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cc16_021

STAFF REPORT

MEETING

DATE: February 2, 2016

TO: City Council

FROM: Robert Brown, Community Development Director

PRESENTER: Robert Brown

SUBJECT: COMMENT TO ABAG ON DRAFT PLAN BAY AREA 2040 JOBS AND

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH RANGES

REQUEST

Consider providing direction to staff for preparation of a response letter to ABAG on the draft

2040 jobs and households projections for preparation of Plan Bay Area 2040.

RECOMMENDATION

Provide direction to staff.

DISCUSSION

In 2008 the State adopted SB 375, which requires that Regional Transportation Plans, which

allocate funding for transportation projects, include a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS)

that would coordinate regional land use and transportation planning with a goal of reducing

greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector by 7% by 2020 and 15% by 2035.

In July 2013, the Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC) and ABAG adopted Plan Bay

Area (PBA) 2013 as the Bay Area’s first Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities

Strategy. The major policy intent of PBA 2013 was to incentivize cities to self-designate Priority

Development Areas (PDAs) for higher-intensity infill development near major transit lines. In

exchange for planning for higher residential densities or commercial intensities, these jurisdictions

would receive the lion share of discretionary transportation funding.

State law requires that the RTP/SCS must be updated every four years. In spring 2015, MTC and

ABAG initiated a limited update of Plan Bay Area, called PBA 2040. This update will entail

updated growth projections both to reflect the uptick in the economy and to better align ABAG’s

forecasts with those of the Department of Finance, which was a point of contention in the previous

PBA 2013.

As with most long-range planning exercises, PBA 2040 will entail the preparation of alternative

regional growth scenarios which will either focus or disperse growth to various locales in the Bay

Area, and will test various types and locations of transportation improvements to analyze the

different impacts of these alternative visions of growth to the year 2040.

922 Machin Avenue Novato, CA 94945

415/ 899-8900 FAX 415/ 899-8213

www.novato.org

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Based on input from a series of sub-regional workshops in spring 2015, ABAG created three

alternative growth scenarios for analysis in PBA 2040, which they describe as follows:

Scenario 1: “Targets future population and employment growth to the downtowns of every

city in the Bay Area to foster a region of moderately-sized, integrated town centers. As in the

other scenarios, most growth will be in locally-identified PDAs, but this scenarios offers the

most dispersed growth pattern, meaning that cities outside the region’s core are likely to see

higher levels of growth and, within cities, more growth will be accommodated outside PDAs

than in the other scenarios.” This scenario, then, would result in a shift of development forecast

for suburban towns like Novato that did not elect to adopt PDAs. It would also likely result in

better access to competitive transportation funds which would otherwise be targeted to PDAs.

Scenario 2: “Targets future population and employment growth to locally-identified PDAs

throughout the region, with an emphasis on growth in medium-sized cities with access to the

region’s major rail services such as BART and Caltrain. Outside the PDAs, this scenario sees

modest infill development, along with a small amount of greenfield growth.” This scenario is

most similar to that adopted in Plan Bay Area 2013, which resulted in lower development

projected for Novato and, as a result, much lower RHNA numbers.

Scenario 3: “Concentrates future population and employment growth in the locally-identified

PDAs within the Bay Area’s three largest cities: San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland. The

amount of growth outside these areas is minimal, with limited infill development in PDAs and

no greenfield development.” This scenarios would likely result in the least amount of new

development programed in suburban locations.

After refinement of growth projections and modeling of transportation options, ABAG and MTC

will return to present the results of their analysis of the 3 scenarios, at which time the City will

have an opportunity examine the projected impacts on Novato and to formally comment on the

land use scenarios and proposed transportation improvements. This City review will likely occur

this summer.

COMMENT ON GROWTH PROJECTION RANGES

ABAG requested that local planning departments comment on draft ranges of projected job and

household increases to the year 2040 for their jurisdiction, with a request to respond by the end of

2015. Due to Novato’s change in councilmembers, we requested an extension to have an

opportunity for ABAG to make an offered presentation of the PBA 2040 process, and to have the

Council formally direct a response to ABAG.

Staff has recently completed growth projections for our General Plan update that will be utilized

in preparing the environmental impact report for the Draft Plan. This effort provides us with

detailed local growth projections considering previously approved projects, applications in

process, likely development potential of underutilized properties, Council feedback on General

Plan Focus Areas and environmental factors (e.g., density/intensity reductions for hillside sites).

A comparison of our General Plan projections with those of the existing PBA 2013 and the Low

and High ranges being considered for PBA 2040 indicates that our projections are very similar to

PBA 2013 and the LOW draft projections for both jobs and households:

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Since ABAG has requested that cities submit “technical responses” (e.g., numerically based

comments) to the draft growth projections for consideration by ABAG for subsequent refinement,

staff would suggest that our General Plan growth projections be shared with ABAG staff in a letter

response, suggesting that the Low estimate of job and household growth in Novato to 2040 is more

consistent with the City’s General Plan projections and would better represent likely future growth

in Novato. A draft letter to this effect is attached.

