-15 2.43 0.03 0.67 -0.27 0.14 1.54 4.17 0.73 0.98 0.04 2.68 1.54

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -8.1% -88.9% 19.0% 5340.0% 10.8% 12.5% -13.0% 20.2% 19.3% -522.2% 13.6% 12.4%

% of Total3 58.3% 0.6% 16.1% -6.5% 3.5% 36.8% 100.0% 17.5% 23.6% 0.9% 64.3% 36.8%

Region of Origin

PAD District U.S. Major Producers

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif.1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex.2

2012 0.02 1.06 3.60 0.42 1.12 6.22 0.54 0.58 0.19 1.83 1.25

2013 0.03 1.34 4.33 0.50 1.11 7.31 0.52 0.59 0.20 2.47 1.28

2014 0.04 1.62 5.00 0.58 1.11 8.35 0.50 0.60 0.19 3.04 1.35

3Q 2014 0.04 1.67 5.08 0.61 1.08 8.48 0.48 0.60 0.19 3.07 1.39

4Q 2014 0.04 1.77 5.32 0.63 1.08 8.85 0.47 0.61 0.19 3.26 1.43

1Q 2015 0.05 1.86 5.65 0.68 1.14 9.38 0.53 0.62 0.19 3.52 1.46

2Q 2015 0.05 1.77 5.65 0.73 1.09 9.28 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.54 1.43

3Q 2015 0.06 1.82 5.71 0.76 1.05 9.39 0.47 0.58 0.17 3.52 1.48

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 42.3% 9.0% 12.5% 24.1% -3.1% 10.8% -1.8% -4.1% -11.1% 15.0% 6.6%

Oct-14 0.04 1.73 5.26 0.61 1.01 8.65 0.40 0.61 0.19 3.18 1.44

Nov-14 0.04 1.80 5.30 0.63 1.09 8.86 0.48 0.61 0.19 3.25 1.42

Dec-14 0.04 1.80 5.41 0.65 1.15 9.05 0.54 0.61 0.19 3.36 1.42

Jan-15 0.04 1.72 5.25 0.62 1.09 8.73 0.50 0.59 0.18 3.29 1.34

Feb-15 0.05 2.03 6.15 0.74 1.25 10.21 0.58 0.67 0.20 3.82 1.60

Mar-15 0.05 1.82 5.55 0.68 1.09 9.19 0.50 0.58 0.18 3.46 1.44

Apr-15 0.04 1.67 5.21 0.66 1.04 8.62 0.46 0.58 0.16 3.23 1.36

May-15 0.05 1.84 5.78 0.76 1.11 9.53 0.51 0.60 0.18 3.67 1.41

Jun-15 0.07 1.80 5.95 0.76 1.12 9.70 0.51 0.61 0.18 3.71 1.51

Jul-15 0.07 1.82 5.79 0.74 1.08 9.51 0.47 0.61 0.18 3.66 1.41

Aug-15 0.06 1.77 5.43 0.73 1.01 9.00 0.47 0.54 0.17 3.35 1.40

Sep-15 0.05 1.87 5.90 0.80 1.05 9.67 0.46 0.58 0.17 3.56 1.64

Oct-15 0.05 1.77 5.77 0.77 0.97 9.32 0.41 0.56 0.17 3.42 1.65

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.9% 2.6% 9.6% 24.6% -3.5% 7.8% 2.5% -7.4% -7.9% 7.6% 14.0%

R/P Ratio3 19.3 13.2 10.1 13.0 17.0 11.7 19.2 15.5 10.4 11.3 7.8


C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent)

Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.

C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel)

Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite.

Source: Oil and Gas Journal.

East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S.

Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util.

