Nov. 8, 2006 UNFCCC COP12/MOP2 UNON, Nairobi Shuzo Nishioka
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Transcript of Nov. 8, 2006 UNFCCC COP12/MOP2 UNON, Nairobi Shuzo Nishioka
Global Challenges towards a Low Carbon Society (LCS)
through Sustainable Development (SD)Introduction
Nov. 8, 2006UNFCCC COP12/MOP2
UNON, Nairobi
Shuzo NishiokaNational Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
Surface Air Temperature Change (1900=0 oC)CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan
“ “Low-carbon societies are necessary to Low-carbon societies are necessary to avoid dangerous climate change.”avoid dangerous climate change.”
Relationship between human-induced GHG emissions, atmospheric GHG concentration, and increase in global mean temperature.
(Calculated by AIM/Impact[policy] Model)
BaU GHG-475ppm GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm
0
5
10
15
20
25
19
90
200
0
20
10
202
0
203
0
20
40
205
0
20
60
20
70
208
0
20
90
2100
年
温室
効果
ガス
排出
量 (
二酸
化炭
素換
算:G
tC/ 年
)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1990
200
0
20
1020
20
2030
20
40
2050
20
60
2070
2080
209
02
100
21
1021
20
213
0
2140
215
0
年
気温
上昇
(19
90年
=0.
6 ℃)
Temperature raise(global average)
Global GHG emissions
GHG475ppm
GHG: Greenhouse gases50% reduction
650550500
BaU
GHG475ppm
Glo
bal
mea
n t
emp
erat
ure
incr
ease
(oC
ab
ove
th
e p
re-i
nd
ust
rial
leve
l)
Year Year
GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
(Gt-
Ceq
)
475
650550500
BaU
Low Carbon Japan:Low Carbon Japan: 20502050NIES NIES reserach project (2004-reserach project (2004-2008) 2008) 60 researchers60 researchers Global Environmental Research ProgrammeGlobal Environmental Research Programme
Deep cut of GHG into 20-40% by 2050What will be the image of the LC society?How to attain the goal?How to change energy demand /supply structure?
脱温暖化2050
http://2050.nies.go.jp
US
Canada
UK
France
China
India
World
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
20
20
20
30
20
40
20
50
CO
2 p
er c
apit
a em
issi
on
s (t
-C/c
ap)
Germany
METI, Japan2030 scenario
Current per capita CO2 emissions and Target
Target for Low Carbon SocietyIB1
IA2
Japan 2050 scenario
US: delay for tech development, global warming business
EU: Initiatives toward LCSJapan: Need long-term vision
Developing countries: earlierguidance toward LCS is key
$200/t-C scenario
Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side eventGlobal Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005
54 participants from 19 countries and 6 international organizations;Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand, Taiwan (China)Africa: South Africa, NigeriaEurope: UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, RussiaLatin America: Brazil, Mexico, ChileNorth America: US, Canada
The first workshop on Japan–UK Joint Research ProjectThe first workshop on Japan–UK Joint Research Project““Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)
through sustainable development” on June 2006, Tokyothrough sustainable development” on June 2006, Tokyo
A second workshop will be held in UK, June 2007
– take actions that are compatible with the principles of sustainable development, ensuring that the development needs of all groups within society are met;
– make an equitable contribution towards the global effort to stabilise atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid dangerous climate change through deep cuts in global emissions;
– demonstrate high levels of energy efficiency, use of low-carbon
– energy sources and production technologies, and sustainable land use practices;
– adopt patterns of consumption and behaviour that are consistent with low levels of GHG emissions.
Toward a Low-Carbon Society, we need to
Programme: Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies
PR. Shukla (Indian Institute of Management, India)
Modeling LCS to Identify Trend-Breaking Options
Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)
National and Global Cooperation to Achieve LCS through SD
David Warrilow (Defra, UK)
Panel discussion :SD-PAMs
Stanford Mwakasonda (University of Cape Town, South Africa)Renewable Energy
Martin Weiss (Federal Environmental Agency, Germany)
Comment
Robert Dixon (IEA) Jonathan Pershing (WRI)Open Discussion
Technology RD&D
Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China)