FISCAL IMPACT

None.

ALTERNATIVES

1. Direct staff to prepare a letter responding to ABAG’s draft projections for PBA 2040,

incorporating the City’s General Plan projections for comparison.

2. Provide alternate direction to staff to incorporate into a response letter to ABAG.

3. Choose not to send a comment letter.

ATTACHMENTS

1. Draft comment letter from Community Development Director to ABAG

2. Scenario Planning Approach and Concepts – ABAG handout

3. Preliminary Growth Ranges for Marin County – ABAG document

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February 3, 2016

Miriam Chion

Planning & Research Director

Association of Bay Area Governments

101 8th Street

Oakland, CA 94607

Dear Ms. Chion:

Thank you for the opportunity to provide feedback on the Plan Bay Area 2040 draft

preliminary growth projections for Novato. We greatly appreciate the need for thoughtful

planning on how to accommodate future growth, particularly as the Bay Area’s economy is

expanding rapidly and housing costs continue to escalate.

The City of Novato is located 25 miles north of San Francisco. Most of our residents work

in Novato (34%) or in other communities in Marin County (31%).1 The City has been

somewhat removed from the impacts of the booming technology industry, which are most

clearly being experienced in San Francisco, the Peninsula and the South Bay communities.

Although we have seen asking rents increase nearly 9% over the last year and average

single family home prices increase almost 7%, Novato’s housing costs have not risen as

dramatically as they have in San Francisco and in the southern Marin communities.2, 3

Novato remains the most affordable community in Marin County in which to rent or

purchase a home.

While our unemployment rate is low (3.2%) and our economy continues to improve, we

still have significant retail vacancies and an office vacancy rate of 23%.4, 5 The economy is

good in Novato, but not expanding rapidly, due in part to the City’s location and

demographics. The City has embarked on a marketing campaign to attract tech companies,

particularly in the bio/life sciences industry, to Novato. While we have had some successes,

it is too early to determine if demand for new office space will ultimately justify

development of the new office and R&D space included in our growth forecasts below.

The median age of our residents is 44.1 years, slightly lower than Marin County’s average

age of 45.1 years.6 The Department of Finance projects that the Marin County population

will continue to age over the next 25 years, with the senior cohort increasing its share of the

overall population from 17% in 2010 to 27% in 2030 and 26% in 2040, before finally

receding to more historic norms.7 We expect a similar pattern in Novato, with the senior

cohort increasing from 16% to 25% of the population by 2040.

As a result, we project modest growth in Novato that reflects the aging population. Over the

next 25 years, we expect homes that are currently housing empty nesters will slowly turn

over to families with school-age children, and that our existing housing stock will be able to

absorb many of the new residents in the process. Approximately 68% of our existing

housing stock has 3 or more bedrooms, but only 37% of our existing households have 3 or

more persons, indicating that many of our residents are living in houses that are larger than

they need.8 We expect this imbalance to correct itself as new job opportunities attract

families to Novato.

1 Census Transportation Planning Products, 2006-2010 Five-year estimates. 2 RealFacts, Novato Market Overview, 3rd Quarter 2015. 3 Marin County Assessor, November 2013 through October 2015. 4 California Employment Development Division, Monthly Labor Force Data for Cities and Census Designated Places, November 2015 – Preliminary (data not seasonally adjusted). 5 Newmark Cornish & Carey, Marin County 3Q15 Office Market Research. 6 American Community Survey 3-year Estimates, 2013 7 California Department of Finance, Report P-1 (age) State and County Population Projections by

Major Age Groups, December 15, 2014. 8 American Community Survey 3-year Estimates, 2013.

922 Machin Avenue Novato, CA 94945 415/899-8900 FAX 415/899-8213 www.novato.org Mayor Pat Eklund Mayor Pro Tem Denise Athas Councilmembers Pam Drew Josh Fryday Eric Lucan City Manager Michael S. Frank

DRAFT

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Update of the City’s General Plan

Over the past 2 ½ years the City has been studying areas that are good candidates for revitalization and/or

vacant infill sites that can accommodate new or additional growth. This process included a

comprehensive inventory of all unimproved parcels that are currently designated for commercial or multi-

family use. This effort identified just 21 vacant commercial and multi-family sites throughout the City,

ranging in size from 0.14 to 39 acres, with a median parcel size of 1.85 acres. The City is currently

considering land use changes for some of these parcels. However, since only 2.4% of Novato’s land is

designated for commercial or mixed-use, and only 5% is designated for business or industrial land use,

the City is only considering shifting land use designations within these categories. Retaining existing land

zoned for commercial and business/professional office use remains a City priority.

The City’s planning process has focused on four specific areas, as described below.

North, North Redwood Boulevard Corridor, extending north of San Marin Drive to the City’s

northerly boundary with Olompali State Park. The mile-long corridor contains most of the City’s

remaining vacant commercially zoned land as well as the new San Marin SMART rail station. The

centerpiece of development in the area on the eastern slope of Mount Burdell is the world-renowned

Buck Institute for Research on Aging. At the southern end of the study area, along San Marin Drive,

is the 711,000 square-foot office complex known by its former principal tenant, Fireman’s Fund. The

City is considering resdesignating and rezoning three parcels from Light Industrial/Office to

Business/Professional Office in order to support the community’s vision for the area as a life sciences

industry hub.