2012 1.04 87.9 3.47 94.6 8.14 93.7 0.58 93.6 2.66 89.3 15.89 92.7

2013 1.10 85.1 3.42 90.7 8.22 90.4 0.58 92.7 2.56 84.8 15.88 89.2

2014 1.09 84.2 3.52 92.5 8.38 91.5 0.58 90.5 2.57 87.0 16.14 90.4

3Q 2014 1.13 87.0 3.62 95.0 8.68 94.9 0.61 94.6 2.59 89.0 16.63 93.4

4Q 2014 1.11 86.6 3.48 91.5 8.49 92.6 0.59 91.5 2.59 89.0 16.25 91.3

1Q 2015 1.14 90.9 3.60 93.8 8.54 93.2 0.60 92.6 2.63 91.5 16.51 92.9

2Q 2015 1.15 91.0 3.70 96.2 8.77 94.4 0.60 93.4 2.46 84.0 16.69 92.8

3Q 2015 1.15 90.4 3.65 94.6 8.77 93.5 0.61 94.2 2.67 91.0 16.85 93.2

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 3.1% 1.3%

Oct-14 1.13 87.2 3.28 86.1 8.13 88.7 0.56 86.4 2.54 87.4 15.64 87.7

Nov-14 1.11 87.5 3.47 91.4 8.60 93.8 0.61 94.4 2.58 88.6 16.37 92.0

Dec-14 1.08 85.1 3.69 97.1 8.74 95.2 0.61 93.7 2.64 90.8 16.75 94.2

Jan-15 1.09 85.5 3.43 88.8 8.20 89.1 0.58 90.0 2.51 86.1 15.81 88.4

Feb-15 1.27 102.6 3.84 101.1 9.20 101.1 0.65 100.6 2.92 104.5 17.87 101.7

Mar-15 1.08 85.0 3.52 91.5 8.24 89.6 0.56 87.2 2.46 84.4 15.86 88.7

Apr-15 1.13 89.1 3.70 96.4 8.66 93.5 0.60 92.9 2.43 82.7 16.52 92.0

May-15 1.16 91.1 3.68 95.7 8.75 94.3 0.60 92.6 2.44 83.0 16.61 92.5

Jun-15 1.18 92.7 3.71 96.6 8.91 95.5 0.61 94.7 2.53 86.2 16.94 94.0

Jul-15 1.19 93.6 3.82 99.3 8.89 95.0 0.62 95.4 2.66 90.6 17.18 95.1

Aug-15 1.20 94.0 3.64 94.7 8.83 94.3 0.62 94.6 2.68 91.4 16.96 93.9

Sep-15 1.06 83.5 3.48 89.8 8.58 91.3 0.60 92.5 2.67 91.1 16.39 90.4

Oct-15 1.13 89.0 3.01 77.5 8.39 89.4 0.61 92.9 2.55 87.1 15.69 86.6

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.2% -8.3% 3.2% 8.2% 0.5% 0.3%

% of Total1 7.2% 19.2% 53.5% 3.9% 16.3% 100.0%

NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles

(East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS)

2013 9.20 21.63 12.83 10.25

2014 8.62 16.57 11.76 8.68

2015 12.92 17.94 12.97 18.91

4Q 2014 9.85 13.81 7.28 5.02

1Q 2015 12.42 15.57 14.05 15.73

2Q 2015 17.81 18.79 15.02 21.83

3Q 2015 12.47 24.84 13.79 23.75

4Q 2015 8.98 12.54 9.02 14.33

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -8.8% -9.2% 23.8% 185.6%

Dec-14 10.82 6.61 4.01 2.14

Jan-15 10.14 6.45 10.11 3.71

Feb-15 13.35 17.85 15.52 21.14

Mar-15 13.76 22.41 16.51 22.35

Apr-15 12.22 16.73 14.22 20.81

May-15 19.58 19.79 14.96 28.22

Jun-15 21.63 19.84 15.87 16.46

Jul-15 12.74 23.51 16.50 33.40

Aug-15 14.54 30.64 15.80 22.98

Sep-15 10.13 20.37 9.07 14.88

Oct-15 7.03 19.61 9.08 14.45

Nov-15 9.83 10.00 9.25 13.00

Dec-15 10.08 8.02 8.72 15.54

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.8% 21.3% 117.5% 626.2%


D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day)

D2: Canada Demand by Product (million barrels per day)

Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels)

