November 2013 · 2010 VQF Financial Services Standards Association This document is for information...
Transcript of November 2013 · 2010 VQF Financial Services Standards Association This document is for information...
2010 VQF Financial Services
Standards Association
This document is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer of shares in RBR European Long Short Funds. It is the responsibility of any person in possession of this document to inform themselves of all applicable laws and regulations of the countries of their nationalities, residence, ordinary residence or domicile. Further information is set out on the last page of this document.
November 2013
“A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.” Burton Malkiel, A Random Walk Down Wall Street
Source: A Case for Index Fund Portfolios, RICHARD FERRI & ALEX BENKE
Most fund managers cannot beat the market
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How do we achieve outperformance? 40 years of combined investment
experience
More than 400 company meetings every year
Thorough research and analysis Acting when price and value diverge
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Jazztel – Transformation Strengthens Competitive Position
Business description
• Jazztel PLC is a telecom operator in Spain with ~12% market share in ADSL
• Focus on retail broadband and mobile services
• 4,500 km of fiber network in Spain
• Retail makes up 80% of sales and wholesale 20%
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Long
Main financials and multiples
Financials (EUR) 12/13E 12/15E
Revenue (M) 1,034 1,267
EBITDA (M) 181 279
EPS Adjusted 0.24 0.38
Ratio Analysis
Price Earnings 32.4x 20.4x
EV to EBITDA 11.8x 7.7x
Investment Rationale
• Best price-quality product in Spain
• Integrated strategy through bundled offers
• Substantial growth from FTTH deployment
• Upside: +50% based on DCF
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Share Price Development
Long
50
100
150
200
250
No
v-10
Dec
-10
Jan
-11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-1
1
May
-11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-11
Dec
-11
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Mar
-12
Ap
r-1
2
May
-12
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
No
v-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Ap
r-1
3
May
-13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Price versus Peers & Benchmark (Normalized))
JAZ SM Equity Peer Index IBEX
Jazztel – Transformation Strengthens Competitive Position
Mediaset – Contrarian Play with Deep Value
8
Long
Business description
• Mediaset SpA operates television broadcasting with ~35% market share in Italy and ~45% market share in Spain
• Founded in the 1970s by former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi
• The main channels are Canale 5, Italia 1, Retequattro and Telecinco
Main financials and multiples
Financials (EUR) 12/13E 12/15E
Revenue (M) 3,441 3,756
EBITDA (M) 809 1,083
EPS Adjusted 0.03 0.19
Ratio Analysis
Price Earnings 118.9x 18.6x
EV to EBITDA 7.9x 5.9x
Mediaset – Contrarian Play with Deep Value
9
Long
Investment Rationale
• The shares trade with “Berlusconi stigma” on top of a “PIIGS discount”
• Mediaset is set to swing from losses into net profits in 2013
• The market is undervaluing the free cash flow: there is optionality in the Pay-TV business
• Upside: +30% based on 9% 2014 FCF yield
Share Price Development
20
40
60
80
100
120
No
v-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-1
1
May
-11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
-11
No
v-11
Dec
-11
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Mar
-12
Ap
r-1
2
May
-12
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
No
v-12
Dec
-12
Jan
-13
Feb
-13
Mar
-13
Ap
r-1
3
May
-13
Jun
-13
Jul-
13
Aug
-13
Sep
-13
Oct
-13
Price versus Peers & Benchmark (Normalized))
MS IM Equity Peer Index FTSEMIB
Swatch – Growth Acceleration Ahead
10
Long
Business description
• Swatch Group AG manufactures watches and components
• Leading brands portfolio including Breguet, Omega, Longines, Rado, Tissot, Certina and Swatch
• 75% of sales are from watches and jewelry and 25% from the production of movements
• Asia represents 53% of sales, Europe 37% and Americas 8%
Main financials and multiples
Financials (CHF) 12/13E 12/15E
Revenue (M) 8,663 10,335
EBITDA (M) 2,435 3,064
EPS Adjusted 31.74 39.83