North Redwood Boulevard Corridor is a 20-acre area, bounded by Olive Avenue to the south and

San Marin Drive to the north. The area is considered one of the last major re-developable areas in

Marin County, and with its proximity to Highway 101and the new North Novato SMART rail station,

could be very attractive for new investment and revitalization. Two of the major land uses in the

corridor, Shamrock Materials and Dairymen’s Milling, have generally ceased operations and wish to

sell their properties for redevelopment. The community’s vision for the area includes a vibrant,

pedestrian-oriented retail development with gathering places, restaurants and entertainment in place

of the existing commercial and industrial uses. The City is considering some land use redesignations

and rezonings to promote retail and mixed use development.

Northwest Quadrant, one of the historic neighborhoods of Downtown Novato, is almost completely

built out with single and multi-family buildings, but anticipated revisions to existing development

standards could incentivize some reinvestment in the neighborhood. These units are expected to be

small and could provide ideal housing opportunities for empty nesters seeking to downsize.

Downtown. The City is considering redesignating and rezoning parcels on Redwood Boulevard

between Vallejo and Olive Avenue to allow residential mixed use. Redevelopment of the Downtown

could include new second story housing above ground-floor commercial uses and some additional

commercial development.

Development Projections

The City has developed household and job projections, as shown in the table below. These projections are

based on the results of the focus area studies, analysis of vacant and underutilized commercial and multi-

family parcels, and housing potential identified in the Available Land Inventory of the City’s 2015-2023

Housing Element. The projections also include all current development applications and proposals. A

local inventory identifying projected development potential is attached.

General Plan Jobs and Household Projections

2010

Existing1

2015

Estimate

2040

Estimate

Jobs 20,890 22,4652 25,304

Households 20,279 20,8903 21,796

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1 ABAG Plan Bay Area 2013 2 Marin Economic Forum, utilizing US Census Bureau Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics

(LEHD) and California Employment Development Department Employment & Labor Force data 3 2014 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates

Based on the City’s detailed analysis (see attached summary) and understanding of the local real estate

market, our conclusion is that Novato’s likely development potential over the next 25 years is most closely

aligned with the Low Range of the Draft Jobs and Household Growth Projections for Plan Bay Area 2040

as demonstrated below:

2040 Growth Forecasts

PBA 2040

LOW

City of Novato

Forecast

PBA 2040

HIGH

Jobs 24,640 25,304 29,520

Households 21,330 21,796 25,860

Sincerely,

Robert M. Brown

Community Development Director

cc: City Manager, City Council, Planning Commission, City Clerk

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Employee Projections

Project/Address Square

Feet Category

Sq Ft/ Employee

Employees

Approved

Hanna Ranch – commercial 34,621 Regional Retail 857 40

Hanna Ranch – commercial 10,000 Other Retail/Services 344 29

Hanna Ranch – hotel 70,573 Hotel/Motel 1,152 61

516 Hospital Drive (Hamilton Hospital) 36,064 Other Retail/Services 344 105

700 Hangar Avenue Infill (8 Hamilton Landing) 56,000 Low-rise office 288 194

Hanna Ranch - office 21,190 Low-rise office 288 74

In Process

933 “C” Street (North Bay Children’s Center) 6,769 Other Retail/Services 344 20

5400 Hanna Ranch Rd. (McPhail’s) 59,600 Light Manufacturing 439 136

Hamilton Fields 50,000 Commercial

Recreation 51

7533 and 7537 Redwood Blvd (Atherton Place) 5,630 Other Retail/Services 344 16

Projected

North Redwood Blvd. Corridor without Water District and Bus Yard Redevelopment (from Focus Area Study)

North Redwood Corridor (East of Redwood-South) 130,000 Regional Retail 857 152

Remove existing buildings -17,948 Warehouse 814 -22

North Redwood Corridor (East of Redwood-North) 45,000 Regional Retail 857 53

Remove existing buildings -15,407 Warehouse 814 -19

Olive/Redwood 17,000 Other Retail/Services 344 49

North, North Redwood Boulevard Corridor (from Focus Area Study)

Buck Institute (approved) 130,000 Research facilities 996 131

Vacant sites 30,000 Other Retail/Services 344 87

40,000 Hotel/Motel 1,152 35

244,000 Low-rise office 288 847

Underutilized site (Birkenstock) 135,365 R&D/flex space 344 394

Other Sites

Downtown 20,000 Other Retail/Services 344 58

Hamilton (incl. School District master plan) 80,000 Other Retail/Services 344 233

Other sites 40,000 Other Retail/Services 344 116

SUBTOTAL 2,839

Existing Jobs 2015 22,465

TOTAL 2040 25,304

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Novato Household Projections