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

Canada East West

Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance

2012 3.77 1.72 2.06 0.01 0.26 1.05 -0.80 3.51 0.67 2.84

2013 4.04 1.65 2.40 0.01 0.28 0.98 -0.70 3.76 0.66 3.09

2014 4.35 1.56 2.80 0.02 0.27 0.93 -0.67 4.08 0.63 3.45

3Q 2014 4.36 1.53 2.85 0.02 0.28 0.90 -0.63 4.09 0.63 3.46

4Q 2014 4.54 1.58 3.05 0.08 0.31 0.95 -0.64 4.24 0.63 3.61

1Q 2015 3.94 1.69 2.21 -0.04 0.26 1.03 -0.78 3.68 0.65 3.03

2Q 2015 3.51 1.50 1.96 -0.04 0.18 0.90 -0.72 3.33 0.60 2.72

3Q 2015 3.87 1.53 2.44 0.10 0.17 0.89 -0.72 3.70 0.64 3.06

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -11.4% -0.2% -14.6% -39.6% -1.2% -9.5% 1.1%

Oct-14 4.53 1.42 3.23 0.12 0.27 0.85 -0.58 4.26 0.57 3.69

Nov-14 4.52 1.62 3.02 0.12 0.34 0.98 -0.63 4.17 0.64 3.53

Dec-14 4.58 1.68 2.89 0.00 0.31 1.02 -0.71 4.28 0.67 3.61

Jan-15 3.95 1.69 2.23 -0.04 0.28 1.01 -0.73 3.67 0.68 2.99

Feb-15 3.99 1.71 2.23 -0.05 0.26 1.06 -0.80 3.73 0.65 3.08

Mar-15 3.87 1.67 2.17 -0.03 0.23 1.03 -0.80 3.65 0.64 3.00

Apr-15 3.59 1.56 1.99 -0.03 0.21 0.95 -0.73 3.37 0.61 2.76

May-15 3.34 1.48 1.81 -0.04 0.17 0.91 -0.74 3.17 0.58 2.59

Jun-15 3.60 1.47 2.09 -0.04 0.16 0.85 -0.68 3.44 0.62 2.82

Jul-15 3.98 1.52 2.67 0.21 0.17 0.88 -0.71 3.81 0.64 3.17

Aug-15 4.06 1.54 2.56 0.05 0.18 0.89 -0.71 3.88 0.65 3.22

Sep-15 3.57 1.53 2.09 0.05 0.16 0.92 -0.76 3.41 0.61 2.80

Oct-15 3.73 1.36 2.52 0.15 0.11 0.83 -0.72 3.61 0.53 3.09

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -17.8% -4.6% -22.0% -58.8% -2.0% -15.2% -8.3%

% of Total1 100.0% 100.0% 3.0% 61.2% 97.0% 38.8%

Finished Products NGLs Petrol.

Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2

2012 0.74 0.53 0.08 1.81 0.56 2.37

2013 0.77 0.56 0.05 1.84 0.66 2.50

2014 0.78 0.56 0.07 1.86 0.65 2.51

3Q 2014 0.82 0.58 0.07 1.97 0.65 2.61

4Q 2014 0.78 0.57 0.07 1.85 0.65 2.49

1Q 2015 0.74 0.57 0.07 1.79 0.65 2.44

2Q 2015 0.78 0.51 0.04 1.78 0.65 2.42

3Q 2015 0.80 0.55 0.03 1.86 0.65 2.50

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -1.5% -5.8% -52.3% -5.5% 0.0% -4.2%

Oct-14 0.79 0.62 0.06 1.91 0.65 2.56

Nov-14 0.78 0.56 0.06 1.81 0.65 2.46

Dec-14 0.78 0.54 0.09 1.82 0.65 2.47

Jan-15 0.75 0.56 0.05 1.76 0.65 2.40

Feb-15 0.75 0.62 0.08 1.87 0.65 2.52

Mar-15 0.72 0.54 0.07 1.74 0.65 2.39

Apr-15 0.73 0.46 0.06 1.71 0.65 2.36

May-15 0.77 0.52 0.03 1.76 0.65 2.41

Jun-15 0.82 0.55 0.04 1.86 0.65 2.51

Jul-15 0.82 0.52 0.03 1.88 0.65 2.52

Aug-15 0.82 0.52 0.04 1.86 0.65 2.51

Sep-15 0.77 0.60 0.03 1.84 0.65 2.48

Oct-15 0.77 0.56 0.05 1.85 0.65 2.49

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -2.2% -9.4% -95.2% -3.3% 0.0% -2.4%

Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol.

Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total1 Total Total2

2012 18.2 18.7 2.8 56.0 100.0 156.0

2013 16.5 13.8 2.4 52.4 98.9 151.3

2014 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3

3Q 2014 17.9 13.5 1.9 54.1 103.1 157.2

4Q 2014 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3

1Q 2015 17.0 15.7 2.9 54.1 104.0 158.1

2Q 2015 15.1 11.0 1.8 45.7 0.0 45.7

3Q 2015 15.7 10.5 1.8 46.5 0.0 46.5

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -12.2% -22.1% -3.8% -13.9% -100.0% -70.4%

Oct-14 16.8 14.9 2.4 53.4 106.7 160.1

Nov-14 18.3 13.7 2.9 56.1 104.7 160.8

Dec-14 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3

Jan-15 19.6 19.1 2.6 62.1 104.0 166.1

Feb-15 18.2 16.3 2.7 54.6 103.2 157.8

Mar-15 17.0 15.7 2.9 54.1 104.0 158.1

Apr-15 17.0 15.2 2.3 53.3 99.9 153.2

May-15 17.1 14.0 2.8 52.2 98.8 151.0

Jun-15 15.1 11.0 1.8 45.7 102.0 147.7

Jul-15 14.5 11.2 2.1 44.6 109.2 153.8

Aug-15 15.2 14.0 1.9 47.5 109.3 156.8

Sep-15 15.7 10.5 1.8 46.5 103.9 150.4

Oct-15 14.9 12.3 2.5 45.5 109.3 154.8

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -11.2% -17.3% 5.7% -14.8% 2.4% -3.3%


D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day)

Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada’s Energy Statistics Handbook.

D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day)

Notes: 1. Includes all non-OPEC production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada’s

Energy Statistics Handbook.

Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type

Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs

2012 2.47 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.20 3.25 0.86 0.90 0.45 0.89 0.14

2013 2.63 0.47 0.04 0.01 0.23 3.46 0.91 0.94 0.45 0.98 0.15

2014 2.91 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.76 0.94 0.95 0.46 1.21 0.22

3Q 2014 2.92 0.50 0.05 0.01 0.19 3.72 0.89 0.94 0.46 1.23 0.23

4Q 2014 3.04 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.90 0.95 1.00 0.46 1.28 0.27

1Q 2015 3.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 4.02 0.94 1.09 0.45 1.32 0.21

2Q 2015 2.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 3.55 0.82 0.81 0.43 1.28 0.21

3Q 2015 3.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 3.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.7% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -25.5% 4.7% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0%

Oct-14 3.06 0.52 0.05 0.01 0.18 3.89 0.91 0.97 0.47 1.33 0.26

Nov-14 2.98 0.52 0.05 0.01 0.25 3.87 0.98 1.04 0.46 1.19 0.26

Dec-14 3.07 0.53 0.06 0.01 0.22 3.94 0.96 0.99 0.46 1.30 0.28

Jan-15 3.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.24 4.05 0.97 1.10 0.46 1.31 0.20

Feb-15 3.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 4.07 0.95 1.11 0.45 1.34 0.22

Mar-15 3.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 3.94 0.90 1.07 0.44 1.32 0.22

Apr-15 2.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 3.64 0.87 0.81 0.43 1.31 0.22

May-15 2.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 3.38 0.81 0.70 0.43 1.24 0.21

Jun-15 2.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 3.63 0.78 0.93 0.42 1.30 0.21

Jul-15 3.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 3.99 0.79 1.09 0.43 1.49 0.21

