November 2009 Colorado's Political Temperature Results

8/14/2019 November 2009 Colorado's Political Temperature Results

1/8

Buck Solidifies Senate Race Lead, Norton Still Seen asStrongest

Penry's Huge Advantage in Guv's Primary Reduced by Withdrawal Announcement

Below are the candidate results from the November 2009 online survey of Colorados political temperature, including 281 participants (September & July %in parentheses, respectively):

If the GOP primary for US Senate were held today, _____ is the candidate I would vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)Ken Buck (128) 45.6% (24.7%, 11.6%)

Jane Norton (71) 25.3% (22.8%, N/A) Tom Wiens (26) 9.3% (2.5%, 2.8%)Cleve Tidwell (12) 4.3% (7.0%, 6.9%)Other / None of the Above (44) 15.7% (13.7%, 22.3%)

**One-time candidates Ryan Frazier and Luke Korkowski were removed from thissurvey

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for USSenate in the general election in November 2010 is _____.

Jane Norton (126) ... 44.8% (29.1% , N/A)Ken Buck (93) 33.1% (21.9%, 12.7%)

Tom Wiens (19) 6.8% (3.6%, 2.3%)Cleve Tidwell (7) 2.5% (6.3%, 5.2%)Other / None of the Above (36) 12.8% (13.9%, 21.8%)**One-time candidates Ryan Frazier and Luke Korkowski were removed from this

survey

If the GOP primary for Governor were held today, _____ is the candidate I would vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)

Josh Penry (129) 45.9% (47.5%, 36.2%)Scott McInnis (69) 24.6% (30.2%, 35.8%)Dan Maes (40) 14.2% (8.4%, 9.5%)Other / None of the Above (43) 15.3% (13.9%, 18.4%)Before Penry's Withdrawal Announcement After Penry's Withdrawal

Announcement PENRY (117) ... 53.4% MCINNIS (22) ...

36.1%MCINNIS (47) ... 21.5% MAES (12) ... 19.7%MAES (28) ... 12.6% PENRY (12) ... 19.7%

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for Governor in the general election in November 2010 is _____.Scott McInnis (113) 40.2% (40.5%, 43.6% )

Josh Penry (106) 37.7% ( 43.0% , 33.3%)Dan Maes (19) 6.8% (4.9%, 7.4%)


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Other / None of the Above (43) 15.3% (11.6%, 15.7%)Before Penry's Withdrawal Announcement After Penry's Withdrawal

Announcement PENRY (97) ... 44.3% MCINNIS (32) ...51.6%MCINNIS (81) ... 37.0% PENRY (9) ... 14.5%

MAES (16) ... 7.3% MAES (3) ... 4.8%


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Frazier, Gardner Running Away with Support in 7 th , 4 th

CDRomanoff Slips, Still Seen as Stronger than Bennet; Ament's Treasurer

Lead Grows

If the GOP primary for the 7th Congressional District were held today, _____ is thecandidate I would vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)Ryan Frazier (128) ... 45.6%Brian T. Campbell (43) ... 15.3%

Jimmy Lakey (16) ... 5.7%Other / None of the Above (94) ... 33.5%

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for the 7thCongressional District in the general election in November 2010 is _____.Ryan Frazier (143) ... 50.9%Brian T. Campbell (29) ... 10.3%

Jimmy Lakey (12) ... 4.3%Other / None of the Above (97) ... 34.5%

If the GOP primary for CD 4 were held today, _____ is the candidate I would votefor to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)Cory Gardner (124) 44.1% (42.9%, 34.0%)

Tom Lucero (68) 24.2% (22.8%, 20.8%)Diggs Brown (16) 5.7% (3.0%, 5.5%)Other / None of the Above (73) 26.0% (31.4%, 39.7%)

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) GOP candidate for the 4thCongressional District in the general election in November 2010 is _____.Cory Gardner (138) 49.1%

Tom Lucero (59) 21.0%Diggs Brown (9) 3.2%Other / None of the Above (75) 26.7%

Right now, I believe the strongest (most likely to win) Democratic candidate for US Senate in the general election in November 2010 is _____.Andrew Romanoff (161) ... 57.9% (60.4%)Michael Bennet (117) ... 42.1% (39.6%)

If the Democratic primary for US Senate were held today, _____ is the candidate I

would vote for to best represent the Democratic Party. (select one)Andrew Romanoff (188) ... 66.9% (70.4%)Michael Bennet (93) ... 33.1% (29.6%)

If the GOP primary for Treasurer were held today, _____ is the candidate I would vote for to best represent the Republican Party. (select one)

J.J. Ament (116) 41.3% (32.3% , 19.1%)Walker Stapleton (47) 16.7% (19.4%, 19.4% )Muhammad Ali Hasan (11) 3.9% (4.6%, 6.9%)


4/8

Other / None of the Above (107) 38.1% (43.7%, 54.6%)


5/8

Bloggers Take Colorados Political TemperatureNovember 2009 Survey

Results and Summary AnalysisMichael Sandoval, Slapstick Politics (http://slapstickpolitics.blogspot.com), [email protected]

Ben DeGrow, Mount Virtus (http://bendegrow.com), [email protected] assistance from Mary Ila Macfarlane

Content OverviewOpen online from Thursday, November 5, 8:00 AM MST, to Friday, November 13, 5:00 PMMST, the survey gauged opinion on prominent policy issues, philosophy, and politicaldynamics; as well as candidate preference and assessment questions for five 2010Colorado Republican primary races and one Democratic primary race.