Built 2015

Canyon Green 16

Walnut Meadows/840 McClay Rd 12

Under Construction

Fourth St. Homes (Habitat for Humanity) 10

Rudnick Estates 22

Oma Village (Homeward Bound) 14

Approved

State Access Senior Apartments (801 State Access) 48

516 Hospital Drive (Hamilton Hospital) 48

Buck Institute 130

In Process

Main Gate and "C" (Hamilton Square; 970 C Street ) 31

Landing Court (AHO site #2) 34

1787 Grant Ave. (AHO site #1) 35

7533 and 7537 Redwood Blvd (Atherton Place) 55

7711 Redwood Blvd., Laurel Ridge Senior Apts (AHO #3) 104

Hamilton Field Senior Housing 16

Bahia Heights Subdivision 9

Development Projections

North Redwood Blvd. Corridor Focus Area Study 15

Northwest Quadrant neighborhood 10

Multi-family housing (including Housing Element sites) 115

Mixed Use in Downtown (Housing Element sites) 70

Senior assisted living units 60

Miscellaneous single family 30

Miscellaneous second units 60

Total New Housing Units 2040 944

Less 4% Vacancy Rate (38)

Total New Households 2040 906

Existing Households 20,890

TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS 2040 21,796

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Scenario Planning Approach Background In July 2013, MTC and ABAG adopted Plan Bay Area 2013 as the Bay Area’s first Regional Transportation Plan/ Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS). The plan responds to State Law (SB 375) requiring the preparation of an integrated land-use and transportation plan to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. A lot has changed in the Bay Area since the Plan’s adoption, as the region’s economy is growing rapidly and housing costs continue to increase, and many communities have recently completed land use plans that envision how to accommodate future growth.

MTC and ABAG are required to update the RTP/SCS every four years. In spring 2015, MTC and ABAG began a limited and focused update of Plan Bay Area 2013, called Plan Bay Area 2040 (PBA 2040). From late April through May, a series of open houses were conducted across the region to introduce the public to the PBA 2040 update process, seek comments on goals and targets, and receive feedback on local priorities across a wide range of issue areas. The comments and feedback were compiled and shared with the Regional Advisory Working Group (RAWG) as well as MTC and ABAG other committees and working groups, in July 2015. Meanwhile, over the past several months, MTC and ABAG have presented information regarding PBA 2040’s proposed Goals and Performance Targets, Regional Forecasts, and Project Performance Assessment to the RAWG, the MTC Planning and ABAG Administrative Committees, and various other committees and working groups. With the Goals and Performance Targets up for adoption this fall and the Regional Forecasts underway, the next milestone is to develop and evaluate regional scenarios that integrate land use and transportation strategies.

What is Scenario Planning? Scenario planning is a common way for organizations such as MTC and ABAG to analyze and communicate the effects of different combinations of land use and transportation strategies on regional goals and targets. Scenarios can help articulate alternative future paths and provide information to help partner agencies, local jurisdictions, and the general public understand trade-offs. Scenarios can be constructed to modify the status quo, analyze and evaluate strategies that may be practically or politically challenging, and engage the region in a common dialogue about planning for our common future.

Constructing and communicating scenarios generally requires adherence to the following principles:

• Develop a small number of scenarios. A good regional planning process should advance a short list of coherent scenarios that can be clearly communicated. This can be challenging, because the strategies underpinning scenarios can be arranged in an infinite number of ways.

• Construct a preferred scenario. Since an infinite number of scenarios can theoretically be constructed, it is not appropriate to conduct a “winner takes all” approach to scenario planning. Rather, a “preferred scenario” can incorporate some of the best ideas from each scenario alternative. This can be challenging, because most people naturally gravitate toward voting for a favorite scenario out of the alternatives presented.

• Balance sophistication with simplicity. Scenarios should be meaningful for the most engaged and sophisticated observers, but also be easy to communicate to a broad spectrum of people around the region. This can be challenging, because scenarios may seem overly simplistic to some audiences or cryptic to other audiences.

Scenario Planning in Plan Bay Area 2013 For Plan Bay Area 2013, MTC and ABAG conducted extensive outreach to develop multiple rounds of scenario development and evaluation. This led to the development and adoption of the preferred land use distribution and transportation investment strategy (preferred scenario). Once the preferred scenario was adopted, another set of scenarios was developed and evaluated as alternatives within Plan Bay Area 2013’s Environmental Impact

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Report (EIR). These multiple rounds of scenario development required a tremendous amount of time and effort on the part of MTC and ABAG, partner agencies, local jurisdictions, working groups and committees. In retrospect, this process may also have created confusion due to the large number of scenario alternatives (13 alternatives in total). As a result, in early project scoping meetings for PBA 2040, MTC and ABAG proposed a simplified approach to scenario planning as described in the following sections.

Recommended approach to PBA 2040 Scenario Development As described in a July 2014 memo to the MTC Planning Committee and ABAG Administrative Committees, MTC and ABAG’s approach for this RTP/SCS will be to conduct a limited and focused update, building off the core framework established in Plan Bay Area 2013. One key difference between Plan Bay Area 2013 and its update – PBA 2040 – is that PBA 2040 does not include the Regional Housing Need Allocation (RHNA), which will be included again in the 2021 RTP/SCS. The RHNA process required a great deal of outreach and planning work that will not be necessary for PBA 2040. In addition, this will not be the region’s first RTP/SCS, so we can build on lessons learned in the first integrated transportation and land use planning effort.