Ratio Analysis
Price Earnings 18.8x 15.0x
EV to EBITDA 12.4x 9.9x
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Long
Swatch – Growth Acceleration Ahead
Investment Rationale
• Short-term headwinds from slowdown in China and strong CHF offer an attractive entry opportunity
• The growth story remains intact as most of Swatch’s brands outperform rivals
• Dominates the market of mechanical watches of < CHF 5,000
• Upside: +35% based on 20x cash PER 2015
Share Price Development
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
No
v-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb
-11
Mar
-11
Ap
r-1
1
May
-11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Aug
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Sep
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Oct
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No
v-11
Dec
-11
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Mar
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Ap
r-1
2
May
-12
Jun
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Jul-
12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
No
v-12
Dec
-12
Jan
-13
Feb
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Mar
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Ap
r-1
3
May
-13
Jun
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Jul-
13
Aug
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Sep
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Oct
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Price versus Peers & Benchmark (Normalized))
UHR VX Equity Peer Index SMI
ThyssenKrupp – Restructuring Unlocks Value
12
Long
Business description
• ThyssenKrupp AG is Germany’s largest steel maker and manufacturer of industrial components
• Conglomerate with businesses in steel, car parts, elevators, escalators, machine tools and real estate
• New management has “carte blanche”
Main financials and multiples
Financials (EUR) 9/13E 9/15E
Revenue (M) 37,076 39,838
EBITDA (M) 1,858 2,862
EPS Adjusted -0.29 1.73
Ratio Analysis
Price Earnings neg 11.2x
EV to EBITDA 7.6x 4.9x
ThyssenKrupp – Restructuring Unlocks Value
13
Long
Investment Rationale
• Top management changes serve as a catalyst
• Recently negotiated a waiver from banks for its covenants
• Planned disposals will make the company asset light
• Upside: +35% based on sum-of-the-parts valuation
Share Price Development
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
No
v-10
Dec
-10
Jan-
11
Feb
-11
Mar
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Ap
r-1
1
May
-11
Jun
-11
Jul-
11
Aug
-11
Sep
-11
Oct
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No
v-11
Dec
-11
Jan
-12
Feb
-12
Mar
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Ap
r-1
2
May
-12
Jun
-12
Jul-
12
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
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No
v-12
Dec
-12
Jan
-13
Feb
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Mar
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Ap
r-1
3
May
-13
Jun
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Jul-
13
Aug
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Sep
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Oct
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Price versus Peers & Benchmark (Normalized))
TKA GY Equity Peer Index DAX
RBR European L/S MSCI Europe ex-UK vs. MSCI Europe ex-UK
Actual Return return outperformance
2004 38.2% 10.6% 27.7%
2005 41.9% 24.6% 17.3%
2006 39.3% 18.5% 20.8%
2007 1.3% 3.0% -1.7%
2008 -27.0% -44.4% 17.3%
2009 75.5% 24.6% 50.9%
2010 25.8% 5.9% 19.9%
2011 -14.9% -14.9% 0.0%
2012 35.3% 15.8% 19.5%
2013 31.2% 18.9% 12.4%Performance* 573.7% 44.6% 529.0%
p.a. 21.4% 3.8% 20.6%
Period
LONG
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The long book has outperformed MSCI Europe by 21% p.a.
RBR European Long Short (LUX): Long Book Outperformance Analysis vs Benchmark (per Oct 31 2013)
Name Tot Ret 5Y Ann
RBR EUROPEAN LONG SHORT-CHF 23.0
RBR EUROPEAN LONG SHRT-P CHF 18.0
SW MITCHELL SMALL CAP EURO-A 16.6
SATOR PUBLIC EQUITY VALUE-A 14.9
ZADIG FUND-A€ 14.2
OEI MAC INC-USD 13.7
ENNISMORE EUROPEAN SML CO-£ 13.1
ANTARES EUROPEAN FUND LTD-€ 12.9
EURONOVA SMALLER COM-C1 EUR 12.9
EV SMALLER COMPANIES FUND 12.8
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RBR is a leader in long term performance (5Yr)
SNAPSHOT OF TOP 10 FUNDS: 5 YEAR ANNUALIZED RETURN