Participant Demographics The survey was not intended to measure a representative cross-section of Coloradovoters and thus has no direct predictive power on upcoming primary elections. It was

however intended primarily for Right-leaning Colorado political activists to express theirbeliefs and preferences. The survey was controlled to prevent multiple responses from asingle IP address.

The survey included 281 participants, self-identified as follows (results may not add up to100.0%, due to rounding), not all of whom completed the entire survey:Registered Colorado Voters: Yes (98.2%), No (1.4%)Political Party: Republican (87.5%); Unaffiliated (5.7%); Libertarian (5.0%); Democrat(1.4%); Other (0.4%).Gender: Male (67.9%); Female (32.1%).Age: 18-29 (11.8%); 30-39 (14.3%); 40-49 (22.1%); 50-59 (26.4%); 60-69 (18.2%); 70 orolder (7.1%).

Region: The 7 county Denver Metro Area (55.0%); The Front Range/I-25 corridor otherthan the Denver Metro Area (32.5%); Western Slope (7.1%); Eastern Plains (4.3%); I-70/Ski Country (1.1%).Congressional District: 1 st (9.6%); 2 nd (15.7%); 3 rd (7.9%); 4 th (20.4%); 5 th (10.0%); 6 th

(18.6%); 7 th (13.9%).Race: Non-Hispanic White (84.6%); Other/Multiple Race (9.6%); Hispanic or Latino(3.9%); African American (1.1%); Asian American (0.7%).Marital Status: Married (74.3%); SingleNever Married (15.4%); Divorced (7.9%);Widowed (2.5%).Highest Education: Less than high school (0.7%); High school/GED (2.9%); Somecollege (16.4%); 2-year college (7.1%); 4-year college (35.7%); Some graduate school(8.9%); Masters degree (21.1%); Doctoral degree (7.1%).

Political Affiliation (1=Liberal; 7=Conservative): Conservative (42.1%); StrongConservative (39.3%); Moderate Conservative (14.6%); Centrist (3.2%); Moderate Liberal(0.4%); Liberal (0.4%).

Total Conservative: 96.0% Total Liberal: 0.8%


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7/8

Opinion QuestionsParticipants were asked to rate their relative agreement with a series of 40 statements onprominent policy issues, philosophy, and political dynamics, based on a 7-point Likert scale(1 = Strongly disagree; 2 = Disagree; 3 = Somewhat Disagree; 4 = Neither Agree nor Disagree;5 = Somewhat agree; 6 = Agree; 7 = Strongly agree).Bolded statements occupy the same ranking as the September survey.Italicized statements represent the first time in the top 10 since the survey began in July.

The top 3 answers remain unchanged from September 2009, and 8 of the top 10 remainfrom the previous go-around. The 10 statements that received the strongestagreement on the 7-point scale (with rating from September 2009 survey inparentheses):

1. The so-called 'public option' in the House health care reform bill will lead to asingle payer government health care takeover.

6.37 (6.18)2. I would describe myself, on balance, as a fiscal or free marketconservative, focusing more on issues of taxation, government spending, orthe economy. 6.22 (6.09)3. Bill Ritter's management of the state has contributed to worsening ourcurrent economic situation.

6.16 (6.08)4. It is not about "left vs. right" but about the power of government vs. the rights of theindividual. 6.02 (n/a)5. President Barack Obamas policies will hurt Democrats in Colorado in the 2010midterm election. ( Prev: 6 )

5.96 (5.84)6. I am concerned about Michael Bennet's indecision on the union card check bill andother important pieces of legislation. ( Prev: 4)

5.92 (6.03)7. The TEA Parties are an effective method of voicing opinions on the size of government and taxation.

5.89 (5.81)8. Candidates, regardless of party, should be prepared to face a primary challenge. ( Prev:5 )5.87 (5.85)9. Voter-approved retention of Colorado Supreme Court justices is a necessary check on

judicial overreach. 5.82 (n/a)

10. Colorado's Supreme Court is, on balance, too partisan. ( Prev: 11) 5.72 (5.51)

Representing the same 10 statements from the September 2009 survey (with 6occupying the exact same position), the 10 statements that received the strongestdisagreement on the 7-point scale:

1. A Cap and Trade bill is, on balance, a good idea. 1.36 (1.47)2. My overall opinion of Democrats is positive. ( Prev: 3 )1.52 (1.67)3. The Stimulus Bill has helped to grow the economy. ( Prev: 2 )1.58 (1.65)


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4. Michael Bennet has shown decisive leadership as Colorado's junior U.S.Senator. 1.80 (1.75)5. Bill Ritter and Colorado Democrats needed to pass the FASTER car taxincrease to help fix the state budget crisis.

1.82 (1.82)6. Incumbents should not be challenged by primary opponents.

2.02 (2.23)

7. Regardless of whom the GOP nominates, Bill Ritter will win reelection asColorados governor in 2010.

2.09 (2.23)8. Regardless of whom the GOP nominates, Michael Bennet, appointed by BillRitter to replace Ken Salazar, will win election for US Senate in 2010.

2.17 (2.24)9. It is the job of national organizations like the National Republican Senatorial Committeeto endorse candidates early in the primaries. ( Prev: 10 )

2.32 (2.64)10. Regardless of whom the GOP nominates, Betsy Markey will win reelection to CD 4 in2010. ( Prev: 9 )2.48 (2.53)

November 2009 Colorado's Political Temperature Results

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