The MTC Public Participation Plan, adopted in February 2015, lays out PBA 2040’s scenario development approach. This approach can be summarized as follows:

• One round of scenario analysis and evaluation will be conducted, and a maximum of three scenarios will be developed;

• The scenarios will be constructed in an effort to achieve PBA 2040’s goals and performance targets;

• The scenarios will be designed to inform the selection of a preferred scenario; and,

• The same scenario alternatives will be carried over into the Environmental Impact Report (EIR) process. Additionally, in order to analyze and evaluate the scenario alternatives, each scenario output will include, at a minimum:

• Land use o Total jobs by PDA and city; o Total housing units and households by PDA and city; and o Total population by PDA and city.

• Transportation o Investments by mode and purpose; and, o GHG and other travel model outputs for performance targets assessment.

Specific Process and Timeline for Developing and Evaluating Scenarios The scenario development and evaluation process will occur over the next nine months, with MTC and ABAG adopting a preferred scenario in June 2016. MTC and ABAG, using input from the public workshops held in Spring 2015, partner agencies, working groups, and committees will develop and evaluate three alternative scenarios composed of land use and transportation strategies.

The scenario planning process will have three phases:

• Scenario Development. In October, MTC and ABAG staff will host scenario development workshops with the RAWG and ABAG Regional Planning Committee (RPC) to kick off the scenario planning process; gather input on the draft scenario concepts; and identify potential jobs, housing and transportation strategies to support the scenario concepts. These workshops will help shape the development of the three scenario alternative concepts and their respective strategies. Following the October workshops, MTC and ABAG staff will present the draft scenario concepts in November to the MTC Planning and ABAG Administrative Committees, ABAG Executive Board, and other committees and working groups as appropriate, for additional feedback. In February and March 2016, MTC and ABAG staff will present to the RAWG, RPC, the MTC Planning and ABAG Administrative Committees, and the ABAG Executive Board defined scenario alternatives that show

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different options for distributing forecasted housing, population, and employment growth, as well as the high performing projects of the project performance assessment and the costs to maintain and operate our existing transportation system.

• Scenario Evaluation. Following the November 2015 joint meeting of the MTC Planning and ABAG Administrative Committees, MTC and ABAG staff will begin an iterative process of scenario evaluation and refinement of each scenario’s land use and transportation strategies to meet regional goals and targets. MTC and ABAG staff will use regional models, described in more detail in the following section, to develop and analyze the scenarios. In March 2016, MTC and ABAG staff will present to the RAWG, the MTC Planning and ABAG Administrative Committees, and other committees and working groups as appropriate, the results of the performance targets and equity assessments for each of the three scenario alternatives. In April 2016, MTC and ABAG will host public workshops to discuss the scenario alternatives and the results of their evaluation.

• Scenario Adoption. Following the April 2016 public workshops, MTC and ABAG staff will create a draft preferred scenario based on feedback from the public, local jurisdictions, MTC and ABAG’s partner agencies, working groups, and committees. The draft preferred scenario will incorporate strategies that best achieve the adopted PBA 2040 goals and performance targets and equity metrics. In May 2016, MTC and ABAG staff will present the draft preferred scenario to the RAWG, the MTC Planning and ABAG Administrative Committees, and ABAG Executive Board. Their input will be used to refine the preferred scenario before the MTC Commission and ABAG Executive Board are asked to adopt the final preferred scenario at a joint June 2016 meeting.

Figure 1

Modeling Tools MTC and ABAG staff will use modeling tools to assist in the development and analysis of scenarios. The integration of the regional land use and travel demand models allows for analysis of how land use policies will affect transportation outcomes and how transportation projects and policies will affect land use outcomes. The models allow us to perform our targets assessment for each scenario.

• UrbanSim. This regional land use forecasting model relies on regional control totals of jobs, housing, and population, developed and adopted by ABAG, to analyze the effects of land use and transportation strategies on the forecasted regional development pattern. The model simulates the interactions of households, businesses, developers, and governments within the urban market. The model will produce land use outputs, including the forecasted location of new jobs and housing for each scenario alternative. MTC and ABAG staff will evaluate the model outputs through an extensive planning process involving input by local jurisdictions.

• Travel Model One. The regional travel demand model relies on UrbanSim’s forecasted regional development pattern to analyze the significance of transportation impacts and estimate travel outcomes, including vehicle miles traveled, vehicle hours of delay, and accessibility for each scenario alternative.