Aug-15 3.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 4.09 0.80 1.16 0.44 1.50 0.21

Sep-15 2.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 3.61 0.78 0.81 0.43 1.38 0.23

Oct-15 3.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 3.77 0.75 0.87 0.43 1.51 0.23

Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.8% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -47.7% -3.0% -17.3% -9.9% -8.4% 13.5% -12.1%

Non-OPEC OPEC Imports

Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total2 P. Gulf Total

2012 22 16 25 50 372 142 52 67 6 350 150 723

2013 24 15 36 55 466 71 47 16 2 177 57 643

2014 17 164 3 12 453 38 27 0 1 90 23 543

3Q 2014 31 202 0 11 479 28 46 0 0 74 0 554

4Q 2014 21 118 2 19 451 43 21 0 0 64 0 515

1Q 2015 0 303 0 7 485 61 30 0 0 91 0 576

2Q 2015 0 344 15 11 592 12 21 0 0 33 0 625

3Q 2015 0 191 0 3 461 74 42 0 0 116 0 577

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -100.0% -5.1% -74.8% -3.8% 163.2% -10.2% 55.3% 4.2%

Oct-14 31 0 0 23 393 58 0 0 0 58 0 452

Nov-14 19 353 7 0 454 54 64 0 0 117 0 572

Dec-14 12 0 0 34 505 18 0 0 0 18 0 523

Jan-15 0 300 0 20 495 83 0 0 0 83 0 577

Feb-15 0 286 0 0 439 33 91 0 0 125 0 564

Mar-15 0 322 0 0 522 67 0 0 0 67 0 588

Apr-15 0 287 0 0 643 0 0 0 0 0 0 643

May-15 0 366 44 14 573 0 29 0 0 29 0 602

Jun-15 0 378 0 21 561 36 33 0 0 70 0 631

Jul-15 0 321 0 0 481 66 61 0 0 127 0 608

Aug-15 0 254 0 0 469 87 35 0 0 122 0 590

Sep-15 0 0 0 9 434 69 29 0 0 98 0 532

Oct-15 0 332 0 10 388 33 30 0 0 63 0 451

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -100.0% 0.0% 0.0% -55.2% -1.4% -43.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% -0.2%

% of Total3 0.0% 73.6% 0.0% 2.3% 86.0% 7.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.0% 100.0%


E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.

E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs)

Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc.


N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total1

2013 2,221 117 27 2,365 219 368 586 288 195 483 3,435

2014 2,323 122 26 2,472 228 371 598 318 185 503 3,573

2015 1,222 96 17 1,336 202 296 498 348 156 503 2,337

4Q 2014 2,395 124 25 2,544 229 374 603 314 172 486 3,632

1Q 2015 1,755 109 21 1,886 214 357 571 322 172 494 2,950

2Q 2015 1,068 96 17 1,181 203 326 529 313 155 468 2,177

3Q 2015 1,098 91 16 1,205 201 193 394 436 153 589 2,187

4Q 2015 967 90 15 1,072 191 307 498 320 143 463 2,033

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -59.6% -27.5% -38.7% -57.8% -16.6% -17.9% -17.4% 2.1% -17.1% -4.7% -44.0%

Dec-14 2,329 123 24 2,476 231 377 608 320 166 486 3,570

Jan-15 2,120 107 20 2,247 212 361 573 324 165 489 3,309

Feb-15 1,774 108 22 1,904 218 358 576 323 183 506 2,986

Mar-15 1,372 112 22 1,506 211 352 563 319 167 486 2,555

Apr-15 1,133 97 20 1,250 208 337 545 319 154 473 2,268

May-15 1,029 96 15 1,140 202 322 524 308 155 463 2,127

Jun-15 1,041 95 16 1,152 199 318 517 312 155 467 2,136

Jul-15 1,094 90 16 1,200 196 320 516 300 149 449 2,165

Aug-15 1,130 91 15 1,236 205 325 530 304 156 460 2,226

Sep-15 1,070 92 16 1,178 202 -67 135 703 155 858 2,171

Oct-15 1,013 90 16 1,119 197 311 508 311 148 459 2,086

Nov-15 976 87 14 1,077 194 310 504 325 141 466 2,047

Dec-15 913 92 16 1,021 182 299 481 325 139 464 1,966

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -60.8% -25.2% -33.3% -58.8% -21.2% -20.7% -20.9% 1.6% -16.3% -4.5% -44.9%

