November 2013 · 2010 VQF Financial Services Standards Association This document is for information...

19
2010 VQF Financial Services Standards Association This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer of shares in RBR European Long Short Funds. It is the responsibility of any person in possession of this document to inform themselves of all applicable laws and regulations of the countries of their nationalities, residence, ordinary residence or domicile. Further information is set out on the last page of this document. November 2013

Transcript of November 2013 · 2010 VQF Financial Services Standards Association This document is for information...

2010 VQF Financial Services

Standards Association

This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer of shares in RBR European Long Short Funds. It is the responsibility of any person in possession of this document to inform themselves of all applicable laws and regulations of the countries of their nationalities, residence, ordinary residence or domicile. Further information is set out on the last page of this document.

November 2013

Agenda

2

• Introduction

• Case Studies

• Performance

• Conclusion

1

2

3

4

“A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.” Burton Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street

Source: A Case for Index Fund Portfolios, RICHARD FERRI & ALEX BENKE

Most fund managers cannot beat the market

3

How do we achieve outperformance? 40 years of combined investment

experience

More than 400 company meetings every year

Thorough research and analysis Acting when price and value diverge

4

Agenda

5

• Introduction

• Case Studies

• Performance

• Conclusion

1

2

3

4

Jazztel – Transformation Strengthens Competitive Position

Business description

• Jazztel PLC is a telecom operator in Spain with ~12% market share in ADSL

• Focus on retail broadband and mobile services

• 4,500 km of fiber network in Spain

• Retail makes up 80% of sales and wholesale 20%

6

Long

Main financials and multiples

Financials (EUR) 12/13E 12/15E

Revenue (M) 1,034 1,267

EBITDA (M) 181 279

EPS Adjusted 0.24 0.38

Ratio Analysis

Price Earnings 32.4x 20.4x

EV to EBITDA 11.8x 7.7x

Investment Rationale

• Best price-quality product in Spain

• Integrated strategy through bundled offers

• Substantial growth from FTTH deployment

• Upside: +50% based on DCF

7

Share Price Development

Long

50

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No

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Ap

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Price versus Peers & Benchmark (Normalized))

JAZ SM Equity Peer Index IBEX

Jazztel – Transformation Strengthens Competitive Position

Mediaset – Contrarian Play with Deep Value

8

Long

Business description

• Mediaset SpA operates television broadcasting with ~35% market share in Italy and ~45% market share in Spain

• Founded in the 1970s by former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi

• The main channels are Canale 5, Italia 1, Retequattro and Telecinco

Main financials and multiples

Financials (EUR) 12/13E 12/15E

Revenue (M) 3,441 3,756

EBITDA (M) 809 1,083

EPS Adjusted 0.03 0.19

Ratio Analysis

Price Earnings 118.9x 18.6x

EV to EBITDA 7.9x 5.9x

Mediaset – Contrarian Play with Deep Value

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Long

Investment Rationale

• The shares trade with “Berlusconi stigma” on top of a “PIIGS discount”

• Mediaset is set to swing from losses into net profits in 2013

• The market is undervaluing the free cash flow: there is optionality in the Pay-TV business

• Upside: +30% based on 9% 2014 FCF yield

Share Price Development

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40

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100

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No

v-10

Dec

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Jan-

11

Feb

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Mar

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Ap

r-1

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Price versus Peers & Benchmark (Normalized))

MS IM Equity Peer Index FTSEMIB

Swatch – Growth Acceleration Ahead

10

Long

Business description

• Swatch Group AG manufactures watches and components

• Leading brands portfolio including Breguet, Omega, Longines, Rado, Tissot, Certina and Swatch

• 75% of sales are from watches and jewelry and 25% from the production of movements

• Asia represents 53% of sales, Europe 37% and Americas 8%

Main financials and multiples

Financials (CHF) 12/13E 12/15E

Revenue (M) 8,663 10,335

EBITDA (M) 2,435 3,064

EPS Adjusted 31.74 39.83

Ratio Analysis

Price Earnings 18.8x 15.0x

EV to EBITDA 12.4x 9.9x

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Long

Swatch – Growth Acceleration Ahead

Investment Rationale

• Short-term headwinds from slowdown in China and strong CHF offer an attractive entry opportunity

• The growth story remains intact as most of Swatch’s brands outperform rivals

• Dominates the market of mechanical watches of < CHF 5,000

• Upside: +35% based on 20x cash PER 2015

Share Price Development

70

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No

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Dec

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Mar

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Ap

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Price versus Peers & Benchmark (Normalized))

UHR VX Equity Peer Index SMI

ThyssenKrupp – Restructuring Unlocks Value

12

Long

Business description

• ThyssenKrupp AG is Germany’s largest steel maker and manufacturer of industrial components

• Conglomerate with businesses in steel, car parts, elevators, escalators, machine tools and real estate

• New management has “carte blanche”

Main financials and multiples

Financials (EUR) 9/13E 9/15E

Revenue (M) 37,076 39,838

EBITDA (M) 1,858 2,862

EPS Adjusted -0.29 1.73

Ratio Analysis

Price Earnings neg 11.2x

EV to EBITDA 7.6x 4.9x

ThyssenKrupp – Restructuring Unlocks Value

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Long

Investment Rationale

• Top management changes serve as a catalyst

• Recently negotiated a waiver from banks for its covenants

• Planned disposals will make the company asset light

• Upside: +35% based on sum-of-the-parts valuation

Share Price Development

40

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No

v-10

Dec

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Feb

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Mar

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Ap

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Ap

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May

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Price versus Peers & Benchmark (Normalized))

TKA GY Equity Peer Index DAX

Agenda

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• Introduction

• Case Studies

• Performance

• Conclusion

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RBR European L/S MSCI Europe ex-UK vs. MSCI Europe ex-UK

Actual Return return outperformance

2004 38.2% 10.6% 27.7%

2005 41.9% 24.6% 17.3%

2006 39.3% 18.5% 20.8%

2007 1.3% 3.0% -1.7%

2008 -27.0% -44.4% 17.3%

2009 75.5% 24.6% 50.9%

2010 25.8% 5.9% 19.9%

2011 -14.9% -14.9% 0.0%

2012 35.3% 15.8% 19.5%

2013 31.2% 18.9% 12.4%Performance* 573.7% 44.6% 529.0%

p.a. 21.4% 3.8% 20.6%

Period

LONG

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The long book has outperformed MSCI Europe by 21% p.a.

RBR European Long Short (LUX): Long Book Outperformance Analysis vs Benchmark (per Oct 31 2013)

Name Tot Ret 5Y Ann

RBR EUROPEAN LONG SHORT-CHF 23.0

RBR EUROPEAN LONG SHRT-P CHF 18.0

SW MITCHELL SMALL CAP EURO-A 16.6

SATOR PUBLIC EQUITY VALUE-A 14.9

ZADIG FUND-A€ 14.2

OEI MAC INC-USD 13.7

ENNISMORE EUROPEAN SML CO-£ 13.1

ANTARES EUROPEAN FUND LTD-€ 12.9

EURONOVA SMALLER COM-C1 EUR 12.9

EV SMALLER COMPANIES FUND 12.8

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RBR is a leader in long term performance (5Yr)

SNAPSHOT OF TOP 10 FUNDS: 5 YEAR ANNUALIZED RETURN

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RBR is a leader in long term performance (3Yr)

Agenda

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• Introduction

• Case Studies

• Performance

• Conclusion

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Conclusion

“The more I practice, the luckier I get.”

Gary Player