Deve

lopm

ent Fall/Winter '15/16

•Workshops: October '15 (RAWG & RPC)

•Scenario Concepts: November '15 (MTC Planning and ABAG Administrative Committees & ABAG Executive Board)

•Scenario Alternatives: February '16 (RAWG, RPC, MTC Planning and ABAG Administrative Committees & ABAG Executive Board in March 2016)

Eval

uatio

n Spring 16 •Evaluation Results: •March: Evaluation Results

(RAWG & MTC Planning and ABAG Administrative Committee & ABAG Executive Board)

•April: Evaluation Results (Public Workshops)

Adop

tion Spring/Summer '16

•Draft Preferred Scenario: May '16 Draft Preferred Scenario (RAWG, MTC Planning and ABAG Administrative Committees & ABAG Executive Board)

•Final Preferred Scenario: June '16 Final Preferred Scenario (MTC Commission and ABAG Executive Board)

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Common Assumptions for All Scenarios There are a number of core assumptions that will stay the same across different scenarios:

• Regional Forecast – Total Jobs, Housing, and Population (Control Totals). ABAG’s adopted regional forecast will set control totals for the total jobs, housing, and population in the region. This total number will not vary across scenarios.

• Regional Housing Need Allocation (RHNA). In 2013, ABAG adopted the Final Regional Housing Need Plan for the San Francisco Bay Area: 2014-2022, including the final housing unit allocations, by income, to local jurisdictions in the region. The three scenario alternatives will reflect the adopted 2013 RHNA, and will not vary across scenarios. The next RHNA process will occur in coordination with the 2021 RTP/SCS.

• Regional PDA and PCA Framework. PDAs and PCAs are locally nominated and their geography will not vary across scenarios; however, the extent to which growth is emphasized in PDAs and land in PCAs is conserved may be considered as strategies.

• Regional Transportation Revenue Sources. MTC develops a revenue forecast that accounts for all reasonably assumed revenue sources to 2040. The total amount of revenues and sources will not vary across scenarios; however, certain revenue enhancements may be considered as strategies.

• Regional Committed Transportation Network. The committed transportation network represents the existing transportation infrastructure and proposed transportation improvements that are fully funded and under construction. The committed transportation network will not vary across scenarios.

Strategies Varying Across Scenarios The differences in scenario alternatives will be driven by alternative distributions of strategies, which generally comprise a short set of land use and housing policies, transportation policies, and transportation investments. While not an exhaustive list, the strategies generally encompass the following actions:

• Land Use Strategies that change a community’s capacity for new development or incentivize a particular type or location of growth, such as changes to zoning, fees and subsidies, incentives and growth boundaries.

• Transportation Strategies o Transportation Investments- includes strategies for different types of transportation investments by

category (expansion, maintenance, state of good repair, etc.), and mode (highway, transit, bike/ped, etc.), and programs.

o Transportation Policies- includes strategies to manage transportation demand, systems operations, parking policies, and taxes and fees.

o Climate Strategies- includes technological advancements (e.g. clean vehicles) and incentive programs to encourage travel options that help meet GHG emissions reduction targets.

It is important to recognize that the distribution of different strategies within initial scenarios does not constitute a staff proposal or recommendation. This distribution is done simply to illustrate tradeoffs between alternative growth patterns and infrastructure investments and serve as a building block for developing a preferred scenario.

Next Steps Stakeholder engagement will help shape the strategies across each of the three scenario alternatives. The October ’15 scenario workshops are the first opportunity for input.

Figure 2

Strategies

Oct'15

Draft Scenario Concepts

Nov '15

Draft Scenario Alternatives

Feb'16

Evaluation & Refinement

Dec'15 - Mar'16

Public Outreach

Apr'16

Draft Preferred Scenario

May'16

Preferred Scenario

Jun'16

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Draft Scenario Concepts Narratives ABAG and MTC are beginning the process of developing three land use and transportation scenarios to inform discussions about the strategic update of Plan Bay Area 2040. The following draft scenario concept narratives show different options for how the Bay Area can grow and change over time in ways that help us meet our goals for a more prosperous, sustainable, and equitable region. A vital part of the Plan Bay Area 2040 strategic update, these scenarios represent three alternative Bay Area futures based on distinct land use development patterns and transportation investment strategies. Once refined, these scenario concept narratives will provide a framework for our scenario alternatives, which will be developed, modeled, and evaluated to understand the effects of different combinations of land use and transportation strategies on our shared goals and targets.

Similar to Plan Bay Area 2013, locally-identified Priority Development Areas (PDAs) and Priority Conservation Areas (PCAs) are the foundation for the scenario concepts. Growth is directed to PDAs in each scenario concept in recognition of the fact that PDAs have been identified by local governments as areas where new homes and jobs can be accommodated near transit. However, the extent to which population and job growth is emphasized in PDAs varies among the three draft scenario concepts, as does the amount of greenfield development expected. Of note, future growth is not assigned to areas that have been adopted as PCAs.

Scenario 1 Scenario 1 targets future population and employment growth to the downtowns of every city in the Bay Area to foster a region of moderately-sized, integrated town centers. As in the other scenarios, most growth will be in locally-identified PDAs, but this scenario offers the most dispersed growth pattern, meaning that cities outside the region’s core are likely to see higher levels of growth and, within cities, more growth will be accommodated outside of PDAs than in other scenarios.