% of Total2 46.4% 4.7% 0.8% 51.9% 9.3% 15.2% 24.5% 16.5% 7.1% 23.6% 100.0%

United States Canada North America1

East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total

2013 89 420 1,049 153 50 1,761 1,705 56 351 1,728 384 2,112

2014 86 453 1,114 156 53 1,861 1,804 57 376 1,905 332 2,238

2015 64 248 395 216 65 977 941 35 193 944 226 1,170

4Q 2014 89 467 1,135 166 53 1,911 1,854 56 407 1,976 341 2,317

1Q 2015 74 358 814 107 27 1,380 1,330 49 309 1,400 289 1,688

2Q 2015 69 233 516 69 24 909 878 31 100 785 223 1,008

3Q 2015 58 214 203 310 97 866 833 32 191 849 208 1,056

4Q 2015 54 187 45 378 111 754 724 29 174 741 187 928

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -39.4% -59.9% -96.1% 127.9% 109.7% -60.6% -60.9% -47.7% -57.2% -62.5% -45.3% -60.0%

Dec-14 87 468 1,118 159 51 1,882 1,824 59 375 1,915 342 2,257

Jan-15 80 437 992 140 29 1,683 1,629 53 368 1,731 320 2,051

Feb-15 72 348 802 102 26 1,348 1,296 52 363 1,415 296 1,711

Mar-15 69 288 649 78 27 1,109 1,066 43 195 1,054 250 1,304

Apr-15 72 252 557 71 27 976 943 33 90 844 222 1,066

May-15 68 226 505 69 23 889 857 32 80 746 223 969

Jun-15 68 220 486 67 22 861 833 28 129 766 224 989

Jul-15 63 213 501 67 22 866 835 31 183 834 216 1,049

Aug-15 56 221 56 443 133 883 849 34 206 880 209 1,089

Sep-15 54 209 52 421 135 848 816 32 183 833 198 1,031

Oct-15 48 194 50 402 117 791 758 33 184 782 193 975

Nov-15 58 194 47 378 107 760 729 31 178 744 194 938

Dec-15 56 174 37 355 108 711 686 24 160 697 174 871

Yr-on-Yr Chg. -35.8% -62.8% -96.7% 123.3% 112.8% -62.2% -62.4% -58.6% -57.3% -63.6% -49.2% -61.4%

% of Total3 6.4% 20.0% 4.2% 40.8% 12.4% 81.6% 78.8% 2.8% 18.4% 80.0% 20.0% 100.0%


Geographical Specifications

1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republ ic,

Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak

Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran,

Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-Persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is

comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia,

Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-OECD

Oceania); and non-Asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non-

OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) – New England

(Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island,

Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York,

Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida,

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid

-West (PADD II) – Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South

Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) – Alabama,

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West

(PADD IV) – Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West

(PADD V) – Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon,

Washington.

3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the

Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova

Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British

Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest

Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon).

Additional Notes

1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs),

whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates.

Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as

NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined

products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo

by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified

quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3.

Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the

loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the

responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is

priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the

transportation and insurance to that point. A “Delivered” transaction is

similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF

transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is

greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5.

Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock

changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding.

Crude Stream

Producing

Country or

Region

API

Gravity

(@60° F)

Sulfur

Content

(%)

BBLs/Metric

Tonne

Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910

Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773

WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640

GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640

Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640

Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640

Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640

ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640

Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551

Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506

Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462

Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373

Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373

Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373

Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373

WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328

Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284

Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284

Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239

Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194

Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105

Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061

ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061

Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971

Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971

Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838

Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436

Crude Oil Qualities

For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at [email protected]. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 – 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6

November December 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Crude...

Documents

Transcript of November December 2015 CERI Commodity Report — Crude...