To accommodate this growth, investments, including resources for affordable housing, will be dispersed across PDAs, other transit-proximate locations outside PDAs, and underutilized transportation corridors across the region. This scenario comes closest to resembling a traditional suburban pattern, with an increase in greenfield development to accommodate the dispersed growth pattern. While an emphasis on multi-family and mixed-use development in downtowns will provide opportunities for households of all incomes to live near a mix of jobs, shopping, services, and other amenities, this scenario also assumes that many people will drive significant distances by automobile to get to work.

To support this scenario’s dispersed growth pattern, transportation investment priorities will largely embrace new technologies and innovative strategies to manage travel demand. To accommodate increased reliance on automobiles for commuting, this scenario assumes a vast expansion of high-occupancy toll lanes on all regional highways, the institution of variable pricing, and highway widening at key bottlenecks. Additionally, the region will adopt transformational investments like automated buses and private vehicles. Bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure will create a network of regional trails and bike lanes, including a robust regional network of bike sharing. To support industry and goods movement, the scenario will focus largely on “smart operations and deliveries”— technology and operations to reduce congestion and increase safety on urban and rural roads.

To reach our climate goals, this scenario sees heavy investments in technology advancements, clean vehicles, and incentives and to pursue near-zero and zero emissions strategies wherever feasible. The mobility needs of seniors, persons with disabilities, and low-income communities will be addressed most centrally by “mobility management” solutions to link individuals to travel options that meet their specific needs, as well as the provision of demand-responsive strategies by the public, non-profit, and private sectors.

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Page 2 of 2

Scenario 2 Building from the final, adopted Plan Bay Area 2013, Scenario 2 targets future population and employment growth to locally-identified PDAs throughout the region, with an emphasis on growth in medium-sized cities with access to the region’s major rail services, such as BART and Caltrain. Outside the PDAs, this scenario sees modest infill development, along with a small amount of greenfield growth. As these communities grow over the next 25 years, compact development and strategic transportation investments will provide residents and workers access to a mix of housing, jobs, shopping, services, and amenities in proximity to transit traditionally offered by more urban environments. Resources for affordable housing will be dispersed across the Bay Area, with some concentration in PDAs to support the development of affordable housing where the most population and employment growth is targeted.

To support this scenario's growth pattern, transportation investments will prioritize maintenance of existing infrastructure. The region’s transit system will be modernized and expanded along key corridors to improve commutes and add capacity. Investments in bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure, including the regional bike sharing network, will support the creation of more walkable and bikeable downtowns. While this scenario would see limited expansion of the region’s roadways, it will use travel demand strategies, including an expansion of the regional express lanes network to use existing roadways more efficiently. To support industry and goods movement, this scenario will support environmentally sustainable investments at our key global gateways to create local jobs, protect the community, and attract international commerce.

To protect the climate, this scenario prioritizes a number of innovative transportation initiatives, including car sharing and near-zero and zero emission goods movement technologies. The mobility and accessibility needs of seniors, persons with disabilities, and low-income communities will be addressed through continued investments in transit operations, transit capital, and a continued focus on “mobility management” solutions to link individuals to travel options that meet their specific needs.

Scenario 3 Scenario 3 concentrates future population and employment growth in the locally-identified PDAs within the Bay Area’s three largest cities: San Jose, San Francisco and Oakland. Neighboring cities that are already well-connected to these three cities by transit will also see increases in population and employment growth, particularly in their locally-identified PDAs. The amount of growth outside these areas is minimal, with limited infill development in PDAs and no greenfield development. Growth in the three biggest cities will require substantial investment to support transformational changes to accommodate households of all incomes. This scenario will prioritize strategies to make these existing urban neighborhoods even more compact and vibrant, and enable residents and workers to easily take transit, bike or walk to clusters of jobs, stores, services, and other amenities. Resources for affordable housing will likewise be directed to the cities taking on the most growth.

To support this scenario's big city-focused growth pattern, the transportation infrastructure within and directly serving the region’s core will be maintained to a state of good repair, modernized to boost service and improve commutes and capacity, and expanded to meet increased demand. While these transit investments will take priority, the roadway network will also require significant investments, such as a regional express lane network to prioritize direct access to the three biggest cities and regional express bus service to increase connections to the region’s core. Bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure will be dramatically expanded in these cities, including a robust network of bike sharing. To support industry and goods movement, investments at the Port of Oakland will be ramped up quickly to enable more efficiency and to mitigate the impacts of Port activities on nearby communities.

To reach our climate goals, this scenario will focus technological and financial incentive strategies in and around the three biggest cities, which will accommodate a significant increase in population and travel demand. The mobility and accessibility needs of seniors, persons with disabilities, and low-income communities will be addressed by directing resources for a robust increase in transit operations and capital within the region’s core.

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Early2017

Draft Plan and Draft EIR• ReleaseDraftPlanBay

Area2040andDraftEnvironmentalImpactReportforpubliccomment

• ConductpublicworkshopstosolicitinputonDraftPlanBayArea2040anddraftDraftEnvironmentalImpactReport

• AdoptPlanBayArea2040andfinalEIR,June2017

Preferred Scenario Selection• Releasescenarioand

targetsevaluation

• Conductpublicworkshopstosolicitinputonalternativescenariosforhousing,jobsandtransportationinvestments

• Adoptpreferredscenariobasedonpublicinput,feedbackfromkeystakeholders,andtechnicalanalysis,June2016

Early2016

Scenario Development• GenerateupdatedPlanBayArea2040regionalforecasts

forjobs,housing,population,traveldemandandtransportationrevenue

• AssesstransportationprojectsandprogramstobeincludedinPlanBayArea2040

• Createpreliminaryscenarioconceptsforhousing,jobsandtransportationinvestments

• Solicitfeedbackfromkeystakeholderstorefineandimprovepreliminaryscenarioconceptsforhousing,jobsandtransportationinvestments

Late2015

Policy Development• Conductedopen

housestosolicitpublicinputonupdatedgoalsandperformancetargetsforPlanBayArea2040

• MTCCommissionersandABAG’sExecutiveBoardmembersconsideredandapprovedapartiallistofPlanBayArea2040goalsandtargets.MoreactionexpectedinNovember2015.

Early2015

FeedbackonthepreliminaryscenarioconceptscollectedduringthismeetingwillhelpinformPlanBayArea2040alternativescenariosand,ultimately,thefinalpreferredscenario.

Scenario Development Process

Public Workshops and Outreach

12 3

RefineScenarioFramework PreferredScenario PlanBayArea2040

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A S S O C I A T I O N O F B A Y A R E A G O V E R N M E N T S Representing City and County Governments of the San Francisco Bay Area

Joseph P. Bort MetroCenter, 101 8th Street, Oakland, California 94607-4756 P.O. Box 2050, Oakland, California 94604-2050 Phone: (510) 464-7900 Fax: (510) 464-7985 www.abag.ca.gov info@abag.ca.gov

Preliminary Growth Range Overview Greetings Planning Directors, Please find attached a table presenting Preliminary Growth Ranges for jobs and households by jurisdiction and PDA. We currently estimate that the jobs and households distributions in the land use scenarios that will we begin developing this fall will lie within these ranges. To date, these Preliminary Growth Ranges take into account:

1. The 2040 job and household numbers adopted in Plan Bay Area 2013

2. Most adjustments to PDA boundaries since Plan Bay Area 2013

3. Preliminary new regional totals, as will be released for public review in December

4. Local input received to date

5. Preliminary results from the PDA Feasibility Assessment, scheduled for completion in October, that assesses the physical, policy, regulatory, political receptivity, and financial feasibility of growth in the 65 PDAs that represent the majority of projected growth for the region

6. A preliminary analysis of select factors likely to affect future growth such as overall access to jobs and services by transit and auto; local employment; an indicator closely associated with local school quality, community safety, health, and amenities; and new developments completed and in progress

You will note that, in general, these numbers are higher than Plan Bay Area 2013. Revised regional forecast totals are not yet finalized, released, or adopted. A complete explanation and rationale will accompany their release; however, at this point we can generally characterize this increase as being due primarily to strong job and population growth over the last five years. Scenario building will progress over the fall, incorporating policy and technical input, and leading to public release of draft scenarios in March for discussion. You can find a detailed description of the development process and schedule elsewhere in the packet we are sending you today. Your input is welcome at any time, but technical input received by the end of December will be the most useful for building the initial draft scenarios. As always we look forward to your thoughtful input. Sincerely, Miriam Chion Planning and Research Director

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DRAFT

Plan Bay Area 2040 Jobs & Household Growth Ranges 

Marin CountyJobs Households

Jurisdiction name PBA 2013 Low High  PBA 2013 Low High Belvedere Total 480            500            600            970                 1,000        1,200       Corte Madera Total 8,260         8,300        10,000      4,080              4,200        4,700       Fairfax Total 1,820         1,800        2,200        3,620              3,700        4,000       Larkspur Total 7,810         7,900        9,500        6,450              6,700        7,800       Mill Valley Total 6,790         6,900        8,200        6,540              6,800        7,900       Novato Total 24,390       24,600      28,900      21,450            22,200      25,500     Ross Total 590            600            700            860                 900            1,000       San Anselmo Total 4,360         4,400        5,300        5,530              5,700        6,400       San Rafael Total 44,960       45,400      50,500      26,490            27,000      31,000     San Rafael Downtown 10,480       10,600      11,800      3,830              3,700        4,000       San Rafael Non‐PDA 34,480       34,800      38,700      22,660            23,300      27,000     

Sausalito Total 7,640         7,700        10,000      4,470              4,600        5,300       Tiburon Total 2,690         2,700        3,300        4,000              4,100        4,600       Marin County Total 19,360       19,500      23,200      27,590            28,800      31,500     Marin County Urbanized 101 Corridor 3,900         3,900        4,700        1,430              1,500        1,600       Marin County Non‐PDA 15,460       15,600      18,600      26,150            27,300      29,900     

County Total Total 129,150     NA NA 112,050         NA NA

ABAG Confidential 9/24/2015 18